++The Trump campaign can't get off Alicia Machado. Newt Gingrich proclaimed it is the new Benghazi.
++Trump thinks he has a hot one by demanding President Obama not pardon Hillary for her private e-mail server. He is attacking the aides who got immunity to give testify to the FBI. Unfortunately that is tough to explain to a layperson.
++Fox News is ramping up new interest in the email server.
++Trump says he is good at marriage and now wants to attack Hillary's and Bill's philanderings. The American Spectator which was part of Scaife's Arkansas Project is bringing out all the women. The Trump campaign will now concentrate on Juanita Brodderick, the Maryland Democratic fund-raiser who says she was groped by Bill. Trump has asked his followers to urge him to attack her marriage. If you want to go back to 1990s, be my guess.
++The logic was expressed by Ms. Conway, whose husband was a conservative lawyer active in the impeachment hearing against Clinton. If you can discuss the Cuba connection and things Trump dating back to the 1990s,we can bring up the marriage.
++Trump has massive debt to the Deustche Bank which now must pay billions in fines because of their role in the subprime mortgage crisis. Republican lawyers have argued that this creates a conflict between Trump's private interest and the national interest. Again it raises the issue of putting his business in a private trust and not in the hands of his family.
++Let's admit it, Hillary had a great week of polls, ending September strongly. But the chaos Trump is now sowing could create minefields and an issue that supersedes the myriad legal problems he has.
++There is a subtext of the media actually getting set to help him. RCP, which leans Republican anyway,did not print the PPP polls of swing states because they all favored Hillary. Then late this afternoon, they had a piece how Trump was cutting into Hillary's lead in New Hampshire. No evidence of this.
++But the right is desperate to move the discussion of how badly Trump did in the debates. The admission by the Debate Commission that Trump's mike did short circuit is enough vindication for them to go on the offensive again.
++Trump boasted he had raised $18 million format the debate. But there is little evidence this is true.
++So the Democrats tonight are hysterical in their fund raising which predicts an apocalypse.
Friday, September 30, 2016
Van MORRISON "KEEP ME SINGING."
++The Van Man is back and fine voice. A little mystic chords of memory and flares of his past great songs. One of the better albums in the recent past. Nice production quality.
CBS: ADVANCE VOTIN COULD REACH 40% OF TOTAL VOTE.
++Advance voting looks like it is way up from 2012, when it was 35%. It is surging nationwide, exceeding both the past numbers in North Carolina and Florida.
++The absentee requests are:
Florida 2,542,506
Michigan 772,555.
Iowa 81,985
Pennsylvania 41,381.
Nevada 26,683.
++In Florida ,it is 43% Republicans and 38% Democrats. That is a 5% margin but in 2008, it was 51% for Republicans and 32% for Democrats. Obama won the state by 2%. This looks good for Hillary.
++The absentee requests are:
Florida 2,542,506
Michigan 772,555.
Iowa 81,985
Pennsylvania 41,381.
Nevada 26,683.
++In Florida ,it is 43% Republicans and 38% Democrats. That is a 5% margin but in 2008, it was 51% for Republicans and 32% for Democrats. Obama won the state by 2%. This looks good for Hillary.
JENNIFER RUBIN ON "TRUMP'S 3 A.M. MOMENT"
++She slams Trump again --this time for his tweets starting at 3 A.M. about Alicia Muchado. She shames evangelicals for backing a men without morals or a center. This warns the Republicans that Trump can have a breakdown at any minute and people like Paul Ryan will always be remembered for backing a "lunatic". Fun read in the Washington Post.
++This incident now moves the story through the weekend. Newsmax claims there is a sex tape but others say it was a notorious fake known in the porn industry.
++As a result of the story,there has been an upsurge in the Hispanic community to find places to register to vote.
++The video of Donald's testimony against the restauranteur is out where he says he planned to say Mexican are rapists. A nice double sammy for Trump today.
++This incident now moves the story through the weekend. Newsmax claims there is a sex tape but others say it was a notorious fake known in the porn industry.
++As a result of the story,there has been an upsurge in the Hispanic community to find places to register to vote.
++The video of Donald's testimony against the restauranteur is out where he says he planned to say Mexican are rapists. A nice double sammy for Trump today.
HAPPY 66TH BIRDAY TO BRUCE,NOT THAT ONE, ME!
++Both Bruce Springsteen and I share two things--being from the Jersey Shore and paying more taxes than Donald Trump. Plus I never stiffed a Music Store where my son rented or bought equipment. Times' James Stewart said Trump only has to release his gross revenues and the amount of taxes he pays to satisfy us. Don't hold your breath.
++Birthday gifts--Agnes Martin catalog, Mary Oliver's latest book of poetry and the latest from Van Morrison. Tomorrow, I might get Bruce's memoirs and read about his historic bans--Steel Mill and Sonic Boom. But the Big Man came to play.
++Birthday gifts--Agnes Martin catalog, Mary Oliver's latest book of poetry and the latest from Van Morrison. Tomorrow, I might get Bruce's memoirs and read about his historic bans--Steel Mill and Sonic Boom. But the Big Man came to play.
TRUMP IS SLUMPING
++Josh Marshall writes today that all the battleground polls are coming in for Hillary and that Hillary has an aggregate of 47% to 43.5% in Florida. Trump can't win without Florida and his spokesperson in Florida resigned after the Cuba story broke. Trump has polled 0% in Michigan.
++Trump's infatuation with Putin is costing him support in Pennsylvania and Ohio among the Central Europeans,Ukrainians and Baltic peoples.
++The Chicago Tribune has endorsed Gary Johnson,rather than Trump.
++Howard Stern confirms Trump supported the war in Iraq.
++Trump's infatuation with Putin is costing him support in Pennsylvania and Ohio among the Central Europeans,Ukrainians and Baltic peoples.
++The Chicago Tribune has endorsed Gary Johnson,rather than Trump.
++Howard Stern confirms Trump supported the war in Iraq.
HE DIDN'T EVEN PAY THE CATERER OF HIS WEDDING.
++Trump tweeted four times before 6am on Alicia Muchado. Celebrity sites say there is no sex tape.
++His wedding went perfectly. People loved the food and the waiters were great. At the end he told the caterer that he would have enormous business once people knew he did Trump's wedding so Donald didn't pay him.
++The New York Attorney General has expanded his investigation into the Trump foundation because evidence is that people who owed Trump money paid him through the foundation and got a tax deduction. Also the foundation lacked the basic certificate for soliciting funds from the general public. Even I have that on my desk.
++The Miami Herald says Little Havana is hysterical about the Newsweek report Donald hired a consulting firm to explore doing business in Cuba when there were sanctions. But the kicker is that the consulting firm said he had to make it look "charitable" to get around the sanctions. Marco Rubio expressed dismay and said he might reconsider his endorsement. Others said give Trump the benefit of the doubt since the Donald promised to undo Obama's normalization of relations. 1/2 the registered Republicans in Dade County are Cubans. The Herald said he will hurt Trump among this group.
++His wedding went perfectly. People loved the food and the waiters were great. At the end he told the caterer that he would have enormous business once people knew he did Trump's wedding so Donald didn't pay him.
++The New York Attorney General has expanded his investigation into the Trump foundation because evidence is that people who owed Trump money paid him through the foundation and got a tax deduction. Also the foundation lacked the basic certificate for soliciting funds from the general public. Even I have that on my desk.
++The Miami Herald says Little Havana is hysterical about the Newsweek report Donald hired a consulting firm to explore doing business in Cuba when there were sanctions. But the kicker is that the consulting firm said he had to make it look "charitable" to get around the sanctions. Marco Rubio expressed dismay and said he might reconsider his endorsement. Others said give Trump the benefit of the doubt since the Donald promised to undo Obama's normalization of relations. 1/2 the registered Republicans in Dade County are Cubans. The Herald said he will hurt Trump among this group.
I MISSED THE CALL.
++Before 6am, Trump tweeted Alicia Machado saying America should watch her sex tape and Hillary using her shows "bad judgment". Now this man is obsessed.
++Another Miss Universe has come forward saying she had been fat-shamed by Trump. Wonder is she got paid? The day is young.
++Another Miss Universe has come forward saying she had been fat-shamed by Trump. Wonder is she got paid? The day is young.
Thursday, September 29, 2016
COULD WE GET THE STORY OF ALICIA MACHADO STRAIGHT?
++Yes, Trump fat shamed her and treated like shit. New Gingrich actually appeared on Fox to defend Trump's treatment on Ms. Machado. And Josh Marshall wrote today a post about how the Trump campaign issued talking points about how she was "vicious" and "should have been fired", Josh's point is that you don't keep this story alive for two days after the debate,
++In my opinion,she shouldn't have been fired,SHE SHOULD HAVE BEEN PAID. She appeared as Miss Universe at more functions than her predecessors and had a contract that she would be paid 10% of the gross revenues from each function. TRUMP NEVER PAID HER. THAT'S THE STORY.
++In my opinion,she shouldn't have been fired,SHE SHOULD HAVE BEEN PAID. She appeared as Miss Universe at more functions than her predecessors and had a contract that she would be paid 10% of the gross revenues from each function. TRUMP NEVER PAID HER. THAT'S THE STORY.
REMEMBER THE MAN WHO SOLD TRUMP $100,000 OF PIANOS?
++Of course he was stiffed and lost his income for a year. His name is J.Michael Diehl, who owns the Freehold Music Center in Freehold ,New Jersey. His other claim to fame was that he was the man who rented Bruce Springsteen his first guitar,which his father complained about.
++NO wonder, when Springsteen was criticized for calling Trump a "moron", he responded "He's an asshole,too."
++NO wonder, when Springsteen was criticized for calling Trump a "moron", he responded "He's an asshole,too."
NEW HAMPSHIRE. ECU POLL
++4-way:
Clinton 43%
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%
Stein 4%
++2-Way:
Clinton 46%
Trump 40%
Clinton 43%
Trump 37%
Johnson 11%
Stein 4%
++2-Way:
Clinton 46%
Trump 40%
GALLUP: CLINTON WINS DEBATE 61% TO TRUMP'S 27%
++Her win was on the par with her husband's rout of Bob Dole in 1996. Gallup said it was the third best debate since 1960.
Highly Recommended LIstening.
++Sam Wang's podcast at the Woodrow Wilson Center with Rick Pearlstein about the Trump phenomenon and alt/rt. Pearlstein has been writing about the right within the GOP since his first book on Goldwater.
++At the Princeton Election Consortium.
++At the Princeton Election Consortium.
REUTERS/IPSOS TRACKING POLL
Clinton 44%
Trump 38%
Four way:
Clinton 42%
Trump 38%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%
Trump 38%
Four way:
Clinton 42%
Trump 38%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%
MORE IMPORTANT POLL THAN YOU THINK
The Cuyahoga Battleground Poll. Cuyahoga County is key is Hillary is to have a chance in Ohio. Obama took it in 2008 at 68%,an unreasonable goal now seemingly … but.
Clinton 66.6%
Trump 25.1%
Johnson 3.5%
Stein 2.5%
Clinton 66.6%
Trump 25.1%
Johnson 3.5%
Stein 2.5%
PPP NATIONALTwo-way:
Clinton 49%
Trump 45%
Four Way:
Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 6%
McMullen 2%
Stein 1%
Trump 45%
Four Way:
Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 6%
McMullen 2%
Stein 1%
GOOD MORNING VIETNAM. PPP POST-DEBATE BATTLE GROUND POLLS
++Very extensive poll including extensive full out of millennials where Hillary zoomed as well as polling on issue questions. Worth the full read. But here goes.
++Colorado:
4-way:
Clinton 46%, Trump 40%, Johnson 6%, Stein 1%
2-way:
Clinton 51%
Trump 44%
++Florida
4-way:
Clinton 45%
Trump 43%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%
2Way:
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%
++North Carolina:
4 Way:
Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Two=way:
Clinton 49%
Trump 44%
++Virginia:
Clinton 46%
Trump 40%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%
Two-way:
Clinton 49%
Trump 44%
++Pennsylvania
Clinton 45%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%
Two-way:
Clinton 49%
Trump 44%
If the results of the polls hold, Trump has no way to reach 270.
++Colorado:
4-way:
Clinton 46%, Trump 40%, Johnson 6%, Stein 1%
2-way:
Clinton 51%
Trump 44%
++Florida
4-way:
Clinton 45%
Trump 43%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%
2Way:
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%
++North Carolina:
4 Way:
Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Two=way:
Clinton 49%
Trump 44%
++Virginia:
Clinton 46%
Trump 40%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%
Two-way:
Clinton 49%
Trump 44%
++Pennsylvania
Clinton 45%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%
Two-way:
Clinton 49%
Trump 44%
If the results of the polls hold, Trump has no way to reach 270.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
SAM WANG'S WORDS
++Sam should be getting more state and national polls by Friday and then we can see the bump.
++He says here is your starting point:
Clinton 303 EV, Trump 235EV.
Her meta-margin is +2.1%
++He says here is your starting point:
Clinton 303 EV, Trump 235EV.
Her meta-margin is +2.1%
ECHLEON INSIGHTS POLL. POST DEBATE
++Clinton 47%
Trump 42%
++Clinton 44%
Trump 39%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%
McMullin 2%
Trump 42%
++Clinton 44%
Trump 39%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%
McMullin 2%
MORNING CONSULT: 1/2 Before the Debate ; 1/2 after
++Who won the debate?
Clinton 49%
Trump 26%
? 26%
++Two-way:
Clinton 45%
Trump 41%
Four-way:
Clinton 41%
Trump 38%
Clinton 49%
Trump 26%
? 26%
++Two-way:
Clinton 45%
Trump 41%
Four-way:
Clinton 41%
Trump 38%
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Harvard Institute of Politics Millennial Poll on the Debate
++Who won the debate?
63% Clinton, 17% Trump,20% it was a draw.
++20% said they would more likely vote for Clinton now. But 65% said they would vote the same--whatever that is.
63% Clinton, 17% Trump,20% it was a draw.
++20% said they would more likely vote for Clinton now. But 65% said they would vote the same--whatever that is.
ELIZABETH WARREN FIGHTS BACK.
++A wonderful spunky video about Trump not paying is taxes. Elizabeth Warren takes the line "Paying Taxes Is Like Throwing Money Down The Drain" and shows how all the infrastructure we pay for, firefights,police and our military pay for Trump's business. She says is that "throwing your money down the drain?" Effective ad.
On The Campaign Trail
++President Obama praised Hillary's performance and her vision. He said Trump wasn't well-prepared and lacked the understanding of being an American who is incisive of all different types. I don't know whether that was a veiled criticism of Trump's bigotry.
++Joe Biden lit into Trump at Drexel College in Philadelphia about his bragging about not paying taxes and profiting from the housing crisis. "What kind of man is that who would brag about earning money off other peoples' misery." Then Biden brought up his father. "Even when it was tough to earn a living, he never complained about paying taxes." Biden went on that every President he had ever worked with had a basic sense of what it is being an American. He went on to say Trump does not.
++Hillary appeared in North Carolina and lashed out at Trump for bragging about not paying taxes.
++On the other side, Rudy said that Clinton was stupid about her husband's affairs which means she is too stud to be President.
++The Donald's campaign said he should be praised for not brining up Bill Clinton's affairs.
++Trump himself said he would attack Clinton harder in the next debate. He said the first debate hadn't been fair.
++The Wall Street Journal reports that gold prices have fallen because the prospects for a trump presidency have gotten grimmer.
++Stock Market prices rose because of Consumer Confidence after last night's debate.
++Trump continued to take a dive on Predictwise.
++Joe Biden lit into Trump at Drexel College in Philadelphia about his bragging about not paying taxes and profiting from the housing crisis. "What kind of man is that who would brag about earning money off other peoples' misery." Then Biden brought up his father. "Even when it was tough to earn a living, he never complained about paying taxes." Biden went on that every President he had ever worked with had a basic sense of what it is being an American. He went on to say Trump does not.
++Hillary appeared in North Carolina and lashed out at Trump for bragging about not paying taxes.
++On the other side, Rudy said that Clinton was stupid about her husband's affairs which means she is too stud to be President.
++The Donald's campaign said he should be praised for not brining up Bill Clinton's affairs.
++Trump himself said he would attack Clinton harder in the next debate. He said the first debate hadn't been fair.
++The Wall Street Journal reports that gold prices have fallen because the prospects for a trump presidency have gotten grimmer.
++Stock Market prices rose because of Consumer Confidence after last night's debate.
++Trump continued to take a dive on Predictwise.
TPM SCOREBOARD.
++Clinton 264 EV, Trump 203 EV
++Clinton 48%, Trump 45.4%.
++Toss-up states: Florida, North Carolina,Ohio, and Colorado.
++Remember what Pflouffe said about Colorado and Florida.
++Clinton 48%, Trump 45.4%.
++Toss-up states: Florida, North Carolina,Ohio, and Colorado.
++Remember what Pflouffe said about Colorado and Florida.
MEREDITH UNIVERSITY--NORTH CAROLINA
++Clinton 38%
Trump 35%
Undecided 21%.
Note about North Carolina. On the night of the debate there was a focus group of independents. When Trump said not paying taxes was good business and you would have squandered it ,the group collectively gasped. One man said,"I pay taxes. It's greedy not to pay taxes." Expect this to resonate.
Trump 35%
Undecided 21%.
Note about North Carolina. On the night of the debate there was a focus group of independents. When Trump said not paying taxes was good business and you would have squandered it ,the group collectively gasped. One man said,"I pay taxes. It's greedy not to pay taxes." Expect this to resonate.
THE RATINGS ARE IN.
++Nielsen Reports that 80.9 million watched on television and another 2.5 million on Youtube. PBS and CSPAN were not included.
++That makes it the most widely watched presidential debate in history. And what fun it was.
++That makes it the most widely watched presidential debate in history. And what fun it was.
THANKS, HILLARY,I HAD FUN.
++Hillary Clinton earlier this year said Americans needed to have more fun. Well, she provided it. The combination of his excellence at the debate and Trump very,very,very awful performance had me laughing into the early morning. Thanks to all bloggers who got into the swing of things with their quips and humor.
++Poilitifact released their truthiness card. 82% of the statements made by Hillary Clinton were true or mostly true. 56% of Donald Trump's were false or mostly false.
++Dr. Howard Dean speculated Trump had been using cocaine before the debate. The Trump campaign said it was a post-nasal drip.
++Trump actually went to the press room afterwards to say his mike had been malfunctioning and that was the reason for his poor performance.
++The New York Post is the only paper I've seen saying Hillary won a draw but that wasn't good enough.
++The Nazis said the "Hag" won and Trump didn't prepare for the establishment Beast.
++Freerepublic said that Hillary had been fed the questions before hand and that's how she could answer the cyberwarfare question so well.
++The Democrats went on a fund-raising spree afterwards and all this morning.
++Rudy complained that moderator Holt got his "Stop and Frisk" program wrong. And, yes,it is unconstitutional.
++Trump actually agreed with Hillary five times.
++Donald Trump went on Fox this morning and doubled down on Miss Universe, whom he had called Miss Piggy. Alicia Machado,the women in question, has already cut an ad for Hillary Clinton.
++Hillary's super pac already has an ad on Trump's temperament out.
++Trump also insulted professional women when he criticized Janet Yellin at the Fed. I felt that was more egregious than Rosie O'Donnell. My older colleague who is 71 said that more people know Rosie than Janet Yellin. I agree but isn't Rosie very very old news?
++The age issue came up with me when he criticized Hillary about her plan to fight ISIS and he mentioned how would General MacArthur feel.
++Some commentators don't thin this will affect the polls much. For instance a woman in Ohio was asked what she thought and she said<" know he's an asshole but I always vote the conservative party." Before the debate Sam Wang said he thought she might pick up a point but that's all.
++Poilitifact released their truthiness card. 82% of the statements made by Hillary Clinton were true or mostly true. 56% of Donald Trump's were false or mostly false.
++Dr. Howard Dean speculated Trump had been using cocaine before the debate. The Trump campaign said it was a post-nasal drip.
++Trump actually went to the press room afterwards to say his mike had been malfunctioning and that was the reason for his poor performance.
++The New York Post is the only paper I've seen saying Hillary won a draw but that wasn't good enough.
++The Nazis said the "Hag" won and Trump didn't prepare for the establishment Beast.
++Freerepublic said that Hillary had been fed the questions before hand and that's how she could answer the cyberwarfare question so well.
++The Democrats went on a fund-raising spree afterwards and all this morning.
++Rudy complained that moderator Holt got his "Stop and Frisk" program wrong. And, yes,it is unconstitutional.
++Trump actually agreed with Hillary five times.
++Donald Trump went on Fox this morning and doubled down on Miss Universe, whom he had called Miss Piggy. Alicia Machado,the women in question, has already cut an ad for Hillary Clinton.
++Hillary's super pac already has an ad on Trump's temperament out.
++Trump also insulted professional women when he criticized Janet Yellin at the Fed. I felt that was more egregious than Rosie O'Donnell. My older colleague who is 71 said that more people know Rosie than Janet Yellin. I agree but isn't Rosie very very old news?
++The age issue came up with me when he criticized Hillary about her plan to fight ISIS and he mentioned how would General MacArthur feel.
++Some commentators don't thin this will affect the polls much. For instance a woman in Ohio was asked what she thought and she said<" know he's an asshole but I always vote the conservative party." Before the debate Sam Wang said he thought she might pick up a point but that's all.
Monday, September 26, 2016
REMEMBER :THIS WAS BEFORE THE LARGEST AUDIENCE IN DEBATE HISTORY.
++Not hiding his glee,kos said," Trump played to the Breibart crowd, then to the voices in his head. It was a virtuoso performance of insanity, a cavalcade of crazy."
WHO WON?
++CNN/ORC POLL: 62% Clinton, 27% Trump.
++PPP. 51% Clinton 40% Trump.
Pundits call it TKO Clinton. Josh Marshall even described Hillary hitting Trump rat-a-tat-tat with rapid fired jabs to keep him on the ropes for the first 2/3rds of the evening. She commanded the tempo and pace of the debate. But didn't score a knockdown.
++PPP. 51% Clinton 40% Trump.
Pundits call it TKO Clinton. Josh Marshall even described Hillary hitting Trump rat-a-tat-tat with rapid fired jabs to keep him on the ropes for the first 2/3rds of the evening. She commanded the tempo and pace of the debate. But didn't score a knockdown.
"HE SNIFFED MORE THAN BOWIE ON CAVETT IN 1974."
++The reviews are pouring in that Trump gave the worst debate performance of a major candidate in years. They say the split screen didn't help him with grimaces and smirks.People are pouring on his "stop and risk" policy.
++People actually commented that Hillary actually got to outline policies. Andrew Sullivan feared Trump sense of show biz and pizzazz would overshadow Hillary. But I think he didn't get his rhythm because he did not have reactions from a live audience.
++Apparently in Luntz group ,Trump's answer about the loan from his father,the tax returns, all tanked. Hillary's plan for ISIS even got support from the Trump supporters and the independents.
++Will this stop the right's campaign against Hillary's health? It was Donald that came across as weakened by something.
++People actually commented that Hillary actually got to outline policies. Andrew Sullivan feared Trump sense of show biz and pizzazz would overshadow Hillary. But I think he didn't get his rhythm because he did not have reactions from a live audience.
++Apparently in Luntz group ,Trump's answer about the loan from his father,the tax returns, all tanked. Hillary's plan for ISIS even got support from the Trump supporters and the independents.
++Will this stop the right's campaign against Hillary's health? It was Donald that came across as weakened by something.
FRANK LUNTZ' FOCUS GROUP: 16 Hillary,6 Trump
++Frank Luntz called Hillary the best prepared debater he's every seen. She knew when to attack and when to explain.
MAYBE IT'S BECAUSE HE DIDN'T WEAR A POWER TIE. THE FIRST DEBATE.
++Crude and crass, Trump tried to get his act together but Hillary got under his skin early.
++Andrew Sullivan said he ended up as a drunken uncle, saying NATO was a protection racket.
++For some reason because his base likes it, he disparaged Hillary Clinton's public service. He tried to defend his business practices but couldn't. She hung him out to dry on his taxes and he finally slipped by saying if he paid them they would be wasted.
++He attacked her for her temperament and lack of stamina. She pounded him right back with her record of flying all over the world and negotiated peace agreements and getting the release of dissidents.
++He then tried to say she had experience but the wrong type of experience.
++He tried to say that Hillary and Obama created ISIS by getting out of Iraq in the wrong way. He didn't have a plan for Isis but said that Hillary's plan made it harder to defeat ISIS because she published it.
++As you can see,people will remember Donald's part of the debate because he was so outlandish. He was fact-checked throughout the debate on the media.
++Hillary nailed Trump on his economic plans and lambasted his trickle down economics. The fact-checkers said she was right in him costing jobs and she creating them. He claimed that sounded great but she had not experience in creating jobs.
++She got him hot under the collar about his business and bankruptcy. He said he used existing law. She raised him not paying his bills. He kept interrupting to try and change the subject.
++She was prepared . He ranted. She lookeds at the audience at home. He didn't. She was calm even when insulted. She addressed the audience at home he didn't, He spoke to the moderator. She came across as presidential. I found him a lunatic.
++She got in college tuition. He kept saying she was going to create massive regulation to drive business away. She was bringing profits home he kept talking about how cutting the tax rates would create jobs.
++He invoked Reagan twice and said he would cut taxes more than Reagan did. He didn't realize there was a larger audience.
++He tried to put birtherism on Sidney Blumenthal and kept digging into it. He said he was responsible for getting Obama to release his birth certificate. Hillary slammed him for then speaking about it another three years. He stuttered.
++He came out of the box talking about trade deals and how he is such a great negotiator. Hillary said he was living in his own word.
++She pricked him by raising the issue of whether he is as wealthy as he claimed . He countered by saying how wonderful Trump enterprises is.
++She was poised ,articulate,and didn't give away her frustration in grimaces but instead showed her smiling eyes like isn't this great.
++Trump tried to say he had a better temperament that she but in the rant proved otherwise. He's not very self-conscious.
++It was dreadful to see. Hillary was a good sport about it.
++She nailed him on his housing discrimination. He countered by saying he opened a club in Palm Beach where he allowed anyone to join. Expecting praise for doing something legal.
++Trump tried to get into the email thing with Hillary and offer to release his taxes if she released her emails. She went on--looking at the television audience saying everyone for the past 40 years has released their taxes.
++Trump boasted that Hillary has spent all this money on ads and he still is tied in the polls.
++If you want an egomaniac, he's your man. From a foreign policy point of view, it was disgraceful. From an economic view,Trump played the old Republican cutting taxes creates jobs.
++Bottom-line, Hillary helped her cause. She had him reeling but she didn't knock him out. She got in climate change, which Trump poo-poohed. She gave millennials something to buy in with that and the tuition payments and refi.
++Did Trump win undecided, I don't think so. Hillary didn't disappoint her base and Trump should have offended the white suburban women he needed.
++His pandering to the black community was strange.
++Andrew Sullivan said he ended up as a drunken uncle, saying NATO was a protection racket.
++For some reason because his base likes it, he disparaged Hillary Clinton's public service. He tried to defend his business practices but couldn't. She hung him out to dry on his taxes and he finally slipped by saying if he paid them they would be wasted.
++He attacked her for her temperament and lack of stamina. She pounded him right back with her record of flying all over the world and negotiated peace agreements and getting the release of dissidents.
++He then tried to say she had experience but the wrong type of experience.
++He tried to say that Hillary and Obama created ISIS by getting out of Iraq in the wrong way. He didn't have a plan for Isis but said that Hillary's plan made it harder to defeat ISIS because she published it.
++As you can see,people will remember Donald's part of the debate because he was so outlandish. He was fact-checked throughout the debate on the media.
++Hillary nailed Trump on his economic plans and lambasted his trickle down economics. The fact-checkers said she was right in him costing jobs and she creating them. He claimed that sounded great but she had not experience in creating jobs.
++She got him hot under the collar about his business and bankruptcy. He said he used existing law. She raised him not paying his bills. He kept interrupting to try and change the subject.
++She was prepared . He ranted. She lookeds at the audience at home. He didn't. She was calm even when insulted. She addressed the audience at home he didn't, He spoke to the moderator. She came across as presidential. I found him a lunatic.
++She got in college tuition. He kept saying she was going to create massive regulation to drive business away. She was bringing profits home he kept talking about how cutting the tax rates would create jobs.
++He invoked Reagan twice and said he would cut taxes more than Reagan did. He didn't realize there was a larger audience.
++He tried to put birtherism on Sidney Blumenthal and kept digging into it. He said he was responsible for getting Obama to release his birth certificate. Hillary slammed him for then speaking about it another three years. He stuttered.
++He came out of the box talking about trade deals and how he is such a great negotiator. Hillary said he was living in his own word.
++She pricked him by raising the issue of whether he is as wealthy as he claimed . He countered by saying how wonderful Trump enterprises is.
++She was poised ,articulate,and didn't give away her frustration in grimaces but instead showed her smiling eyes like isn't this great.
++Trump tried to say he had a better temperament that she but in the rant proved otherwise. He's not very self-conscious.
++It was dreadful to see. Hillary was a good sport about it.
++She nailed him on his housing discrimination. He countered by saying he opened a club in Palm Beach where he allowed anyone to join. Expecting praise for doing something legal.
++Trump tried to get into the email thing with Hillary and offer to release his taxes if she released her emails. She went on--looking at the television audience saying everyone for the past 40 years has released their taxes.
++Trump boasted that Hillary has spent all this money on ads and he still is tied in the polls.
++If you want an egomaniac, he's your man. From a foreign policy point of view, it was disgraceful. From an economic view,Trump played the old Republican cutting taxes creates jobs.
++Bottom-line, Hillary helped her cause. She had him reeling but she didn't knock him out. She got in climate change, which Trump poo-poohed. She gave millennials something to buy in with that and the tuition payments and refi.
++Did Trump win undecided, I don't think so. Hillary didn't disappoint her base and Trump should have offended the white suburban women he needed.
++His pandering to the black community was strange.
THE 8th AND FINAL TRIBAL NATIONS CONFERENCE
++When President Obama was first elected, he promised to listen to the Indian tribes. He campaigned among them and even cultivated Indians to run for office. He finally settled the decades long Cobell Case over getting an accounting of the oil revenues owed the nations. He recognized more nations than before. Interestingly enough the remaining Indian tribes are in Virginia and had signed treaties with England that has delayed their recognition.
++Over 450 nations attended today's conference and the head of the Comanche nation said that President Obama had done more for the Indians than any other President. The list of initiatives cited in the proclamation was impressive and constitute one of legacies.
++Over 450 nations attended today's conference and the head of the Comanche nation said that President Obama had done more for the Indians than any other President. The list of initiatives cited in the proclamation was impressive and constitute one of legacies.
SAM WANG HAS A DEBATE SURPRISE FOR YOU.
++Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV, Random rift 79%, Bayesian 87%, meta-margin now back to 2.4%.
++Surprising that Democrats' potability to take back the Senate is 52%.
++Surprising that Democrats' potability to take back the Senate is 52%.
NBC/SURVEY MONKEY
++Two way:
Clinton 51%
Trump 44%
++Four-way:
Clinton 45%
Trump 40%
Johnson 10%
Stein 3%
Clinton 51%
Trump 44%
++Four-way:
Clinton 45%
Trump 40%
Johnson 10%
Stein 3%
SAM WANG HATES TO DISPUTE YOU BUT...
++Sam Wang has an excellent essay on ignoring the debate expectations.
++Sam says that this year's election is the most stable in 60 years of polling and that at the state level it is even more stable. He expects Hillary to move 1 or 2 its two weeks after the debate. She's doing fine. He has her at 294 EV to 244EV.
++Read the questions and answers -- a tutorial on polls.
++Sam says that this year's election is the most stable in 60 years of polling and that at the state level it is even more stable. He expects Hillary to move 1 or 2 its two weeks after the debate. She's doing fine. He has her at 294 EV to 244EV.
++Read the questions and answers -- a tutorial on polls.
MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY (NATIONAL)
++Clinton 46%
Trump 42%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%
96% of Democrats are behind Clinton, only 85% of Republicans behind Trump.
47% said it was important to make sure Trump isn't elected. Only 17% said that about Clinton.
Few expect the election to change their vote.
Trump 42%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%
96% of Democrats are behind Clinton, only 85% of Republicans behind Trump.
47% said it was important to make sure Trump isn't elected. Only 17% said that about Clinton.
Few expect the election to change their vote.
REMEMBER PFLOUFFE_--STATE POLLS
++OHIO ( Gravis)
Trump 43%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%
++Minnesota (Survey USA)
Clinton 46%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%
++Pennsylvania (CNN)
Clinton 45%
Trump 44%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%
++Colorado. (CNN)
Trump 42%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 13%
Stein 3%
Trump 43%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%
++Minnesota (Survey USA)
Clinton 46%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%
++Pennsylvania (CNN)
Clinton 45%
Trump 44%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%
++Colorado. (CNN)
Trump 42%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 13%
Stein 3%
CHECK OUT JOSH MARSHALL TODAY ON ALL THE POLLS.
++Hillary has exactly the same lead as Obama at this date in 2012 and has regained her dominance in the electoral college.
MORE PFLOUFFE
++He says tonight's debate in 75% of the remaining of the campaign. He says Hillary can't reveal her frustration with Trump facially. That's why got Obama in trouble with Romney in the first debate.
++Pennsylvania: She's going to come out of Philadelphia and the suburbs with 500,000 plus. There are not enough voters in the rest of the state for Trump to take it. Republicans have already told him that.
++Florida--She should do well with the I-4 corridor among Puerto Ricans and Colombians. He thinks that she will over perform in the Panhandle.
++Colorado is where the Hispanic vote is most important. She is likely to over perform with swing women in the suburbs of Denver.
++He says she has to make the newly registered African-Americans, Hispanics and college students want to vote. Tonight's is her best chance to do it.
++Pennsylvania: She's going to come out of Philadelphia and the suburbs with 500,000 plus. There are not enough voters in the rest of the state for Trump to take it. Republicans have already told him that.
++Florida--She should do well with the I-4 corridor among Puerto Ricans and Colombians. He thinks that she will over perform in the Panhandle.
++Colorado is where the Hispanic vote is most important. She is likely to over perform with swing women in the suburbs of Denver.
++He says she has to make the newly registered African-Americans, Hispanics and college students want to vote. Tonight's is her best chance to do it.
DAVID PLOUFFE--THE PLUMLINE PODCAST WITH GREG SARGENT
++Plouffee says the polls are incomplete. The Clinton campaign are doing large samples for modeling surveys of everyone on the voter list. So you have a very good understanding of how you believe 100% of the election will be allocated on election day.
++When you look at how 100% is likely to be allocated in Florida,I get very optimistic. I can get Trump to within 2 or 3 in Pennsylvania but I can't get him to a winning number.
++The same is true in Virginia and Colorado. I know everybody goes crazy about the latest Cheetos poll but I feel very confident about both New Hampshire and Florida. So that puts her over 300. Trump would have to pull off a miracle in the electoral college.
++He think Clinton will win Colorado larger than Obama did in 2012.
++He thinks the areas soft for Clinton will firm up after the debate.
++From Plouffe's mouth to God's ear.
++When you look at how 100% is likely to be allocated in Florida,I get very optimistic. I can get Trump to within 2 or 3 in Pennsylvania but I can't get him to a winning number.
++The same is true in Virginia and Colorado. I know everybody goes crazy about the latest Cheetos poll but I feel very confident about both New Hampshire and Florida. So that puts her over 300. Trump would have to pull off a miracle in the electoral college.
++He think Clinton will win Colorado larger than Obama did in 2012.
++He thinks the areas soft for Clinton will firm up after the debate.
++From Plouffe's mouth to God's ear.
CHRISTOPHER NEWPORT U. --VIRGINIA
++Clinton 48%
Trump 38%
++Clinton 39%
Trump 33%
Johnson 15%
Stein 3%
Mullin 3%
++In my neck of the woods, Clinton 52%, Trump 30%. You don't win Virginia by losing the North by 20 points. Not mathematically possible.
Trump 38%
++Clinton 39%
Trump 33%
Johnson 15%
Stein 3%
Mullin 3%
++In my neck of the woods, Clinton 52%, Trump 30%. You don't win Virginia by losing the North by 20 points. Not mathematically possible.
WASHINGTON POST EDITORIAL
++The Post says so what if Trump does well in tonight's debate or whether Hillary commits a gaffe. "IT'S BEYOND DEBATE THAT DONALD TRUMP IS UNFIT TO BE PRESIDENT."
Sunday, September 25, 2016
BIBI ASKED FOR IT
++After his hour-long meeting with Bibi at Trump Tower, Trump said his Wall on the Mexican border would be like the successful separation fences in Israel. He also promised Bibi he would declare Jerusalem the capital of Israel.
STATE POLLS
++Colorado: CBS/YOUGOV
Clinton 40%
Trump 39%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%
++Colorado: GRAVIS (BEWARE!)
Trump 41%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 6%
Stein 6% (Really?)
++Ohio: Gravis (BEWARE!)
Trump 43%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%
++Virginia: CBS/YOUGOV.
Clinton 45%
Trump 37%
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%
++Missouri (CBS/YOUGOV)
Trump 46%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%
++Maine (Portland Press Herald)
Clinton 40%
Romney 37%
Johnson 12%
Stein 3%
++Maine CD1
Clinton 50%
Trump 28%.
++Maine CD2
Trump 48%
Clinton 34%
The Maine votes reflect their choice to split electoral votes. The sharp splits reflect the difference between coastal, urban and college Maine; and backwoods and rural Maine.
Clinton 40%
Trump 39%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%
++Colorado: GRAVIS (BEWARE!)
Trump 41%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 6%
Stein 6% (Really?)
++Ohio: Gravis (BEWARE!)
Trump 43%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%
++Virginia: CBS/YOUGOV.
Clinton 45%
Trump 37%
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%
++Missouri (CBS/YOUGOV)
Trump 46%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%
++Maine (Portland Press Herald)
Clinton 40%
Romney 37%
Johnson 12%
Stein 3%
++Maine CD1
Clinton 50%
Trump 28%.
++Maine CD2
Trump 48%
Clinton 34%
The Maine votes reflect their choice to split electoral votes. The sharp splits reflect the difference between coastal, urban and college Maine; and backwoods and rural Maine.
DANTE CHINNI AT NBC.
++Dante says that the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that Trump is not getting the numbers Romney had in 2012 when he lost. Trump isn't getting Romney numbers in Hispanics,African-Americans and whites. He haste do better than Romney is all three areas if he is to have a chance.
WHY TRUMP SHOULD NOT BE PRESIDENT
++The New York Times decided their pro-Hillary editorial just wasn't enough. Tonight they issued one against Trump.
++"Donald Trump is a man who dwells in bigotry, bluster and false promises."
++As to his executive experience, they point to his sketchy ventures and bankruptcies. They claim his Russian investments would run counter to our national interest.
++They point to his lacking any experience in national security.They cite security experts as larded by his having his hand on the nuclear codes. They says he has no plan to defeat ISIS. He's just bluffing.
++They say whatever his real immigration plans, it is clear he is anti-immigrant, xenophobic and Islamophobe.
++They point to his having 117 distinct policies on 20 major issues. And three contradictory positions on abortion in 8 hours.
++They say his ideas on the national credit are balmy. His tax plan costs $10 trillion or stripped it's $3 trillion. But no economist can tell you where he gets the revenue from. But in any case,his lag favors the wealthy.
++They cite his trade policies as starting a recession and trade wars.
++Candidate of Change. The Times says that you have to pick what type of change you want. Torture,the cancellation of the climate change Treaty, trade wars, recession and national "Stop and frisk policies"?
++Read it. The case against Trump is here.
++"Donald Trump is a man who dwells in bigotry, bluster and false promises."
++As to his executive experience, they point to his sketchy ventures and bankruptcies. They claim his Russian investments would run counter to our national interest.
++They point to his lacking any experience in national security.They cite security experts as larded by his having his hand on the nuclear codes. They says he has no plan to defeat ISIS. He's just bluffing.
++They say whatever his real immigration plans, it is clear he is anti-immigrant, xenophobic and Islamophobe.
++They point to his having 117 distinct policies on 20 major issues. And three contradictory positions on abortion in 8 hours.
++They say his ideas on the national credit are balmy. His tax plan costs $10 trillion or stripped it's $3 trillion. But no economist can tell you where he gets the revenue from. But in any case,his lag favors the wealthy.
++They cite his trade policies as starting a recession and trade wars.
++Candidate of Change. The Times says that you have to pick what type of change you want. Torture,the cancellation of the climate change Treaty, trade wars, recession and national "Stop and frisk policies"?
++Read it. The case against Trump is here.
ECONOMIST/YOU GOV NATIONAL POLL
TWO WAY:
CLINTON 48%, TRUMP 44%
FOUR WAY:
CLINTON 44%, TRUMP 41%
Johnson 5%, Stein 1%.
Note: a blogger asked whether Johnson's 5% eliminate the 3rd Party key in Lichtman's ding against the Democrats. Good question. If you throw in the Climate Change Agreement as a foreign policy success, then then Clinton wins.
CLINTON 48%, TRUMP 44%
FOUR WAY:
CLINTON 44%, TRUMP 41%
Johnson 5%, Stein 1%.
Note: a blogger asked whether Johnson's 5% eliminate the 3rd Party key in Lichtman's ding against the Democrats. Good question. If you throw in the Climate Change Agreement as a foreign policy success, then then Clinton wins.
The Great Panic Debate
++Jos Marshall weighs in on the time to panic debate. He says if there was a time to panic ,it would be the Republicans who trailed since January, He talks about the Nate Silver and his critics and admits he doesn't know the statistical arguments. But he gives you a graphics of 2012 and 2016. Obama was ahead by less than a pt, Hillary's ahead by more than two pts. He says that it is not a tied race. But the race will be closer than thought but not out of the ordinary for the last several. Josh says is it true Clinton has a better chance of winning--Yes. Is it certain-Not yet.
++Robby Monk told ABC News today that they had put a memo out in June saying the race would tighten up. But he says that there is still a chance for the gap to widen again. He hopes after the first debate.
++I think Josh has good advice.
++Robby Monk told ABC News today that they had put a memo out in June saying the race would tighten up. But he says that there is still a chance for the gap to widen again. He hopes after the first debate.
++I think Josh has good advice.
THE FIX: PHILLIP BUMP--THE WHITE VOTE
++Bump ponders the question of the white vote, which appears severely splintered this year. In 2012, white voters backed Romney. In fact, white voters have supported Republicans more than Democrats every election since 1972.
++In 2012, Romney won by 20 points over Obama. Right now, Trump has a 16 point lead in a four way race.
++But white women--particularly white women with college degrees or some degree prefer CDkinton over Trump.These women support Clinton by over 25pts more than Trump.
++But Trump is ahead by 60points with whites without college degrees. Apparently his advantage here is offsetting his loss of the college educated.
++But Pew Research says that the collapse of support from white women and college educated would doom Trump.
++Bump writes that income and education usually affect the likelihood to vote. If Trump wins, then these people actually came out to vote.
++Go White Girls!!
++In 2012, Romney won by 20 points over Obama. Right now, Trump has a 16 point lead in a four way race.
++But white women--particularly white women with college degrees or some degree prefer CDkinton over Trump.These women support Clinton by over 25pts more than Trump.
++But Trump is ahead by 60points with whites without college degrees. Apparently his advantage here is offsetting his loss of the college educated.
++But Pew Research says that the collapse of support from white women and college educated would doom Trump.
++Bump writes that income and education usually affect the likelihood to vote. If Trump wins, then these people actually came out to vote.
++Go White Girls!!
WHO'S THE FASTEST, WHO'S MOST ACCURATE
++Dailykos had an analysis of who processes polls the fastest and who has a high degree of reliability. UPSHOT is fast and has a high degree of reliability and Sam Wang at PEC is slow but has a very high degree of reliability. Nate the Great is sort of fast and sort of reliable. This year he comes in third.
IAN REIFOWITZ IS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT HILLARY
++George Takei tweeted this week he couldn't understand Sanders' voters going for Gary Johnson and not Hillary.
++Charles Pierce at Esquire wrote a piece about how Gary Johnson is crazy and his political positions are nothing progressives or the young should accept.
++Ian Reifowitz at the Dailykos says as a progressive he is enthusiastic about voting for Hillary because she has fought decades for progressive causes. He raises concerns about the poll numbers showing the millennials are buying into Johnson or Stein.
++Remember the primary drivers for libertarianism in the United States are the Koch Brothers,one of whom ran on the libertarian ticket.
++Reifowitz says Gary Johnson doesn't believe there is a public good. He says he has the same view of our system as Ayn Rand that it takes from the creators and gives to the non-productive.
++Johnson vetoed a modest increase in the minimum wage. He beeves Social Security should be raised to 70 or 72 and parts should be privatized. He believes that Medicare/Medicaid should be sent to the states. Reifowitz says count me out.
++He also says that Jill Stein is just too radical and has serious doubts about her program on vaccinations. She actually believes we should do something about climate change while Johnson does not.
++Reifowitz says the test for millennials is their response to Trump rhetoric on Charlotte and Hillary's proposals.
++If you think we live in a diversified ,pluralistic society, you only have one choice.
++Charles Pierce at Esquire wrote a piece about how Gary Johnson is crazy and his political positions are nothing progressives or the young should accept.
++Ian Reifowitz at the Dailykos says as a progressive he is enthusiastic about voting for Hillary because she has fought decades for progressive causes. He raises concerns about the poll numbers showing the millennials are buying into Johnson or Stein.
++Remember the primary drivers for libertarianism in the United States are the Koch Brothers,one of whom ran on the libertarian ticket.
++Reifowitz says Gary Johnson doesn't believe there is a public good. He says he has the same view of our system as Ayn Rand that it takes from the creators and gives to the non-productive.
++Johnson vetoed a modest increase in the minimum wage. He beeves Social Security should be raised to 70 or 72 and parts should be privatized. He believes that Medicare/Medicaid should be sent to the states. Reifowitz says count me out.
++He also says that Jill Stein is just too radical and has serious doubts about her program on vaccinations. She actually believes we should do something about climate change while Johnson does not.
++Reifowitz says the test for millennials is their response to Trump rhetoric on Charlotte and Hillary's proposals.
++If you think we live in a diversified ,pluralistic society, you only have one choice.
MICHAEL FINNIGAN IN THE LOS ANGELES TIMES
++FYI: Pew established that of all candidates running in the primaries this year Hillary Clinton was the most truthful. Yet the NBC/Wall Street Journal found that Americans thought Trump was the more honest.
++Today's New York Times prints 31 lies Trump told in the last week. The media is getting more upfront in calling him out.
++Michael Finnegan writes in today's Los Angeles time that the scope of Trump's falsehoods are unprecedented for a modern presidential candidacy.
++Politifact gave him the "Lie of The Year". They said his laying was stunning. 70% of his statements reach the "Pants on Fire" stage. Only 28% of Hillary Clinton's did.
++But Finnegan does a good job interviewing academics in communications about how Trump gets away with this.
++Is it any wonder the Los Angles Times endorsed Hillary Clinton as being "the sober, smart an pragmatic President . Trump would be a catastrophe."
++Today's New York Times prints 31 lies Trump told in the last week. The media is getting more upfront in calling him out.
++Michael Finnegan writes in today's Los Angeles time that the scope of Trump's falsehoods are unprecedented for a modern presidential candidacy.
++Politifact gave him the "Lie of The Year". They said his laying was stunning. 70% of his statements reach the "Pants on Fire" stage. Only 28% of Hillary Clinton's did.
++But Finnegan does a good job interviewing academics in communications about how Trump gets away with this.
++Is it any wonder the Los Angles Times endorsed Hillary Clinton as being "the sober, smart an pragmatic President . Trump would be a catastrophe."
ROSS DOUTHAT "THE DEBATE MISMATCH"
++Ross Douthat, who suffered from Obama Derangement Syndrome and general confusion during then Republican primaries,comes back from the dead to ask of us to return to what we used to know about our politics and recall once again what normalcy looks like. He says there has been too much gaming out of how Trump might ambush Hillary ,how he might manage expectations well enough to make s poor performance look like victory. But he says it is easy to lose sight of the core truth: It will be ridiculous if Donald Trump won these debates.
++He writes that these debates aren't like the primary debates. Those debates weren't debates at all--they were early episodes of a reality television program--a genre knows very well. Trump never shared the stage with fewer than three other rivals. He notes that James Fellows wrote he would go "intone a kind of hibernation "whoever the conversation turned remotely substantive and emerge to hurl insults and declaim his promises of greatness restored.
++Douthat says Trump has not yet done anything remotely like what he'll be asked to do this week: stand there and argue with a seasoned politician about public policy for 90 minutes without refuge or escape. Douthat says Trump hasn't shown anything to indicate he's cultivated the self discipline necessary for this task. "He remains true to himself-proudly ignorant,blustering and serially mendacious."
++Douthat doesn't find Clinton a particularly appealing politician. But he stresses she is solid and an experienced debater who knows the workings of American government inside and out, a careful,meticulous,unexciting performance of the kind that she has delivered in many debates before, should suffice to make her look wiser,safer and more serious than the tabloid character across the stage from her.
++Douthat says Trump enters these debates as a very well-known quantity, more than half the country is in fear of what his presidency will mean: there is no reason to think that many of those voters are primed to give him the benefit of the doubt.
++"A series of bates between a man proudly unprepared for the office of the presidency and a woman of Clinton's knowledge and experience should produce a predictable outcome: She should win, and he should lose."
++He writes that these debates aren't like the primary debates. Those debates weren't debates at all--they were early episodes of a reality television program--a genre knows very well. Trump never shared the stage with fewer than three other rivals. He notes that James Fellows wrote he would go "intone a kind of hibernation "whoever the conversation turned remotely substantive and emerge to hurl insults and declaim his promises of greatness restored.
++Douthat says Trump has not yet done anything remotely like what he'll be asked to do this week: stand there and argue with a seasoned politician about public policy for 90 minutes without refuge or escape. Douthat says Trump hasn't shown anything to indicate he's cultivated the self discipline necessary for this task. "He remains true to himself-proudly ignorant,blustering and serially mendacious."
++Douthat doesn't find Clinton a particularly appealing politician. But he stresses she is solid and an experienced debater who knows the workings of American government inside and out, a careful,meticulous,unexciting performance of the kind that she has delivered in many debates before, should suffice to make her look wiser,safer and more serious than the tabloid character across the stage from her.
++Douthat says Trump enters these debates as a very well-known quantity, more than half the country is in fear of what his presidency will mean: there is no reason to think that many of those voters are primed to give him the benefit of the doubt.
++"A series of bates between a man proudly unprepared for the office of the presidency and a woman of Clinton's knowledge and experience should produce a predictable outcome: She should win, and he should lose."
READ THE NEW YORK TIMES' ENDORSEMENT OF HILLARY CLINTON
++The Times spent a good amount of space in their endorsement of being very specific about what Hillary Clinton brings to the table as President. They finally admitted that the email server issue deserved attention but in light of the historical context is more a housekeeping issue. They outlined what she did well as Secretary of State and what has turned out not to turned out as well as she thought. They also emphasized what they has learned through three presidency. I found it more compelling the second time I read it.
OBAMA'S SPEECH AT THE MUSEUM OF AFRICAN-AMERICAN HISTORY AND CULTURE.
++His valedictory tours have brought us his views on American identity. This speech was no exception. One of his many points was that our various identities talk to each other, see each other and play off each other and that polyglot identity is what is American. He spoke about the tragedy, the joy and the challenges of moving to a more "perfect union." Perhaps only a Black President can speak this way with any conviction and persuasion.
++While it was not an overtly political speech,he did allude to this year's elections. That we have to keep who we are and where we came from in mind.
++Please look at the full speech. It's about 29 minutes long posted at democratic underground.com.
++Obama reminds us that Jim Crow was yesterday and that the grievances from that period remain.
++I took this speech as a complementary speech to his last speech to the United Nations where he argued for the liberal world order and globalism, bridges ,not walls. On the UN speech, E.J. Dionne wrote that this year's election is a crucial vote on whether the United States will uphold its long-standing commitment to a just world order.
++I expect Obama on the campaign trail will emphasize the same points. He is asserting American identity and reminding us how far we have come even in his own lifetime.
++While it was not an overtly political speech,he did allude to this year's elections. That we have to keep who we are and where we came from in mind.
++Please look at the full speech. It's about 29 minutes long posted at democratic underground.com.
++Obama reminds us that Jim Crow was yesterday and that the grievances from that period remain.
++I took this speech as a complementary speech to his last speech to the United Nations where he argued for the liberal world order and globalism, bridges ,not walls. On the UN speech, E.J. Dionne wrote that this year's election is a crucial vote on whether the United States will uphold its long-standing commitment to a just world order.
++I expect Obama on the campaign trail will emphasize the same points. He is asserting American identity and reminding us how far we have come even in his own lifetime.
AKRON BEACON JOURNAL (OHIO) "HILLARY CLINTON IS THE CHANGE."
++A very cogent editorial aimed at younger voters reminding them of all the changes Hillary Clinton has sought and will seek when President.
Saturday, September 24, 2016
WASH. POST/ABC POLL
++Clinton 46%
Trump 44%
Johnson 5%
Stein 1%
++Two-way Likely Voters:
Clinton 49%
Trump 47%
++Among whites: Trump 53% Clinton 37%
Among non-whites: Clinton 69% Trump 19%.
++White College Educated Women:
Clinton 57%, Trump 32%.
++Note Trump doing worse with white voters than Romney.
++Hillary has a good gender gap but not enough.
REALITY-BASED ELECTION PROJECTION
++Mark Lippman at Dailykos matches general election donations to congressional districts and projects the winner. It may look wild but he got the Clinton -Sanders race within two delegates and got the number of races won by Sanders.
++He projects 381 Electoral Votes for Clinton. That's far above the upper limits on Sam Wang and Nate Silver. But maybe his methodology is the way to go.
++He projects 381 Electoral Votes for Clinton. That's far above the upper limits on Sam Wang and Nate Silver. But maybe his methodology is the way to go.
THE DEBATE
++Remember it is the visual presentation that counts. The Donald will be tall,Hillary short. People will snipe about what she wears and notice if he has a 1990s Red Power tie.
++The good news is that there are prohibitions against applause,cheering and booing during the debate, which Trump plays off of.
++Josh Marshall commented today that we should not expect Trump to come across as unhinged. Josh writes that he didn't drug the Republican debates and that his off-the-wall statements are on the campaign trail. He also doesn't think Trump can go for a knock out punch because he has to pretend he is presidential.
++Hillary is substantial on policy but given to going into the weeds. She has to be short and sweet. Obama handled this by telling viewers go to his policy handbook for the details. Hillary can do the same and say everything is paid for. Obama made sure middle-class Americans knew they would not be paying more taxes, the wealthier would. This effectively neutralized the Democrats are Tax and Spend liberals. Hillary actually needs to weave this into her speaking,
++I think she needs to be aggressive in the first debate. This will have the highest ratings and in effect be the debate that moves the dial on the polls. The rest are a wash. Remember she is the underdog in the debate because she's female and ostensibly the "incumbent".
++She needs to "attack Trump's manliness". The idea is that Trump has support because of his male authoritarianism. In part that is the contrast with Obama's sophisticated rhetoric and political chess making.
++Hillary has to be snappy, make Trump hesitate, make him look indecisive. She can take in-coming because she has the advantage of being a woman and it makes him look like the bully he is. Be assured his handlers have cautioned him against playing the Alpha Male against Hillary. He may not be able to help himself.
++Hillary knows how to play head games. Her invitation to Mark Cuban triggered the Gennifer Flowers debate. The Donald was awkward with the only woman on the GOP stage. Expect that to appear in the debate despite all the advice.
++Hillary has to have a pithy answer to questions on the Clinton Foundation and the damn emails. To get bogged down is to lose.
++Josh Marshall remarked that this debate is one-on-one which Trump has never done and Hillary is an old pro at it. The trouble with this format is that it expects answers to a host of questions and not some soundbite, which favors Trump. It also allows follow-up by the moderator who contrary to Trump's assertions is a registered Republican of the Negro persuasion. which may make him uncomfortable.
++Marshall reproduced Trump's lengthy answer to a question on ISIS at the Commander in Chief Summit. As Josh pointed out he didn't know what he is taking about and,in those cases, he bullshits an answer. Hillary has to call him out on this but not make it a lengthy response.
++Marshall feels that Hillary does no good by bringing up Trump's birtherism or even his bigotry. If she is challenged by her remarks about Trump supporters, she can then answer about the alt.right, David Duke,and Trump's flirtation with these groups.
++The real pressure is on Hillary because any misstatement by her will eat a week's media time while the same by Trump will just be excused as that's Trump. She has to make Trump unacceptable as President. She can deliver her steady, consistent performance but she needs some memorable lines.
++I don't think she should go to her strength on foreign policy because Trump can point to mayhem and murder abroad as some American failure. She has to be precise in how she defends her stay as Secretary of State.
++If Trump raises the immunity for her aides on the email scandal, she shouldn't go lawyer on us. She should past him with his myriad of legal problem right now. Bribing the Florida Attorney General, Trump University,the Trump Foundation and the two sex cases. "Don't lecture me on corruption, you wrote the book."
++A Bad debate--like Obama's first with Romney--cost Obama immediately 2 points and then it faded. That's why I said she should be 4 points in the lead to neutralize a bad debate. By the way, I thought Obama didn't do badly in the debate but it is received wisdom.
++But there, remember we had already elected him and observed him as President for four years. This would be the first debate for Hillary and we don't have that as a background to judge so a bad performance may have a deeper effect.
++The good news is that there are prohibitions against applause,cheering and booing during the debate, which Trump plays off of.
++Josh Marshall commented today that we should not expect Trump to come across as unhinged. Josh writes that he didn't drug the Republican debates and that his off-the-wall statements are on the campaign trail. He also doesn't think Trump can go for a knock out punch because he has to pretend he is presidential.
++Hillary is substantial on policy but given to going into the weeds. She has to be short and sweet. Obama handled this by telling viewers go to his policy handbook for the details. Hillary can do the same and say everything is paid for. Obama made sure middle-class Americans knew they would not be paying more taxes, the wealthier would. This effectively neutralized the Democrats are Tax and Spend liberals. Hillary actually needs to weave this into her speaking,
++I think she needs to be aggressive in the first debate. This will have the highest ratings and in effect be the debate that moves the dial on the polls. The rest are a wash. Remember she is the underdog in the debate because she's female and ostensibly the "incumbent".
++She needs to "attack Trump's manliness". The idea is that Trump has support because of his male authoritarianism. In part that is the contrast with Obama's sophisticated rhetoric and political chess making.
++Hillary has to be snappy, make Trump hesitate, make him look indecisive. She can take in-coming because she has the advantage of being a woman and it makes him look like the bully he is. Be assured his handlers have cautioned him against playing the Alpha Male against Hillary. He may not be able to help himself.
++Hillary knows how to play head games. Her invitation to Mark Cuban triggered the Gennifer Flowers debate. The Donald was awkward with the only woman on the GOP stage. Expect that to appear in the debate despite all the advice.
++Hillary has to have a pithy answer to questions on the Clinton Foundation and the damn emails. To get bogged down is to lose.
++Josh Marshall remarked that this debate is one-on-one which Trump has never done and Hillary is an old pro at it. The trouble with this format is that it expects answers to a host of questions and not some soundbite, which favors Trump. It also allows follow-up by the moderator who contrary to Trump's assertions is a registered Republican of the Negro persuasion. which may make him uncomfortable.
++Marshall reproduced Trump's lengthy answer to a question on ISIS at the Commander in Chief Summit. As Josh pointed out he didn't know what he is taking about and,in those cases, he bullshits an answer. Hillary has to call him out on this but not make it a lengthy response.
++Marshall feels that Hillary does no good by bringing up Trump's birtherism or even his bigotry. If she is challenged by her remarks about Trump supporters, she can then answer about the alt.right, David Duke,and Trump's flirtation with these groups.
++The real pressure is on Hillary because any misstatement by her will eat a week's media time while the same by Trump will just be excused as that's Trump. She has to make Trump unacceptable as President. She can deliver her steady, consistent performance but she needs some memorable lines.
++I don't think she should go to her strength on foreign policy because Trump can point to mayhem and murder abroad as some American failure. She has to be precise in how she defends her stay as Secretary of State.
++If Trump raises the immunity for her aides on the email scandal, she shouldn't go lawyer on us. She should past him with his myriad of legal problem right now. Bribing the Florida Attorney General, Trump University,the Trump Foundation and the two sex cases. "Don't lecture me on corruption, you wrote the book."
++A Bad debate--like Obama's first with Romney--cost Obama immediately 2 points and then it faded. That's why I said she should be 4 points in the lead to neutralize a bad debate. By the way, I thought Obama didn't do badly in the debate but it is received wisdom.
++But there, remember we had already elected him and observed him as President for four years. This would be the first debate for Hillary and we don't have that as a background to judge so a bad performance may have a deeper effect.
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