++Sam Wang at Princeton Elections Consortium says that Sanders has to cut leads by 10 to 20% in order to get near the delegates to keep him in it. He says progressives who complain about Hillary's strength should look at the Donald who only has to get 35% tomorrow to have a clear path to the nomination. Hillary will win the Southern states with 60+.
++It's hard to believe both races may be effectively over by tomorrow night. Today,Republicans went nuts over thinking they woke up too late to Trump winning. The most vociferous among them have been the neoconservatives, who are backing Rubio. Jacob Heilbrun wrote in the National Interest how the neoconservatives started out in the Democratic party in the late 1960s and shifted to the Republican Party and cemented their control over the GOP's foreign policy.
In Commentary we had a full-scale assault on Trump by Max Boot, one of the biggest supporters of the Iraq War who linked Reagan's democracy promotion to W's policies in the Middle East==and therefore Rubio is the man and Trump defends tyrants.
The blood being spilled today was a marvel to behold.
Forgive me if the KKK flap didn't revv my jets. You have a man who claims he is "an acceptable David Duke" as the second in the House and Scalise's links with racist groups didn't make the GOP leadership blink. You have a whole party embrace photo ID laws, whose expressed purpose is to suppress minority votes and you say there is no room for bigotry in the party?
Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo captured the essence of this initial revulsion of some moderate Republicans to Donald support from white supremacists. He said after all these years there was a hate debt built up in the party that is finally being acted out. It was acceptable to engage in racial dog whistles,the foodstamp recipient who flies to Hawaii--that's a twofer--you get a reference to Obama in there. "The Foodstamp President." You try and delegitimize the first African American President of the United States at every opportunity and don't even meet with his nominee to the Supreme Court and you don't think the message is sent you are racist?
++In olden days the John Birch Society had been disinvited to the Conservative annual meetings. No more. The reason is that the Koch Brothers, who may have resigned from the John Birch Society, were members until the late 1960s, when the John Birch Society was preoccupied by African Americans getting the right to vote.
++Mitt Romney calling Trump out on his bigotry conveniently neglected he used the KKK in the Midwest to try and stop Obama's re-election. While Mormons relented during Romney's run to allow African-Americans to become ministers, the Book of Mormon is very clear about African Americans being the sons of satan.
++Politico did a Podcast with Al Sharpton about whether Trump really is a racist. Reverend Al is a Brooklyn boy and talked about the ugly racism in the boroughs in the 1970s and early 1980s. He said Trump inherited these attitudes and a view that he himself was being excluded from the Manhattan elite. This led to a weird desire of Trump to be associated with black celebrities like James Brown, Michael Jackson, and Muhammed Ali. So you have the phenomenon of a Dennis Rodman endorsing the Donald even though Dennis was fired from Trump's show. Al Shapton said that Donald Trump is "The Don King Of White People"and that Donald studied his techniques. It's why you see black preachers of the "Prosperity Gospel" support him.
++Another way to put it is that Donald is the perfect candidate for the South, where the white-black divide covers alot of mutual terrain. The Donald manages to deflect the racism by emphasizing racism about other ethnic groups but saying racist things thrilled his southern supporters. You had to see his Alabama rallies to appreciate his support.
++How much of The Donald recent surge in Texas is because of his mixed messages on white supremacists while Ted Cruz lectures on there is no room for bigotry in the Republican Party. We are talking Texas here.
++The Donald is the inevitable conclusion of the birthers,the Tea Party and the GOP's racial whistles for decades. He is not the problem. He is riding the wave of conservatives fearing the demographic winter for white folks.
++And you want me to vote for two Cubans against the Donald? You have to be nuts.
++I am voting tomorrow in Virginia and in the words of one African-American voter in South Carolina,"I'm voting for the lady because the men will have to treat her different."
Monday, February 29, 2016
Calling All Cars
++The GOP is in a panic. A Conference call was held with Republican governors because word is that the Donald may win 10 primaries tomorrow and doom any establishment pick.
Latest. Emerson College Texas Poll
++Everyone conceded that Cruz would win Texas but this poll makes it interesting.
++Cruz 35%
Trump 32%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 9%
Carson 4%
++Nate Silver suggested that Rubio might win Alaska but then Sarah Palin endorsed the Donald so go figure
++Cruz 35%
Trump 32%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 9%
Carson 4%
++Nate Silver suggested that Rubio might win Alaska but then Sarah Palin endorsed the Donald so go figure
CNN/ORC NAtional GOP Poll
++Trump 49%
Rubio 16%
Cruz 15%
Carson 10%
Kasich 6%
++Almost half the GOP voters say they would never vote for Trump.
Rubio 16%
Cruz 15%
Carson 10%
Kasich 6%
++Almost half the GOP voters say they would never vote for Trump.
Sunday, February 28, 2016
Congrats to "Amy" For The Oscar Win On Best Documentary
++Besides proving her father was a shit,this film gives you a sense of Amy Winehouse's amazing jazz voice. Tony Bennett appears in the film recording a duet with Amy. One fan said "It is the first time I heard a mature women's voice." Enough Amy to make you appreciate her talents but not enough to satisfy. Oh, she died because of alcohol, not drugs. She was warned if she took another drink she would die.
Nate Silver Predictions--Massachusetts
Trump Polls Only 98%, Polls Plus 92%.
Rubio 2%, Polls Plus 5%
Clinton 85%, Polls Plus 88%
Sanders 15% 12%.
Rubio 2%, Polls Plus 5%
Clinton 85%, Polls Plus 88%
Sanders 15% 12%.
Here,The Train A-Comin'.
++Hillary Clinton is starting to walk away with it. YouGov has Hillary Clinton at 55%, an increase of two points since last poll, and Bernie Sanders at 37%, a drop of 2.
The Betting Markets Correct Me.
++Yes, Bernie is 99% to take Vermont.
++But Hillary is 53% to take Colorado.
Hillary is at 73% to take Minnesota.
++On Massachusetts,Hillary is at 79%.
On Oklahoma, Hillary is at 81%.
++This would mean that on Super Tuesday, Hillary wipes out Bernie everywhere except his home state.
++But Hillary is 53% to take Colorado.
Hillary is at 73% to take Minnesota.
++On Massachusetts,Hillary is at 79%.
On Oklahoma, Hillary is at 81%.
++This would mean that on Super Tuesday, Hillary wipes out Bernie everywhere except his home state.
My Bernie Picks For SuperTuesday
++We know he will win Vermont. I believe Hillary will win Massachusetts. Bernie should win Minnesota even though the party and the two Senators back Hillary. I believe he will win Colorado. He will lose Oklahoma.
++Hillary ends the night with at least 10 wins and Bernie wins three.
++Hillary ends the night with at least 10 wins and Bernie wins three.
Clarification: Cruz said Either Trump's returns Shows He gave to Planned Parenthood or He has Ties With The Mafia.
++I am not sure which is worse. In fact, the Donald had relationships with the Chicken Man in Philly, a mafia don who gained fame in Brice Springsteen's song.
++Also with "Fat Tony" Salerno, not to be confused with Fat Tony Scalia.
++Will Cruz sleep with the fishes,tonight or stop in at Planned Parenthood?
++Also with "Fat Tony" Salerno, not to be confused with Fat Tony Scalia.
++Will Cruz sleep with the fishes,tonight or stop in at Planned Parenthood?
The Other SuperTuesday Primaries.
++Besides the SEC states,there are Colorado,Massachusetts,Minnesota, and Vermont.
++The polls show Hillary Clinton crushing Bernie Sanders in the South and Texas. We can give Bernie Vermont,at least one candidate will win his home state. Sanders expects to do well in Minnesota despite the very successful governor and two Senators backing Hillary Clinton. Massachusetts fluctuates in the polls. Sanders should do well in Colorado.
++On the Republican side, the Donald has over 50% in Massachusetts and he should do well in the others. Rubio's people say he has a shot at Minnesota.
++So Rubio with one shot at 11 primaries and he is the Great White Hope?
++The polls show Hillary Clinton crushing Bernie Sanders in the South and Texas. We can give Bernie Vermont,at least one candidate will win his home state. Sanders expects to do well in Minnesota despite the very successful governor and two Senators backing Hillary Clinton. Massachusetts fluctuates in the polls. Sanders should do well in Colorado.
++On the Republican side, the Donald has over 50% in Massachusetts and he should do well in the others. Rubio's people say he has a shot at Minnesota.
++So Rubio with one shot at 11 primaries and he is the Great White Hope?
The Trump And Sanders Phenomenon In Gallup's Finding.
++The collapse of the Republican Party has become dramatic with the 2016 debates. But overall in our society,there is now a record number of self-described independents. 43% of Americans are independent, 30% Democrats and 26% are Republicans.
++To give you some perspective,in 1994 when I was the President of the International Republican Institute,Republicans finally reached the 51% mark.
++In the Obama era,independents in by election were "leaning Republicans" who were too embarrassed by the party. Now with the erosion among Democrats,you can add the equivalent.
++It means the parties are under attack either because of the GOP's nihilism or the Democrats looking ineffectual.
++To give you some perspective,in 1994 when I was the President of the International Republican Institute,Republicans finally reached the 51% mark.
++In the Obama era,independents in by election were "leaning Republicans" who were too embarrassed by the party. Now with the erosion among Democrats,you can add the equivalent.
++It means the parties are under attack either because of the GOP's nihilism or the Democrats looking ineffectual.
Kasich To Leave If Losing Ohio,Cruz Says Trump's Income Taxes Show Mafia Connection.
++John Kasich has been accused of being selfish by staying in the race. He says if he uses Ohio he will drop out. That's three candidates who now depend on winning the home state as a path to the nomination. Used to be that was the least you can do. Nate Silver has Cruz at 83% winning Texas.
++The Donald said he didn't know who David Duke was so he wouldn't denounce. He also said he didn't know the white supremacists but in this country he's not surprised about anything. Later he said,OK,I renounce the KKK--Ok.
++The Donald's son Erick says Christie would be considered for the Attorney-General.
++Ted Cruz says The Donald's tax returns should connections to the mafia. No one knows what's in Trump's tax returns and this quoting the IRS about limits of audits or whether he can release his tax forms is just trolling. Ed Schultz, hardly a conservative , says actually they may show a refund because he has to depreciate restaurant equipment over many years. Any remarks by Romney have no relevance. Romney was about to endorse Marco Rubio and back out of it. He has been charging everything from Trump not giving to veterans to owing taxes. Remember Romney only released 3 page summaries of his tax returns after Harry Reid haunted him.
++Trump has been associated with the mob in Atlantic City and other places and this has been known for years. Construction breeds mafia. Lest we forget--Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and LBJ were linked to the mafia.
++We even have a great Presidential assassination that is linked to the mafia. JFK was probably killed because his family went against promises to major mob families.
++Since Ted Cruz wants to eliminate the IRS,how can he credibly source the IRS for his attacks against the Donald. Doesn't that boom-a-rang. Also Rubio and Cruz have released summaries of tax returns, not the real McCoy.
++See if I get pissed off enough,I might vote on Tuesday for the Donald. This is actually the source of his support--white guys that get pissed off at a non-functioning society. But I'm more pissed off at the private sector than government or any groups of people. But this frustration breeds support for the Donald and Bernie.
++The Donald said he didn't know who David Duke was so he wouldn't denounce. He also said he didn't know the white supremacists but in this country he's not surprised about anything. Later he said,OK,I renounce the KKK--Ok.
++The Donald's son Erick says Christie would be considered for the Attorney-General.
++Ted Cruz says The Donald's tax returns should connections to the mafia. No one knows what's in Trump's tax returns and this quoting the IRS about limits of audits or whether he can release his tax forms is just trolling. Ed Schultz, hardly a conservative , says actually they may show a refund because he has to depreciate restaurant equipment over many years. Any remarks by Romney have no relevance. Romney was about to endorse Marco Rubio and back out of it. He has been charging everything from Trump not giving to veterans to owing taxes. Remember Romney only released 3 page summaries of his tax returns after Harry Reid haunted him.
++Trump has been associated with the mob in Atlantic City and other places and this has been known for years. Construction breeds mafia. Lest we forget--Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and LBJ were linked to the mafia.
++We even have a great Presidential assassination that is linked to the mafia. JFK was probably killed because his family went against promises to major mob families.
++Since Ted Cruz wants to eliminate the IRS,how can he credibly source the IRS for his attacks against the Donald. Doesn't that boom-a-rang. Also Rubio and Cruz have released summaries of tax returns, not the real McCoy.
++See if I get pissed off enough,I might vote on Tuesday for the Donald. This is actually the source of his support--white guys that get pissed off at a non-functioning society. But I'm more pissed off at the private sector than government or any groups of people. But this frustration breeds support for the Donald and Bernie.
Arkansas GOP Primary
++I found two polls--one with Cruz up by 4 and another Trump by five.
++The most detailed poll was an online poll with Trump 31, Cruz 21%, Rubio 20%, Carson 15% and Kasich 4%.
++John Kasich says he thinks Trump is going to sweep all SuperTuesday primaries.
++The most detailed poll was an online poll with Trump 31, Cruz 21%, Rubio 20%, Carson 15% and Kasich 4%.
++John Kasich says he thinks Trump is going to sweep all SuperTuesday primaries.
Nate Silver Virginia Projections
++In the beltway "Marcomentum" there was speculation that Rubio might win Virginia.
++Nate Silver has Marco with a down arrow.
++It's TRUMP at 85% polls only and 71% at polls plus.
++Nate Silver has Marco with a down arrow.
++It's TRUMP at 85% polls only and 71% at polls plus.
WSJ/Marist Super Tuesday Poll
++The pollsters doubled back after the debate to see whether anyone changed their mind. The majority felt that Rubio won with Trump second. However,it did little to change the results.
++Georgia:
Trump 30
Cruz 23
Rubio 23
Carson 9
Kasich 9
++Tennessee:
Trump 40
Cruz 22
Rubio 19
Carson 9
Kasich 6
++Texas:
Cruz 39
Trump 26
Rubio 16
Carson 8
Kasich 6.
So Rubio is tied in Georgia for second. The Washington Post said that their wunderkind is trying to hang on Super Tuesday. Now we know about Tennessee--it's Trump.
++Georgia:
Trump 30
Cruz 23
Rubio 23
Carson 9
Kasich 9
++Tennessee:
Trump 40
Cruz 22
Rubio 19
Carson 9
Kasich 6
++Texas:
Cruz 39
Trump 26
Rubio 16
Carson 8
Kasich 6.
So Rubio is tied in Georgia for second. The Washington Post said that their wunderkind is trying to hang on Super Tuesday. Now we know about Tennessee--it's Trump.
Saturday, February 27, 2016
The Bloomberg SEC Poll
++Purple Strategies polled 7 of the most conservative states for Super Tuesday. Yes, the Donald isn't considered Christian enough or conservative enough but he tops everyone on issues who is best to fight terrorism,illegal immigration and build the economy. He is trusted more than the other candidates. Yet still a high percentage said they would never vote for him.
++The states are Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia,Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. 538 already has predicted Trump winning Alabama,Georgia,Oklahoma and Virginia. Cruz to win Texas.
++Here's the poll of all states, which is disappointing because they are combined.
++Trump 37%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 20%
Carson 8%
Kasich 6%
++Rubio's people believe he may win Virginia but even local polls show it is a long shot.
++The states are Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia,Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. 538 already has predicted Trump winning Alabama,Georgia,Oklahoma and Virginia. Cruz to win Texas.
++Here's the poll of all states, which is disappointing because they are combined.
++Trump 37%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 20%
Carson 8%
Kasich 6%
++Rubio's people believe he may win Virginia but even local polls show it is a long shot.
Bad News For Senator Shortpants--Tony Rubio
++Today it was reported that Rubio's SuperPacs gained $20 million after the debate.
++But both Vox ,538 and Princeton Election Consortium say after Super Tuesday the path gets even rougher for Rubio.
++If Rubio loses Florida to Trump,the Donald would have cinched it and humiliated Rubio.
++Quinnipiac on Florida today:
Trump 44%
Rubio 28%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 7%
Carson 4%
++Then there is the PPP poll on Florida:
Trump 45%
Rubio 25%
Cruz 10%
Kasich 8%
Carson 5%
++The Donald is scheduled to win most with the exception of Texas and Arkansas on Super Tuesday. Cruz probably will win Texas and Arkansas. It's hard to see where Rubio wins one early.
++But both Vox ,538 and Princeton Election Consortium say after Super Tuesday the path gets even rougher for Rubio.
++If Rubio loses Florida to Trump,the Donald would have cinched it and humiliated Rubio.
++Quinnipiac on Florida today:
Trump 44%
Rubio 28%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 7%
Carson 4%
++Then there is the PPP poll on Florida:
Trump 45%
Rubio 25%
Cruz 10%
Kasich 8%
Carson 5%
++The Donald is scheduled to win most with the exception of Texas and Arkansas on Super Tuesday. Cruz probably will win Texas and Arkansas. It's hard to see where Rubio wins one early.
Friday, February 26, 2016
Talking Points This Week
++Chris Weigant writes that we should expect a weekend of extreme viciousness from the GOP as they are moving to Super Tuesday.
++Today saw "Tony"--his mother's name for him--Rubio say Trump wet his pants at the debate. As Josh Marshall wrote,the Valet had about 11 hours of winning the news cycle and then the Donald squashed him like a bug. The Donald parodied Rubio's water bottle speech and said that Rubio was a nervous wreck before the debate. Then he unveiled his prize endorsement Chris Christie, who happens to be the President of the Republican Governors' Association.
++The GOP donors have freaked out en masse. They have hired a Miami consultant firm to plan an independent run for President is the Donald wins the nomination. Slight problem is that Texas and North carolina have high bars for signatures and a date rapidly approaching.
++The Bloomberg poll of the SEC primaries shows the Donald with commanding leads over anyone-clocking in the 40s, while Rubio and Cruz are stuck in the early twenties. Polls indicate that Cruz will win Texas but not necessarily all of their delegates.
++Weigant says that three candidates are depending on basing their delectability on winning their home states. Cruz-Texas, Kasich Ohio and Rubio Florida. But the problem is that Kasich is losing to Trump in Ohio and Rubio is way behind in Florida.
++Reporters in the Beltway are asking how long did it take for the GOP to get hip to the Donald and why didn't they have opposition research on his before. The good news is that the Democrats apparently have ample opposition research on the Donald. The conclusion was that the GOP lives in its own bubble and pundits were convinced that the Donald would fade or say something that would destroy him.
++Robert Kagan ("former Repubican and neoconservative) writes today why the GOP can't be saved but the country can be. He supports Hillary Clinton for that fact. Kagan riffs through the long list of the GOP's failings in the Obama era and how this all led to the creation of the Donald.
++The Donald won't accept an endorsement from the "Penguin"--Mitt Romney, who has been trolling him on his taxes. Let's face it--Romney got skewered by Harry Reid, fellow Mormon, who got tipped off by Jon Huntsman,Sr., another fellow Mormon who was pissed at Romney for not tithing to the Church of Latter-Day Saints and maybe he was pissed because his son was not getting traction in the GOP primaries. What does Romney know about Trump's IRS audit--absolutely nothing. It may or may not be anything but Romney certainly would not know.
++"Tony" Rubio has his own tax issues and he didn't release anything but the first two pages of his returns. Not confidence building.
++Chris Weigant says the Democrat of the week was Hillary Clinton for her win in Nevada and her tomorrow win in South Carolina.He also points out that Harry Reid endorsed her. After Super Tuesday, Hillary should be wrapping things up. A poll came out today,that she has a monster lead in Florida.
++While Senator Shortpants aka Tony Rubio is Nate Silver's anti-Trump, let's not pretend. Marco wants the government to teach children "Christian values",the same he applies his mistress Amber the Lobbyist. He is anti-abortion and would not have an exception for rape,abortion or the health of the mother. "I would rather lose an election than give up my pro-life position." Well, he's going to get his wish! He ignores climate change even though Miami should disappear into the sea within two decades. His Tax Plan gives huge tax breaks to the wealthy and guts the social welfare system. He's for cutting Medicare and Social Security. He will rip up the Iran nuclear deal,will wage war against Russia and China--good trick. He will keep GITMO open and restore torture. He would commit ground troops to fight ISIS wherever they are. He is for the FBI making Apple give them backdoor entry to this computer and cellphones. He adopted the mid-1990s platform of the New American Century which planned for the invasion of Iraq and Dick Cheney's energy empire. And that's your winning candidate.
++But Democrats should be warned about the Trumpeteer phenomenon. Yes, the Donald is supported by people angry with the Republican party. They are angry with the bank bailouts by Bush,the failure of Iraq,the ignoring of the tea party,the dysfunction of the Republican Congress.
++But as two Scandanavian reporters talk about on a liberal American talk show they having been following the Trump rallies and interviewed the audience. They found a good deal are former Democrats who lost their jobs when the factories left the country--hence Trump's mention of companies leaving the country. And they found many independents. The anger they found was similar to Bernie Sanders' labor, blue collar supporters. They also said that it did not matter whether Mexico paid for the Wall,the audience liked the idea. Anytime facts were brought up,the Trump supporter didn't care--it was just the emotion. The moderator asked whether the Trump supporters realized that it was the Trump's of the world who kept them down. The women replied that this did not matter. It was the "Other" who was at fault.
++The dangerous dynamic was set when the GOP did not condemn Trump's rhetoric from the beginning and set some semblance of civility in the process. Instead,they thought he would burn out. And, besides,I Have written they abandoned their Autopsy Report and made a full court effort to go all white. So why condemn the KKK or the White Supremacists?
++Steve Benen , now at RachelMaddowblog and formerly at the Washington Monthly,pointed out early on in the Obama years that the GOP was now practically policy-free and their obstructionism led to this day.
++There is still the bull your way to victory strategy which looks weak. Josh Marshall analyzes this this week on the GOP Senators insisting they won't even shake hands with someone Obama nominates to the court. It sounded fierce until political writers have been pointing out that this single act could lead to the GOP losing the Senate. Then mutterings were heard from various Senators that "well, they really didn't mean it." Now Senators won't take questions on the subject.
++The House Republicans wrote a prologue about what kind of healthcare system they want when they repeal Obamacare. Nothing new here that wasn't said ten years ago. And nothing that makes any economic sense or positively affects healthcare in this country.
++As we saw last night, the mainstream Republicans would allow Americans to die in the streets. This was a positive virtue while Trump was weak because he wouldn't.
++The conservative movement I knew in my middle age is Kaput. Your can sense it when you listen to these debates--no guiding principles, no ideology that makes sense--nothing. The National Review's indictment of The Donald had a hodgepodge of people who claimed to write as conservatives but are almost post-modernists in their identity. Glenn Beck? Throughout this campaign you have seen how they have come undone.
++This is a time we need Andrew Sullivan back dissecting the collapse of American conservatism.
++If you want ideological coherence,try Bernie Sanders' campaign. It makes sense but like all ideology it isn't political practical. Frank Luntz woke up today to find millennials are far more liberal than he ever dreamed. They don't believe in what made America great--which I don't know what Luntz means.
The most popular and admired figure is Bernie Sanders. My man President Obama comes in a distant second. Hillary barely registers but does manage to be more popular than Donald Trump. The rest of the GOP are no where.
++If you look at millennial broadcasts like The Young Turks, the complaint about President Obama was that he didn't go far enough,that he bowed down to the national security state, and that he only implemented half measures. The argument is against incremental change because it never becomes irreversible. This opens a fertile field for political discussion, where I find myself on both sides of the fence.
++But I find an almost anti-Obama animus on the Left deeply disturbing but also self-defeating. We couldn't have this discussion before he was elected.
++I understand there is no patience with the minutiae of the political process and how Obama has to weave his way against truly reactionary forces. But dismissing him is a bit rough.
++The Supreme Court fight has triggered a discussion--again--of how the Republicans still try and delegitimize our first Black President. I find the authors mostly late 40s to my age, who remember the civil rights movement. But anyone younger doesn't respond to this.
++What worries me is that political activism will be seen as a subculture in our society. The lifestyle chose of a few personality types with little effect on real issues.
++Today saw "Tony"--his mother's name for him--Rubio say Trump wet his pants at the debate. As Josh Marshall wrote,the Valet had about 11 hours of winning the news cycle and then the Donald squashed him like a bug. The Donald parodied Rubio's water bottle speech and said that Rubio was a nervous wreck before the debate. Then he unveiled his prize endorsement Chris Christie, who happens to be the President of the Republican Governors' Association.
++The GOP donors have freaked out en masse. They have hired a Miami consultant firm to plan an independent run for President is the Donald wins the nomination. Slight problem is that Texas and North carolina have high bars for signatures and a date rapidly approaching.
++The Bloomberg poll of the SEC primaries shows the Donald with commanding leads over anyone-clocking in the 40s, while Rubio and Cruz are stuck in the early twenties. Polls indicate that Cruz will win Texas but not necessarily all of their delegates.
++Weigant says that three candidates are depending on basing their delectability on winning their home states. Cruz-Texas, Kasich Ohio and Rubio Florida. But the problem is that Kasich is losing to Trump in Ohio and Rubio is way behind in Florida.
++Reporters in the Beltway are asking how long did it take for the GOP to get hip to the Donald and why didn't they have opposition research on his before. The good news is that the Democrats apparently have ample opposition research on the Donald. The conclusion was that the GOP lives in its own bubble and pundits were convinced that the Donald would fade or say something that would destroy him.
++Robert Kagan ("former Repubican and neoconservative) writes today why the GOP can't be saved but the country can be. He supports Hillary Clinton for that fact. Kagan riffs through the long list of the GOP's failings in the Obama era and how this all led to the creation of the Donald.
++The Donald won't accept an endorsement from the "Penguin"--Mitt Romney, who has been trolling him on his taxes. Let's face it--Romney got skewered by Harry Reid, fellow Mormon, who got tipped off by Jon Huntsman,Sr., another fellow Mormon who was pissed at Romney for not tithing to the Church of Latter-Day Saints and maybe he was pissed because his son was not getting traction in the GOP primaries. What does Romney know about Trump's IRS audit--absolutely nothing. It may or may not be anything but Romney certainly would not know.
++"Tony" Rubio has his own tax issues and he didn't release anything but the first two pages of his returns. Not confidence building.
++Chris Weigant says the Democrat of the week was Hillary Clinton for her win in Nevada and her tomorrow win in South Carolina.He also points out that Harry Reid endorsed her. After Super Tuesday, Hillary should be wrapping things up. A poll came out today,that she has a monster lead in Florida.
++While Senator Shortpants aka Tony Rubio is Nate Silver's anti-Trump, let's not pretend. Marco wants the government to teach children "Christian values",the same he applies his mistress Amber the Lobbyist. He is anti-abortion and would not have an exception for rape,abortion or the health of the mother. "I would rather lose an election than give up my pro-life position." Well, he's going to get his wish! He ignores climate change even though Miami should disappear into the sea within two decades. His Tax Plan gives huge tax breaks to the wealthy and guts the social welfare system. He's for cutting Medicare and Social Security. He will rip up the Iran nuclear deal,will wage war against Russia and China--good trick. He will keep GITMO open and restore torture. He would commit ground troops to fight ISIS wherever they are. He is for the FBI making Apple give them backdoor entry to this computer and cellphones. He adopted the mid-1990s platform of the New American Century which planned for the invasion of Iraq and Dick Cheney's energy empire. And that's your winning candidate.
++But Democrats should be warned about the Trumpeteer phenomenon. Yes, the Donald is supported by people angry with the Republican party. They are angry with the bank bailouts by Bush,the failure of Iraq,the ignoring of the tea party,the dysfunction of the Republican Congress.
++But as two Scandanavian reporters talk about on a liberal American talk show they having been following the Trump rallies and interviewed the audience. They found a good deal are former Democrats who lost their jobs when the factories left the country--hence Trump's mention of companies leaving the country. And they found many independents. The anger they found was similar to Bernie Sanders' labor, blue collar supporters. They also said that it did not matter whether Mexico paid for the Wall,the audience liked the idea. Anytime facts were brought up,the Trump supporter didn't care--it was just the emotion. The moderator asked whether the Trump supporters realized that it was the Trump's of the world who kept them down. The women replied that this did not matter. It was the "Other" who was at fault.
++The dangerous dynamic was set when the GOP did not condemn Trump's rhetoric from the beginning and set some semblance of civility in the process. Instead,they thought he would burn out. And, besides,I Have written they abandoned their Autopsy Report and made a full court effort to go all white. So why condemn the KKK or the White Supremacists?
++Steve Benen , now at RachelMaddowblog and formerly at the Washington Monthly,pointed out early on in the Obama years that the GOP was now practically policy-free and their obstructionism led to this day.
++There is still the bull your way to victory strategy which looks weak. Josh Marshall analyzes this this week on the GOP Senators insisting they won't even shake hands with someone Obama nominates to the court. It sounded fierce until political writers have been pointing out that this single act could lead to the GOP losing the Senate. Then mutterings were heard from various Senators that "well, they really didn't mean it." Now Senators won't take questions on the subject.
++The House Republicans wrote a prologue about what kind of healthcare system they want when they repeal Obamacare. Nothing new here that wasn't said ten years ago. And nothing that makes any economic sense or positively affects healthcare in this country.
++As we saw last night, the mainstream Republicans would allow Americans to die in the streets. This was a positive virtue while Trump was weak because he wouldn't.
++The conservative movement I knew in my middle age is Kaput. Your can sense it when you listen to these debates--no guiding principles, no ideology that makes sense--nothing. The National Review's indictment of The Donald had a hodgepodge of people who claimed to write as conservatives but are almost post-modernists in their identity. Glenn Beck? Throughout this campaign you have seen how they have come undone.
++This is a time we need Andrew Sullivan back dissecting the collapse of American conservatism.
++If you want ideological coherence,try Bernie Sanders' campaign. It makes sense but like all ideology it isn't political practical. Frank Luntz woke up today to find millennials are far more liberal than he ever dreamed. They don't believe in what made America great--which I don't know what Luntz means.
The most popular and admired figure is Bernie Sanders. My man President Obama comes in a distant second. Hillary barely registers but does manage to be more popular than Donald Trump. The rest of the GOP are no where.
++If you look at millennial broadcasts like The Young Turks, the complaint about President Obama was that he didn't go far enough,that he bowed down to the national security state, and that he only implemented half measures. The argument is against incremental change because it never becomes irreversible. This opens a fertile field for political discussion, where I find myself on both sides of the fence.
++But I find an almost anti-Obama animus on the Left deeply disturbing but also self-defeating. We couldn't have this discussion before he was elected.
++I understand there is no patience with the minutiae of the political process and how Obama has to weave his way against truly reactionary forces. But dismissing him is a bit rough.
++The Supreme Court fight has triggered a discussion--again--of how the Republicans still try and delegitimize our first Black President. I find the authors mostly late 40s to my age, who remember the civil rights movement. But anyone younger doesn't respond to this.
++What worries me is that political activism will be seen as a subculture in our society. The lifestyle chose of a few personality types with little effect on real issues.
So Much For Marco Rubio Winning The News Cycle
++Rubio is now Nate Silver's anti-Trump candidate but even Nate thinks it might be too late since polls show Rubio only winning Puerto Rico.
++A beleaguered Marco Rubio tried to do a victory lap on the morning talk shows but looked drawn and wan after his night's fight.
++Trump should have a billboard campaign in Florida saying,"Marco, who is Amber Stoner?"
++Do we care about the Donald's taxes? If you are a Republican primary voter, you don't and you don't care whether he hires illegals. This is meat for the major media but irrelevant to Trump supporters.
++The Donald said something true last night. He is bringing tons of people into the political process and he is gathering support from former working class Democrats and independents. That should concern Democrats. The Donald is getting first-time voters.
++It is peculiar to see GOP candidates attack the Donald on the woes of the Middle Class. Like the party cared for the past decade about the subject.
++A beleaguered Marco Rubio tried to do a victory lap on the morning talk shows but looked drawn and wan after his night's fight.
++Trump should have a billboard campaign in Florida saying,"Marco, who is Amber Stoner?"
++Do we care about the Donald's taxes? If you are a Republican primary voter, you don't and you don't care whether he hires illegals. This is meat for the major media but irrelevant to Trump supporters.
++The Donald said something true last night. He is bringing tons of people into the political process and he is gathering support from former working class Democrats and independents. That should concern Democrats. The Donald is getting first-time voters.
++It is peculiar to see GOP candidates attack the Donald on the woes of the Middle Class. Like the party cared for the past decade about the subject.
Thursday, February 25, 2016
PPP Poll Finding.
++40% of Americans believe Ted Cruz looks like the Zodiac-killer,as reported by Gawker.
One Glaring Omission.
++Maybe this says alot of the Republican electorate but no one mentioned or raised the question of why Trump had the support of the KKK and white supremacists. It would seem obvious to at least raise this issue when Univision had a reporter there.
Josh Marshall Says That Trump Dominated The Debate Despite Being Attacked.
++To be fair ,Josh Marshall said that the whole debate was a mess and that Trump didn't really make much sense but Rubio or Cruz had to mount such a devastating attack to stop Trump's momentum going into Super Tuesday. They didn't. Trump got to speak far longer than anyone because the attacks brought responses.
++Josh feels that issues like Trump university can become real but that neither Rubio or Cruz knew how to handle it.
++Glenn Beck who supported Ted Cruz in Nevada just changed to Rubio and VanderPlaats of Iowa who was for Cruz came behind Rubio.
++Nice inside baseball but the question remains where will Rubio win one,which Drudge, who is a Trump supporter,is touting as his lead story.
++Marshall felt today's story about Rubio advisers holding a Manhattan donor meeting to explain a scenario whereby Rubio would become the nominee in a brokered convention smacked of desperation.
++Nate Silver ,who likes Rubio,seemed to think it was too little too late. Especially when Rubio repeated Christie's takedown of him against Trump.
++The Washington Post had an editorial today pleading with Republicans to take down Trump and is was if they got their wish. But as Nate Silver said,Trump's floor seems to be 35% and his ceiling is unknown. He felt Rubio's attacks which seemed premature were based on devastating polls in the SuperTuesday primaries. Cruz leads in Texas but it's all Donald everywhere and by alot.
++Silver debated with his staff whether tonight would hurt the Donald. After two debates this year, his polls declined.
++Princeton Elections Consortium's Sam Wang didn't even post an observation. He basically has concluded that the Donald will have clear riding for the rest of the primary season.
++Josh feels that issues like Trump university can become real but that neither Rubio or Cruz knew how to handle it.
++Glenn Beck who supported Ted Cruz in Nevada just changed to Rubio and VanderPlaats of Iowa who was for Cruz came behind Rubio.
++Nice inside baseball but the question remains where will Rubio win one,which Drudge, who is a Trump supporter,is touting as his lead story.
++Marshall felt today's story about Rubio advisers holding a Manhattan donor meeting to explain a scenario whereby Rubio would become the nominee in a brokered convention smacked of desperation.
++Nate Silver ,who likes Rubio,seemed to think it was too little too late. Especially when Rubio repeated Christie's takedown of him against Trump.
++The Washington Post had an editorial today pleading with Republicans to take down Trump and is was if they got their wish. But as Nate Silver said,Trump's floor seems to be 35% and his ceiling is unknown. He felt Rubio's attacks which seemed premature were based on devastating polls in the SuperTuesday primaries. Cruz leads in Texas but it's all Donald everywhere and by alot.
++Silver debated with his staff whether tonight would hurt the Donald. After two debates this year, his polls declined.
++Princeton Elections Consortium's Sam Wang didn't even post an observation. He basically has concluded that the Donald will have clear riding for the rest of the primary season.
The Last GOP Debate Before Super Tuesday
++Drudge has it that Trump won with 63.89% of the vote,Cruz 17.82%, Rubio has 12.7%. Kasich got 3.9%,Carson got 1.98%.
++The subject matter didn't deal with anything that Americans could fathom. Rubio and Cruz attacked the Donald throughout the debate but I felt Trump dominated.
++I actually was for Trump's explanation about not releasing his tax returns while they are being audited. In fact,Carson piped in with his audit story.
++Rubio tried to hit Trump with hiring illegal immigrants,citing his mother was a waitress.
++Josh Marshall felt that Rubio and Cruz lost themselves in their attacks. Trump called Rubio a "chock artist" and Cruz a "liar". Both men just complained that Trump just insults people.
++After the debate, Andrew Cuomo interviewed the Donald who said he liked the process and the debate format but CNN was unfair to Dr. Carson, whom they ignored.
++Kasich did his "Moderate" governor schtick. He's not.
++The Donald asserted no one would die on the streets of America during his presidency and Cruz and Rubio can allow that to happen.
++Univision went after Trump for his standing among Hispanics. Trump just bluffed his way out of it while Cruz and Rubio tried to downplay their Hispanic nature.
++I felt Trump did what he had to to maintain his momentum through Super Tuesday. Trump thought some people should drop out. He was explicitly referring to Rubio.
++Trump's statement about being neutral in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict brought fire from Rubio and Cruz who pledged they would always take Israel's side. I thought Trump got the better of them by saying he gave more money to Israel than either one of them.
++Trump said he changed his style tonight because his abrasive style got him to this point but he wanted the focus on policy. Because policy is easy for him since he graduated from the best schools.
++I felt Romney's persistent tweets even through the debate on Trump's taxes would do either Rubio or Cruz any good. Trump's response is that Romney was a horrible candidate who should have beat President Obama, a sentiment shared by Republicans. Although by mid-summer of 2012, it was clear Romney could not win, despite Karl Rove's election night tantrum on Fox News.
++Trump is winning the GOP primaries because he has none of the baggage of the GOP past,which Rubio and Cruz must maintain.
++I also felt that Rubio and Cruz were obnoxious in their attacks of Trump. They came across as unlikeable and going for the soundbite.
++The subject matter didn't deal with anything that Americans could fathom. Rubio and Cruz attacked the Donald throughout the debate but I felt Trump dominated.
++I actually was for Trump's explanation about not releasing his tax returns while they are being audited. In fact,Carson piped in with his audit story.
++Rubio tried to hit Trump with hiring illegal immigrants,citing his mother was a waitress.
++Josh Marshall felt that Rubio and Cruz lost themselves in their attacks. Trump called Rubio a "chock artist" and Cruz a "liar". Both men just complained that Trump just insults people.
++After the debate, Andrew Cuomo interviewed the Donald who said he liked the process and the debate format but CNN was unfair to Dr. Carson, whom they ignored.
++Kasich did his "Moderate" governor schtick. He's not.
++The Donald asserted no one would die on the streets of America during his presidency and Cruz and Rubio can allow that to happen.
++Univision went after Trump for his standing among Hispanics. Trump just bluffed his way out of it while Cruz and Rubio tried to downplay their Hispanic nature.
++I felt Trump did what he had to to maintain his momentum through Super Tuesday. Trump thought some people should drop out. He was explicitly referring to Rubio.
++Trump's statement about being neutral in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict brought fire from Rubio and Cruz who pledged they would always take Israel's side. I thought Trump got the better of them by saying he gave more money to Israel than either one of them.
++Trump said he changed his style tonight because his abrasive style got him to this point but he wanted the focus on policy. Because policy is easy for him since he graduated from the best schools.
++I felt Romney's persistent tweets even through the debate on Trump's taxes would do either Rubio or Cruz any good. Trump's response is that Romney was a horrible candidate who should have beat President Obama, a sentiment shared by Republicans. Although by mid-summer of 2012, it was clear Romney could not win, despite Karl Rove's election night tantrum on Fox News.
++Trump is winning the GOP primaries because he has none of the baggage of the GOP past,which Rubio and Cruz must maintain.
++I also felt that Rubio and Cruz were obnoxious in their attacks of Trump. They came across as unlikeable and going for the soundbite.
Wisconsin Poll
++Sanders 44%, Clinton 43%.
++Trump 30%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 19%
Kasich 8%
Carson 8%
Bush 3%
++Trump 30%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 19%
Kasich 8%
Carson 8%
Bush 3%
Before the Debate--scandal hits Rubio.
++What Jeb was sniffing around before he dropped out was the allegations that Marco Rubio had an affair with D.C. lobbyist Amber Stoner. And he charged their airfares 17 times on the party's AMEX. Both going and coming from the same places.
++A joke going around--The Major donors don't think Rubio came stop Trump,they just think he's the valet.
++David Duke thinks if I don't vote Trump,I am a traitor to my heritage. Instead,I just watched the latest MacBeth and found I am OK with my heritage which was pretty bloodthirsty.
++Raffi Cruz' father Pastor Looneytunes say that evangelicals who vote for Trump are not right with the word of God.
++A joke going around--The Major donors don't think Rubio came stop Trump,they just think he's the valet.
++David Duke thinks if I don't vote Trump,I am a traitor to my heritage. Instead,I just watched the latest MacBeth and found I am OK with my heritage which was pretty bloodthirsty.
++Raffi Cruz' father Pastor Looneytunes say that evangelicals who vote for Trump are not right with the word of God.
538 Projections.
++South Carolina. Clinton over 99%
Arkansas Clinton 98%
Georgia Clinton over 99%.
Massachusetts Clinton 61%
Oklahoma Clinton 79%
Tennessee Clinton 98%
Texas Clinton over 99%
Virginia Clinton 98%
Arkansas Clinton 98%
Georgia Clinton over 99%.
Massachusetts Clinton 61%
Oklahoma Clinton 79%
Tennessee Clinton 98%
Texas Clinton over 99%
Virginia Clinton 98%
Florida--Rubio's Firewall
++Rubio is right that you don't have to win all the primaries to win the nomination but he was betting on his home state.
++Quinnipiac Poll on Florida:
Trump 44%
Rubio 28%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 7%
Carson 4%
++Quinnipiac Poll on Florida:
Trump 44%
Rubio 28%
Cruz 12%
Kasich 7%
Carson 4%
Franklin&Marshall. Pennsylvania Poll
++Clinton 48%,Sanders 27%,Undecided 18%.
++Trump 22%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 15%
Cruz 12%
Carson 6%
JEB! 4%
++Trump 22%
Rubio 16%
Kasich 15%
Cruz 12%
Carson 6%
JEB! 4%
Pulse/American Statesman--Texas Poll
++Clinton 66%, Sanders 26%.
++Cruz 38%
Trump 26%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%
++Cruz 38%
Trump 26%
Rubio 13%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Trump Wins Third In A Row With Massive Turnout
++The Donald won with his largest percent ever. He is now off to barnstorm the South for Super Tuesday.
++It is tough to see what solace either Cruz or Rubio take from losing by tenth-something points.
++The Donald is set to run a string which makes him the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nomination.
++It is tough to see what solace either Cruz or Rubio take from losing by tenth-something points.
++The Donald is set to run a string which makes him the prohibitive favorite for the GOP nomination.
John Ralston Doesn't Think There Will Be Results Tonight.
++ 77% of Nevada Caucus goers want an outsider. The Majority of voters are over 65.
++Best coverage is the Guardian, which captures the looney nature of this "sh*tstorm".
++The Ballots are printed courtesy of a congressional candidate. The local GOP says it is not illegal for campaign staff to wear their candidates' gear. They will investigate double voting but they claim it is only in select precincts.
++The KKK members showed up for Trump in their sheets. The Guardian has photos of them.
++Marco Rubio is in Michigan. Cruz' campaign says third would be a victory for them--out of five candidates.
++I guess losing is the new winning.
People at the Trump party are getting drunk. "Let's Make America Drunk Again" is their new slogan.
++Best coverage is the Guardian, which captures the looney nature of this "sh*tstorm".
++The Ballots are printed courtesy of a congressional candidate. The local GOP says it is not illegal for campaign staff to wear their candidates' gear. They will investigate double voting but they claim it is only in select precincts.
++The KKK members showed up for Trump in their sheets. The Guardian has photos of them.
++Marco Rubio is in Michigan. Cruz' campaign says third would be a victory for them--out of five candidates.
++I guess losing is the new winning.
People at the Trump party are getting drunk. "Let's Make America Drunk Again" is their new slogan.
Caucus Chaos
++Multiple voting,randomly handing out ballots,party officials in campaign gear. Several sites ran out of ballots and voters denied vote because system didn't have them, even though they were registered Republicans their whole life. Several observers spotted people voting for Trump multiple times. It is just like Haiti, the worst elections I have ever observed.
And You Want These Guys To Run America?
++The networks are now reporting massive irregularities in the Nevada Caucus. The KKK showed up in force and party officials say they can't control the process. Too many have turned out. It's looking like the Haitian runoff election for President.
Nevada Sh**Show--The Third World At Its Best
++I'm used to seeing poll workers where candidate shirts and not check ID and allow multiple voting. The GOP caucus in Nevada makes their Iowa one looked Prussian in practice. Long lines,camera shots of ballots and later an informal check up to confirm.
++Virtually anyone can win this thing even though the Donald leads polling with 40%. Candidates were campaigning as voters lined up. The Donald walked into Glenn Beck campaigning for Cruz and stole the show.
++Donald poll watchers were out in force with their teeshirts and hats.
++This is the way Third World elections looked during the 1990s. They have progressed since then. But we shouldn't think the GOP cares much for the franchise while leading the nation in voter suppression and Voter ID laws.
++The early Nevada scene makes stories of Chicago look tame.
++Virtually anyone can win this thing even though the Donald leads polling with 40%. Candidates were campaigning as voters lined up. The Donald walked into Glenn Beck campaigning for Cruz and stole the show.
++Donald poll watchers were out in force with their teeshirts and hats.
++This is the way Third World elections looked during the 1990s. They have progressed since then. But we shouldn't think the GOP cares much for the franchise while leading the nation in voter suppression and Voter ID laws.
++The early Nevada scene makes stories of Chicago look tame.
President Obama Releases Plan To Close Gitmo
++President Obama was legally bound by Congress to develop a plan with the Pentagon to close the Gitmo detention center. The plan avoided the controversy of the past by saying the remaining prisoners would be sent to Supermax prions. Instead the Pentagon would build a new far facility.
++Darryl Issa immediately told the Pentagon to disobey orders and that the plan was another "Trail of tears". I'm surprised he didn't say Holocaust.
++The plan is DOA as even John McCain who pretended to be interested in closing the Cuban facility rejected it.
++Darryl Issa immediately told the Pentagon to disobey orders and that the plan was another "Trail of tears". I'm surprised he didn't say Holocaust.
++The plan is DOA as even John McCain who pretended to be interested in closing the Cuban facility rejected it.
Monday, February 22, 2016
The Washingtonpost: What State Will Rubio Win?
++In a lengthy article, Sean Sullivan outlines the new support Rubio has from the Bush donors and the campaign's strategy.
++Rubio has announced yesterday that the real primaries start now since he hasn't won one yet. The campaign is aiming to build their delegate count. He's in third by winning over 20% in the next few primaries.
++When's he going to win? Well,I'm glad you asked that. They are aiming for the Florida primary which is winner take all, and Ohio if Kasich drops out. That's a far cry from being the future of the Republican party. He's not planning on winning much on Super Tuesday.
++Rubio has announced yesterday that the real primaries start now since he hasn't won one yet. The campaign is aiming to build their delegate count. He's in third by winning over 20% in the next few primaries.
++When's he going to win? Well,I'm glad you asked that. They are aiming for the Florida primary which is winner take all, and Ohio if Kasich drops out. That's a far cry from being the future of the Republican party. He's not planning on winning much on Super Tuesday.
Nevada Polls For GOP
++RCP average:
Trump 42%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%
GRAVIS:
Trump 39%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 9%
Carson 5%
CNN/ORC:
Trump 45%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 17%
Carson 7%
Kasich 5%
Bob Dole Endorsed Marco Rubio today.
Governor Tom Ridge Endorsed John Kasich/
Trump 42%
Cruz 20%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 7%
Carson 6%
GRAVIS:
Trump 39%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 19%
Kasich 9%
Carson 5%
CNN/ORC:
Trump 45%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 17%
Carson 7%
Kasich 5%
Bob Dole Endorsed Marco Rubio today.
Governor Tom Ridge Endorsed John Kasich/
Sunday, February 21, 2016
Ed Kilgore Reminds Us It Is Trump's Race To Lose.
++Settled in at his new home at New York magazine,Ed Kilgore reminds us that Rubio has to win one of these days. He points to the southern primaries coming up which are contests between Trump and Cruz. Rubio may not get up for air until the more bluer states and then it would be too late.
New Emerson College Poll (Massachusetts)
Republicans: Trump 50%, Rubio 16%
Democrats: Clinton 46%, Sanders 46%.
Democrats: Clinton 46%, Sanders 46%.
Read Sam Wang On The South Carolina/Nevada Thread
++Sam Wang says two cakes were baked last night, He reproduces a photo of the Donald and Hillary at his wedding. Get used to it.He says he might as well take off until June.
++He said the trajectory for Bernie Sanders is not good and that Hillary only needs 46% of primary voters. Sanders showing in Nevada was far below what he needed to have a path to the nomination.
++The Donald could have a majority of the delegates for the Republican nomination by mid-March.
++Sam Wang says only something seismic will disturb the trajectory of both candidates.
++And yes the Donald won all delegates in South Carolina. It makes Ben Carson's goofy statement that he did just as well as Rubio and Cruz true. All three got Zero delegates.
++He said the trajectory for Bernie Sanders is not good and that Hillary only needs 46% of primary voters. Sanders showing in Nevada was far below what he needed to have a path to the nomination.
++The Donald could have a majority of the delegates for the Republican nomination by mid-March.
++Sam Wang says only something seismic will disturb the trajectory of both candidates.
++And yes the Donald won all delegates in South Carolina. It makes Ben Carson's goofy statement that he did just as well as Rubio and Cruz true. All three got Zero delegates.
Nate Silver On Nevada Odds For GOP.
++Trump: Polls Only 78%,Polls Plus 84%
Rubio: Polls Only 10%, Polls Plus 23%.
Rubio: Polls Only 10%, Polls Plus 23%.
Saturday, February 20, 2016
Next week South Carolina
++The South Carolina electorate is the most polarized in the country. Next week we will see the Democratic side. The reason James Clyburn's endorsement of Hillary Clinton clinched the primary is because he has a vast network within South Carolina,"almost like the churches" which gets the African-American vote out.
++Hillary Clinton needs a crushing win and probably will get it next week.
++South Carolina is where Democrats hold President Obama at his highest approval rating in the country. It is one reason Hillary Clinton has not distanced herself from President Obama in her quest for the White House.
++At the same time,tonight moderate Republicans died. Interviews with Bush supporters in South Carolina said they would vote for Hillary over the Donald anyway of the week. It's something the Democrats will have to remember when they eviscerate each other.
++Tonight Hillary Clinton won with the massive support of African-Americans. The spectacle of seeing Civil Rights hero John Lewis being criticized by Bernie supporters really rubbed me the wrong way. I know John Lewis and am very proud of that. I find it very offensive anyone criticizing him.
++But what we are seeing is a generational gap in the African-American community with the old time leaders and the Black lives Matter movement. It has always been thus but neither will find satisfaction among the Republicans.
++We should expect an endorsement coming from Harry Reid soon. Bernie supporters accused Reid of tipping the scales in Nevada to Hillary Clinton. Maybe, but Harry has proven to be one of the most progressive leaders in Congress who gets things done or catastrophes averted.
++Hillary Clinton needs a crushing win and probably will get it next week.
++South Carolina is where Democrats hold President Obama at his highest approval rating in the country. It is one reason Hillary Clinton has not distanced herself from President Obama in her quest for the White House.
++At the same time,tonight moderate Republicans died. Interviews with Bush supporters in South Carolina said they would vote for Hillary over the Donald anyway of the week. It's something the Democrats will have to remember when they eviscerate each other.
++Tonight Hillary Clinton won with the massive support of African-Americans. The spectacle of seeing Civil Rights hero John Lewis being criticized by Bernie supporters really rubbed me the wrong way. I know John Lewis and am very proud of that. I find it very offensive anyone criticizing him.
++But what we are seeing is a generational gap in the African-American community with the old time leaders and the Black lives Matter movement. It has always been thus but neither will find satisfaction among the Republicans.
++We should expect an endorsement coming from Harry Reid soon. Bernie supporters accused Reid of tipping the scales in Nevada to Hillary Clinton. Maybe, but Harry has proven to be one of the most progressive leaders in Congress who gets things done or catastrophes averted.
"If Marco Rubio Can't Beat Donald Trump In South Carolina,Where Can He?"
++Jonathan Chait at the New York magazine writes that South Carolina has always been the firewall for the GOP establishment. Rubio expected to win there. He had the support of the Governor, the Senator and Trey Gowdy. It is a state which is hierarchical and the political elites basically tell voters what to do. Rubio also was suited with his belligerent neoconservatism to be a permit fit for a state steeped in the military. But he barely scrapped by with a second place win and no delegates. So where is the victory supposed to happen?
++Larry Sabato over at Crystal Ball writes in "The Hour is Growing Late To Stop Trump." Sabato said that the Donald is in an amazingly strong place to win the nomination. He says Rubio has to start winning because by March 15th, the Republicans will have selected nearly 60% of their delegates.
++Even the Donald says that a smaller field doesn't disadvantage him because he is going to pick up votes from the other candidates. They are not all going to go to Rubio.
++Sabato points out that after the primaries in the South conclude the contest moves northeast and Midwest. He proposes that Rubio think outside the box and offer Kasich the vice presidency--a Florida-Ohio team,which might bring this thing to a close.
Otherwise prepare for the Donald.
++Larry Sabato over at Crystal Ball writes in "The Hour is Growing Late To Stop Trump." Sabato said that the Donald is in an amazingly strong place to win the nomination. He says Rubio has to start winning because by March 15th, the Republicans will have selected nearly 60% of their delegates.
++Even the Donald says that a smaller field doesn't disadvantage him because he is going to pick up votes from the other candidates. They are not all going to go to Rubio.
++Sabato points out that after the primaries in the South conclude the contest moves northeast and Midwest. He proposes that Rubio think outside the box and offer Kasich the vice presidency--a Florida-Ohio team,which might bring this thing to a close.
Otherwise prepare for the Donald.
So What Have We Learned?
++Hillary should win eight of the next ten primaries. Sanders wins Mass. and Colorado. Nate Silver says Bernie should win most of the caucus' because they are in places like Maine.
++The entire Bush family lost tonight. Jeb brought his brother out of hibernation and his mother campaigned alongside him. A state that has been very friendly to Poppi and W turned against the whole family.
++The Donald joins Reagan,George H.W. Bush and John McCain by losing Iowa and then winning New Hampshire and South Carolina.
++WE should expect the Donald to win Nevada. Rubio will morph back into his Nevada Mormon days and hope to finish 2nd.
++Jeb!'s donors and endorsements will migrate over to Marco Rubio,who hasn't been attacked from the Donald yet.
++Did Rubio's late surge--we are talking about someone who got 22% of the vote--come because he told South Carolina voters he would deport Dreamers on his first day in office.
++Ben Carson said tonight he was staying the course.
++The whole GOP campaign now becomes who will stop Trump.
++Jeb had not campaigned since 2002 and he looked it. Trump tagged him early with "low energy" candidate and it stuck. He blew $150 million in 250 days. Astonishing. I wish I had some of that.
++It is no use gaming out the post-Nevada GOP race because pundits are now assuming a ceiling to Trump,while believing all other voters will migrate to an establishment approved type. Don't believe it.
++Wither Kasich? He wasn't in South Carolina tonight and is believed to stick around until Ohio. I can't see his money holding out that long.
++The entire Bush family lost tonight. Jeb brought his brother out of hibernation and his mother campaigned alongside him. A state that has been very friendly to Poppi and W turned against the whole family.
++The Donald joins Reagan,George H.W. Bush and John McCain by losing Iowa and then winning New Hampshire and South Carolina.
++WE should expect the Donald to win Nevada. Rubio will morph back into his Nevada Mormon days and hope to finish 2nd.
++Jeb!'s donors and endorsements will migrate over to Marco Rubio,who hasn't been attacked from the Donald yet.
++Did Rubio's late surge--we are talking about someone who got 22% of the vote--come because he told South Carolina voters he would deport Dreamers on his first day in office.
++Ben Carson said tonight he was staying the course.
++The whole GOP campaign now becomes who will stop Trump.
++Jeb had not campaigned since 2002 and he looked it. Trump tagged him early with "low energy" candidate and it stuck. He blew $150 million in 250 days. Astonishing. I wish I had some of that.
++It is no use gaming out the post-Nevada GOP race because pundits are now assuming a ceiling to Trump,while believing all other voters will migrate to an establishment approved type. Don't believe it.
++Wither Kasich? He wasn't in South Carolina tonight and is believed to stick around until Ohio. I can't see his money holding out that long.
South Carolina Exit Polls
++Trump 31%, Cruz 27%,Rubio 23%, Bush 7%.
++Is Cruz' showing because of his robocalls against Trump and Rubio? As Ezra Klein wrote earlier in the day,if Cruz doesn't win, he has serious problems from here on out.
++Trump looks likes he will win but his lead is far lower than the polling suggested.
++Politico reports that "party elders" are trying to persuade JEB! to drop out. This will enable Rubio to pick up donors and staff. In case, you have missed it,the media and the Beltway pundits favor Rubio.
++If Rubio comes out in a decent position, expect a Mitt Romney endorsement before Nevada next week.
++Is Cruz' showing because of his robocalls against Trump and Rubio? As Ezra Klein wrote earlier in the day,if Cruz doesn't win, he has serious problems from here on out.
++Trump looks likes he will win but his lead is far lower than the polling suggested.
++Politico reports that "party elders" are trying to persuade JEB! to drop out. This will enable Rubio to pick up donors and staff. In case, you have missed it,the media and the Beltway pundits favor Rubio.
++If Rubio comes out in a decent position, expect a Mitt Romney endorsement before Nevada next week.
Sam Wang At Princeton Election Consortium On South Carolina-GOP
++Sam noted Rubio picked up 5.5% after Gov. Haley endorsed him. It's still the Donald . Here are the median polls: Trump 33%, Rubio 20.5%, Cruz 18.5%, Bush 9.5%, Kasich 8.5%, Carson 6%. Sam has Trump winning at least 44 out of 50 delegates.
++Sam thinks Rubio may do better as his surge came late. If Rubio comes in second, Cruz' chances of a big Super Tuesday are vastly diminished and basically his campaign is over.
++Sam says that candidates stay at least one primary after their chances are gone. This may be true with Jeb!
++Sam and his readers think Kasich will hang on until Ohio.
++The Donald will maintain the delegate lead until Super Tuesday and beyond.
++Business Insider had a graphic about whom to expect to win the next primaries. It shows that Trump will overwhelmingly win the bulk of them. Rubio may pick up Minnesota and Cruz Texas and Arkansas.
++The question today is whether the Donald over or underperforms on his poll dominance in this race. Survey Monkey has it 44% Trump, which I think is too high, and 25% Rubio with Cruz below 20%.
++Sam thinks Rubio may do better as his surge came late. If Rubio comes in second, Cruz' chances of a big Super Tuesday are vastly diminished and basically his campaign is over.
++Sam says that candidates stay at least one primary after their chances are gone. This may be true with Jeb!
++Sam and his readers think Kasich will hang on until Ohio.
++The Donald will maintain the delegate lead until Super Tuesday and beyond.
++Business Insider had a graphic about whom to expect to win the next primaries. It shows that Trump will overwhelmingly win the bulk of them. Rubio may pick up Minnesota and Cruz Texas and Arkansas.
++The question today is whether the Donald over or underperforms on his poll dominance in this race. Survey Monkey has it 44% Trump, which I think is too high, and 25% Rubio with Cruz below 20%.
Friday, February 19, 2016
Overtime Politics Poll--South Carolina
++ (Correction) Clinton had 47% in the Nevada poll.
++GOP South Carolina:
Trump 31%
Rubio 25%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 10%
Bush 7%
Carson 5%
++GOP South Carolina:
Trump 31%
Rubio 25%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 10%
Bush 7%
Carson 5%
Whither The GOP.
++Yesterday Red State said that the JEB! campaign said Saturday was the last paycheck. The Dailykos reports that JEB! has been on the phone urging patience with his donors ,banking on a decent showing in South Carolina. Today,Barbara Bush is campaigning for her son. But with 1% in the polls for Nevada,it is hard to see how he can move forward.
++Read Nat Silver's piece about what is at stake in the GOP primary and who is going to finish where. Jeb! thought he would catch Rubio. Nate warns us that primary polling is not as accurate as general election polling. And you can't tell about the candidates yet. The Donald underperformed in Iowa and over performed in New Hampshire. He actually looks in better shape in the South and the Northeast. Nate still has Trump winning South Carolina.
++Why is Ben Carson in the race? Silver argues that a modest showing by Carson tomorrow may wipe out Cruz with the delegates. It looks like the Donald may win all 50 delegates.
++Marco Rubio has gotten more mysterious. Yesterday he had the best line,"If I were in the Senate,I would be one of the youngest." He is in the Senate and one of the youngest. Ted Cruz,master of dirty tricks,ran an ad with Rubio shaking hands with Barack Obama. Apparently,after the Christie Hurricane Sandy fiasco with him hugging President Obama,the best thing you can do in the GOP primary is not to show your opponent shaking hands with a dictator but with the elected President of the United States.
++Rubio pulled a puzzler. He had an event with all his South Carolina endorsers yesterday and stiffed the conservative crowd while Tim Scott,Trey Gowdy,and the Governor were left holding the bag.
++John Kasich is not going to stick around tomorrow. He's heading to Massachusetts. Was his second place finish a fluke or is this it?
++Marco Rubio's spokesperson says tomorrow you will have a surprise. He says Rubio will finish third. So his new strategy is 3-5-3,instead of 3-2-1. His spokesman said that Rubio's campaign plans on going deep into July. In fact,Marco speculates he will win a brokered convention.
++This is Ted Cruz' last hurrah are majority evangelical states. And it looks like he won't win any delegates. Both 538 and Ed Kilgore point out that Cruz' road to the nomination is dim. The rest of the evangelical states are in proportional states while the others are winner-take-all. Even a Cruz win in Texas won't net him a big victory.
++Don't you miss Chris Christie? The whole GOP field looks dull and lifeless. The establishment won't come out of South Carolina cheering.
++It looks like the Donald winning South Carolina and Nevada. setting himself up for a large sweep on Super Tuesday. And he will basically have done it for free! Courtesy of the media. Stunning!
++Read Nat Silver's piece about what is at stake in the GOP primary and who is going to finish where. Jeb! thought he would catch Rubio. Nate warns us that primary polling is not as accurate as general election polling. And you can't tell about the candidates yet. The Donald underperformed in Iowa and over performed in New Hampshire. He actually looks in better shape in the South and the Northeast. Nate still has Trump winning South Carolina.
++Why is Ben Carson in the race? Silver argues that a modest showing by Carson tomorrow may wipe out Cruz with the delegates. It looks like the Donald may win all 50 delegates.
++Marco Rubio has gotten more mysterious. Yesterday he had the best line,"If I were in the Senate,I would be one of the youngest." He is in the Senate and one of the youngest. Ted Cruz,master of dirty tricks,ran an ad with Rubio shaking hands with Barack Obama. Apparently,after the Christie Hurricane Sandy fiasco with him hugging President Obama,the best thing you can do in the GOP primary is not to show your opponent shaking hands with a dictator but with the elected President of the United States.
++Rubio pulled a puzzler. He had an event with all his South Carolina endorsers yesterday and stiffed the conservative crowd while Tim Scott,Trey Gowdy,and the Governor were left holding the bag.
++John Kasich is not going to stick around tomorrow. He's heading to Massachusetts. Was his second place finish a fluke or is this it?
++Marco Rubio's spokesperson says tomorrow you will have a surprise. He says Rubio will finish third. So his new strategy is 3-5-3,instead of 3-2-1. His spokesman said that Rubio's campaign plans on going deep into July. In fact,Marco speculates he will win a brokered convention.
++This is Ted Cruz' last hurrah are majority evangelical states. And it looks like he won't win any delegates. Both 538 and Ed Kilgore point out that Cruz' road to the nomination is dim. The rest of the evangelical states are in proportional states while the others are winner-take-all. Even a Cruz win in Texas won't net him a big victory.
++Don't you miss Chris Christie? The whole GOP field looks dull and lifeless. The establishment won't come out of South Carolina cheering.
++It looks like the Donald winning South Carolina and Nevada. setting himself up for a large sweep on Super Tuesday. And he will basically have done it for free! Courtesy of the media. Stunning!
NBC/WSJ/Marist GOP Polls For South Carolina
++Trump 28%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 15%
Bush 13%
Kasich 9%
Carson 9%
Cruz 23%
Rubio 15%
Bush 13%
Kasich 9%
Carson 9%
Thursday, February 18, 2016
Quinnipiac National Poll
++Trump 39%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 6%
Bush 4%
Carson 4%
++Clinton 44%
Sanders 42%
Rubio 19%
Cruz 18%
Kasich 6%
Bush 4%
Carson 4%
++Clinton 44%
Sanders 42%
CBS/NYTIMES (National)
++Trump 35%
Cruz 18%
Rubio 12%
Kasich 11%
No other candidate polls in double-digits.
Cruz 18%
Rubio 12%
Kasich 11%
No other candidate polls in double-digits.
Bloomberg/Selzer Poll For South Carolina
++Trump 36%
Cruz 17%
Rubio 15%
Bush 13%
Carson 9%
Kasich 7%
Cruz 17%
Rubio 15%
Bush 13%
Carson 9%
Kasich 7%
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
The GOP Wobbling Has Begun.
++Alfredo Gonzalez, former AG under George W Bush, said that President Obama should appoint a supreme court justice to replace Scalia.
++Justice Sandra Day O'Connor urged President Obama to make the nomination. O'Connor had been nominated to the court by President Ronald Reagan.
++Initially Jeb! Bush said it didn't matter to him but then he backtracked on the idea.
++Orrin Hatch sort of said that the Senate would receive the nomination. He also said that while he thought Rafael "Ted" Cruz qualified for the presidency,the Supreme Court might not.
++It was Ted Cruz' full-throttled pledge to filibuster the process that sent GOP Senator scurrying. They really don't like him very much and the idea that he would be the vanguard in stopping the nomination didn't go over well.
++Republicans are now saying that President Obama should make a legacy appointment by nomination a Republican. The Name they have in mind is Nevada governor Sandoval, who appears to be a moderate Republican and obviously an Hispanic.
++The swing Senators who came out behind Mitch McConnell statement that President Obama shouldn't nominate a justice, appear to be wobbling with recent statements by Senator Johnson, Ayotte, and Kirk.
++The Republicans were invoking the Thurmond rule named after Strom Thurman, who coined the phrase in 1968 at the height of the civil rights movement. It refers to the Senate not approving any lifetime appointments the summer before the election. However, it is not a formal rule just like the Hastert tule has no binding effect on Congress. It's just political convenient for the Republicans.
++Another case they have cited is the Bork debacle. But they don't tell you Bork actually was approved by the committee and voted on by the Senate. Naturally, he lost.
++The conservatives are outraged--as always--that President Obama is not attending the funeral of Antonio Scalia only the memorial.
++Democrats have proposed nominating Elizabeth Warren or Amy Kloboucher to the Court. Others suggest that to appeal to Senator Grassley,President Obama should nominate Jane Kelly from Cedar Rapids to the court. Kelly was President Obama's classmate at Harvard Law and serves on U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C.
++Justice Sandra Day O'Connor urged President Obama to make the nomination. O'Connor had been nominated to the court by President Ronald Reagan.
++Initially Jeb! Bush said it didn't matter to him but then he backtracked on the idea.
++Orrin Hatch sort of said that the Senate would receive the nomination. He also said that while he thought Rafael "Ted" Cruz qualified for the presidency,the Supreme Court might not.
++It was Ted Cruz' full-throttled pledge to filibuster the process that sent GOP Senator scurrying. They really don't like him very much and the idea that he would be the vanguard in stopping the nomination didn't go over well.
++Republicans are now saying that President Obama should make a legacy appointment by nomination a Republican. The Name they have in mind is Nevada governor Sandoval, who appears to be a moderate Republican and obviously an Hispanic.
++The swing Senators who came out behind Mitch McConnell statement that President Obama shouldn't nominate a justice, appear to be wobbling with recent statements by Senator Johnson, Ayotte, and Kirk.
++The Republicans were invoking the Thurmond rule named after Strom Thurman, who coined the phrase in 1968 at the height of the civil rights movement. It refers to the Senate not approving any lifetime appointments the summer before the election. However, it is not a formal rule just like the Hastert tule has no binding effect on Congress. It's just political convenient for the Republicans.
++Another case they have cited is the Bork debacle. But they don't tell you Bork actually was approved by the committee and voted on by the Senate. Naturally, he lost.
++The conservatives are outraged--as always--that President Obama is not attending the funeral of Antonio Scalia only the memorial.
++Democrats have proposed nominating Elizabeth Warren or Amy Kloboucher to the Court. Others suggest that to appeal to Senator Grassley,President Obama should nominate Jane Kelly from Cedar Rapids to the court. Kelly was President Obama's classmate at Harvard Law and serves on U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C.
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