Mitt Romney still hasn't wrapped up the GOP nomination. He only has 35% of the super delegates and stands approximately where John McCain was after Super Tuesday. But the nomenklatura and the GOP establishment believes Romney is the nominee as does the Obama Campaign. So the latest parlor game is to guess his choice for the vice presidential nominee.
My hunch is that he will choose someone he thinks would be a good junior executive as if he is a CEO. This person must defer to his campaign operatives and never upstage the nominee. He will avoid a Sarah Palin pick like the plague because he can't afford alienating more voters than he already does.
While congenital wisdom is about compensating for one's flaws and a demographic lacking in your base. Mitt Romney will have to spend from May until the convention repairing fences among the conservatives. However, electorally he knows that all the Red States will vote for him anyway, even if they are skeptical about his religion.
Right now he is a whopping 19 points behind Obama among women voters. From the public statements by congressional Republicans and Romney himself,there is no awareness that this is really a problem. But, remember Obama only has to win 51% of the women's vote to win re-election. That should give pause to the Romney people.
Howard Dean suggested Romney select Susanna Martinez, the popular governor of New Mexico, to shore up both the Hispanic and woman's vote. Ms. Martinez has already said that she can't leave the state because she is caring for her disabled sister. Others have suggested Nikki Haley, the sexy Sikh, governor of South Carolina and a teabag favorite. She has a tremendous amount of baggage that would recall Sarah Palin. I personally do not think Romney is psychologically capable of selecting a woman.
Romney is losing to President Obama 70-14 among Hispanics. The Latino vote is critical in swing states, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and of course Florida. The only viable candidate is Senator Marco Rubio, the freshman Senator from Florida. Beltway pundits claim he is too young and inexperienced, neglecting to mention his long history as a state legislator. But Rubio has already hired private detectives to research his own past. Journalists who have covered him point to several problems that would have to be the point of immediate damage control. But electoral arithmetic demands Romney win Florida and Rubio would give him a real shot.
Another early backer of Mitt Romney is New Jersey's Chris Christie, who is a favorite of Republicans. But Christie wouldn't even bring New Jersey to the Republican fold. Besides Christie looks like an even more overweight William Howard Taft. And psychologically he is abusive and obnoxious.
That leaves us Paul Ryan. Romney and Ryan have chemistry together and among Republicans Ryan is considered "serious", despite the dramatic flaws in his budgets. But Ryan would energize the conservative base because of his strong ideology of cutting the social safety net and increasing the military budget. Dana Milbank thinks Romney doesn't want the negatives of the Ryan budget. I don't believe it since Ryan's budget is not as extreme as Romney's. I think Paul Ryan is in good shape because he was one of the "Young Turks" popularized by the Republican establishment. And he has taken on the role of the attack dog by the GOP against Obama.
Another person Romney feels comfortable with is the junior Senator from Ohio, Rob Portman. Both campaigned together throughout the state. Portman was the budget director under George W. Bush. And Romney has campaigned on the premise that President Obama caused the Recession. I don't think being associated with the former President is a disqualification among Republicans. After all Romney is campaigning with W's economic advisers and some of his foreign policy aides.
It will come down to what Romney feels he needs at the time of the convention. He has to be able to re-introduce himself to the American people. No one can take away from him achieving that purpose. He can't deal with enormous amount of baggage in his choice. His choice can't overcome his own weaknesses. He believes the economy is his "wheelhouse" and I believe he will choose someone who thinks along the same lines.
His biggest geographical weakness is the Midwest. Ohio is totally controlled by Republicans from the county level through the legislature and the governor's house. Romney can't win without Ohio. The question is whether Portman can bring him the state. His liability is that he is linked to Governor Kasich. In the Ohio primary, Romney only won the Republicans who earned more than $100,000. He needs to energize the large evangelical segment of voters and those who are middle class or blue-collar workers. On this I would lean to Ryan for a broader ideological and regional appeal.
The last person would be a wildcard to the Beltway Punditocracy. Throughout the campaign, Romney always said he would defer to the opinions of the generals on any military affairs. As seen by the Washington Post poll this morning, Romney faces a huge national security gap. Romney can unite the Republican economics and the social conservatives, who believe Obama is everything, including Satan. For the national security types, he will need to do something. He comes across as incredibly weak. Although a self-proclaimed Rockefeller Republican, General Petraeus is the darling of the neo-cons and the national security wing of the GOP. Having been the CIA director as well as the commanding general in both Iraq and Afghanistan, Petraeus would instantly solve Romney's national security problem. For Republicans, that would create some excitement for the ticket. And Petraeus would not get any blowback from the Religious Right.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Pollpalooza
The Global Strategy Group,connected to a Democratic group, The Third Way,polled independents in Swing States and found that President Obama leads Romney by 44-38%. The poll tried to determine the tendencies of those "authentically" independent, voters who cast their ballots for either parties, not leaners.
Among these voters, President Obama has a 57% favorable rating, while Romney only 41%. In 2008, President Obama won 57% of these independent voters so his present strength has not achieved 2008 levels--yet.
More Worrisome for Democrats should be the generic poll where Republicans have a 39-31% lead, which does not bode well for congressional races.
Global Strategy found that while President Obama polls well on current economic issues, voters were concerned about the future. Independent voters were less concerned about the issue of equality as opposed to opportunity. The general impression is that independents want President Obama to talk more about the future.
The Maine People's Resource Center released their state-wide poll. President Obama has a 52.3% approval rating with 43.6% disapproving. In a match-up with Romney, Obama wins 54.6% against 37%.
In their Senate polls, independent Angus King romps with 56% and the nearest candidate is 21.8%.
On same-sex marriage or equal marriage, 58.2% are either strongly or just favor same sex marriages. Only 39.9% oppose. Marriage equality will be voted on in a referendum this November.
The Michigan--EPIC-MRA poll served as a wake-up call to the Obama campaign. Obama has a 50% favorable rating but only tops Romney by 47-43%. Independents are leaning to Romney, while 35% of the people in Michigan believe the country/ state is heading in the right direction, a leap from 19% from last poll. The poll might be an outlier because others had Obama with double digit leads.
In all the polls listed by Real Politics, Obama has a lead over Romney and ,of course, over Santorum.
A local poll in Indiana might be the canary in the coal mine. The poll shows Dick Lugar in trouble against a tea bagger. But surprisingly Romney has a 9 pt lead over Obama. While Obama won the state last time, his campaign has long written it off as lost. Republicans have always won since LBJ by margins averaging 25%. The reason this poll could be significant is that Romney's lead will affect neighboring Ohio's margin in November. Unless he ups his Indiana lead to over 15 points, pollsters project he loses Ohio and that means the presidency. Ah, such much from a small poll!
Among these voters, President Obama has a 57% favorable rating, while Romney only 41%. In 2008, President Obama won 57% of these independent voters so his present strength has not achieved 2008 levels--yet.
More Worrisome for Democrats should be the generic poll where Republicans have a 39-31% lead, which does not bode well for congressional races.
Global Strategy found that while President Obama polls well on current economic issues, voters were concerned about the future. Independent voters were less concerned about the issue of equality as opposed to opportunity. The general impression is that independents want President Obama to talk more about the future.
The Maine People's Resource Center released their state-wide poll. President Obama has a 52.3% approval rating with 43.6% disapproving. In a match-up with Romney, Obama wins 54.6% against 37%.
In their Senate polls, independent Angus King romps with 56% and the nearest candidate is 21.8%.
On same-sex marriage or equal marriage, 58.2% are either strongly or just favor same sex marriages. Only 39.9% oppose. Marriage equality will be voted on in a referendum this November.
The Michigan--EPIC-MRA poll served as a wake-up call to the Obama campaign. Obama has a 50% favorable rating but only tops Romney by 47-43%. Independents are leaning to Romney, while 35% of the people in Michigan believe the country/ state is heading in the right direction, a leap from 19% from last poll. The poll might be an outlier because others had Obama with double digit leads.
In all the polls listed by Real Politics, Obama has a lead over Romney and ,of course, over Santorum.
A local poll in Indiana might be the canary in the coal mine. The poll shows Dick Lugar in trouble against a tea bagger. But surprisingly Romney has a 9 pt lead over Obama. While Obama won the state last time, his campaign has long written it off as lost. Republicans have always won since LBJ by margins averaging 25%. The reason this poll could be significant is that Romney's lead will affect neighboring Ohio's margin in November. Unless he ups his Indiana lead to over 15 points, pollsters project he loses Ohio and that means the presidency. Ah, such much from a small poll!
21st Century Mormon--Romney's Weaknesses
The Washington Post-ABC poll is out this morning and it is quite revealing about President Obama's strengths and Romney's weaknesses.
Deep in the tabs of the poll are character questions, which I believe eventually will become paramount in deciding the presidential contest. Here, President Obama cleans up.
Stronger leader: President Obama--46; Romney--40.
Likeable and friendly: Obama--64; Romney--26.
Better Vision of the future: Obama-45; Romney--40.
Inspiring: Obama--55; Romney--29.
Consistent: Obama--46; Romney--36.
On Issues, Republicans have lost their old stand-by--foreign policy and defense.
On international affairs, who can handle better:
Obama--53; Romney--36.
On Terrorism: Obama--47; Romney--40.
On women's issues the poll shows the gender gap others have recorded. Who can manage women's issues?
Obama--53; Romney--34.
On Health Care: Obama--48; Romney--38.
On Social Issues (abortion) Obama--48; Romney--38.
Karl Rove's group Crossroads yesterday remarked that President Obama was beginning to win over Americans to his views on taxes.
The poll shows that on the issue of taxes,
Obama is preferred by 45; Romney 42.
Who cares about the Middle Class?
Obama--49; Romney 39.
On the issue of jobs and small business, Obama has a slight lead over Romney. On the overall economy, Romney leads Obama by 47 to 43.
President Obama's approval rating now is at 50%. He would beat Romney today among registered voters by 51 to 44, and among all voters 51 to 43.
Romney's only strong suit is managing the budget deficit. Here he leads 51 to 38 over the President. And he has a slight lead on energy policy.
The reason the lead is not as large as the internal polling would indicate is that only 33% believe the country is heading in the Right direction and the majority believe we are still in a recession. Romney has an 8pt lead over Obama in males and a stunning 57-38 lead among whites without a college degree. Among the college educated, Obama has a 12 pt. lead on better understanding the economic problems facing Americans. Romney has a 48-46 lead over Obama among independents.
I thought the poll may have over-sampled independents and under-sampled Republicans. But the overwhelming impression was that Obama brings to the election character and empathy, which voters find lacking in Romney.
Deep in the tabs of the poll are character questions, which I believe eventually will become paramount in deciding the presidential contest. Here, President Obama cleans up.
Stronger leader: President Obama--46; Romney--40.
Likeable and friendly: Obama--64; Romney--26.
Better Vision of the future: Obama-45; Romney--40.
Inspiring: Obama--55; Romney--29.
Consistent: Obama--46; Romney--36.
On Issues, Republicans have lost their old stand-by--foreign policy and defense.
On international affairs, who can handle better:
Obama--53; Romney--36.
On Terrorism: Obama--47; Romney--40.
On women's issues the poll shows the gender gap others have recorded. Who can manage women's issues?
Obama--53; Romney--34.
On Health Care: Obama--48; Romney--38.
On Social Issues (abortion) Obama--48; Romney--38.
Karl Rove's group Crossroads yesterday remarked that President Obama was beginning to win over Americans to his views on taxes.
The poll shows that on the issue of taxes,
Obama is preferred by 45; Romney 42.
Who cares about the Middle Class?
Obama--49; Romney 39.
On the issue of jobs and small business, Obama has a slight lead over Romney. On the overall economy, Romney leads Obama by 47 to 43.
President Obama's approval rating now is at 50%. He would beat Romney today among registered voters by 51 to 44, and among all voters 51 to 43.
Romney's only strong suit is managing the budget deficit. Here he leads 51 to 38 over the President. And he has a slight lead on energy policy.
The reason the lead is not as large as the internal polling would indicate is that only 33% believe the country is heading in the Right direction and the majority believe we are still in a recession. Romney has an 8pt lead over Obama in males and a stunning 57-38 lead among whites without a college degree. Among the college educated, Obama has a 12 pt. lead on better understanding the economic problems facing Americans. Romney has a 48-46 lead over Obama among independents.
I thought the poll may have over-sampled independents and under-sampled Republicans. But the overwhelming impression was that Obama brings to the election character and empathy, which voters find lacking in Romney.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Happy Passover!
++Gallup reports President Obama hit 50% approval with 43% disapproval.
++Morning Joe's statement that none of the Republican establishment believe Romney can win seems borne out by a Pew poll where 59% of voters expect Obama to win,and 30% of Republicans agree.
++The Romney campaign's hiring of Ed Gillespie , the former head of the RNC, indicates establishment worries that Romney is not ready yet for prime time and doesn't have the structure in place for the general election. The GOP points out that Romney has burned through over $100 million trying to beat a fairly far-out candidate who wears sweater vests. They also note that while the Obama campaign has been laying down organizational structures all over the country, the Romney people are engaged in slash-and-burn tactics that leave nothing left behind for the general election.
++Gallup's Economic Confidence Index reported consumer confidence was at its highest since a year before Obama took office.
++The mediocre jobs report--120,000 private sector gained--brings the unemployment rate down to 8.2%. But this might not hurt the President as much as people think. A McCatchy poll shows that 57% believe the economic woes are still those inherited by President Obama, while 38% were caused by him.
++Quinnipiac, which generally assumes a larger Republican portion of the electorate than is real, reports that in a head to head Obama beats Romney in Florida by 49-42%, while Rasmussen has him up by 3,46-43%. In Ohio,it's Obama by 8 and in Rasmussen by 6.
++The Romney campaign claims they will not release anymore tax returns when pressed by the Obama campaign. The Washington Post reports that they use an ethics loophole so as not to report the extent and nature of his holdings. Locally within the Beltway, commentators are finally picking up that Romney's vast offshore accounts will become an issue for him. This is the first time I've heard reporters recognize that offshore accounts might be a delicate issue for the general election.
++David Frum has written that Obama has adroitly tied Romney to the Paul Ryan budget and wrapped the Republicans up in it as the Republican agenda. For reasons that escape me, the Romney people think embracing the Ryan budget is a winner, despite polls that show over 60% of Americans oppose each and every one of its points. David Brooks thinks this has made Obama look terribly partisan.
++RNC chairman Preibus denied the Republicans were waging a war against women. He likened it to a war against caterpillars. Romney says he gets all the feedback he needs on women's issues from his wife who talks to a lot of her friends. So no need to be concerned. Meanwhile President Obama hosted a woman's conference at the White House today and the audience was cheering,"Four More Years!"
++Morning Joe's statement that none of the Republican establishment believe Romney can win seems borne out by a Pew poll where 59% of voters expect Obama to win,and 30% of Republicans agree.
++The Romney campaign's hiring of Ed Gillespie , the former head of the RNC, indicates establishment worries that Romney is not ready yet for prime time and doesn't have the structure in place for the general election. The GOP points out that Romney has burned through over $100 million trying to beat a fairly far-out candidate who wears sweater vests. They also note that while the Obama campaign has been laying down organizational structures all over the country, the Romney people are engaged in slash-and-burn tactics that leave nothing left behind for the general election.
++Gallup's Economic Confidence Index reported consumer confidence was at its highest since a year before Obama took office.
++The mediocre jobs report--120,000 private sector gained--brings the unemployment rate down to 8.2%. But this might not hurt the President as much as people think. A McCatchy poll shows that 57% believe the economic woes are still those inherited by President Obama, while 38% were caused by him.
++Quinnipiac, which generally assumes a larger Republican portion of the electorate than is real, reports that in a head to head Obama beats Romney in Florida by 49-42%, while Rasmussen has him up by 3,46-43%. In Ohio,it's Obama by 8 and in Rasmussen by 6.
++The Romney campaign claims they will not release anymore tax returns when pressed by the Obama campaign. The Washington Post reports that they use an ethics loophole so as not to report the extent and nature of his holdings. Locally within the Beltway, commentators are finally picking up that Romney's vast offshore accounts will become an issue for him. This is the first time I've heard reporters recognize that offshore accounts might be a delicate issue for the general election.
++David Frum has written that Obama has adroitly tied Romney to the Paul Ryan budget and wrapped the Republicans up in it as the Republican agenda. For reasons that escape me, the Romney people think embracing the Ryan budget is a winner, despite polls that show over 60% of Americans oppose each and every one of its points. David Brooks thinks this has made Obama look terribly partisan.
++RNC chairman Preibus denied the Republicans were waging a war against women. He likened it to a war against caterpillars. Romney says he gets all the feedback he needs on women's issues from his wife who talks to a lot of her friends. So no need to be concerned. Meanwhile President Obama hosted a woman's conference at the White House today and the audience was cheering,"Four More Years!"
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Maundy Thursday at the Last Manatee
++The new slogan of the Romney campaign is "I know you are but what am I." Bishop Willard as the Zen master.
++Only 11% of the GOP are very enthused about a Romney candidacy.
++According to YouGov. only 35% of the GOP believe anything Romney says.
++Ann Romney says Mitt isn't stiff, "just unzip him and he's not stiff."
++Romney says President Obama has "Zero" ideas.
++Romney accuses President Obama of playing a "hide and seek" campaign.
++And Romney repeats the Karl Rove canard that Obama wants to end Medicare by cutting $500 billion--even though it was waste.
++Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah says that the Obama campaign will throw the "Mormon church" at Romney. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz says that Mormonism is off limits at the DNC. Too bad.
++According to the Barna group, which polls evangelicals, President Obama is likely to double his evangelical vote this year. In 2008, Obama won 11% of the vote. This year polls show he is likely to receive 22%. Maybe the Mormon thing doesn't go over that well with evangelicals.
++PPP has Obama up 51 to 43 in Nevada, which does have a lot of Mormons.
++Civitas, a Republican-leaning polling outfit, has Obama up by 2 points in North Carolina.
++The Gallup poll shows Obama leading Romney among independent voters by 48-39.
++Meanwhile Rick Santorum says that May looks like a good month for him. He claims if he wins Pennsylvania and Texas he'll be back in the game. While polls in Pennsylvania indicate Republicans like him there they are trending to Romney because they believe he will be the nominee.
++Nancy Pelosi predicts that the Affordable Healthcare Act will pass by 6-3. More court observers are starting to say that again. Eyebrows were raised when people in Wisconsin saw Tony Scalia hunting with Elaine Kagan.
++The right is in full Birther alert as e-mails about President Obama are now circulating en masse. Now they are back, questioning his academic credentials. Expect to see everything and the kitchen sink thrown at the man. Some day something throw against the wall may stick.
++Only 11% of the GOP are very enthused about a Romney candidacy.
++According to YouGov. only 35% of the GOP believe anything Romney says.
++Ann Romney says Mitt isn't stiff, "just unzip him and he's not stiff."
++Romney says President Obama has "Zero" ideas.
++Romney accuses President Obama of playing a "hide and seek" campaign.
++And Romney repeats the Karl Rove canard that Obama wants to end Medicare by cutting $500 billion--even though it was waste.
++Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah says that the Obama campaign will throw the "Mormon church" at Romney. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz says that Mormonism is off limits at the DNC. Too bad.
++According to the Barna group, which polls evangelicals, President Obama is likely to double his evangelical vote this year. In 2008, Obama won 11% of the vote. This year polls show he is likely to receive 22%. Maybe the Mormon thing doesn't go over that well with evangelicals.
++PPP has Obama up 51 to 43 in Nevada, which does have a lot of Mormons.
++Civitas, a Republican-leaning polling outfit, has Obama up by 2 points in North Carolina.
++The Gallup poll shows Obama leading Romney among independent voters by 48-39.
++Meanwhile Rick Santorum says that May looks like a good month for him. He claims if he wins Pennsylvania and Texas he'll be back in the game. While polls in Pennsylvania indicate Republicans like him there they are trending to Romney because they believe he will be the nominee.
++Nancy Pelosi predicts that the Affordable Healthcare Act will pass by 6-3. More court observers are starting to say that again. Eyebrows were raised when people in Wisconsin saw Tony Scalia hunting with Elaine Kagan.
++The right is in full Birther alert as e-mails about President Obama are now circulating en masse. Now they are back, questioning his academic credentials. Expect to see everything and the kitchen sink thrown at the man. Some day something throw against the wall may stick.
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Take A Walk On The Wild Side
++If you want to know what was up with Obama's blistering attack on the Ryan budget, you might want to consider the President can play mind games with the best of them. With Romney embracing the Ryan budget,Obama is calling him out and almost daring him to run with Ryan as Vice President. By late morning, the Washington Post gave credence to the view that Romney and Ryan have chemistry and the Romney camp is actually thinking about this. They know their candidate has to do something daring--even if suicidal. The Obama camp knows how toxic Ryan's proposals are in public opinion polls.
++Howard Fineman said that Obama was an unhappy warrior when he delivered his Associated Press speech blasting the Ryan budget. I happen to agree that Obama has not gotten into his optimistic future mode he will need to win this election. For the most part, he is better off letting Joe Biden slash and burn on the campaign trail.
++But make no mistake, this is going to be the ugliest campaign you've ever seen. Despite my posts to the contrary, you have to see President Obama as the underdog. He faces a united coalition of all the nation's billionaires and hedge fund managers, the Koch brothers and their oil industry colleagues,the Karl Rove hate machine and dozens of states with restrictive voting laws. On Palm Sunday, the Catholic churches read letters to their parishioners overtly criticizing the President and the health care bill as a danger to religious freedom. As we have seen through the primary season, evangelical Christians and the Mormons are fairly united against the President. Tallying up the loot, the anti-Obama side may throw in $2 billion to defeat him.
++I am getting the Obama "the Thug" e-mails again from the Right, which range from the resurgence of birther madness to righteous indignation to his remarks about the Supreme Court decision. The best anti-Obama piece was the Fox News anchor who suggested that Obama threatened to kill Chelsea Clinton if the Clintons raised the issue of his eligibility for president.
++The right-wing websites are putting up the line now that the DOJ's refusal to continue to negotiate with Chief Arapaio in Arizona is simply pay-back for his Citizens Posse which "proved" the president's birth certificate was a forgery. Of course, the DOJ investigation of the sheriff began long before he even decided to go the birthed route.
++ But about the Ryan budget, Obama was spot-on. The New York Times editorial captured the essence of it as they applauded the President for calling "radicalism" for what it is. The President said that Ryan's budget was a "radical vision" that "is antithetical to our entire history as a land of opportunity." The president said he would fight to restore a sense of economic security, while giving everyone a fair shot,rather than enabling only a shrinking number of people to do exceedingly well. He also said that the budget was "thinly veiled social Darwinism" and went further in denouncing the Republican presidential field for its cruelty and extremism.
++To give you some idea of its impact, Medicare payments would be cut to 1 million Americans currently living in nursing homes.
++ The Republican response is to say that the President was misleading and not factual in his criticism of the plan. Paul Ryan said he was hurt by the criticism. This seems to be a recurrent motif of the GOP. You can call the President and his wife anything under the sun but if President Obama turns it around on you, you whine.
++I don't know whether President Obama's remarks on the Supreme Court were the result of a leak or simply a way of him laying out his argument if healthcare is reversed. The first comments at his press conference with the Mexican and Canadian presidents seemed straight forward and fairly calm. He simply stated he was confident that the Supreme Court would ratify the Affordable Healthcare Act. He of course outlined the millions of Americans who already benefited from it. The remarks the following day went even further, saying that the Supreme Court has not overturned a Congressional act involving economic matters since the New Deal. I found that ominous as it seemed to me he was outlining his campaign strategy. He was, of course, correct and he knows that if the Roberts Court actually invalidates healthcare, then the Roberts" Court or Roberts' Raiders would be the most radical in modern history. However, Joe Biden before the president' comments of the two days said he too believed it would be upheld and said it in a fairly off-hand manner.
++Judge Edith Jones of the 5th Circuit Court ripped into a federal attorney yesterday demanding that the DOJ submit within 24 hours a three-page statement on the court's right to reverse Congress. The 5th Circuit is the most right-wing of our courts and the Judge was offended that the President appeared to attack the courts.
++The Southern Poverty Law Center just published its report on the rise of anti-government groups in the last year. It seems whenever we near elections, the radical-right mobilizes. Today, there are 1,274 hate groups in America, compared to the peak of 400 in 1996., when the Oklahoma City bombing occurred.
++Speaking of hate, the Planned Parenthood office in Gran Chute, Wisconsin was fire-bombed. Even Ricky Santorum found it in his heart to condemn it.
++The sexy Sikh South Carolin Governor Nikki Haley appeared on "The View" to talk about her new biography. She still says she is on Romney's short-list of Vice Presidential candidates. She claimed women were most concerned about the economy and "women don't care about contraceptives."
++Israel's Foreign Minister Lieberman in a trip to China said any confrontation with Iran will have to wait until 2013, suggesting we won't see a summer or October surprise on that issue. The Foreign Minister indicated that the sanctions were having a devastating impact on the economy of that country.
++Howard Fineman said that Obama was an unhappy warrior when he delivered his Associated Press speech blasting the Ryan budget. I happen to agree that Obama has not gotten into his optimistic future mode he will need to win this election. For the most part, he is better off letting Joe Biden slash and burn on the campaign trail.
++But make no mistake, this is going to be the ugliest campaign you've ever seen. Despite my posts to the contrary, you have to see President Obama as the underdog. He faces a united coalition of all the nation's billionaires and hedge fund managers, the Koch brothers and their oil industry colleagues,the Karl Rove hate machine and dozens of states with restrictive voting laws. On Palm Sunday, the Catholic churches read letters to their parishioners overtly criticizing the President and the health care bill as a danger to religious freedom. As we have seen through the primary season, evangelical Christians and the Mormons are fairly united against the President. Tallying up the loot, the anti-Obama side may throw in $2 billion to defeat him.
++I am getting the Obama "the Thug" e-mails again from the Right, which range from the resurgence of birther madness to righteous indignation to his remarks about the Supreme Court decision. The best anti-Obama piece was the Fox News anchor who suggested that Obama threatened to kill Chelsea Clinton if the Clintons raised the issue of his eligibility for president.
++The right-wing websites are putting up the line now that the DOJ's refusal to continue to negotiate with Chief Arapaio in Arizona is simply pay-back for his Citizens Posse which "proved" the president's birth certificate was a forgery. Of course, the DOJ investigation of the sheriff began long before he even decided to go the birthed route.
++ But about the Ryan budget, Obama was spot-on. The New York Times editorial captured the essence of it as they applauded the President for calling "radicalism" for what it is. The President said that Ryan's budget was a "radical vision" that "is antithetical to our entire history as a land of opportunity." The president said he would fight to restore a sense of economic security, while giving everyone a fair shot,rather than enabling only a shrinking number of people to do exceedingly well. He also said that the budget was "thinly veiled social Darwinism" and went further in denouncing the Republican presidential field for its cruelty and extremism.
++To give you some idea of its impact, Medicare payments would be cut to 1 million Americans currently living in nursing homes.
++ The Republican response is to say that the President was misleading and not factual in his criticism of the plan. Paul Ryan said he was hurt by the criticism. This seems to be a recurrent motif of the GOP. You can call the President and his wife anything under the sun but if President Obama turns it around on you, you whine.
++I don't know whether President Obama's remarks on the Supreme Court were the result of a leak or simply a way of him laying out his argument if healthcare is reversed. The first comments at his press conference with the Mexican and Canadian presidents seemed straight forward and fairly calm. He simply stated he was confident that the Supreme Court would ratify the Affordable Healthcare Act. He of course outlined the millions of Americans who already benefited from it. The remarks the following day went even further, saying that the Supreme Court has not overturned a Congressional act involving economic matters since the New Deal. I found that ominous as it seemed to me he was outlining his campaign strategy. He was, of course, correct and he knows that if the Roberts Court actually invalidates healthcare, then the Roberts" Court or Roberts' Raiders would be the most radical in modern history. However, Joe Biden before the president' comments of the two days said he too believed it would be upheld and said it in a fairly off-hand manner.
++Judge Edith Jones of the 5th Circuit Court ripped into a federal attorney yesterday demanding that the DOJ submit within 24 hours a three-page statement on the court's right to reverse Congress. The 5th Circuit is the most right-wing of our courts and the Judge was offended that the President appeared to attack the courts.
++The Southern Poverty Law Center just published its report on the rise of anti-government groups in the last year. It seems whenever we near elections, the radical-right mobilizes. Today, there are 1,274 hate groups in America, compared to the peak of 400 in 1996., when the Oklahoma City bombing occurred.
++Speaking of hate, the Planned Parenthood office in Gran Chute, Wisconsin was fire-bombed. Even Ricky Santorum found it in his heart to condemn it.
++The sexy Sikh South Carolin Governor Nikki Haley appeared on "The View" to talk about her new biography. She still says she is on Romney's short-list of Vice Presidential candidates. She claimed women were most concerned about the economy and "women don't care about contraceptives."
++Israel's Foreign Minister Lieberman in a trip to China said any confrontation with Iran will have to wait until 2013, suggesting we won't see a summer or October surprise on that issue. The Foreign Minister indicated that the sanctions were having a devastating impact on the economy of that country.
Obama Wins Democratic Nomination
++You would never know it reading this morning's papers. President Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination for president after the primaries in Wisconsin, Maryland and D.C. He has all the delegates he needs. Meanwhile, Willard with a clean sweep but a soft victory in Wisconsin is still over 500 delegates away.
++Ipsos Forecasting says that if Obama maintains a 47% approval rating, his chances of re-election are 85%. If he happens to be around 50%, the odds got up the 99%. Clifford Young, their lead pollster, says Ipsos is more interested in polling now for congressional races to see how Obama can govern in a second term. He basically views Obama's re-election as natural, unless some major event happens.
++Joe Biden supports this by saying they might lose if something major happens in the Eurozone or in the Gulf.
++In the latest poll, 62% of Jewish voters would like to see Obama re-elected. Only 30% support a Republican. 86% of all Jewish supporters of Obama will vote for him again.
++PPP, which actually got last night's primaries right, says that the enthusiasm gap has reversed itself and is heavily weighted to the Democrats. 57% of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting compared to 46% of Republicans. This margin has been getting larger in the last 4 out of 5 PPP polls. Among core Obama constituencies, African-Americans are now off the charts, women and the young had rebounded to 2008 levels. This mattered deeply in the 2010 debacle,when enthusiasm lagged.
++Last week USA/ Gallup poll showed that Obama beats Romney by five points in various Swing States. The increased margin is almost totally the result of women supporting Obama. Romney has a one point lead in men nationwide but a 51-38 lead over Obama in white men over 61.
++The Economy remains the key voter concern. It looks from preliminary levels that the private sector added at least 209,000 jobs this month. The official Labor statistics should be higher. And Fed Chairman predicts this year's growth rate will be a 3.3%.
++Electoral Vote.com is getting back up for this election. This is their electoral vote breakdown as of today.
Strong Democratic states --253 votes
Weak Democratic states -- 32 votes
Barely Democratic states -- 73 votes
Barely GOP states -- 13 votes
Weak GOP states -- 42 votes
Strong GOP states -- 125 votes
++Ipsos Forecasting says that if Obama maintains a 47% approval rating, his chances of re-election are 85%. If he happens to be around 50%, the odds got up the 99%. Clifford Young, their lead pollster, says Ipsos is more interested in polling now for congressional races to see how Obama can govern in a second term. He basically views Obama's re-election as natural, unless some major event happens.
++Joe Biden supports this by saying they might lose if something major happens in the Eurozone or in the Gulf.
++In the latest poll, 62% of Jewish voters would like to see Obama re-elected. Only 30% support a Republican. 86% of all Jewish supporters of Obama will vote for him again.
++PPP, which actually got last night's primaries right, says that the enthusiasm gap has reversed itself and is heavily weighted to the Democrats. 57% of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting compared to 46% of Republicans. This margin has been getting larger in the last 4 out of 5 PPP polls. Among core Obama constituencies, African-Americans are now off the charts, women and the young had rebounded to 2008 levels. This mattered deeply in the 2010 debacle,when enthusiasm lagged.
++Last week USA/ Gallup poll showed that Obama beats Romney by five points in various Swing States. The increased margin is almost totally the result of women supporting Obama. Romney has a one point lead in men nationwide but a 51-38 lead over Obama in white men over 61.
++The Economy remains the key voter concern. It looks from preliminary levels that the private sector added at least 209,000 jobs this month. The official Labor statistics should be higher. And Fed Chairman predicts this year's growth rate will be a 3.3%.
++Electoral Vote.com is getting back up for this election. This is their electoral vote breakdown as of today.
Strong Democratic states --253 votes
Weak Democratic states -- 32 votes
Barely Democratic states -- 73 votes
Barely GOP states -- 13 votes
Weak GOP states -- 42 votes
Strong GOP states -- 125 votes
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