Houston--We Have Lost The Narrative

You would think that Romney could do a victory lap once Santorum threw in the towel but instead he got himself embroiled in a whole controversy over the war on women. The fact that President Obama controls the 'language of the debate" is a big, big plus for the incumbent.


Yesterday started off with Romney being asked whether he supported equal pay for equal work. He couldn't answer and said he would get back to the reporter. Then Lilly Ledbetter blasted out an e-mail criticizing Romney. Then we had Romney's spokeswoman, a new add-on, say of course he did. Then Romney decides to do his usual--I am not waging war on women--It's Obama and then he claimed that over 93% of those who lost their jobs in the Recession were women and of course it was all Obama's fault. The Democrats pounced with everything from graphs to economic data. 


So ending the news cycle, we have Polifact claim that Romney's statement was mostly false. The Romney campaign demanded Polifact retract its statement. Then we had Romney's women surrogates come out and say how Romney is for women. The big problem here was that all of them voted against equal pay for equal work.


The Democrats made one slip up by saying that Ann Romney hadn't worked a day in her life. This allowed Ann Romney to join twitter and proudly proclaimed she made a choice--save that word for later--to stay at home and raise five sons--all of whom never served in the armed forces. Today Ann gets to defend herself on Fox News but she is still trapped in Obama's narrative.


How long ago was it that we heard Romney was the turn-around guy and the successful businessman. It feels like months because he has been dwarfed by the primary language about who is "Not Mitt". To date, he has no definition, no identity and no overarching agenda. And the Obama campaign is happily filling in the blanks for you.


Buzzfeed tallied up the approval ratings for all the challengers since 1996. Romney is in the worse and weakest position of all challengers. Basically, all the challengers came out of the primary process with net positives--Dole at 22, McCain at 19 and Obama at 18. Romney is the first to come out with a -12.


It's clear that the Romney people are hypersensitive of the gender chasm--not gap--between him and Obama. We haven't even approached the issue of reproductive rights yet and Ann Romney dropped the toxic word--choice--for future debates. 


The pollster for PPP opined that Romney is in such a deep hole for climb out of--he is far behind in key demographics and is challenging a President, who basically sits on his 2008 victory, minus Indiana and Iowa. He thinks this would take an enormous effort to crawl back, especially when you have to also pacify the Right.


The Romney campaign told the New York Times that the length and expense of the primary process cost them two months in creating a ground game and an organization. The Obama campaign started creating its ground game in the Iowa primary and has moved relentlessly forward with their efforts, even opening up offices in states which no one thinks are in play.


Remember Ohio. Rasmussen, whose polls always favor Republicans, had Obama beating Romney 48 to 40 there about a month ago. Yesterday, his new poll shows Obama beating Romney 51 to 40. No Ohio, no Romney win. Period.


While Romney was caught in his underwear yesterday with women's issues, Obama had fun with the Buffett rule, which he has renamed the Reagan Rule for the former President's support of the same principle. While the Buffett Rule has literally no chance to pass Congress and only serves to make the President's point about inequality, Romney bought in and claimed that the Buffett rule would benefit Warren Buffett. Not. 


But that hasn't stopped Joe Biden from now coining the Romney rule and flying off to New Hampshire showcasing the difference between President Obama and Romney. Throughout the campaign, watch where Joe Biden goes. He is stopping in small electoral states to prevent any loss there.


So today, the Obama campaign has celebrations for the sixth anniversary of Romneycare, which includes Deval Patrick in Massachusetts actually hosting such a party. 


So far in just a couple of days, the Obama campaign's reflexes have been sharp and they have responded instantly to Romney's miscues. It's clear to me that the Romney campaign is not ready for prime-time. It has come off as bumbling and not able to counter-punch.


This seems to be true about the feared Karl Rove. For every ad, the Obama campaign has countered by identifying whose behind Crossroads America's funding. But even with this torrent of negative ads by Rove,it's sort of pathetic that his biggest weapon is gas prices.


Perhaps the Romney campaign will find their sea legs. None of them have ever run a national campaign before. But so far--and it has been months--they have had no message--just that Mitt was inevitable. 


Right now the Romney campaign is trapped in GOP World and the Obama campaign is making sure you remember how extreme Mitt got during the primaries. Romney still has to make peace with his rivals before the party can be unified. And this morning a mine was laid on that path--a majority of Republicans do not believe the Afghanistan war was worth fighting. This plays into Ron Paul's campaign and undercuts Romney's desire to be the champion of the neo-cons. So all this has to be sorted out before Romney really starts the general election campaign and by then he will be behind the Eight-Ball.


Romney has enormous financial advantages--$200 million from the oil industry, $100 million from the Koch Brothers, $200 million from Karl Rove's outfit, as well as $100s of millions in his own Superpac. All of this will be thrown at President Obama. But the point of negative ads are to push up your opponents' negatives so as to be able to persuade independents to vote for you. 


Here we have seen the dynamics of Romney's attack machine--they have been effective at squeaking out victories in Republican primaries but at an enormous cost to Romney's favorability rating. If he does unleash an aerial attack on Obama, which everyone expects, watch his negatives go through the roof.  And we still don't know why he is running for President. 


The other aspect of the money juggernaut is that he has no control over it. He can not legally direct these people--and they are all cranks and very old white men--how to orchestrate attacks on Obama. So we start the general campaign without a ground game or organization,a total lack of control over the behavior of your allies, a lack of unity in your party,and a lack of message. I wouldn't want to be there.


The general objective for the Romney campaign is to strip away 100 electoral votes from Obama's 2008 totals. Right now he has to pray for a terrorist attack, Israel bombing Iran, an economic slowdown. He is total dependent on things outside his control.

George Zimmerman to be charged, if found

The state of Florida intends to charge George Zimmerman with the murder of Trayvon Martin, if he can be found. Yesterday, Zimmerman's attorney's quit since they had not been in touch with him and claim he has fled the state. This should make for an interesting bail hearing. 


The attorneys said yesterday they had warned Zimmerman from talking to the prosecutor's office without his lawyers present. He called anyway. Just as he pursued Trayvon Martin when the 911 operator told him not to follow the young man. 


I'll leave the lawyering to the lawyers. But it seems to me there are more questions than answers in this case. The crime scene was not secured, Zimmerman's clothing was not bagged as evidenced and the local police did not investigate. Who knows where the gun is? The only hard evidence it appears will be the autopsy reports. And the eyewitnesses seem to be all over the place with their testimony. 


Meanwhile, while the lawyers couldn't talked to Zimmerman, he updated his website, which is being used to raise money for his "defense", I guess, and managed to talk to Sean Hannity of Fox News to say he mentored African-American youths. Armed neo-nazis are patrolling Zimmerman's hometown allegedly to protect whites from black rioting. And the Black Panthers today apologized for some of their more over-the-top comments. 


Unfortunately, the circus after the tragedy seems to be just starting.

Obama Leads Romney by Landslide Numbers

The Daily Kos decided to post the aggregate poll numbers for the so called battleground states and concluded that President Obama beats Romney in a landslide.  President Obama wins 341 electoral votes to Romney's 197. A far cry from Anderson Cooper's prediction yesterday that Romney was close to 270.


For those watching Florida and Ohio, President Obama wins both. Despite today's Florida University poll showing that state as tied 43 to 43, Obama wins with the average of 48 to Romney's 42.1. In Ohio, another state Anderson Cooper said Romney wins,Obama has 48.1 to 40. And Obama crushes Romney in Michigan.


Also, New Hampshire remains Obama's by 49.6 to 39.4.


In the battleground states, Romney currently has leads in Arizona, Iowa and Missouri. Romney in Arizona beats Obama 48.6 to 41.6. In Iowa, Romney only leads by 45.5 to 43.7. And in Missouri, he leads 48.1 to 42.5.


For a nifty map, check out www.dailykos.com.

Karl Rove's Worst Nightmare

Karl Rove's Pac--"Crosshairs on America" leaked out a memo the other day that suggested President Obama was winning on framing the taxes issue. So naturally we get a lame barrage of ads against the Buffett rule and suggestions that Obama and Buffett can pay more taxes--voluntarily. This was the hardy-har joke introduced by Senate Republicans last year.


So PPP polled this question: Who do you trust more to keep taxes lower for you: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney, or do you trust neither candidate more?


Barack Obama: 41%
Mitt Romney:    33%
Neither:            24%
Unsure:              1%


Only when you get to people earning more than $100,000 does Romney eek out a 1% advantage 37 to 36.


So we learned from the Washington Post/ABC poll that the Republicans have lost their national security advantage--big time--against Obama and now they have lost their tax card.

Sometimes Satan Comes as a Man of Peace

++What's wrong with God? So far 0 for 4 in the GOP presidential sweepstakes. Cain, Bachmann, Perry and Forthy Mix are were called. Only the worshippers of Lucifer have made it.


++So far Romney hasn't found any people of Ham to serve in his campaign. No African-Americans have been approached.


++The Obama campaign showed some wit and zing by producing an ad with the best hits from Romney's extreme right swerves. Mitt Romney--"Memories to last a Lifetime".


++Mitt can't figure out today whether he is for equal pay for equal work. After a few zings, one from Lilly Ledbetter herself,the Romney spokeswoman said they would let the law stand.


++Allen West, Looney-Tune from Florida, says he has heard there are 70, 80 or maybe 81 Democratic members of congress who are members of the Communist Party. What do they all follow Angela Davis? What Communist Party is left anywhere?


++Worried about illegal immigration? Illegal immigration now from Mexico is ZERO. They must have realized America is as Third World as Mexico.


++Over 50% of Americans believe that the Supreme Court will decide the healthcare issue solely on politics.


++One in ten American males believe that their retirement will be paid by winning the lottery.


++If you aren't got that swing. New Mexico looks like it is no longer a Swing State. Rasmussen has Obama beating Romney there 52% to 36%.


++PPP has released its poll on North Carolina. President Obama beats Romney by 49 to 44. He has led or tied Romney on polls there since 2010. Romney has a 29-58 approval rating. In other words, he is in the dumpster. Obama leads independent voters in double digits and with woman by fifteen points. Men go for Romney by 6. One weird factoid is that only 79% of Democrats are for Obama and Romney gets 15% of Democrats. Basically, Obama is trending toward his November 2008 victory over McCain in the state. 


++This March was the warmest as long as the government kept records. Over 15,000 locations recorded record highs. When I was in Ohio, only two cities in the whole state did not reach their all-time records.

Where Do The Supporters of Ron Paul Go?

Nate Silver at his New York Times post notes that Ron Paul has done better this year than in 2008. Paul has garnered 10% of the vote in the Republican primaries and caucuses and nearly 1.2 million people have voted for him. Ron Paul today vowed to campaign on and said that he represented the "true conservative" in the race. He has cut ads for his home state of Texas. 


Silver points out that Paul's money was less this time around , some $34 million with another $4 million in a SuperPac dedicated to his cause, but that he made headway in terms of influencing the turn of public opinion on Afghanistan.


So where do his followers go? His campaign is really about ideas and building a movement than winning a nomination. But his followers feel badly burned by how the primaries and caucuses dealt them out of delegates. One only has to look at Maine or the primary in the U.S. Virgin Islands to see how the local parties made sure to marginalize them.


After the chaos in Missouri, followers of the Texas congressman started blogging their contempt for Mitt Romney and their refusal to support his campaign for the presidency. 


Ron Paul himself had a quiet truce with Romney, never attacking him in any ads ,only other candidates. His followers provided the only enthusiasm of the primary season as witnessed by the turnouts. And Paul actually had an energetic organization in marked contrast with almost all the other candidates. Paul was the only candidate who generated interest among the younger voters, a demographic the GOP seems committed to ignoring and suppressing its vote. 


Ron Paul is vexing to the Romney people because his potential to seriously hurt the GOP is real. Unlike the others, Paul or a libertarian candidate would siphon off enough votes to deprive Romney of victories in several states. But do you give him a prime time slot at the Convention or pretend to consider Rand Paul as your vice presidential nominee? 


It is unlikely any of the above will buy off Ron Paul supporters. While no one is talking about it now, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson will be the beneficiary. Johnson himself campaigned earlier for the Republican nomination but bowed out because of money woes and being excluded from debates. Currently, he is running for President as a libertarian. His is the type of profile that would attract younger Paul supporters--isolationist,socially liberal and fiscally conservative. 

Sweater Vest Santorum Surrenders at Gettysburg

On the verge of winning the Pennsylvania primary, Rick Santorum threw in the towel after holding a conference call with his advisors. Most observers speculate it really wasn't the delegate count that did him in but the health of his daughter.


The response from social conservatives was less than enthusiastic about Romney's inevitable nomination. Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council said that social conservatives will focus on taking the Senate and not supporting the Romney campaign. Richard Viguerie told the Romney campaign that unless Mitt accommodated the conservatives they would stay home in November. The Free Republic had a stroke when Santorum withdrew because Romney supporters are banned from the website and their founder Jim Robinson promised to close the website if Romney won the nomination.


Meanwhile Newt welcomed all Santorum supporters and said he was still in the race. He did suffer one slight problem today--his check for entering the Utah primary bounced. 


Meanwhile news of Santorum's withdrawal led into President Obama delivering a tour de force before an enthusiastic audience at Boca Raton, Florida. Obama is pumping the Buffett bill, which increases taxes of people earning more than $1 million a year.


Meanwhile Investors Business Daily says that --forget then gender gap with women, Romney has a man problem. President Obama beats Romney 46 to 38, with 10% undecided. Obama wins 48% of women to Romney's 35%. But with men, Romney loses to Obama by 44 to 42%. The conservative newspaper says there is always a gender gap with women because they favor Democrats but Romney's failure to win over men is the problem. President Obama wins 87% of Democrats, while Romney only 77% of Republicans.


PPP has finished their monthly poll of Colorado and finds that Obama has his mojo back. Obama has gained 11 its since December and his approval rating rests at 50%. He beats Romney 53 to 40. Among independents he wins by 57 to 31% and among women by 58 to 34%. PPP concludes that the Republican primary has diminished Romney's cross-over appeal. 


And finally to be fair, I saw Anderson Cooper explain on CNN how Romney has an easy road to 270. Nothing he said made any sense according to the polling numbers anyone has seen so far. He assumes Ohio is a lock for Republicans and Romney will win Michigan because he was born there. Expect to read and hear a lot of nonsense before the elections.