Predictably the jobs report only showed 84,000 jobs created this month, most coming in healthcare, manufacturing and professional services. This opened up the criticism on President Obama that he really can't talk about progress effectively and that he needs to go bold even if Congress turns him down.
The economic situation prompted Jonathan Rauch to present from a Democratic point of view how Obama must avoid a Jimmy Carter-style defeat. He pointed out that at this stage of the election cycle Carter was either even or slightly ahead of Ronald Reagan but that even President Carter wasn't aware of how the economy did him in and Ronald Reagan could win in the last months. Rauch urges the President to embrace Simpson-Bowles, propose a new stimulus package and assorted other things to bolster the President.
Mitt Romney took the opportunity to slam the President calling the jobs report a "punch to the gut". Romney asserted today he has released a 59 point economic program, which after he revealed it he hasn't spoken of it again, He asserted he would encourage more trade,wage trade war on China, approve the Keystone pipeline project and cut taxes on businesses. He asserted the President hasn't signed any trade agreements--only three so far and the large Asian Trade Pact is being negotiated--and he had no plans for the economy. However, President Obama did submit a 400-plus page piece of legislation to the Hill, which offered over 42 different ways to get the economy going.
Mitt Romney tried to score today but he admitted that it would take 8-10 years for some of his plan to take effect. In fact, what he proposed today would have effect for the longer term.
So what does the President do? He spent the day in Ohio and Pennsylvania on his bus tour and framed the economic news as another modest improvement making the number of jobs his administration has generated over 4.4 million. But he was most effective with a speech in Poland, Ohio, where he told the story of his own life and how it informed his vision of America. He was peppery and showed no signs of apology for his administration. He stressed that he brought manufacturing back to the United States for the first time since the 1990s. He talked about traveling around America on a Greyhound Bus with his mother and grandmother and staying at Howard Johnson's. And, later in Pittsburgh, he delivered much the same speech at Carnegie-Mellon to a crowd of about 8,000.
Flying home to D.C., he finished the day signing the Transportation Act and the bill, which saved the rates on the college student loans. In short, he framed a day, which put him back last month, in positive point of view and with a concrete act at the end to help the problem. Whether it helps is another matter but on the stump he showed his old stuff and by delving into his own story made his version of the American dream something the average voter can relate to.
Friday, July 6, 2012
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Romney's Problem
Steve Singiser, the pollster at the Daily Kos, mused today that Obama's 4-point Gallup poll lead and others comes at a time when he is in negative waters with his approval rate. He asks what happens when his approval rate rises.
You could see from David Axelrod's tweets today his glee on the Obama campaign finding Romney's weak spot. He called Romney the most secretive candidate since Richard Nixon. He recalled that Romney had all his hard drives erased when he left the governor's mansion in Massachusetts and the state did not have a record of his work when he left. Axelrod mentioned that Romney had not released the names of his bundlers for campaign cash and has not released his tax returns.
Richard Lowrey of the National Review asked today the question that has bugged me from the beginning--Why didn't Romney clean all this up when he ran the first time?
I saw one Democratic operative on MSNBC argued this just shows Romney is part of the 1% and they act like this. That is insufficient. She is part of the 1% and I doubt whether she acts like this.
The Romney campaign sensing these stories are hurting them responded by calling the charges "frivolous and fake." But what is fake? Do the numerous overseas bank accounts exist or not? It doesn't matter whether they are legal, Romney is running for the President of the United States and should be held accountable for them and forced to explain their existence and his rationale for keeping them so long. We know he closed the $3 million account in Switzerland because the man in charge of his trust thought it didn't look good politically. But what about the rest?
Questions have been raised about Romney having $100 million in a 401-K since he worked at Bain. Most Americans know about 401-Ks and how they work. But questions have been asked how --even given the maximum contribution of $30,000 a year could he end up with $100 million. They are fancy explanations but there are also suspect ones.
Whether they like it or not, the Romney campaign will have to deal with this issue because it affects the perception of character. Newt Gingrich openly questioned Romney's overseas funds by saying,"Who ever heard of a candidate for President of the United States with a Swiss bank account?" It was buried then but it is a question that has come back to haunt Romney.
For the Obama campaign as they look at the possibility of anemic job numbers tomorrow or at least within the next two months,raising this issue and forcing Romney to grapple with it allows them the opening they need to break the race wide open before the fall. If they can do this, it forces Romney on the defensive and his campaign war chest will not be able to save him. It is probable that the Obama campaign did not see these issues jelling in a way that it has impact and now they see it they are exploiting it to the max.
Nate Silver on Tipping Point States
++Let's check in with Times' Nate Silver of www.fivethirtyeight.com for his latest.
Silver has a set number of what he calls "tipping point" states, which can move a close election to one candidate or another. Here are President Obama's odds in each of these states:
Ohio--65%
Virginia--61%
Florida--53%
Pennsylvania--81%
Colorado--67%
Michigan--80%
Iowa--67%
Nevada--75%
New Hampshire--68%
Wisconsin--86%
In other words, Obama has heavy odds in all but Florida.
Here is today's forecast:
Obama 299.3 EV Romney 238.7%
Chance of winning:
Obama 68.3% Romney 31.7%
Popular Vote
Obama 50.8% and Romney 48.1%
(Note Nate is about 1% below Princeton's forecast.)
Nate warns that tomorrow's labor report could change things but then again he wants people to keep reading.
Silver has a set number of what he calls "tipping point" states, which can move a close election to one candidate or another. Here are President Obama's odds in each of these states:
Ohio--65%
Virginia--61%
Florida--53%
Pennsylvania--81%
Colorado--67%
Michigan--80%
Iowa--67%
Nevada--75%
New Hampshire--68%
Wisconsin--86%
In other words, Obama has heavy odds in all but Florida.
Here is today's forecast:
Obama 299.3 EV Romney 238.7%
Chance of winning:
Obama 68.3% Romney 31.7%
Popular Vote
Obama 50.8% and Romney 48.1%
(Note Nate is about 1% below Princeton's forecast.)
Nate warns that tomorrow's labor report could change things but then again he wants people to keep reading.
Afternoon at the Last Manatee
++Willard Romney had his best fund-raising month, bringing in $100 million.
++Asked how his lemonade tasted,"Lemon. Wet. Good."
++Pew found that 60% of Republicans find Romney boring.
++The Romney campaign of shadowing President Obama around with surrogates is looking a little rocky. In Parma, Ohio, outside of Cleveland, Tim Pawlenty was shouted down by labor organizers. With Bobby Jindal looking on, an elderly Romney supporter tried to push a water bottle into a protestor's mouth. That's the type of upbeat, message of hope that the Romney campaign is trying to sell.
++To keep any interest in the campaign, Ann Romney hinted that her husband was considering a woman as Vice-President. But reporters were quick to note past campaign comments that Romney would stick with white, boring male.
++Rick Santorum said that President Obama will bomb Iran to win the election. This was also suggested by Donald Trump. I thought these guys were the ones who wanted to.
++President Obama today demonstrated why he should go out on the stump more often. There were lines waiting for his appearances and he made the surprise visit to the local diner where he greeted everyone without an entourage. He comes off as someone comfortable with himself and others compared to most politicians.
++Asked how his lemonade tasted,"Lemon. Wet. Good."
++Pew found that 60% of Republicans find Romney boring.
++The Romney campaign of shadowing President Obama around with surrogates is looking a little rocky. In Parma, Ohio, outside of Cleveland, Tim Pawlenty was shouted down by labor organizers. With Bobby Jindal looking on, an elderly Romney supporter tried to push a water bottle into a protestor's mouth. That's the type of upbeat, message of hope that the Romney campaign is trying to sell.
++To keep any interest in the campaign, Ann Romney hinted that her husband was considering a woman as Vice-President. But reporters were quick to note past campaign comments that Romney would stick with white, boring male.
++Rick Santorum said that President Obama will bomb Iran to win the election. This was also suggested by Donald Trump. I thought these guys were the ones who wanted to.
++President Obama today demonstrated why he should go out on the stump more often. There were lines waiting for his appearances and he made the surprise visit to the local diner where he greeted everyone without an entourage. He comes off as someone comfortable with himself and others compared to most politicians.
On the Trail
Meanwhile in Maumee, Ohio, President Obama in a fighting mood said the Affordable Healthcare Act "the law will stay". He basically boiled the act down to expanding the availability of healthcare and making sure insurance companies treat everyone "fairly". No mention of mandates or the other stuff. Ex-Governor Ted Strickland opened up with a blast at Romney's overseas bank accounts and corporations, contrasting the President who bets on the American worker and Romney who moves his money abroad and doesn't invest in America.
President Obama will take today on the trail to announce the U.S. will take China to the World Trade Organization for its tariffs on American cars. The idea is to draw a contrast between his actions and Romney's history of off-shoring jobs to places like China despite his pledge to get tough.
David Axelrod has been tweeting up a storm over the AP stories and Vanity Fair piece on Romney's overseas accounts and his secret corporation in Bermuda. The Obama campaign has been sending out the stories to all campaign reporters.
The Romney off-shore accounts is a toxic issue and no one seems to realize how repugnant it is to the average American. I am surprised that before his second campaign for President that Romney didn't clean up his finances. Now he has opened himself up to a barrage of criticism and questioning and re-opens the whole issue of his refusal to release his tax returns.
Jack Welch of General Electric joined Rupert Murdoch in calling for the replacement of Romney's staff and Romney himself to put some meat on his policies.
The Wall Street Journal attacked Romney today for his lack of policy prescriptions. They also said that the point of Romney's loss will be his absolving President Obama of a middle class tax hike, when he agreed that the health mandate was a penalty, not a tax. But Romney has now said it is a tax but only in Massachusetts is it a mandate, which sent reporters howling.
Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard likened Romney to Michael Dukakis and John Kerry as another candidate from Massachusetts that can't beat a vulnerable incumbent. Kristol blamed Romney of playing it safe by just focusing on the economy, which will be a large factor in the campaign. He accused Romney of being on autopilot and not putting out any meat.
While the Romney people are waiting for an anemic jobs report to pounce again, Republicans are concerned that this will only solidified Romney's emphasis on the economy while Obama strips the bark off his character. As Ann Romney moaned, "Obama wants to kill Mitt."
A Pew poll shows that 67% of Americans believe the presidential campaigns will be annoying.
President Obama will take today on the trail to announce the U.S. will take China to the World Trade Organization for its tariffs on American cars. The idea is to draw a contrast between his actions and Romney's history of off-shoring jobs to places like China despite his pledge to get tough.
David Axelrod has been tweeting up a storm over the AP stories and Vanity Fair piece on Romney's overseas accounts and his secret corporation in Bermuda. The Obama campaign has been sending out the stories to all campaign reporters.
The Romney off-shore accounts is a toxic issue and no one seems to realize how repugnant it is to the average American. I am surprised that before his second campaign for President that Romney didn't clean up his finances. Now he has opened himself up to a barrage of criticism and questioning and re-opens the whole issue of his refusal to release his tax returns.
Jack Welch of General Electric joined Rupert Murdoch in calling for the replacement of Romney's staff and Romney himself to put some meat on his policies.
The Wall Street Journal attacked Romney today for his lack of policy prescriptions. They also said that the point of Romney's loss will be his absolving President Obama of a middle class tax hike, when he agreed that the health mandate was a penalty, not a tax. But Romney has now said it is a tax but only in Massachusetts is it a mandate, which sent reporters howling.
Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard likened Romney to Michael Dukakis and John Kerry as another candidate from Massachusetts that can't beat a vulnerable incumbent. Kristol blamed Romney of playing it safe by just focusing on the economy, which will be a large factor in the campaign. He accused Romney of being on autopilot and not putting out any meat.
While the Romney people are waiting for an anemic jobs report to pounce again, Republicans are concerned that this will only solidified Romney's emphasis on the economy while Obama strips the bark off his character. As Ann Romney moaned, "Obama wants to kill Mitt."
A Pew poll shows that 67% of Americans believe the presidential campaigns will be annoying.
What to Look Forward to
++President Obama follows my son's music tour to Ohio today and then on to Pennsylvania.
++Despite rumors that Obama was celebrating July 4th in Paris, he and the First Lady were at the White House swearing in new citizens and holding a picnic with armed service personnel.
++The Princeton Election Consortium started up their computers and project as of today Obama with 332 Electoral Votes and Romney at 206. The popular vote they project will be 51.5%. The Consortium was slightly under for Obama in 2008 but essentially right on the money. Amazingly, they project a 91% chance of Democrats taking back the House. On the Senate, they have it is too close to call on whether the Republicans take over.
++Tomorrow the official Labor statistics will come out. This morning's ADP numbers say 176,000 new private sector jobs have been created and the claims for unemployment dropped. But,watch out. Last month ADP had numbers that were much higher than the official results. Watch for the difference in government jobs, construction and manufacturing to account for what I expect will be anemic numbers.
++President Obama tomorrow will sign the Transportation Bill, perhaps in anticipation of the lower numbers. It gives him a platform to remind the American people that Republicans blocked his effort at the Jobs bill, which would have added 1.7 million jobs.
++The Associated Press Economy Survey questioned economists who said that unemployment will be above 6% until 2015 or 2016. A healthy economy is considered in the range of 5-6% unemployment. The economists project modest job growth through election day . They claim unemployment will be about 8% by the time of the election.
++Despite rumors that Obama was celebrating July 4th in Paris, he and the First Lady were at the White House swearing in new citizens and holding a picnic with armed service personnel.
++The Princeton Election Consortium started up their computers and project as of today Obama with 332 Electoral Votes and Romney at 206. The popular vote they project will be 51.5%. The Consortium was slightly under for Obama in 2008 but essentially right on the money. Amazingly, they project a 91% chance of Democrats taking back the House. On the Senate, they have it is too close to call on whether the Republicans take over.
++Tomorrow the official Labor statistics will come out. This morning's ADP numbers say 176,000 new private sector jobs have been created and the claims for unemployment dropped. But,watch out. Last month ADP had numbers that were much higher than the official results. Watch for the difference in government jobs, construction and manufacturing to account for what I expect will be anemic numbers.
++President Obama tomorrow will sign the Transportation Bill, perhaps in anticipation of the lower numbers. It gives him a platform to remind the American people that Republicans blocked his effort at the Jobs bill, which would have added 1.7 million jobs.
++The Associated Press Economy Survey questioned economists who said that unemployment will be above 6% until 2015 or 2016. A healthy economy is considered in the range of 5-6% unemployment. The economists project modest job growth through election day . They claim unemployment will be about 8% by the time of the election.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
And So It Goes
++Kaiser had a poll that 56% of Americans want politicians to stop trying to block the implementation of the healthcare bill and move on to more pressing national issues. 38% believe they should keep trying.
++The House is scheduled to vote on a bill which would prevent the IRS from enforcing the healthcare bill.
++House Speaker Boehner vows to pull the healthcare bill out by the root.
++Mitch McConnell told Chris Wallace of Fox News that having 30 million uninsured people was not really a big issue.
++Senator McConnell also said today that once any bill is implemented that it is very hard to reverse.
++The Romney campaign admitted that the penalties for not having health insurance was not a tax, putting it at odds with the RNC and the Congressional Republicans. Today,it called a truce on the whole issue.
++Democrats and the Obama campaign are making an awful mistake in my opinion by talking about the uninsured as "free loaders" in order to trump the Republicans. They are a consequence of our inefficient healthcare system.
++It is claimed that the Romney campaign has raised $100 million this quarter and plans to swamp Swing States with ads attacking Obama's character. They are already using old footage from the 2008 when Hillary Clinton attacked Obama.
++President Obama claims he will be outspent this election, making him the first sitting President ever to have less resources than his challenger.
++The Washington Post claims this is really not true, saying that the Obama campaign is actually ahead of the game with Mitt Romney.
++Bob Diamond, the former CEO of Barclays Bank, is pulling out of the London fundraiser for Mitt Romney. It seems Barclays' had a little scandal in the last two days.
++Rupert Murdoch seems liberated by Twitter. He slammed Romney's campaign staff saying it should be removed because it can not compete with a Chicago-style operation. He also said that Romney just spent his time hacking off Hispanics. He also thought the whole Romney show was mediocre and that the candidate was playing it safe. He said the election was really about Obama.
++Romney responded that he would not flip-flop on immigration--only confirming Murdoch's position.
++Romney has announced he is flying to Israel this summer to meet Bibi Netanyahu.
++The CNN poll mysteriously has Obama ahead 49-46 among registered voters and 50-45% among all respondents. Democrats have a higher enthusiasm than Republicans. There is still a 54-43 gender gap and a 55 to 40 moderate gap. But Romney has the lead in the Swing States, which is counterintuitive. But CNN claims Arizona, Missouri,and others are swing states when they are normally Republican.
++American Manufacturing has slowed for the first time in three years. But Chrysler's sales have picked up by 20% in the American market. The economy still is droopy and that will affect the election.
++For Baby Boomers, Andy Griffth died today at the age of 86
++The House is scheduled to vote on a bill which would prevent the IRS from enforcing the healthcare bill.
++House Speaker Boehner vows to pull the healthcare bill out by the root.
++Mitch McConnell told Chris Wallace of Fox News that having 30 million uninsured people was not really a big issue.
++Senator McConnell also said today that once any bill is implemented that it is very hard to reverse.
++The Romney campaign admitted that the penalties for not having health insurance was not a tax, putting it at odds with the RNC and the Congressional Republicans. Today,it called a truce on the whole issue.
++Democrats and the Obama campaign are making an awful mistake in my opinion by talking about the uninsured as "free loaders" in order to trump the Republicans. They are a consequence of our inefficient healthcare system.
++It is claimed that the Romney campaign has raised $100 million this quarter and plans to swamp Swing States with ads attacking Obama's character. They are already using old footage from the 2008 when Hillary Clinton attacked Obama.
++President Obama claims he will be outspent this election, making him the first sitting President ever to have less resources than his challenger.
++The Washington Post claims this is really not true, saying that the Obama campaign is actually ahead of the game with Mitt Romney.
++Bob Diamond, the former CEO of Barclays Bank, is pulling out of the London fundraiser for Mitt Romney. It seems Barclays' had a little scandal in the last two days.
++Rupert Murdoch seems liberated by Twitter. He slammed Romney's campaign staff saying it should be removed because it can not compete with a Chicago-style operation. He also said that Romney just spent his time hacking off Hispanics. He also thought the whole Romney show was mediocre and that the candidate was playing it safe. He said the election was really about Obama.
++Romney responded that he would not flip-flop on immigration--only confirming Murdoch's position.
++Romney has announced he is flying to Israel this summer to meet Bibi Netanyahu.
++The CNN poll mysteriously has Obama ahead 49-46 among registered voters and 50-45% among all respondents. Democrats have a higher enthusiasm than Republicans. There is still a 54-43 gender gap and a 55 to 40 moderate gap. But Romney has the lead in the Swing States, which is counterintuitive. But CNN claims Arizona, Missouri,and others are swing states when they are normally Republican.
++American Manufacturing has slowed for the first time in three years. But Chrysler's sales have picked up by 20% in the American market. The economy still is droopy and that will affect the election.
++For Baby Boomers, Andy Griffth died today at the age of 86
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