++Since Washington is all about declaring winners and losers without regard to implication for the issue, President Obama is placing a high stakes gamble he will win the Congressional vote. As lopsided as the House whip news is in the AP,he still stands a chance to win the Senate, even with Rand Paul's filibuster.
++Already people are writing him off as a lame-duck President for his second term if he loses. As I have written before,he only has to have one last accomplishment--the immigration reform bill--to make his second term a success. If he wins the vote,it will come against the popular disapproval against the war in Syria. For Republicans,they believe they will have made President Obama ineffectual either way. If he does take military action with congressional approval, they will criticize him unmercifully like in Libya and disappear behind the curtains if he succeeds. If he moves without congressional approval--even with no boots on the ground, the House will start impeachment proceedings against him. Just for a little history, Ronald Reagan was so worried about the possibility of impeachment after Grenada, he called a Supreme Court judge to test the waters. He was told it was so short an operation, he needn't worry. But with the Republican intense hatred of Obama, they would not hesitate.
++In any case, the intense narcissism of America has to be appreciated. Congress can reject the President without any consideration there is a wider world out there or that there are no consequences for doing nothing. If this happens, President Obama should not do a 2010 where he reacted in a lackluster manner. He should immediately announce what he intends to do without overt military actions and summon the international community to handle the humanitarian crisis and put a dollar amount to his proposal and demand another vote. Congress would be very hard-pressed to turn him down and he would smoke out the Republican isolationists on this one.
++There are different ways to consider credibility and to enhance it even if you are deprived what you want.He would be doing a lot of good if forces around the world realized they should not be dependent on the United States' military might. "Soft power" can be muscular and send the appropriate message that Assad's antics aren't tolerable.
Saturday, September 7, 2013
Where are we going?
++A follow-up note, the new album by Ian McColm and David Shapiro is "Nagual", its production was funded by Kickstarter and for trivia buffs it was recorded using Sly Stone's former sound board. Ian McColm's previous album is "Virgin Skins",a solo album of experimental percussion composed by him. Nagual made its debut in Chicago yesterday.
++The Syria issue continued throughout the day with more killing outside of Damascus by Assad's forces. The EU issued a statement that blamed Assad for the use of chemical weapons but asked that a serious strike be reserved until the conclusions of the UN inspectors. President Obama will appear on all major networks on Monday to press his case for a military strike. He will address the nation on Tuesday.
++The White House is in flood the field mode for their efforts to persuade a reluctant Congress to approve military activity. AIPAC is swarming the hill with 250 lobbyists,something that is unusual for the pro-Israeli lobby.
++Right now the numbers of House members tilting to a no vote is approaching a majority. However, Democratic supporters of the White House spin this more positively that those "leaning no" have not yet read the classified papers. This sounds like whistling in the wind.
++For those who are arguing against intervention,is it to absolve oneself of guilt,a true belief in non-violence, a fatigue of America at war. Not intervening will not stop the carnage in Syria or end the war. The United States,Jordan and Israel already have special forces in that country who are operating clandestinely. Is it just better for our conscience that we don't know about this? The Left is sounding triumphalist with the impending "no" vote. The anti-war movement, which failed abysmally during the Iraq War, now gets its revenge on the President who ended the Iraq War and is close to ending the Afghanistan War. But there is an unquiet lurking in the most frank and objective anti-war opinions. There is an agreement that something truly awful is happening in Syria and something should be done. On the Right,one wag said that Obama has achieved the impossible--making Republicans hate Golf and War. The non-interventionist Right are lurching to Rand Paul isolationism and claim America can not really affect what happens in Syria.
++I think there are several problems at work in all this. First,America can not escape its gigantism. Even with calls for surgical strikes,we ask for solutions and actions beyond the scale of imagination. Our concept of War is still too laden with equipment and manpower. These elements of our war-making establishment mitigate against success. But it is the way our military-intelligence-terrorist complex is made to work.
++What if we looked at this situation a different way. It is supposed to be a "humanitarian intervention" aimed at the proliferation of chemical weapons. I listened to John Kerry's interview with Chris Hayes and combined by lengthy statements from Samantha Powers and President Obama,I've concluded their strategy might, indeed, work, bringing the parties to Geneva talks eventually. But the problem,I felt, was that there were too many moving parts to the policy and ,as such, would not be understood either by the American people or the Congress. And, there would not be the stick-to-itness you need to fulfill the strategy.
++Yes,short military strikes will significantly degrade Assad's war-making powers. Somehow people on both the Right and Left believe these strikes would be pinpricks when in fact they would take out whole chunks of the governing infrastructure. And it really doesn't matter too much that Assad is busy moving things around to avoid attack. The plan was to seek out the delivery systems for the chemical weapons and destroy those with the troops that handle them. The cost of the whole affair will be above the estimates of Chuck Hagel and President Obama, between $600 million to $1 billion. This operation will cost less than Libya and will be supported by funds from Saudi Arabia and military power from France, Turkey and Israel but the estimates are still too low.
++But "humanitarian intervention", which I have been known to support, has to emphasize the humanitarian nature of the crisis. Whatever we do the fighting will continue. We now have a massive humanitarian crisis of nearly 5 million displaced Syrians,about 2 million as refugees. The world community has made a commitment of about 1.5 billion for the refugee problem, only about $175 million has been paid by donor states. It seems to me the United States and its foreign allies, which still exist, should immediately pony up the money to the organizations tasked with dealing with the refugee crisis. Money also needs to go to host communities in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan to alleviate the stress on their meager resources.
++The refugee crisis is swamping the surrounding countries and fueling the seeds for destabilizing Lebanon and Jordan. Nearly 25% of the population in Lebanon are Syrians. The Obama Administration has done no one any favors by focusing on the chemical attacks without painting the broader canvas of the humanitarian crisis.
++There are scores of NGOs trying to deal with this problem. The International Rescue Committee is one, the UNHCR is another. They are desperate for funds and supplies. The problem will only get worse, not better. The international community needs to step up to the plate and the United States must lead this effort.
++Believe it or not, there are non-violent Syrians, who still are around advocating non-violent change. Their impact is basically felt on social media. They need to be strengthened by outside NGOs and others committed to non-violent change.
++While this may be controversial for the United States, I would advocate an airlift of supplies ,food and medicine to the internally displaced. This would have to be conducted by "neutral" third parties. But this is a hidden crisis that will leech out into the media sooner, rather than later. It should be noted that Russia and China are not providing any humanitarian assistance. Perhaps, they should be pressured to do so.
++Arms are, unfortunately, the coin of the realm. Non-interventionists argue that the armed opposition is dominated by jihadists. About 15-20% of them are.Like the Libyan Revolution,the opposition is a many splintered thing. Whoever gets the arms,gets the allegiance and wins the fight over morale. The United States is already committed to arming the opposition groups, who already receive arms and funs from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The real question is whether such armed assistance can change the balance of forces.
++Personally,I would flood the zone on humanitarian assistance and make it a priority for the United Nations and other countries who are antagonistic to Assad. With this type of assistance comes the media coverage that would isolate the regime and undermine its legitimacy.
++If the Congress turns down the request for military strikes,there is nothing holding the Administration back from conducting cyberwar against Syria. As the NSA revelations indicated, we already are engaged in these wars with other countries as they are with us. I can well imagine that a sophisticated cyberwar strategy could cripple the Assad regime's military infrastructure.
++One added note about the much-mentioned Rwanda failure. The Clinton Administration failed to stop the massacres in Rwanda because they refused to cut off the telecommunications within the country, which would have slowed and maybe stopped the worse of the killings.
++Critics of the administration say that the United States should use the Security Council. Samantha Powers' presentation at the Center for America's Future gave an excellent account of how many times the United States has gone to the Security Council on Syria and been blocked by Russia. But that doesn't mean the United States and its allies can not use other parts of the United Nations.
++Those who want Assad brought to the ICC should remember the terrible episode of why the Bush Administration refused to become a member, even with guarantees our military would not be prosecuted. We are witnessing today how our neglect of institutions we often helped create are putting us in danger. President Obama repeatedly emphasized the Convention against Chemical Weapons that almost all nations have ratified as part of his argument. But we never ratified that Convention. It is true as critics maintain that part of the whole Syrian exercise is aimed at Iran and the possibility it will violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Pact by making nuclear weapons. But there again we allow India to break it.
++Secretary of State John Kerry and the President have convinced the international community of the seriousness of the Syria crisis. The entire EU has weighed in on this as well as the Arab League. It is a matter of persuading nations to engage in all the other efforts to mitigate the humanitarian crisis. I am convinced that can be done even if countries are reluctant to support American military action. If the Congress disapproves of military strikes,there are clearly different ways to skin a cat, if the administration doesn't mope after losing a vote.
++Non-interventionists may will Syria away but it will not disappear as a concern for the United States and the rest of the world. Nor will President Obama just shrug his shoulders and let the matter drop. If activists don't watch out, things will deteriorate in Syria more rapidly then now and the President will have a second bite at the apple.
++It seems to me that what is missing is a robust counter policy that directly addresses the humanitarian crisis and the Assad regime's intransigence to change.
++The Syria issue continued throughout the day with more killing outside of Damascus by Assad's forces. The EU issued a statement that blamed Assad for the use of chemical weapons but asked that a serious strike be reserved until the conclusions of the UN inspectors. President Obama will appear on all major networks on Monday to press his case for a military strike. He will address the nation on Tuesday.
++The White House is in flood the field mode for their efforts to persuade a reluctant Congress to approve military activity. AIPAC is swarming the hill with 250 lobbyists,something that is unusual for the pro-Israeli lobby.
++Right now the numbers of House members tilting to a no vote is approaching a majority. However, Democratic supporters of the White House spin this more positively that those "leaning no" have not yet read the classified papers. This sounds like whistling in the wind.
++For those who are arguing against intervention,is it to absolve oneself of guilt,a true belief in non-violence, a fatigue of America at war. Not intervening will not stop the carnage in Syria or end the war. The United States,Jordan and Israel already have special forces in that country who are operating clandestinely. Is it just better for our conscience that we don't know about this? The Left is sounding triumphalist with the impending "no" vote. The anti-war movement, which failed abysmally during the Iraq War, now gets its revenge on the President who ended the Iraq War and is close to ending the Afghanistan War. But there is an unquiet lurking in the most frank and objective anti-war opinions. There is an agreement that something truly awful is happening in Syria and something should be done. On the Right,one wag said that Obama has achieved the impossible--making Republicans hate Golf and War. The non-interventionist Right are lurching to Rand Paul isolationism and claim America can not really affect what happens in Syria.
++I think there are several problems at work in all this. First,America can not escape its gigantism. Even with calls for surgical strikes,we ask for solutions and actions beyond the scale of imagination. Our concept of War is still too laden with equipment and manpower. These elements of our war-making establishment mitigate against success. But it is the way our military-intelligence-terrorist complex is made to work.
++What if we looked at this situation a different way. It is supposed to be a "humanitarian intervention" aimed at the proliferation of chemical weapons. I listened to John Kerry's interview with Chris Hayes and combined by lengthy statements from Samantha Powers and President Obama,I've concluded their strategy might, indeed, work, bringing the parties to Geneva talks eventually. But the problem,I felt, was that there were too many moving parts to the policy and ,as such, would not be understood either by the American people or the Congress. And, there would not be the stick-to-itness you need to fulfill the strategy.
++Yes,short military strikes will significantly degrade Assad's war-making powers. Somehow people on both the Right and Left believe these strikes would be pinpricks when in fact they would take out whole chunks of the governing infrastructure. And it really doesn't matter too much that Assad is busy moving things around to avoid attack. The plan was to seek out the delivery systems for the chemical weapons and destroy those with the troops that handle them. The cost of the whole affair will be above the estimates of Chuck Hagel and President Obama, between $600 million to $1 billion. This operation will cost less than Libya and will be supported by funds from Saudi Arabia and military power from France, Turkey and Israel but the estimates are still too low.
++But "humanitarian intervention", which I have been known to support, has to emphasize the humanitarian nature of the crisis. Whatever we do the fighting will continue. We now have a massive humanitarian crisis of nearly 5 million displaced Syrians,about 2 million as refugees. The world community has made a commitment of about 1.5 billion for the refugee problem, only about $175 million has been paid by donor states. It seems to me the United States and its foreign allies, which still exist, should immediately pony up the money to the organizations tasked with dealing with the refugee crisis. Money also needs to go to host communities in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan to alleviate the stress on their meager resources.
++The refugee crisis is swamping the surrounding countries and fueling the seeds for destabilizing Lebanon and Jordan. Nearly 25% of the population in Lebanon are Syrians. The Obama Administration has done no one any favors by focusing on the chemical attacks without painting the broader canvas of the humanitarian crisis.
++There are scores of NGOs trying to deal with this problem. The International Rescue Committee is one, the UNHCR is another. They are desperate for funds and supplies. The problem will only get worse, not better. The international community needs to step up to the plate and the United States must lead this effort.
++Believe it or not, there are non-violent Syrians, who still are around advocating non-violent change. Their impact is basically felt on social media. They need to be strengthened by outside NGOs and others committed to non-violent change.
++While this may be controversial for the United States, I would advocate an airlift of supplies ,food and medicine to the internally displaced. This would have to be conducted by "neutral" third parties. But this is a hidden crisis that will leech out into the media sooner, rather than later. It should be noted that Russia and China are not providing any humanitarian assistance. Perhaps, they should be pressured to do so.
++Arms are, unfortunately, the coin of the realm. Non-interventionists argue that the armed opposition is dominated by jihadists. About 15-20% of them are.Like the Libyan Revolution,the opposition is a many splintered thing. Whoever gets the arms,gets the allegiance and wins the fight over morale. The United States is already committed to arming the opposition groups, who already receive arms and funs from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The real question is whether such armed assistance can change the balance of forces.
++Personally,I would flood the zone on humanitarian assistance and make it a priority for the United Nations and other countries who are antagonistic to Assad. With this type of assistance comes the media coverage that would isolate the regime and undermine its legitimacy.
++If the Congress turns down the request for military strikes,there is nothing holding the Administration back from conducting cyberwar against Syria. As the NSA revelations indicated, we already are engaged in these wars with other countries as they are with us. I can well imagine that a sophisticated cyberwar strategy could cripple the Assad regime's military infrastructure.
++One added note about the much-mentioned Rwanda failure. The Clinton Administration failed to stop the massacres in Rwanda because they refused to cut off the telecommunications within the country, which would have slowed and maybe stopped the worse of the killings.
++Critics of the administration say that the United States should use the Security Council. Samantha Powers' presentation at the Center for America's Future gave an excellent account of how many times the United States has gone to the Security Council on Syria and been blocked by Russia. But that doesn't mean the United States and its allies can not use other parts of the United Nations.
++Those who want Assad brought to the ICC should remember the terrible episode of why the Bush Administration refused to become a member, even with guarantees our military would not be prosecuted. We are witnessing today how our neglect of institutions we often helped create are putting us in danger. President Obama repeatedly emphasized the Convention against Chemical Weapons that almost all nations have ratified as part of his argument. But we never ratified that Convention. It is true as critics maintain that part of the whole Syrian exercise is aimed at Iran and the possibility it will violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Pact by making nuclear weapons. But there again we allow India to break it.
++Secretary of State John Kerry and the President have convinced the international community of the seriousness of the Syria crisis. The entire EU has weighed in on this as well as the Arab League. It is a matter of persuading nations to engage in all the other efforts to mitigate the humanitarian crisis. I am convinced that can be done even if countries are reluctant to support American military action. If the Congress disapproves of military strikes,there are clearly different ways to skin a cat, if the administration doesn't mope after losing a vote.
++Non-interventionists may will Syria away but it will not disappear as a concern for the United States and the rest of the world. Nor will President Obama just shrug his shoulders and let the matter drop. If activists don't watch out, things will deteriorate in Syria more rapidly then now and the President will have a second bite at the apple.
++It seems to me that what is missing is a robust counter policy that directly addresses the humanitarian crisis and the Assad regime's intransigence to change.
Syrian Delirium
++First,congratulations to my son, Ian and David Shapiro for the release of their album, which was streamed on the hip Chicago radio station.
++Anyone who has sampled this blog over the years knows I love Johnny Lang. Now he's in his thirties and will have a new album out this month.
++Bob Dylan's Self Portrait Bootleg album is out and since I have subsidized his career since my high school years I bought it. I thought it was terrible then but as I've grown senile I liked the two-CD set.
++This week saw the eruption of the so-called debate on the limited airstrikes against Syria's military. Those opposed resemble a bizarre carnival of unlikely bedfellows. The Koch Brothers,the Tea Party Patriots,Andrew Sullivan, Madonna, Ray McGovern, formerly of the CIA,the remnants of the American Left,Senator Bernie Sanders and Rep. Grayson have weighed in against. Lindsey Graham, John McCain, Tan Man Boehner, Nancy Pelosi have weighed in for. The Republican Jewish Committee, Romney-backer Shelson Adelson, Bill Kristol,the National Review,Michael Gerson,Bob Kagan and have weighed in for. What is clear is that a strong current of isolationism has taken hold of American politics. Tim Egan has a column in the New York Times about how Bush's legacy clouds the current discussion.
++Andrew Sullivan, formerly a cheerleader of the Iraq venture who repented,wants President Obama to escape the clutches of the humanitarian interventionism of the likes of Samantha Powers and return to his more "realism" tendencies. The problem with this is that in the age of social media and globalism,a strictly realist foreign policy is impossible to sustain in a democracy.
++Rep. Greyson is whipping the anti-war Democrats in the house. Tan Man Boehner is not going to whip Republicans. As of today, the "no's" would win. But we may be heading to the strange situation of the Senate approving and the House disapproving. I have no idea what that would mean.
++President Obama will address the nation on the eve of September 11,what I term now the "high holy day of conservatives" which includes Benghazi. The American public opinion is hugely against military intervention as they were for Kossovo. Obama
is keenly aware of this. At the G-20, Obama referred to the unpopularity of intervening in Rwanda, which is a tip off to the influence humanitarian interventionists have on him.
++While AIPAC sat on the sidelines for the Iraq War,they have revved up their lobbying machine for intervention.
++While grudgingly supporting the Syrian intervention, the National Review criticized President Obama for not unilaterally striking, citing Alexander Hamilton, a code word for the unitary theory of the executive,advocated by the Right and created by Dick Cheney under the Nixon Administration.
++Whatever one's qualms about President Obama's stance, give him credit for his turn to Congress. If he had not gone to the Hill, the House would impeach him sure as rain. In fact, they may impeach him anyway since that was the Right's agenda since 2008. What President Obama will do in a split decision is anyone's guess. The White House initially said it would not strike if Congress disapproved.
++With all the wailing about Obama as a weak leader by the GOP and the Left raising the specter of Iraq, could we at least judge the issue on Obama's own interventions and not W's. The equation of Obama with W doesn't help the argument. I thought we were told Chuck Hagel was for Hezbollah and John Brennan was a recent convert to Islam.
++Since there is a large number of bloggers who are saying Obama fabricated the evidence of the use of chemical weapons by Assad,we are asked to dismiss the findings of France, England, Germany,Israel and the Arab League as well as the statements by the former Iranian President Rastanjani. Be my guest.
++The big laugh riot has been the re-emergence of Donald Rumsfeld to not only criticize Obama as commander-in-chief but to suggest we shouldn't strike Syria because it did not pose an "imminent threat" to the United States--say, like Saddam Hussein's Iraq. There you had a country without any involvement with 9-11,no chemical weapons, no Al Qaeda,and no nukes. But we upended America's history of doctrine to wage a war of choice. Since we had a world sympathetic to us after 9-11,conning the international community was relatively easy.
++The week has seen an extraordinary flood into the U.S. of Russian disinformation. The primary audience from my e-mail traffic has been the Right. After all Putin is for whites, against blacks,now a capitalist,anti-gay, pro-gun. I think the Teaparty should change its name to the Samivar Party Patriots. Since the Koch Brothers' original fortune was made in Stalin's Russia,it's natural they should return to the post-Communist Russia.
++Most bizarre this week has been the articles appearing about Eric Snowden and the suggestions that instead of being a whistleblower, he may have more relations with Russia than previously thought. He fled Hawaii to take refuge in the Russian consulate in Hong Kong and then on to Moscow. All this on the pretext that he could not live in a country where privacy wasn't protected. Even Vladimir Putin has said Russia had contact before Snowden landed and lamented he will have a hard life in Russia.
++Below the radar of America going batshit crazy over Syria was the news that the House GOP will vote next week on a continuing resolution to fund the government until December. Eric Cantor says they will raise the debt ceiling before time on several conditions like defunding Obamacare, which, of course, would raise the debt.
++The pro-Assad Teaparty is revving up their Obamacare campaign by asking young people to burn their Obamacare cards, which don't exist but who's complaining. The anti-Obamacare e-mails I get equal those against the Syrian intervention. The House has flooded Obamacare Navigators with vast questionnaires asking information impossible to obtain. The target for their campaign is to obstruct Obamacare in those states with the most uninsured, which naturally are governed by Republicans.
++The anti-Obamcare campaign has had the unintended benefit of educating the public about the program. Sneaky Sibelius has also gotten anti-Obamacare states like Oklahoma and Indiana to sign on to modest Medicaid expansions so that they will be in shape for the eventual extension of the program. Kaiser Health has completed their study of 16 states, which show insurance premiums in Obamacare states will drop more than the CBO expected. But, in Texas and Florida rates will soar.
++The summer didn't produce the uproar against immigration reform and Republican "so-called" leaders still back it. But the House GOP has nothing cooking--not even their piecemeal approach. Now they are complaining that with Syria they can't get around to it. So people are claiming once again it is dead--sort of.
++Tan Man Boehner has announced he will retire in 2014, which is probably a reason that the House will have 239 days vacation this year. He needs some time off.
++While people were obsessed by Syria, the G-20 did agree to new policies of taxing multinational corporations and reducing CO2 emissions. Canada's Harper has promised President Obama more agreement on climate change if he approves the Keystone pipeline.
++The U.S. and China reached on carbon emissions and pollution which will be formalized next month.
++We have a spate of articles here in Washington about the fate of Obama's credibility should he lose the vote on Syria. I go back to my original statement that the only domestic thing Obama will achieve in the second term is immigration reform. None of his plans for the infrastructure or job creation will pass the Congress even if he conquered Syria. What you saw was accomplished the first two years of the first term before the Samivar Party came into Congress.
++I was disappointed with Paul Krugman this week. Krugman wrote that the recovery has been disappointing because the stimulus was big enough. As it was, in inflated dollars it was more than the New Deal and any more was virtually impossible to pass.
++The jobs report showed anemic job growth and unemployment going down to 7.3%. Naturally, Republican columnists said Obama couldn't blame anyone anymore for the dismal economic record. The good news is that Tan Man Boehner is going to have more votes this coming week to repeal the "job-killing" Obamacare.
++Last advice to President Obama today:
**Raise the debt ceiling by executive order
**Don't appoint Larry Summers to the FED
++Anyone who has sampled this blog over the years knows I love Johnny Lang. Now he's in his thirties and will have a new album out this month.
++Bob Dylan's Self Portrait Bootleg album is out and since I have subsidized his career since my high school years I bought it. I thought it was terrible then but as I've grown senile I liked the two-CD set.
++This week saw the eruption of the so-called debate on the limited airstrikes against Syria's military. Those opposed resemble a bizarre carnival of unlikely bedfellows. The Koch Brothers,the Tea Party Patriots,Andrew Sullivan, Madonna, Ray McGovern, formerly of the CIA,the remnants of the American Left,Senator Bernie Sanders and Rep. Grayson have weighed in against. Lindsey Graham, John McCain, Tan Man Boehner, Nancy Pelosi have weighed in for. The Republican Jewish Committee, Romney-backer Shelson Adelson, Bill Kristol,the National Review,Michael Gerson,Bob Kagan and have weighed in for. What is clear is that a strong current of isolationism has taken hold of American politics. Tim Egan has a column in the New York Times about how Bush's legacy clouds the current discussion.
++Andrew Sullivan, formerly a cheerleader of the Iraq venture who repented,wants President Obama to escape the clutches of the humanitarian interventionism of the likes of Samantha Powers and return to his more "realism" tendencies. The problem with this is that in the age of social media and globalism,a strictly realist foreign policy is impossible to sustain in a democracy.
++Rep. Greyson is whipping the anti-war Democrats in the house. Tan Man Boehner is not going to whip Republicans. As of today, the "no's" would win. But we may be heading to the strange situation of the Senate approving and the House disapproving. I have no idea what that would mean.
++President Obama will address the nation on the eve of September 11,what I term now the "high holy day of conservatives" which includes Benghazi. The American public opinion is hugely against military intervention as they were for Kossovo. Obama
is keenly aware of this. At the G-20, Obama referred to the unpopularity of intervening in Rwanda, which is a tip off to the influence humanitarian interventionists have on him.
++While AIPAC sat on the sidelines for the Iraq War,they have revved up their lobbying machine for intervention.
++While grudgingly supporting the Syrian intervention, the National Review criticized President Obama for not unilaterally striking, citing Alexander Hamilton, a code word for the unitary theory of the executive,advocated by the Right and created by Dick Cheney under the Nixon Administration.
++Whatever one's qualms about President Obama's stance, give him credit for his turn to Congress. If he had not gone to the Hill, the House would impeach him sure as rain. In fact, they may impeach him anyway since that was the Right's agenda since 2008. What President Obama will do in a split decision is anyone's guess. The White House initially said it would not strike if Congress disapproved.
++With all the wailing about Obama as a weak leader by the GOP and the Left raising the specter of Iraq, could we at least judge the issue on Obama's own interventions and not W's. The equation of Obama with W doesn't help the argument. I thought we were told Chuck Hagel was for Hezbollah and John Brennan was a recent convert to Islam.
++Since there is a large number of bloggers who are saying Obama fabricated the evidence of the use of chemical weapons by Assad,we are asked to dismiss the findings of France, England, Germany,Israel and the Arab League as well as the statements by the former Iranian President Rastanjani. Be my guest.
++The big laugh riot has been the re-emergence of Donald Rumsfeld to not only criticize Obama as commander-in-chief but to suggest we shouldn't strike Syria because it did not pose an "imminent threat" to the United States--say, like Saddam Hussein's Iraq. There you had a country without any involvement with 9-11,no chemical weapons, no Al Qaeda,and no nukes. But we upended America's history of doctrine to wage a war of choice. Since we had a world sympathetic to us after 9-11,conning the international community was relatively easy.
++The week has seen an extraordinary flood into the U.S. of Russian disinformation. The primary audience from my e-mail traffic has been the Right. After all Putin is for whites, against blacks,now a capitalist,anti-gay, pro-gun. I think the Teaparty should change its name to the Samivar Party Patriots. Since the Koch Brothers' original fortune was made in Stalin's Russia,it's natural they should return to the post-Communist Russia.
++Most bizarre this week has been the articles appearing about Eric Snowden and the suggestions that instead of being a whistleblower, he may have more relations with Russia than previously thought. He fled Hawaii to take refuge in the Russian consulate in Hong Kong and then on to Moscow. All this on the pretext that he could not live in a country where privacy wasn't protected. Even Vladimir Putin has said Russia had contact before Snowden landed and lamented he will have a hard life in Russia.
++Below the radar of America going batshit crazy over Syria was the news that the House GOP will vote next week on a continuing resolution to fund the government until December. Eric Cantor says they will raise the debt ceiling before time on several conditions like defunding Obamacare, which, of course, would raise the debt.
++The pro-Assad Teaparty is revving up their Obamacare campaign by asking young people to burn their Obamacare cards, which don't exist but who's complaining. The anti-Obamacare e-mails I get equal those against the Syrian intervention. The House has flooded Obamacare Navigators with vast questionnaires asking information impossible to obtain. The target for their campaign is to obstruct Obamacare in those states with the most uninsured, which naturally are governed by Republicans.
++The anti-Obamcare campaign has had the unintended benefit of educating the public about the program. Sneaky Sibelius has also gotten anti-Obamacare states like Oklahoma and Indiana to sign on to modest Medicaid expansions so that they will be in shape for the eventual extension of the program. Kaiser Health has completed their study of 16 states, which show insurance premiums in Obamacare states will drop more than the CBO expected. But, in Texas and Florida rates will soar.
++The summer didn't produce the uproar against immigration reform and Republican "so-called" leaders still back it. But the House GOP has nothing cooking--not even their piecemeal approach. Now they are complaining that with Syria they can't get around to it. So people are claiming once again it is dead--sort of.
++Tan Man Boehner has announced he will retire in 2014, which is probably a reason that the House will have 239 days vacation this year. He needs some time off.
++While people were obsessed by Syria, the G-20 did agree to new policies of taxing multinational corporations and reducing CO2 emissions. Canada's Harper has promised President Obama more agreement on climate change if he approves the Keystone pipeline.
++The U.S. and China reached on carbon emissions and pollution which will be formalized next month.
++We have a spate of articles here in Washington about the fate of Obama's credibility should he lose the vote on Syria. I go back to my original statement that the only domestic thing Obama will achieve in the second term is immigration reform. None of his plans for the infrastructure or job creation will pass the Congress even if he conquered Syria. What you saw was accomplished the first two years of the first term before the Samivar Party came into Congress.
++I was disappointed with Paul Krugman this week. Krugman wrote that the recovery has been disappointing because the stimulus was big enough. As it was, in inflated dollars it was more than the New Deal and any more was virtually impossible to pass.
++The jobs report showed anemic job growth and unemployment going down to 7.3%. Naturally, Republican columnists said Obama couldn't blame anyone anymore for the dismal economic record. The good news is that Tan Man Boehner is going to have more votes this coming week to repeal the "job-killing" Obamacare.
++Last advice to President Obama today:
**Raise the debt ceiling by executive order
**Don't appoint Larry Summers to the FED
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Do You Really Want Congress Back in Session
++The House Republicans have 239 vacation days this year. Maybe that's too few.
++The House has 8 days left to pass a resolution on the Syrian situation, a budget, raise the debt ceiling,the farm bill, which they blew,immigration reform which they are punting on. Their August town halls didn't generate the fervor of the past or the condemnation of the immigration bill they expected.
++The Syria debate has generated the internal mayhem in the GOP one can expect. Obama ,the dictator,is making Congress vote so he is a wimp. John McCain on Monday said that a vote against the use of military force would be catastrophic. Today, he is against it because it does not go far enough. Marco Rubio says that we wouldn't be in this position if he were in charge. Rand Paul wants to filibuster the act--possibly the only time this has been done against the executive's request for approval of military actions.
++John Boehner backed President Obama but has been mute about whipping the House vote. Democrat House member Grayson vows to whip the House against.
++Evidence about Syrian use of chemical weapons has appeared in reports by the German intelligence, BND, the French and the British. Hezbollah admits the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons and former Iranian President Rastajani said Syria did too.
++In the let few days, we have been whipsawed by disinformation from all sides,the Russians and the Iranians and Syrians. So take your pick. From the Left, we get the refrain that John Kerry is Colin Powell, that Barack Obama is the same as W. Interesting how the Libyan intervention just met with howling from Republicans about Obama leading from behind.
++Perhaps, it is best that the nuttiness of the past few years comes condensed to the Syrian issue.
++Meanwhile, if you want to agitate for something, agitate for humanitarian assistance to the over 4 million Syrians displaced.
++My e-mails have been lighting up with the usual Obama hate and cries about Benghazi. On Libya, let's be clear--for a few billion dollars, the US secured its chemical stockpiles left behind when W made a deal with Qaddafhi on his nuclear program,a dictator was toppled and the British, to be retained the oil. Four casualties makes it less than President Reagan's invasion of Grenada.
++Expect weeks of insanity with everyone expressing an opinion about something they don't know anything about.
++The House has 8 days left to pass a resolution on the Syrian situation, a budget, raise the debt ceiling,the farm bill, which they blew,immigration reform which they are punting on. Their August town halls didn't generate the fervor of the past or the condemnation of the immigration bill they expected.
++The Syria debate has generated the internal mayhem in the GOP one can expect. Obama ,the dictator,is making Congress vote so he is a wimp. John McCain on Monday said that a vote against the use of military force would be catastrophic. Today, he is against it because it does not go far enough. Marco Rubio says that we wouldn't be in this position if he were in charge. Rand Paul wants to filibuster the act--possibly the only time this has been done against the executive's request for approval of military actions.
++John Boehner backed President Obama but has been mute about whipping the House vote. Democrat House member Grayson vows to whip the House against.
++Evidence about Syrian use of chemical weapons has appeared in reports by the German intelligence, BND, the French and the British. Hezbollah admits the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons and former Iranian President Rastajani said Syria did too.
++In the let few days, we have been whipsawed by disinformation from all sides,the Russians and the Iranians and Syrians. So take your pick. From the Left, we get the refrain that John Kerry is Colin Powell, that Barack Obama is the same as W. Interesting how the Libyan intervention just met with howling from Republicans about Obama leading from behind.
++Perhaps, it is best that the nuttiness of the past few years comes condensed to the Syrian issue.
++Meanwhile, if you want to agitate for something, agitate for humanitarian assistance to the over 4 million Syrians displaced.
++My e-mails have been lighting up with the usual Obama hate and cries about Benghazi. On Libya, let's be clear--for a few billion dollars, the US secured its chemical stockpiles left behind when W made a deal with Qaddafhi on his nuclear program,a dictator was toppled and the British, to be retained the oil. Four casualties makes it less than President Reagan's invasion of Grenada.
++Expect weeks of insanity with everyone expressing an opinion about something they don't know anything about.
Saturday, August 31, 2013
Last of August Mayhem
++Despite pundits claiming that Kerry and Hagel are pissed at President Obama for taking it to Congress,they report they're delighted. Liberal organizations who oppose intervention in Syria applauded the President for his daring in going to the Hill. The GOP leadership seems split on the issue.
++But I digress, the world lost a great man of literature this week with the passing of Nobel laureate Seamus Heaney at the age of 71.
++The White House dinners of Republicans and Democrats to has out budget differences ended this week and there appears no likelihood they will convene in the future.
++John Boehner says there are no budget deals. The Speaker will face a contentious Syria vote,a budget vote and a debt ceiling vote when he returns.
++Rand Paul says Boehner will be ousted if he accepts any immigration reform that will resemble the Senate's bill in the least. Teabag resistance to immigration reform didn't explode like people anticipated but yesterday they heckled Marco Rubio.
++Over 100,000 attended the 50th anniversary of the March on Washington. In my opinion, President Obama made an effective, but not electrifying speech on the agenda that remains uncompleted. He had the cadences at point but downplayed so no one would compare his oratory with Martin Luther King. Naturally, everyone criticized him for his speech, which was marred by a poor sound system. Presidents Clinton and Carter also spoke.
++After a powerful ceremony, the biggest whiners were Republicans who claimed they had not be invited. Of course, five weeks before the event, every Republican Congressman and woman was invited, the leadership was invited to speak. But the GOP complained that the African-American Senator from South Carolina, Tim Scott, had not been invited to speak. Of course, it was untrue. Boehner was at fundraisers and Eric Cantor was in North Dakota at the behest of the oil lobby. Republicans did have a luncheon to commemorate the event with Jack Kemp's son,and minority representation.
++Teabagger candidate for New Jersey Senator,"Blind Steve" Lonegan decided to attack Cory Booker as gay.
++Pat Robertson said that gays spread AIDS by cutting people with special rings.
++Liz Cheney said she was against same sex marriage in response to an incoherent attack by Mike Enzi who suggested she was for pedophiles. Her system Mary, who is married to her long-term partner, said Liz was nuts.
++The two largest counties in New Mexico have decided to marry same sex couples because that state's law is so unclear that it does not prohibit it. GOP lawmakers are up in arms are trying to intervene to stop it.
++Ruth Bader Ginzberg will be the first Supreme Court judge to perform a same sex marriage.
++The IRS said it will recognize all same sex couples in any state whether marriage is prohibited or not.
++The Veterans Administration was ordered by the court to give benefits to same sex couples.
++The federal government has ordered the extension of Medicare to same sex couples.
++Eric Holder ordered the DOJ to recognize or tolerate the legalization of marijuana in Colorado and Washington State. Earlier he had ordered a review of sentencing guidelines for drug convictions.
++America's congressman Louie Gohmert appeared as guest host for the Focus on Your Family,not Mine Radio Show with former Teabag congressman West. Louie told the audience that global climate change was a hoax promoted by Bill Gates to promote population control. This agenda included getting people to vaccinate their children so the population could be "culled".
++I guess the Ross Perot Foundation heard that and donated $1 million to Planned Parenthood in Texas.
++One benefit of global climate change has been the discovery of a canyon in Greenland that is longer and deeper than the Grand Canyon. The canyon had never been seen in all of human existence until the glacier sheet over Greenland melted.
++The Snowden leaks produced the first public disclosure of the Intelligence community's black budget. The AmazonPost printed the story. Frankly, I thought it was larger than that.
Among the revelations is that ,despite this huge amount of money, key areas of strategic concern are simply unknown. Another revelation is that we have been in an intense state of cyberwarfare.
++There were a lot of revelations about the whole Snowden event this week. Next week, I'll try to examine them.
++But I digress, the world lost a great man of literature this week with the passing of Nobel laureate Seamus Heaney at the age of 71.
++The White House dinners of Republicans and Democrats to has out budget differences ended this week and there appears no likelihood they will convene in the future.
++John Boehner says there are no budget deals. The Speaker will face a contentious Syria vote,a budget vote and a debt ceiling vote when he returns.
++Rand Paul says Boehner will be ousted if he accepts any immigration reform that will resemble the Senate's bill in the least. Teabag resistance to immigration reform didn't explode like people anticipated but yesterday they heckled Marco Rubio.
++Over 100,000 attended the 50th anniversary of the March on Washington. In my opinion, President Obama made an effective, but not electrifying speech on the agenda that remains uncompleted. He had the cadences at point but downplayed so no one would compare his oratory with Martin Luther King. Naturally, everyone criticized him for his speech, which was marred by a poor sound system. Presidents Clinton and Carter also spoke.
++After a powerful ceremony, the biggest whiners were Republicans who claimed they had not be invited. Of course, five weeks before the event, every Republican Congressman and woman was invited, the leadership was invited to speak. But the GOP complained that the African-American Senator from South Carolina, Tim Scott, had not been invited to speak. Of course, it was untrue. Boehner was at fundraisers and Eric Cantor was in North Dakota at the behest of the oil lobby. Republicans did have a luncheon to commemorate the event with Jack Kemp's son,and minority representation.
++Teabagger candidate for New Jersey Senator,"Blind Steve" Lonegan decided to attack Cory Booker as gay.
++Pat Robertson said that gays spread AIDS by cutting people with special rings.
++Liz Cheney said she was against same sex marriage in response to an incoherent attack by Mike Enzi who suggested she was for pedophiles. Her system Mary, who is married to her long-term partner, said Liz was nuts.
++The two largest counties in New Mexico have decided to marry same sex couples because that state's law is so unclear that it does not prohibit it. GOP lawmakers are up in arms are trying to intervene to stop it.
++Ruth Bader Ginzberg will be the first Supreme Court judge to perform a same sex marriage.
++The IRS said it will recognize all same sex couples in any state whether marriage is prohibited or not.
++The Veterans Administration was ordered by the court to give benefits to same sex couples.
++The federal government has ordered the extension of Medicare to same sex couples.
++Eric Holder ordered the DOJ to recognize or tolerate the legalization of marijuana in Colorado and Washington State. Earlier he had ordered a review of sentencing guidelines for drug convictions.
++America's congressman Louie Gohmert appeared as guest host for the Focus on Your Family,not Mine Radio Show with former Teabag congressman West. Louie told the audience that global climate change was a hoax promoted by Bill Gates to promote population control. This agenda included getting people to vaccinate their children so the population could be "culled".
++I guess the Ross Perot Foundation heard that and donated $1 million to Planned Parenthood in Texas.
++One benefit of global climate change has been the discovery of a canyon in Greenland that is longer and deeper than the Grand Canyon. The canyon had never been seen in all of human existence until the glacier sheet over Greenland melted.
++The Snowden leaks produced the first public disclosure of the Intelligence community's black budget. The AmazonPost printed the story. Frankly, I thought it was larger than that.
Among the revelations is that ,despite this huge amount of money, key areas of strategic concern are simply unknown. Another revelation is that we have been in an intense state of cyberwarfare.
++There were a lot of revelations about the whole Snowden event this week. Next week, I'll try to examine them.
First Reactions to Obama's Call For Congressional Vote
++The National Security Council advised President Obama not to ask for a vote. The White House said after the speech that Obama may go it alone even if the Congress votes against a resolution. This was a reply to the sole unanswered question yelled at the President after his statement.
++New York Republican Peter King said that President Obama abdicated his responsibility by asking for a vote.
++John McCain and Lindsey Graham issued a joint statement that they would vote against a resolution unless President Obama made a larger military commitment and included regime change in his agenda.
++Senator Mitch McConnell said that the Presidency would only be strengthened by President Obama request for a vote.
++David Koch said the United States must avoid Syria because it would be drag into a mess.
++Former UN Ambassador John Bolton said President Obama made a mistake and should have gone ahead anyway.
++NewsMax crows that President Obama caved to Republican demands for a vote.
++Rand Paul is against any intervention in Syria because Christians might be killed.
++Sarah Palin jokingly said, "Let Allah sort it out."
++Senator Inhof is against the operation until such time that Obama can explain how he is going to pay for it and the broader policy toward the Middle East.
++Steven Cook at the Council of Foreign Relations writes in the Post that he is now against intervention because it would likely destroy what remains of the country.
++Ezra Klein in the Post's Wonkblog writes how the bombing could kill more civilians than save and trigger another humanitarian disaster.
++Samuel Knight wrote a lengthy post for Washington Monthly on the disgusting horse trading that will begin. He says President Obama lacks all credibility,that his arguments were unbelievable. He cites why this is not an answer to the humanitarian disaster and since Syria has been at war for two years that there is no urgency. He points to Kurdish children being decapitated by The Nursra Front and that didn't provoke any intervention. He also wishes people would consult the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an independent human rights group, that the plurality of killings have been done to the opposition.
++Josh Rogin reports that the Syrian opposition is still waiting for weapons and it was frustrated by the announcement, which would delay further actions until a vote.
++Leftwing blogs joke about Boehner making defending Obamacare as a condition for the vote or Eric Cantor wanting a restoration of the Bush tax cuts.
++New York Republican Peter King said that President Obama abdicated his responsibility by asking for a vote.
++John McCain and Lindsey Graham issued a joint statement that they would vote against a resolution unless President Obama made a larger military commitment and included regime change in his agenda.
++Senator Mitch McConnell said that the Presidency would only be strengthened by President Obama request for a vote.
++David Koch said the United States must avoid Syria because it would be drag into a mess.
++Former UN Ambassador John Bolton said President Obama made a mistake and should have gone ahead anyway.
++NewsMax crows that President Obama caved to Republican demands for a vote.
++Rand Paul is against any intervention in Syria because Christians might be killed.
++Sarah Palin jokingly said, "Let Allah sort it out."
++Senator Inhof is against the operation until such time that Obama can explain how he is going to pay for it and the broader policy toward the Middle East.
++Steven Cook at the Council of Foreign Relations writes in the Post that he is now against intervention because it would likely destroy what remains of the country.
++Ezra Klein in the Post's Wonkblog writes how the bombing could kill more civilians than save and trigger another humanitarian disaster.
++Samuel Knight wrote a lengthy post for Washington Monthly on the disgusting horse trading that will begin. He says President Obama lacks all credibility,that his arguments were unbelievable. He cites why this is not an answer to the humanitarian disaster and since Syria has been at war for two years that there is no urgency. He points to Kurdish children being decapitated by The Nursra Front and that didn't provoke any intervention. He also wishes people would consult the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an independent human rights group, that the plurality of killings have been done to the opposition.
++Josh Rogin reports that the Syrian opposition is still waiting for weapons and it was frustrated by the announcement, which would delay further actions until a vote.
++Leftwing blogs joke about Boehner making defending Obamacare as a condition for the vote or Eric Cantor wanting a restoration of the Bush tax cuts.
Obama's Masterful Speech--The Guns of August
++When news that the Assad regime used chemical weapons on its population, the UK, France, Germany,Turkey,the Arab League and the United States said they should be punished. By today, it was down to France, the old colonial master of Syria,Canada and the United States. Prime Minister Cameron lost the parliamentary vote to use military force, the first such loss by a British Prime Minister since 1782. And Russian Prime Minister Putin thought the charge was ridiculous.
++President Obama spent the week giving informal interviews on the issue of Syria, with a specific reference on his concerns about proliferation and the challenge the use of such weapons placed on an international community, which has banned the use of such weapons after WWII.
++John Kerry made one statement about the use of these weapons and then yesterday made a speech outlining the specific intelligence that enabled the United States to make its conclusions. The intelligence was ranked "High Confidence", which is one step below "Certain". The assessment was that communications intercepts located the specific instructions and preparations to use the weapons and the specific units commanded to carry the operation out.
++During the last few days, it was clear from the reactions from the Left and the Right that the ghosts of W and Cheney hang over the whole enterprise. Those who are against intervention question the information about chemical weapons, likening Kerry speech to Colin Powell's speech on WMD's to the United Nations. Powell's Chief of Staff, Col. Larry Wilkinson said, "It was deja vu all of again".
++The difference in my opinion is that with Iraq we were talking about hypothetical WMDs, which never materialized, and here we are talking about the actual use of WMDS with vivid, graphic use of videos of adults and children dying.
++During the last two days, both President Obama and Senator Kerry briefed scores of congressmen in the Senate and the House. Nancy Pelosi and Dianne Feinstein came out for actions against Assad as did Senator Franken. One thought that was it. The President did his due diligence, briefed Congress, now he could make his decision and presumably act unilaterally. But House Republicans with 20 Democrats sent the President a letter demanding congress authorize military force, a situation that didn't occur under the prior administration.
++Comments, blogs and the punditocracy commented that Obama got himself in trouble previously by saying chemical weapons were a redline,the military was skeptical about the effectiveness of any action and progressives warned Obama about his campaign promises of changing a page for the the United States in the Middle East.
++Everyone used their favorite analogies. Is this the beginning of World War I again, the first steps in a regional conflagration? Is this Kossovo or Iraq? The major points of agreement were that Syria was now a failed state torn apart by ethnic and sectarian strife and that any American intervention would make it worse, bring in Iranians and encourage attacks on neighboring countries. The week's discussions were about the various forms of Armaggedon about to occur.
++So today was the day. President Obama addressed the press corps. He had made his decision. He would authorize military strike of a limited nature and time frame. There would be no invasion. There would be no boots on the ground. Yesterday he had said the actions would not be aimed at "regime change". Today, he asserted he had the President right to embark on the decision even if the United Nations Security Council did approve. He said the U.S. military was in position and that actions were not time specific. They could take place in days, weeks or months.
++He admitted the American public was war weary. He said the United States remained committed to the Syrian opposition, the refugees and to a government of reconciliation. He said he would take his message to the American public.
++President Obama said that these issues were too big for business as usual. He argued that we spent the years after WWII creating international norms to govern states' behavior and that the Syrian situation was a challenge to the United States and the international community. He said that not doing anything would have consequences and that people advocating this should be aware of the message to countries who aim to create nuclear weapons and proliferate biological warfare. He said he would be urging our international partners to politically stand behind us.
++He ended his statement by saying that this is not a partisan issue or who is in the White House. He urged Congress to vote on whether the United States would meet its commitments. He said it was time for Congress to take ownership of how America acts overseas.
++ The immediate aftermath was that Harry Reid wanted to call the Senate back into session and end their recess immediately to debate and vote on the measure. John Boehner issued a statement by the House Republicans that they would get around to it September 9th when recess ends.
++The blogosphere immediately applauded President Obama adroitly putting this on the back of Congress and ,depending on your politics, saying he basically wants it to fail. Personally, I don't agree.
++The one very interesting effect this challenge to Congress will have is to trigger open warfare within the GOP between the isolationists and the internationalists. And it will be interesting to see whether the GOP wants to extract concessions from the President to even hold a vote. The repercussions for the GOP will be very serious.
++Finally, whether you are for intervening or not, there should be agreement that the United States must step up the humanitarian efforts for the Syrian refugees, now numbering over 1.5 million spread over Turkey,Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.
++President Obama spent the week giving informal interviews on the issue of Syria, with a specific reference on his concerns about proliferation and the challenge the use of such weapons placed on an international community, which has banned the use of such weapons after WWII.
++John Kerry made one statement about the use of these weapons and then yesterday made a speech outlining the specific intelligence that enabled the United States to make its conclusions. The intelligence was ranked "High Confidence", which is one step below "Certain". The assessment was that communications intercepts located the specific instructions and preparations to use the weapons and the specific units commanded to carry the operation out.
++During the last few days, it was clear from the reactions from the Left and the Right that the ghosts of W and Cheney hang over the whole enterprise. Those who are against intervention question the information about chemical weapons, likening Kerry speech to Colin Powell's speech on WMD's to the United Nations. Powell's Chief of Staff, Col. Larry Wilkinson said, "It was deja vu all of again".
++The difference in my opinion is that with Iraq we were talking about hypothetical WMDs, which never materialized, and here we are talking about the actual use of WMDS with vivid, graphic use of videos of adults and children dying.
++During the last two days, both President Obama and Senator Kerry briefed scores of congressmen in the Senate and the House. Nancy Pelosi and Dianne Feinstein came out for actions against Assad as did Senator Franken. One thought that was it. The President did his due diligence, briefed Congress, now he could make his decision and presumably act unilaterally. But House Republicans with 20 Democrats sent the President a letter demanding congress authorize military force, a situation that didn't occur under the prior administration.
++Comments, blogs and the punditocracy commented that Obama got himself in trouble previously by saying chemical weapons were a redline,the military was skeptical about the effectiveness of any action and progressives warned Obama about his campaign promises of changing a page for the the United States in the Middle East.
++Everyone used their favorite analogies. Is this the beginning of World War I again, the first steps in a regional conflagration? Is this Kossovo or Iraq? The major points of agreement were that Syria was now a failed state torn apart by ethnic and sectarian strife and that any American intervention would make it worse, bring in Iranians and encourage attacks on neighboring countries. The week's discussions were about the various forms of Armaggedon about to occur.
++So today was the day. President Obama addressed the press corps. He had made his decision. He would authorize military strike of a limited nature and time frame. There would be no invasion. There would be no boots on the ground. Yesterday he had said the actions would not be aimed at "regime change". Today, he asserted he had the President right to embark on the decision even if the United Nations Security Council did approve. He said the U.S. military was in position and that actions were not time specific. They could take place in days, weeks or months.
++He admitted the American public was war weary. He said the United States remained committed to the Syrian opposition, the refugees and to a government of reconciliation. He said he would take his message to the American public.
++President Obama said that these issues were too big for business as usual. He argued that we spent the years after WWII creating international norms to govern states' behavior and that the Syrian situation was a challenge to the United States and the international community. He said that not doing anything would have consequences and that people advocating this should be aware of the message to countries who aim to create nuclear weapons and proliferate biological warfare. He said he would be urging our international partners to politically stand behind us.
++He ended his statement by saying that this is not a partisan issue or who is in the White House. He urged Congress to vote on whether the United States would meet its commitments. He said it was time for Congress to take ownership of how America acts overseas.
++ The immediate aftermath was that Harry Reid wanted to call the Senate back into session and end their recess immediately to debate and vote on the measure. John Boehner issued a statement by the House Republicans that they would get around to it September 9th when recess ends.
++The blogosphere immediately applauded President Obama adroitly putting this on the back of Congress and ,depending on your politics, saying he basically wants it to fail. Personally, I don't agree.
++The one very interesting effect this challenge to Congress will have is to trigger open warfare within the GOP between the isolationists and the internationalists. And it will be interesting to see whether the GOP wants to extract concessions from the President to even hold a vote. The repercussions for the GOP will be very serious.
++Finally, whether you are for intervening or not, there should be agreement that the United States must step up the humanitarian efforts for the Syrian refugees, now numbering over 1.5 million spread over Turkey,Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.
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