Predictions and other stuff

I've been absent because I was waiting for some rationality to appear in our politics. No such luck. Old Republicans like Bob Dole and Bill Frist came out to support health care reform only to be slapped aside by the sitting team. The health care sausage making is about two-thirds through and Hapless Harry Reid has managed to put in a public option, which paves the way for this major reform to be adopted by Christmas break. My gut tells me the late night assault on health care reform by the insurance industry kicks the can over. It was too blatantly an act of intimidation.

I believe the no vote on the Gay Marriage Proposition in Maine will pass. The reasons have more to do about Maine than the issue. During the 2008 presidential election, Republican Senator Susan Collins begged the RNC to stop the Bill Ayres robocalling against Obama because Mainers were offended by outsiders trying to pressure them. The pro-Gay marriage campaign ran ads with real people from Maine while the anti-marriage crowd ran the same people seen in California and ran alarms about the possibility of gay marriage actually being taught in school. The Maine attorney general and the head of the school boards had to shut this down. The so-called teachers in the ads were from Christian Schools of states to be named later. The other slip was that the anti-gay marriage crowd ,according to Maine law, has to reveal their donors, which they are suing to prevent. Not a great image to have. While the vote is close, I think marriage equality will hold. This would be the first electoral victory on this issue after a series of defeats.

I also see Creigh Deeds going down to defeat in Virginia. I don't think the Obama get out the vote blitz at the end will be enough to save him. Deeds made one fatal mistake in turning down Obama's early offer to campaign and then ran a lackluster campaign.

The most defeatable Governor-Jon Corzine, will squeak to victory in New Jersey. Doggett's third party run will siphon off the Christie vote. Christie's campaign has been mired in controversy over the past month.

In the very beautful congressional district in upstate New York, the Republicans look like they could actually lose the district for the first time since 1871. This district was never won by Senator Pat Moynihan or Hillary Clinton during their Senate runs. It is as solid a Republican district as could be. But the Republican assemblywomen chosen by the party is facing a rich Conservative Party candidate supported by the teabaggers, Dick Armey, head teabagger, Sarah Palin, The Club of Growth, Tim Pawlenty and assorted Southern congressmen. It is a preview of the fratricidal goings-on in Republican ranks.

At the end of the day, the 2009 electoral contests will reveal nothing about the future. But the internal revolt of teabaggers, Ron Paulists and others to "purge" the Republican party of all those who fail to conform to the anti-government mantra will delay the party's rebuilding into a national force. Personally, I don't think Republicans can get their act together in time for 2012.
Even with electoral victories, it's hard to project anything the party represents.

Dick Cheney resurfaced at Frank Gaffney's Award dinner to try and win the national security debates he lost in 2004. This time it's Obama fault and not George W. Having failed to pay attention to Afghanistan for eight years, Cheney demands that Obama escalate now to protect our troops. We all remember John McCain's Afghanistan policy--"just muddle through". Now even John wants Surge II. By the time I return from Africa, the decision will be made and it will probably be sending more troops but not the total requested by General McChrystal.

I also believe Iran will accept the third country enrichment proposal supported by the United States. The reason--all sides need to buy time. Our digital generation reports that Iranian pro-democracy activity has increased--not decreased over the last few weeks, despite our own media's failure to report.

If you want to know what President Obama foresees for our economy, you should listen to the Geek-in Chief's address to MIT. I believe this was as significant as JFK's Moon speech. It received hardly any attention ,probably because it was too wonky. But he outlined the role new energy technologies will play in transforming our national economy. A little known fact--within the stimulus package was the largest funding of scientific and technological research in the history of the world. As one of the last Republicans who believes in science, this was deliriously wonderful.

Meanwhile back to 2012 GOP prospects, it's clear the next Republican presidential nominee will be a creationist--Palin, Huckabee, Pawlenty are all anti-evolution people. Mitt Romney, much to his political disgrace, is not a creationist. For the anti-government party, one has to look toward Oklahoma for the new bill being proposed on the fetus as person, which requires a battery of papers to be filled out by the pregnant woman and that doctors will be forced to conduct periodic vaginal probes to determine viability. The state's Senate delegation is headed by foremost climate change denier Jim Inhofe and Senator Ensign's adultery enabler Tom Coburn. How strange is this mix and can the world's largest--even though damaged--economy afford these people?

New Gallup polls show more Americans than ever are religiously "unaffiliated" and the number of "atheists" is growing. Atheist Christopher Hitchens retained his intellectual honesty by noting that the unaffiliated are not those who are not religious but those who have been turned off by the religious right. Evangelicals sensing this recently held a conference at a seminary where they expressed alarm that the younger generation of evangelicals believe politicians are all hypocrites and that religious people should get back to religion. Somehow this became a debate between Christopher Hitchens and a minister on FOX over the rise in unbelief and the minister "proving" Christianity, which is beside the point of recent findings. The religious right's failure to dissent from GOP positions on the economy and healthcare reform gives validates alot of the younger generation's perceptions.

New Gingrich finally woke up from his stupor. Newt is coming out against the "purge "of the Republican Party,saying that with 20% you can have a very vigorous movement but to govern you need 50% plus 1. Party ID has now slipped to 20% and people fear that 20% is composed of birthers, vaxers, tenthers and the handful of neoconservatives left. The new plurality in American politics are independents, which have a slight lead over the Democrats. It's hard to envision independents breaking for a group of people who act mad.

Roger Ailes said he won't run for President. It's delicious to see the brains behind Nixon's media efforts being attacked by the Obama White House. Ailes has broken new grounds in news broadcasting. Fox News is the first major metwork ever to have organized and promoted months in advance anti-government rallies. This is a whole new dimension to political activism.

And I leave you for a while with the following question," Why isn't Karl Rove in jail?"