Foolish Fun

Allan Richter has already predicted President Obama's re-election twice using his matrix of leadership qualities. Although it's totally irrelevant,it's great fun to speculate on 2012 when nothing is real. Intrade has Obama at a 58.9% chance of winning re-election. Even if he lost every Red State he won in 2008, he would still win an electoral victory.

Republican Consultant Mark McKinnon and Myra Adams,writer and political observer, weigh in at the Daily Beast on the 12 reasons Obama wins in 2012.

1. The Power of the Incumbency. Of the last 56 presidential elections, 31 have involved incumbents, 21 of those won more than one term. They claim Obama now has better-than-67 percent chance of winning re-election.

2. Love Story Continues. Here I disagree. They say that while the media can be critical of Obama he has never faced the extreme 24-hour-a-day derangement that has plagued other recent presidents. The media's treatment of Obama is worth millions to the campaign. Personally I have never seen a President who has been trashed and accused of more nonsense than Obama. That includes Clinton and George W. What the writers neglect is the millions upon millions generated by the Koch Brothers and others to gin up racist hatred of the President.

3.Billion-Dollar Campaign. President Obama's 2012 relection effort could be the first campaign to raise $1 billion, since he raised $750 million in 2008. The two authors say that both sides will break new financing records.

4. Experienced Campaign Organization. Obama is running with the same Chicago-based campaign team and will benefit from experience and memory. Mistakes will not be repeated.

5. Obama's Charm Offensive. Obama can win crowds with his oratory. He is personable likeable, has an attractive family and his favorables are climbing. His average right now is 49.9. CNN just had him at 52%. This is comfortably in the range of Reagan, Clinton and Bush's approval ratings at this time. He also has extremely high likeability numbers, running into the 70%.

6. The Economy is Improving. As the economy goes, so goes Obama's relection prospects. What's most important is whether the American people believe the economy is improving in 2012, not whether it actually is. His campaign theme might be :he brought us back from the brink.

7. They'll be Back. The 2010 midterm voters were older, whiter and more conservative than those in 2008. Despite white flight from the Democratic Party, young voters, more minorities, more women and generally more liberals will be back in 2012. Obama's billion-dollar campaign fund will find some way to get his core constituents to the polls.

8. Obama "The Moderate". 40% of Americans now see the President as a moderate. That's up 10 percent from a year ago. More importantly, 44 percent of independents now call Obama a moderate, up from 28% a year ago. If the Republicans become viewed as strident and over-reaching on the Hill--Bet on It, Obama will be well positioned as a moderating force.

9.Republican Sparring Match. With no obvious frontrunner, the Republican primary season may drag on and become messy. This is likely because the RNC changed the rules of the primaries so they are no longer winner-take-all. Republicans will debate who is more Reaganesque , while Obama will stay above the fray, looking presidential.

10.Neverending Campaign. Organizing for America (OFA) never stopped working since 2008 and continuously targets its 13 million members. It played a key role in lobbying for health care and has weighed in against repealing healthcare. In other words, contrary to some progressives' complaints, OFA never ended its campaigning.

11. Hispanic Vote Growing. Obama earned 67% of the Hispanic vote in 2008. The Five State Voter Project, sponsored by the Hispanic Institute, is under way to increase Hispanic voter participation in five states;New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Colorado. Winning all of these states could seal the deal for Obama. Remember what happened in 2010, when the Hispanics came out and elected Harry Reid and Michael Bennett in Colorado.

12. Several Paths to 270. This was true in 2008. David Plouffe figured out every conceivable way Obama could reach 270. As we said he could lose all five key red states and still win 272.

That's fun. They promised to return with 12 ways Obama could lose.