!8 Months To Go

++President Obama enjoyed himself yesterday when he visited Wisconsin. He bragged about the Supreme Court decisions ,the state of the economy and announced his new overtime rules, which will benefit millions.

++At the same time,lurking around his whole presidency, has been the threat of assassination. A man from La Crosse , Wisconsin, was arrested for making threats against President Obama's life. I can't help but think that the same-sex ruling at the Supreme Court and the assault on the confederate flag will ignite more such threats before his days as President are finished.

++The Wall Street Journal maintains that President Obama is gearing up for a campaign of initiatives on domestic policy. 

++In international affairs, the table is set. We are looking at a possible Iran nuclear deal this coming week,America is opening an embassy with or without an ambassador,and we look forward to a climate change agreement in December.

++President Obama faces another effort to de-rail the Iranian talks through another Kirk and Mendendez bill that extends sanctions against Iran another 10 years. While it is doubtful the bill can pass a Democratic filibuster, the White House is thinking about artfully declaring some sanctions as "nuclear", others as being against terrorism and Iran's development of ballistic missiles.

++Domestically, President Obama in the fall will have to negotiate a horrible GOP budget which will again make an effort to paralyze Obamacare and further cut the social welfare state. 

++While President Obama is trying to mend fences with labor after the bruising trade fight,the Supreme Court in the fall will be trying to gut public unions.

++It is a matter of whether President Obama can run the tailwind of his success or be caught in the turbulent crosswinds from the GOP.

++One remaining item on his agenda is investment in infrastructure. With the highway fund running out of funds in September,he is likely to make a full-court press on Congress to approve infrastructure spending. It will be interesting to see how much the congressional GOP will avoid embarrassing their 2016 candidates by trying to block what was once a Republican issue.

++It will be interesting as we close 2016 to see how the GOP plays the economic issue. Around the Beltway, unemployment is 4.7%. Business Insider is trying to argue 4% os the new 5%. This last quarter was the first time that wages of the 99% started to increase since the Great Recession. They may a 3.66% gain over the past.

++For Democrats, the economy is clear. They must be both assertive in defense of President Obama's incredible record, the longest job creation record since the 1990s, but also campaign on the pitfalls. The GOP will pretend the recovery never happened and that the Great Recession didn't happen under the last President.

++Are we seeing a paradigm shift in the United States to more liberal policies? The last quarter saw an increase in self-identifying Democrats for the first time since before the last election. Public polling sees the American people support Bernie Sanders' positions by significant majorities. But will this tendency hold as we prepare to be swamped by campaign money?

++Right now, it is unclear to me what the GOP can campaign on? But they will try and gin up more fodder for culture wars. They will campaign on security--this from the people who brought you 9/11.

++Can President Obama get out of the summer in decent shape? He will only have one left before he exits office. 

++If he nails the Iran nuclear deal and the climate change accord and manage to avoid the created recession the GOP has in store for the country,he will leave behind a profound legacy of consequence and alter our political language.