++PEC is open. As Sam Wang writes, he doesn't have Nate Silver's resources at ESPN but he has his readers. Today's discussion is on the Republican primaries and doubts cast on Nate believing that "The Party Decides". Sam's response is now the polls decide more than the party. An interesting discussion follows.
++The readers discuss Sam Trende's belief that the GOP can win by getting over 67% of white votes and a large turnout of about 67-70% from whites. The readers apparently have a Trende app and can only come up with a 280 electoral vote count when they give the GOP candidate Reagan's white percentage and cheat and underestimate Hispanics. This will be the post-mortem analysis of 2016. Was the Trende thesis real or false?
++The readers debate whether Trump has busted through they door with his xenophobia and racism because he needs this enthusiasm to reach these numbers.
++Readers believe a two state victory for Trump would give him the momentum to take South Carolina and make Super Tuesday moot. Even though Trump may lose the Iowa Caucus and come in second,his delegate number might even top Cruz anyway.
++The readers are puzzled by Nate Silver's insistence that Rubio is the establishment guy who can go all the way. Rubio is inching up in the polls but coming in third and second in New Hampshire doesn't recommend him strongly.
++Sam Wang himself chimes in to say that Christie,Bush and Kasich support would bleed into Trump. Rubio can't count on those supporters coming to him. Wang also says that Trump/Carson, Cruz and Establishment don't really constitute three different factions. Cruz seems to be in a category himself. In Iowa, it looks like Cruz is picking up the Carson vote, while in New Hampshire,Trump is.
++But please consult Sam Wang's website as 2016 unfolds. He has picked a philosophical fight with Nate Silver.
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