The South Carolina Primary

++After last night's debate,Nate Silver has Trump winning with 82%,polls only, and 70% with polls plus. Marco Rubio is at 6% polls only, and 14% with polls plus, and Cruz is at 9% down and 8% polls plus and downward.

++Hillary is 98% polls only and greater than 99% with polls plus.

++Politico has the Donald blowing it, according to insiders. But I wonder the Donald went after George W. Bush with tongs and not only saying he lied us into the Iraq War but also failed to protect the US during 9-11. Rubio countered it was Bill Clinton's fault that he didn't killed Osama Bin Laden when he had the chance. (Remember the Wag the Dog episode when he tried.) But the Donald kept up by pointing out that Bush had been briefed by the CIA on the threat but did nothing. Then the Donald said he had hundreds of his friends who died with the collapse of the Twin Towers. Insiders felt he had entered the taboo area and I am glad he did.

++Why the Donald is still favored to win South Carolina is that the issues of trade he talks about are pertinent to a state that has lost plants and factories overseas. The state has over 30% Republicans saying they are moderate. Plus the Donald's populism is meant to appeal to the white working class Democrats who feel abandoned in the state.

++As Sam Wang has written, if establishment Republicans can't get their act together after Nevada,it will be a Donald versus Cruz race, which will provoke heartburn.

++I was surprised by Josh Marshall feeling Rubio is toast. Shallow ,I understand, but already writing him off. A replay of the debate shows that ,while Rubio didn't do Marco Robot,he got damaged by talking on Trump.

++Jeb gave a very calm and reassuring interview to Politico that bespoke his "compassionate conservatism" and his concerns about families burdened with student debt and those falling through the cracks. But then he makes statements of how proud he was being the Commander of the Florida National Guard because they fulfilled the key task of protecting Abu Ghraib. Maybe that sells to the GOP primary voter but it is tone deaf to the rest of the public. The more Trump pushing on Iraq the more Jeb will disintegrate.

++If you notice in last night's debate,it is all White all the time. The GOP autopsy is officially dead. One wonders if both Rubio and Cruz won't be hurt by their exchanges in Spanish. And the more media throws attention to Pastor Cruz who is a real wing nut the better. But notice the answers to the question about Paul Ryan's concern about the poor. We had the usual dog whistles about people earning their way out of dependency and Rubio called for "welfare reform", which we already had under Bill Clinton to disastrous effect.

++The other interesting thing is that the candidates walked away from their war-like pronunciations on Syria. There was none of the neoconservative posturing. "Arm the Kurds" And step up air strikes. Rubio fumbled when he said "Get rid of Assad and fight ISIS". The Donald put the brakes on this saying "we don't know who we are backing now." The end result was confusion and it was clear the more they campaign the less stomach Republican voters have for war--which is why the Donald has basically absorbed a modified Rand Paul position.

++Josh Marshall was right that all the candidates with the exception of John Kasich descended to Trump's position in attacking each other. Only the Donald wins at that game. 

++Rubio pedaling the New American Century Project is ironic because Jeb was a primary player in the 1990s. I notice JEB! has mentioned that in a debate yet.