++Wayne Madsen, a known intelligence journalist and conspiracy pundit, talked to Infowar about Jeane Paltry's suspicious "hanging" suicide in Tarpon Springs,Florida. He claims he regularly talked with her and he believed her discreet escort service was an intelligence operation.
++He said the George W. Bush administration went after her when she announced she was retiring to Europe with her millions and feared she would go public in Der Spiegel. The Bush administration fired the federal prosecutor who was investigating Bob Ehrlich,the Republican Governor of Maryland's use of prostitiutes.
++He named Dick Cheney as a long-term client not only for himself but for Halliburton and KBR. Jack Abramoff was named in the Ehrlich case.
++Madsen said that the D.C. Madam was primarily Virginia-based and entertained GOP presidential candidates such as John McCain, Fred Thompson and Rudy Guiliani. Former CIA director Porter Goss was named as a client.
++One of Paltry's women also committed suicide a week before she did.
++So her lawyer is treading on some big toes if he releases the remaining phone numbers. The D.C. Madam had a large list of lobbyists and corporations who used her to entertain congressmen and military types.
Thursday, March 31, 2016
For the Nominations,It's the Delegates; For the General Election, it's the Electoral College
++Today, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball revised their electoral vote map.
++In May 2015, they projected a close and competitive election. Democrats held 247 Electoral votes, Republicans 206 and toss-ups were 85.
++For all the talk of Trump re-arranging the electoral map, today Sabato has a Trump versus Clinton contest as follows: Democrats 347 and Republicans 191. Hillary wins a crushing victory and the election is no longer close and competitive.
++In May 2015, they projected a close and competitive election. Democrats held 247 Electoral votes, Republicans 206 and toss-ups were 85.
++For all the talk of Trump re-arranging the electoral map, today Sabato has a Trump versus Clinton contest as follows: Democrats 347 and Republicans 191. Hillary wins a crushing victory and the election is no longer close and competitive.
Could We Not Change The Narrative,Yet?
++The past two days have had several stories on how the polls are a disaster for Donald Trump and the Republicans. Technically, that was true before. But the story on the Donald has moved from the primaries to the general election.
++A democrat I know commented that Trump's recent remarks on abortion will hurt him with women. Duh. His approval rating to date has been about 23% among women and the vast majority of Republican women hating him. But the primary national polls show a different story. The Donald is in at least the mid-40s and near 50% as the preferred candidate for Republicans. So let them blow their brains out. Sad for the party. Sad for the nation overall because we are all the collateral Damage.
++In other new the lawyer for the D.C. Madam has already put the information on-line and it is clocked for a specific release date unless he changes the time himself.
++A democrat I know commented that Trump's recent remarks on abortion will hurt him with women. Duh. His approval rating to date has been about 23% among women and the vast majority of Republican women hating him. But the primary national polls show a different story. The Donald is in at least the mid-40s and near 50% as the preferred candidate for Republicans. So let them blow their brains out. Sad for the party. Sad for the nation overall because we are all the collateral Damage.
++In other new the lawyer for the D.C. Madam has already put the information on-line and it is clocked for a specific release date unless he changes the time himself.
President Obama Has Now Commuted More Sentences Than The Last Six Presidents Combined.
++On Wednesday, President Obama commuted the sentences of 61 prisoners bringing the total to 248.
++When President Obama began this as part of the reform efforts in the justice system,then-Attorney General said that reforms could affect 10,000 prisoners nation-wide.
++When President Obama began this as part of the reform efforts in the justice system,then-Attorney General said that reforms could affect 10,000 prisoners nation-wide.
CRUZ INVOKES THE 40B Rule against KASICH
++Hugh Hewitt ,whom you have seen as a moderator on the GOP debates, asked Ted Cruz about any rule changes in the convention he would favor. Cruz in his smarmy way said he would be disappointed is they did away with 40B, which says you can't be nominated unless you had won 6 or more primary or caucuses. This is the Romney rule used against Ron Paul in 2012 to deprive Paul of being nominated.
++What's interesting is that Cruz has been trying to poach Trump's delegates in Louisiana. The Donald has hired Paul Manafort,a GOP heavyweight to run his delegate operation. This signals real trench warfare.
++The latest attacks on Kasich are a counterattack to Kasich's effective ad on "Lying Ted",which says every time he opens his mouth he is lying.
++By now one would think that John Kasich is so far out of the game anyway he doesn't pose a threat to anyone. GOP establishment types and donors have urged Kasich to drop out.
++I think the reason Cruz is scared of Kasich is that there is trouble brewing with Cruz' secret life which should explode in public view before the convention.
++The disdain for Cruz among Republicans is palpable and they all have accused him of Nixonian dirty tricks in this campaign. We'll see in the next month what will transpire.
++At the last Townhall interviews with all three GOP contenders it was obvious that none of them felt bound to support the nominee.
++Kasich himself is on record saying Trump is ill-prepared for the presidency and his new attacks on Cruz indicates he feels the same about the Cruiser.
++Kasich has the support of the whole national security apparatus among the GOP and actually polls best against Hillary.
++Larry Sabato at Crystal Ball wrote today that Hillary would just crush Trump in a landslide. These are not the words of a partisan.
++What's interesting is that Cruz has been trying to poach Trump's delegates in Louisiana. The Donald has hired Paul Manafort,a GOP heavyweight to run his delegate operation. This signals real trench warfare.
++The latest attacks on Kasich are a counterattack to Kasich's effective ad on "Lying Ted",which says every time he opens his mouth he is lying.
++By now one would think that John Kasich is so far out of the game anyway he doesn't pose a threat to anyone. GOP establishment types and donors have urged Kasich to drop out.
++I think the reason Cruz is scared of Kasich is that there is trouble brewing with Cruz' secret life which should explode in public view before the convention.
++The disdain for Cruz among Republicans is palpable and they all have accused him of Nixonian dirty tricks in this campaign. We'll see in the next month what will transpire.
++At the last Townhall interviews with all three GOP contenders it was obvious that none of them felt bound to support the nominee.
++Kasich himself is on record saying Trump is ill-prepared for the presidency and his new attacks on Cruz indicates he feels the same about the Cruiser.
++Kasich has the support of the whole national security apparatus among the GOP and actually polls best against Hillary.
++Larry Sabato at Crystal Ball wrote today that Hillary would just crush Trump in a landslide. These are not the words of a partisan.
CRUZ SET TO WIN WISCONSIN--THEN THE SURPRISE
++Ted Cruz has moved to a ten point lead over Donald Trump in Wisconsin. Backed By The Local Conservative Radio announcers,Scott Walker and Paul Ryan, He Is Expected To Win The Primary.
++But underneath the surface, the Cruz campaign awaits the bombshell from the D.C. Madam lawyer who will release her phone numbers in the next two weeks. I thought the timeline favored John Kasich for exposure but the Madam was indicted in 2007, which would put Cruz in the frame.
++Yesterday in Wisconsin, Cruz denied everything about the National Enquirer case but was then asked a follow-up question "Have you ever been unfaithful to your wife?" Standing alongside him was Carly Fiorina who managed to deflect the question to another issue.
++Heidi Cruz has not been on the campaign trail the last week as Ted's amorous activities have been exposed. Even Trump supporters said that Trump was out of bounds in attacking Heidi have deflected the larger question.
++The media will portray after Wisconsin that Cruz is the great Trump killer but the latest Great White Hope will fail.
++But underneath the surface, the Cruz campaign awaits the bombshell from the D.C. Madam lawyer who will release her phone numbers in the next two weeks. I thought the timeline favored John Kasich for exposure but the Madam was indicted in 2007, which would put Cruz in the frame.
++Yesterday in Wisconsin, Cruz denied everything about the National Enquirer case but was then asked a follow-up question "Have you ever been unfaithful to your wife?" Standing alongside him was Carly Fiorina who managed to deflect the question to another issue.
++Heidi Cruz has not been on the campaign trail the last week as Ted's amorous activities have been exposed. Even Trump supporters said that Trump was out of bounds in attacking Heidi have deflected the larger question.
++The media will portray after Wisconsin that Cruz is the great Trump killer but the latest Great White Hope will fail.
Tuesday, March 29, 2016
CNN's GOP Townhall
++No one is commenting on the GOP Townhall tonight. Kasich said the problem with NATO is that there is too much socialism in Europe and political correctness and that's why Belgium missed the terrorism. By the way, Belgium didn't have a government last year and has been close to a libertarian paradise that exists in Europe--not a costliest country.
++Ted Cruz said his favorite food was cheese--Wisconsin-- get it.
++Just the same old, same old but all of them have become rightwing nuts.
++Ted Cruz said his favorite food was cheese--Wisconsin-- get it.
++Just the same old, same old but all of them have become rightwing nuts.
TRUMP'S POPULARITY DIVES SAYS POLITICO.
++At the same time Politico is saying Trump's popularity dives in the significant stretch of the campaign, a Bloomberg Politics Poll referred to in the same edition of Politico has:
TRUMP 48%, CRUZ 27%, Kasich 18%.
TRUMP 48%, CRUZ 27%, Kasich 18%.
Monday, March 28, 2016
Jill Abrahamson, Former editor of the New York Times,writes about Hillary in the Guardian
++I recommend this piece because it is hard through all the fog and noise to really establish that Hillary Clinton is basically honest and trustworthy.
++Abrahamson's reporting began with Whitewater and covered the billing "scandal" in the pre-Clinton presidency days. She says that it is Clinton's desire for privacy and secrecy that make it seem she is lying or covering up things.
++She goes over the email server,the Monica affair and the endless real and not so real scandals that Hillary has had to cope with.
++But the bottom-line is that after all these years she concluded that Hillary Clinton was certainly most honest than the current crew running for office and more so than most in politics. She points to the fact that Politifact ranks her the most honest in her statements, even more so than Sanders. Cruz and Trump are just basically pants on fire liars.
++Something to consider.
++Abrahamson's reporting began with Whitewater and covered the billing "scandal" in the pre-Clinton presidency days. She says that it is Clinton's desire for privacy and secrecy that make it seem she is lying or covering up things.
++She goes over the email server,the Monica affair and the endless real and not so real scandals that Hillary has had to cope with.
++But the bottom-line is that after all these years she concluded that Hillary Clinton was certainly most honest than the current crew running for office and more so than most in politics. She points to the fact that Politifact ranks her the most honest in her statements, even more so than Sanders. Cruz and Trump are just basically pants on fire liars.
++Something to consider.
Roger Stone's Radio Interview
++Nixon's Rat-fucker said matter-of-factly that he had nothing to do with the revelations about Cruz' mistresses. He outlined how Marco Rubio hired private detectives to find this out but sat on the materials for the chance to retaliate against anyone leaking information about Marco's penchant for getting spanked.
++He said since he isn't being paid,he resents Cruz calling him an henchman.
++He said no one went after Heidi Cruz. Her problem, he says, is she is a Bush Republican who served in various positions in the George W. Bush White House.
++He said Cruz better face up to the charges or sue the National Enquirer for damages. He says that at least two of the women have been identified. He said the situation will get a little complicated because is a blow job in a closet sex?
++He said Trump should tell Cruz at the next debate "Sue the National Enquirer or we will know it is true."
++He said since he isn't being paid,he resents Cruz calling him an henchman.
++He said no one went after Heidi Cruz. Her problem, he says, is she is a Bush Republican who served in various positions in the George W. Bush White House.
++He said Cruz better face up to the charges or sue the National Enquirer for damages. He says that at least two of the women have been identified. He said the situation will get a little complicated because is a blow job in a closet sex?
++He said Trump should tell Cruz at the next debate "Sue the National Enquirer or we will know it is true."
Sunday, March 27, 2016
While Ted Cruz Says Trump Attacks His Wife Because he Is Scared, This News In
++The Washington Post and other media outlets now have possession of several videos showing Ted Cruz had multiple trysts with a D.C. Hooker.
++And it turns out Cruz' campaign bought the rights of the nude pics of Melania from GQ and gave them to the SuperPac who used them in the anti-Trump ad. Seems a tad illegal of a campaign cooperating with a Superpac.
++A CIA profiler said Cruz was acting deceptive in denying the allegations made in the National Enquirer story.
++The Donald told Jon Karl of ABC he had nothing to do with the story and that he thought Cruz blaming him for this ignores who attacked whom first.
++Later today Trump said he had alot things to say about Heidi Cruz but wouldn't.
++And it turns out Cruz' campaign bought the rights of the nude pics of Melania from GQ and gave them to the SuperPac who used them in the anti-Trump ad. Seems a tad illegal of a campaign cooperating with a Superpac.
++A CIA profiler said Cruz was acting deceptive in denying the allegations made in the National Enquirer story.
++The Donald told Jon Karl of ABC he had nothing to do with the story and that he thought Cruz blaming him for this ignores who attacked whom first.
++Later today Trump said he had alot things to say about Heidi Cruz but wouldn't.
Jim Harrison Dies At The Age Of 78.
++I became a belated fan of this great American writer. His stories of the northern Michigan peninsula evoked the Hemingway of the Nick Adams stories. He was most famous for "Legends of the Fall" and his novellas, the most recent collection being the recently published "The Ancient Minstrel". I'll miss him.
Happy Easter!
I was wished a Happy Easter by a Jewish American and an Iranian Moslem.
From my rightwing fans, I received an email that said climate change was a cult and that it was meant to cover up for Obama never having done anything as President. So,it's Obama's fault!
++Maureen Dow must be getting soft or maybe it was the free plane ride. Her column "Obama's Last Tango" was sort of a begrudging tribute to Obama who is too cool for school. She mentions that the tango is often mentioned as "vertical solitude", which suits President Obama just fine. Mentioning the GOP hysteria over the Belgian attacks and Obama taking out the top ISIS commanders, she remarks," The President can go to a ballgame and still keep his eye on the ball.' I guess next week's column will trash talk Hillary Clinton.
++Ross Douthat on "Who Is Ted Cruz" actually shows some insight on the opportunistic ideological stances of Cruz. I thought this column was rare for Ross, who usually is clueless. He acknowledges that Cruz is loathed and would mean electoral ruin for the GOP. Ross says at least Barry Goldwater believed in what he said. Ouch!
++Frank Bruni writes "Lose with Cruz: A Love Story" which explains the tortured logic of the GOP establishment backing the one man they really,really do hate.
++ Jennifer Weiner in "Naked Lady Politics" gives a feminist spin on the Trump-Cruz spat over their wives and the meaning of Melania's nude photos.
From my rightwing fans, I received an email that said climate change was a cult and that it was meant to cover up for Obama never having done anything as President. So,it's Obama's fault!
++Maureen Dow must be getting soft or maybe it was the free plane ride. Her column "Obama's Last Tango" was sort of a begrudging tribute to Obama who is too cool for school. She mentions that the tango is often mentioned as "vertical solitude", which suits President Obama just fine. Mentioning the GOP hysteria over the Belgian attacks and Obama taking out the top ISIS commanders, she remarks," The President can go to a ballgame and still keep his eye on the ball.' I guess next week's column will trash talk Hillary Clinton.
++Ross Douthat on "Who Is Ted Cruz" actually shows some insight on the opportunistic ideological stances of Cruz. I thought this column was rare for Ross, who usually is clueless. He acknowledges that Cruz is loathed and would mean electoral ruin for the GOP. Ross says at least Barry Goldwater believed in what he said. Ouch!
++Frank Bruni writes "Lose with Cruz: A Love Story" which explains the tortured logic of the GOP establishment backing the one man they really,really do hate.
++ Jennifer Weiner in "Naked Lady Politics" gives a feminist spin on the Trump-Cruz spat over their wives and the meaning of Melania's nude photos.
Saturday, March 26, 2016
Drip. Drip. The Confirmations Come in
++The sister-in-law of Amanda Carpenter, one of the women Ted Cruz allegedly had an affair with, confirmed that Amanda fell with Cruz right before his launched his Senate campaign. "Our whole family knows about", she said.
You Won't Have Sam Wang To Kick Around For Awhile.
++The Princeton Elections Consortium is going to a low posting mode. Sam says both parties' nominations process is settled and he'll come back later when the general elections heats up.
++This might explain his rival Nate Silver beginning to tweet. Nate tweeted a map of the United States if women refused to vote for Trump. Completely blue. If only.
++Unlike Sam, Nate at least has basketball and baseball to occupy him.
++The Rolling Stones played Havana before a crowd of 200,000 or more. So ends the most historic week in Cuba for quite some time.
++This might explain his rival Nate Silver beginning to tweet. Nate tweeted a map of the United States if women refused to vote for Trump. Completely blue. If only.
++Unlike Sam, Nate at least has basketball and baseball to occupy him.
++The Rolling Stones played Havana before a crowd of 200,000 or more. So ends the most historic week in Cuba for quite some time.
Pervy Ted And The National Enquirer
++I bought the National Enquirer so you don't. The article on the five mistresses starts out by saying that Casanova Cruz is the target of a vicious "dirty tricks" campaign. I love the line ,"The leaked details are an attempt to destroy what's left of his White House campaign," a politico insider told the Enquirer.
++Roger Stone is quoted in the piece saying where's there is smoke, there is fire. "I have to believe this will hurt him with his evangelical Christian supporters."
++I like "Randy Ted" had a romp with a foxy political consultant in the closet of a state Republican convention.
++He also hooked up with a pretty 30-ish D.C. lawyer in a private room at the Republican Capitol Hill club.
++We have the "sexy Austin schoolteacher" who had a fling with Ted after he was appointed Texas Solicitor General.
++The last lover was a $1,000-a-night"Washington,D.C. call girl.
++The Enquirer has already reported Ted's booze-feuled past.
++But there is more. The Enquirer reported on Heidi's bizarre behavior on August 22,2005 when the police were alerted at 10pm that a woman was sitting holding her head near a busy expressway. She told the cops she had walked away from her home. Cruz told then officers "she was a danger to herself.
++A political blogger said" Cruz's image as a Christian Family Man is utterly destroyed."
++Virtually all the reporting is in conditional tenses and anonymous denials. But they weaved together all the rumors from Anonymous' threat to political insider saying "TED CRUZ SEX SCANDAL appears to be looming."
++And the MSM is saying that the staff of the National Enquirer has been changed. It's not like the tabloid of old. Huh!
++As they say,the optics are bad for Cruz.
++Roger Stone is quoted in the piece saying where's there is smoke, there is fire. "I have to believe this will hurt him with his evangelical Christian supporters."
++I like "Randy Ted" had a romp with a foxy political consultant in the closet of a state Republican convention.
++He also hooked up with a pretty 30-ish D.C. lawyer in a private room at the Republican Capitol Hill club.
++We have the "sexy Austin schoolteacher" who had a fling with Ted after he was appointed Texas Solicitor General.
++The last lover was a $1,000-a-night"Washington,D.C. call girl.
++The Enquirer has already reported Ted's booze-feuled past.
++But there is more. The Enquirer reported on Heidi's bizarre behavior on August 22,2005 when the police were alerted at 10pm that a woman was sitting holding her head near a busy expressway. She told the cops she had walked away from her home. Cruz told then officers "she was a danger to herself.
++A political blogger said" Cruz's image as a Christian Family Man is utterly destroyed."
++Virtually all the reporting is in conditional tenses and anonymous denials. But they weaved together all the rumors from Anonymous' threat to political insider saying "TED CRUZ SEX SCANDAL appears to be looming."
++And the MSM is saying that the staff of the National Enquirer has been changed. It's not like the tabloid of old. Huh!
++As they say,the optics are bad for Cruz.
Friday, March 25, 2016
And Now For A Different Opinion
++Glen Beck says that Ted Cruz was anointed by God and he was raised all his life to save the nation. His father said they prayed to God about Ted's running for President. And God spoke to Heidi and said ,"it was OK." Samantha Bee said that the lesson was that God wouldn't speak to ted directly.
Hush.Hush. It's Sinuendo!
++Chris Weigant spends the first half of his talking points on the Trump-Cruz feud. Weigant reproduces Cruz' full explanation of why he is saying it is Trump. Cruz says that Roger Stone, Nixon's ratfucker, is responsible and that rumors circulate one day before Trump tweets some insult against Cruz. The full explanation makes sense but the history of the charges rests in other candidates' camps.
++Weigant discusses how the Republican campaign has swirled down the toilet.
++Weigant discusses how the Republican campaign has swirled down the toilet.
Through The Transom
++One of the strange episodes in the Republican campaign was the early financial support the Cruz campaign gave Carly Fiorina. At the time, it didn't make any sense.
++In the last few days,this item has surfaced again in a new light. The new claim is that Cruz paid off Carly Fiorina to keep his mistress story quiet. Hmmm.
++In the last few days,this item has surfaced again in a new light. The new claim is that Cruz paid off Carly Fiorina to keep his mistress story quiet. Hmmm.
In "Keep It Sleazy" Daily Beast Says Cruz Blaming The Wrong Candidate.
++The Daily Beast did a survey of rightwing blogs and news sites to see whether anyone was peddling the Cruz mistress story. It turns out that many of them including Breibart said that Rubio's campaign had this information but they didn't publish it because it was slim.
++The Donald is connected to the publisher of the National Enquirer and could have planted the story but on the campaign trail the Rubio campaign was the only consistent source for the story.
++But Rubio's plans got dumped with the story about his Dominatrix.
++What did Heidi Cruz know and when did she know it? Could explain the depression.
++Democracy Underground has a poll "when will Cruz denials turn to asking for forgiveness?" The winners are between 3 to 7 days.
++The Donald is connected to the publisher of the National Enquirer and could have planted the story but on the campaign trail the Rubio campaign was the only consistent source for the story.
++But Rubio's plans got dumped with the story about his Dominatrix.
++What did Heidi Cruz know and when did she know it? Could explain the depression.
++Democracy Underground has a poll "when will Cruz denials turn to asking for forgiveness?" The winners are between 3 to 7 days.
Trump Responds To "Lyin" Ted
Trump said unlike Ted he was not surrounded by henchmen and goons. He said he had nothing to do with the Enquirer story that waas between Ted and the publication. He did say they were right about O.J. Simpson and Edwards. But he said he hoped they were wrong about Ted.
Ted Cruz ,while in Wisconsin,tell Trump To Stop Attacking His Wife.
++Now if you are in Wisconsin, wouldn't you want to know what the attacks were. I would. There haven't been any---yet-- only Donald threatening to spill the beans.
Cruz Says Trump Planted Story in The National Enquirer.
++This seemingly inconsequential piss-fight got more momentum as Rush Limbaugh reported the mistress story in detail and lamented the state of our media.
++Cruz' voice was heard on Fox News denying the allegations and saying the Donald persuaded the Enquirer to go with the story--which probably by now is sold-out.
++Cruz' voice was heard on Fox News denying the allegations and saying the Donald persuaded the Enquirer to go with the story--which probably by now is sold-out.
Washington Monthly Ponders Cruz' Mistresses.
++The Washington Monthly caught a CNN clips I missed. It was on the personal attacks between Cruz and Trump. Then they raised the mistress story. It turns out one of the panelists was Amanda Carpenter, one of Cruz' former communications directors. When asked about this and whether she would deny it. She referred the moderator to her lawyers. Hmmm.
The Cuban Mistress Crisis
++What were the "beans" Trump wanted to spill? The SuperPac "Make America Awesome" ran ads in Utah and Arizona showing Melania's nude photos from GQ magazine saying "She could be your new First Lady. Vote Cruz." The Donald replied he was going to spill the beans about Heidi Cruz. Those beans apparently concern her deep depression from ten years ago. She was found by a Texas State Trooper incoherent on the side of the road with a gun and threatening suicide. But all you have to do is google to find this out.
++Late last night on the East Coast, Politico,Gawker and the National Enquirer released a story that Ted Cruz had at least five mistresses here in Washington--a high powered lobbyist and a lawyer among them.
++But that wasn't the sex scandal that has been percolating the last few weeks. This story was crowded out by Marco Rubio's S&M story. It seems Ted shared Marco's fondness for prostitutes.
++Ted tweeted "Donald ,you are more of a coward than I thought--attacking Heidi." That's right! The Donald should come clean on Ted's extramarital escapades and his habit of hiring prostitutes. As JEB! said he's a "consistent conservative."
++Late last night on the East Coast, Politico,Gawker and the National Enquirer released a story that Ted Cruz had at least five mistresses here in Washington--a high powered lobbyist and a lawyer among them.
++But that wasn't the sex scandal that has been percolating the last few weeks. This story was crowded out by Marco Rubio's S&M story. It seems Ted shared Marco's fondness for prostitutes.
++Ted tweeted "Donald ,you are more of a coward than I thought--attacking Heidi." That's right! The Donald should come clean on Ted's extramarital escapades and his habit of hiring prostitutes. As JEB! said he's a "consistent conservative."
Nate Silver's Electoral Tweet
++Nate Silver tweeted the electoral map of Hillary versus Trump. Although he said it was as of today,Silver admits Trump can do little by November to improve his situation.
++The Electoral score is Hillary 364 and Trump 164 electoral votes. The Senate would go Democrat and true House would be tight.
++Silver says Trump's "Rust Belt" strength would allow him to win Indiana and Missouri.
++He would lose the rest of the Midwest,Georgia, North Carolina,Virginia and Florida as well as Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado.
++The Electoral score is Hillary 364 and Trump 164 electoral votes. The Senate would go Democrat and true House would be tight.
++Silver says Trump's "Rust Belt" strength would allow him to win Indiana and Missouri.
++He would lose the rest of the Midwest,Georgia, North Carolina,Virginia and Florida as well as Arizona, New Mexico and Colorado.
Thursday, March 24, 2016
Predict Markets
++Republican nominee: Trump 68%, Cruz 18%.
++Democratic Nominee: Clinton 87%, Sanders 14%.
++White House: Democrats 68%, Republicans 33%.
++Democratic Nominee: Clinton 87%, Sanders 14%.
++White House: Democrats 68%, Republicans 33%.
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
The Fourth Quarter President.
++The new New York Magazine has a piece on Obama's fourth quarter peace of mind. With unemployment less than 5%, little or no inflation,the median income back to 2008 (not yet the 2002 high),America is sort of acknowledging and approving of Obama. The most vigorous criticism now seems to come from the Left,nonsense resides on the Right.
++Today President Obama landed in Argentina and blasted Ted Cruz' idea of patrolling Muslim neighborhoods before they get "radicalized" saying that Obama just came from a country that conducted similar surveillance --a country from which Ted Cruz' father fled. Obama went on to say these were not American ideas and had to be rejected.
++New York Magazine says that Obama is morphing into an elder statesman role, which escaped his predecessors because he is exiting without a scandal or political foul-up.
++The political language ,already strange, has gotten bizarre. If you do not want Merrick Grantland confirmed and you don't want people to think you are an anti-semite, just argue ,as the conservatives are now,that Merrick is part of Obama's plot to be declared President for Life. For some reason,this is a negative. I would love Obama to be the President for the rest of my days. He's young enough and forward looking enough and I would feel safe and secure, knowing an adult was at the helm.
++Ted Cruz re-tweeted that Trump was a coward for attacking Heidi Cruz and that his campaign only used the nude photos of Melania that were in the public eye. Expect more on this issue in the days ahead.
++President Obama is expected to mount the campaign trail this year. OFA and the Democratic Party are counting on it.
++Remember President Obama's biannual summits on the threat of nuclear weapons? This coming week the National Security Summit is coming to Washington. Over 50 heads of state will attend and our lives will be made miserable.
++In response to the Right's criticism of President Obama not flying home immediately when Brussels was bombed and staying at the ballpark with his shades on and doing the wave with Raul,Obama answered that he was taking a chapter from David Ortiz' response during the bombings at the Boston Marathon where the Redsox star said ,"we are playing because it is our town and our society."
++A nice touch from yesterday was Mrs. Jackie Robinson attending the game at the same ballpark Jackie played in before he made the majors.
++An historic first Raul Castro actually answered two questions from the press.
++On the primary front, Trump's win in Arizona keeps him on track to sew the nomination up on June 6th. The rest if nonsense. Hillary may have lost two states but she is chugging to the nomination.
++Today President Obama landed in Argentina and blasted Ted Cruz' idea of patrolling Muslim neighborhoods before they get "radicalized" saying that Obama just came from a country that conducted similar surveillance --a country from which Ted Cruz' father fled. Obama went on to say these were not American ideas and had to be rejected.
++New York Magazine says that Obama is morphing into an elder statesman role, which escaped his predecessors because he is exiting without a scandal or political foul-up.
++The political language ,already strange, has gotten bizarre. If you do not want Merrick Grantland confirmed and you don't want people to think you are an anti-semite, just argue ,as the conservatives are now,that Merrick is part of Obama's plot to be declared President for Life. For some reason,this is a negative. I would love Obama to be the President for the rest of my days. He's young enough and forward looking enough and I would feel safe and secure, knowing an adult was at the helm.
++Ted Cruz re-tweeted that Trump was a coward for attacking Heidi Cruz and that his campaign only used the nude photos of Melania that were in the public eye. Expect more on this issue in the days ahead.
++President Obama is expected to mount the campaign trail this year. OFA and the Democratic Party are counting on it.
++Remember President Obama's biannual summits on the threat of nuclear weapons? This coming week the National Security Summit is coming to Washington. Over 50 heads of state will attend and our lives will be made miserable.
++In response to the Right's criticism of President Obama not flying home immediately when Brussels was bombed and staying at the ballpark with his shades on and doing the wave with Raul,Obama answered that he was taking a chapter from David Ortiz' response during the bombings at the Boston Marathon where the Redsox star said ,"we are playing because it is our town and our society."
++A nice touch from yesterday was Mrs. Jackie Robinson attending the game at the same ballpark Jackie played in before he made the majors.
++An historic first Raul Castro actually answered two questions from the press.
++On the primary front, Trump's win in Arizona keeps him on track to sew the nomination up on June 6th. The rest if nonsense. Hillary may have lost two states but she is chugging to the nomination.
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
Read President Obama's Speech to the Cuban People
++I've listened to our politicians at AIPAC, a video of someone I know saying Joe McCarthy was right, The Donald calling Belgium a "city.
This is all enough to make one go mad.
++As usually the bright spot was President Obama. Speaking at the National Theater in Havana, President Obama gave a nuanced speech to the Cuban people that said he was in Cuba to end the last remnant of the Cold War in the Americas.
++This was a difficult speech to write. Nixon in China and Reagan in Moscow didn't present the complex interrelationships of the two peoples. Our relationship with Cuba veered from supporting revolutionary activity in the late 19th century to wanting to annex it,to wanting to invade it.
++President Obama had to talk not only about the Cuban people today but also the exiles, many of whom fled oppression at home. And he had to talk about recent areas of cooperation, including ending civil war in Colombia that began in 1948,two years before I was born.
++While President Obama spoke about human rights and democracy. I thought he scored big on the whole issue of race and that both the U,.S. and Cuba share racism. The other area he scored on was what small businesses mean--a sense of self identity.
++There have been nifty elements of the Obama Cuban trip. Jackie Robinson's widow will be at today's baseball game between Tampa and Havana. Derek Jeter, Joe Torre and Luis Tiant will be on hand.
++Raul Castro was asked questions on human rights at the press conference. The agreement was that he would only answer one question but he had to answer two. And when he said Cuba didn't have political prisoners,the local human rights community immediately produced a list. The Cuban government isn't used to this.
++President Obama has almost exhausted all the ways the economic embargo can be modified without Congress completely lifting it. But only Congress can vote to lift the embargo. As we know by the composition of Congress that isn't happening anytime soon.
++President Obama was almost wistful in speaking about hope and change to the young people. It was as if he had to admit my trip here is about all you get until the future.
++He remains an island of sanity in a country that has gone amok.
This is all enough to make one go mad.
++As usually the bright spot was President Obama. Speaking at the National Theater in Havana, President Obama gave a nuanced speech to the Cuban people that said he was in Cuba to end the last remnant of the Cold War in the Americas.
++This was a difficult speech to write. Nixon in China and Reagan in Moscow didn't present the complex interrelationships of the two peoples. Our relationship with Cuba veered from supporting revolutionary activity in the late 19th century to wanting to annex it,to wanting to invade it.
++President Obama had to talk not only about the Cuban people today but also the exiles, many of whom fled oppression at home. And he had to talk about recent areas of cooperation, including ending civil war in Colombia that began in 1948,two years before I was born.
++While President Obama spoke about human rights and democracy. I thought he scored big on the whole issue of race and that both the U,.S. and Cuba share racism. The other area he scored on was what small businesses mean--a sense of self identity.
++There have been nifty elements of the Obama Cuban trip. Jackie Robinson's widow will be at today's baseball game between Tampa and Havana. Derek Jeter, Joe Torre and Luis Tiant will be on hand.
++Raul Castro was asked questions on human rights at the press conference. The agreement was that he would only answer one question but he had to answer two. And when he said Cuba didn't have political prisoners,the local human rights community immediately produced a list. The Cuban government isn't used to this.
++President Obama has almost exhausted all the ways the economic embargo can be modified without Congress completely lifting it. But only Congress can vote to lift the embargo. As we know by the composition of Congress that isn't happening anytime soon.
++President Obama was almost wistful in speaking about hope and change to the young people. It was as if he had to admit my trip here is about all you get until the future.
++He remains an island of sanity in a country that has gone amok.
Monday, March 21, 2016
Read Frank Rich In Today's New York Magazine
++"Maybe there was no Republican establishment after all" is the title of a very lengthy analysis by political writer Frank Rich of the rise and dominance of Donald Trump over the entire Republican field.
++Rich trashes the conservative commentariat for its fantasies of the Donald's collapse and its assertion that the Donald doesn't represent the beliefs of the sober-minded Republicans. Rich traces all of the Donald's race-baiting, nativist and misogynist talking backwards to the very genial Ronald Reagan and bring this up to date through George H.W.Bush and Mitt Romney.
++Rich starts the article off with a lengthy conversation with a Republican who worked for Romney and served under two Bushes about why Trump was going to fail. That was months ago and the GOP has been in denial.
++Like me,Rich believes the remnants of the party will come along and back Trump in the end. All the #No Trump, # Draft Condi will go nowhere.
++Rich trashes the conservative commentariat for its fantasies of the Donald's collapse and its assertion that the Donald doesn't represent the beliefs of the sober-minded Republicans. Rich traces all of the Donald's race-baiting, nativist and misogynist talking backwards to the very genial Ronald Reagan and bring this up to date through George H.W.Bush and Mitt Romney.
++Rich starts the article off with a lengthy conversation with a Republican who worked for Romney and served under two Bushes about why Trump was going to fail. That was months ago and the GOP has been in denial.
++Like me,Rich believes the remnants of the party will come along and back Trump in the end. All the #No Trump, # Draft Condi will go nowhere.
Sunday, March 20, 2016
Eagle Mania
++Here in the Washington area,people are going nuts over the Bald Eagles at the National Arboretum. There are two new fledglings hatched in the last week.
++In Pittsburgh, there is a live cam on A Bald Eagle sitting on an egg during torrential rain that often the camera gets blurred.
++Much healthier enterprise than watching Trump political rallies and less dangerous to humans.
++In Pittsburgh, there is a live cam on A Bald Eagle sitting on an egg during torrential rain that often the camera gets blurred.
++Much healthier enterprise than watching Trump political rallies and less dangerous to humans.
Be There or Be Square!
++Residents of the Los Angeles area have the unique opportunity starting April 24th of seeing the first Agnes Martin retrospective since 1994--and the grids,too-- at LACMA.
Confirm Merrick Garland for Mark Rothko!
++The latest scandal du jour is that Merrick Garland is Jewish. You would not know this except if you listened to his remarks at the White House about his grandfather escaping a pogrom in Pale, the hometown of Mark Rothko.
++But that has led Donald Trump's great supporter David Duke and the white supremacist website Stormfront to warn that the Supreme Court may become 46% Jewish. You see Sonya Sotomayor is really Shephardic not Catholic as is claimed. While all the time I thought Jewish judges were just more humane WASPs.
++I applaud Wonkette.com for posting this nonsense in a snarky post about the Donald's supporters.
++I'm not kidding it is a real historical likelihood that Merrick's grandfather knew the Rotkovitch family and even the young Marcus before emigrating to the United States. The chronology fits.
++Win one for Mark Rothko!
++But that has led Donald Trump's great supporter David Duke and the white supremacist website Stormfront to warn that the Supreme Court may become 46% Jewish. You see Sonya Sotomayor is really Shephardic not Catholic as is claimed. While all the time I thought Jewish judges were just more humane WASPs.
++I applaud Wonkette.com for posting this nonsense in a snarky post about the Donald's supporters.
++I'm not kidding it is a real historical likelihood that Merrick's grandfather knew the Rotkovitch family and even the young Marcus before emigrating to the United States. The chronology fits.
++Win one for Mark Rothko!
Josh Marshall Notes
++In "Late and Telling", Josh Marshall at Talkingpointsmemo.com remarks that this week saw a number of intelligent Republicans denounce Trump. For example, George Will, John Podhoretz, David Brooks, and Ross Douthat weigh in against the Donald. But Josh says they would have had more credibility if they had denounced the attempts to smear President Obama as a "dictator" who exceeded his constitutional powers years before.
++Josh earlier explained in "Why #Never Trump Is Doomed,Doomed,Doomed" why these GOP efforts to stop Trump are futile. Numerous columns have been printed this week on the Stop Trump effort and point out that these have to be flawlessly carried out, even though they are forms of guerrilla warfare that can't be flawless by definition.
++The latest such plan is to pour millions of dollars into Wisconsin to prevent Trump winning that primary. The idea is to get to the convention and enter another candidate other than Cruz and Kasich. If that fails conservatives plan to mount a third party drive with a candidate like Perry,Scott Walker or someone similar. Good luck guys.
++Josh earlier explained in "Why #Never Trump Is Doomed,Doomed,Doomed" why these GOP efforts to stop Trump are futile. Numerous columns have been printed this week on the Stop Trump effort and point out that these have to be flawlessly carried out, even though they are forms of guerrilla warfare that can't be flawless by definition.
++The latest such plan is to pour millions of dollars into Wisconsin to prevent Trump winning that primary. The idea is to get to the convention and enter another candidate other than Cruz and Kasich. If that fails conservatives plan to mount a third party drive with a candidate like Perry,Scott Walker or someone similar. Good luck guys.
Saturday, March 19, 2016
Huffingtonpost/YouGov Poll--Is Trump a Fascist?
++50% of Americans believes Trump's campaign has "fascist undertones".
++30% do not.
++45% of independents do.
++28% of Republicans think he's a fascist.
++30% do not.
++45% of independents do.
++28% of Republicans think he's a fascist.
Friday, March 18, 2016
Pat Buchanan Has Trump's Back
++In this morning's Townhall, a rightwing blog site, Pat argues the GOP is facing suicide or renewal. Of course, the renewal is Donald J. Trump. He points to the GOP elites trying to conspire to take him down and that they forget that the crushing defeat of Barry Goldwater only meant the death of the Rockefeller wing of the party.
++In something called the Daily Corinthian,Pat exposes the Sea Island Conspiracy which ostensibly was an AEI-sponsored conference on "Millennials--Who are they and what do they want?"
++Instead Pat writes this was a conclave of Silicon Valley types including Apple and Google with Karl Rove, Paul Ryan and Bill Kristol about how to stop Trump.
++The pale-conservative he is, Pat raises the role of Washington-based NGOs in regime change and questions why destroying our democratic process enhances democracy.
++Politico documents a Palm Beach gathering of billionaire donors meeting with Paul Ryan about how to foster a brokered convention or mount an independent candidate against Trump.
++The panic here in D.C. reached fever pitch with Lindsey Graham, a man who has endorsed JEB!, Marco and now has endorsed and is fund-raising for Ted Cruz. Hated by almost any living Republican,Ted Cruz is hailed as the only one who can beat the Donald. The problem with this little scenario is that Cruz has to win over 80% of the remaining delegates; Donald 52%.
++What is obvious in the last three days is the manner in which the GOP is totally controlled by the very wealthy and now this is so out in the open.
++In something called the Daily Corinthian,Pat exposes the Sea Island Conspiracy which ostensibly was an AEI-sponsored conference on "Millennials--Who are they and what do they want?"
++Instead Pat writes this was a conclave of Silicon Valley types including Apple and Google with Karl Rove, Paul Ryan and Bill Kristol about how to stop Trump.
++The pale-conservative he is, Pat raises the role of Washington-based NGOs in regime change and questions why destroying our democratic process enhances democracy.
++Politico documents a Palm Beach gathering of billionaire donors meeting with Paul Ryan about how to foster a brokered convention or mount an independent candidate against Trump.
++The panic here in D.C. reached fever pitch with Lindsey Graham, a man who has endorsed JEB!, Marco and now has endorsed and is fund-raising for Ted Cruz. Hated by almost any living Republican,Ted Cruz is hailed as the only one who can beat the Donald. The problem with this little scenario is that Cruz has to win over 80% of the remaining delegates; Donald 52%.
++What is obvious in the last three days is the manner in which the GOP is totally controlled by the very wealthy and now this is so out in the open.
Thursday, March 17, 2016
Today's Best Phrase From The New York Times On Mitch McConnell's Reaction to SCOTUS Nomination.
"in a stupendous show of political malfeasance." referring to McConnell's position not to hold hearings and a vote on Marrick Garland.
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
The Economist Ranks The Election Of Donald Trump Among The Top Ten Risks in the World.
++The Economist has never ranked an American election as a risk to global security. They said this was the first. Cruz and Kasich do not rate mentioning. The Economist ranked a Trump victory with the Greek meltdown and the rise of Jihadism and Britain leaving the European union.
The Washington Post Strikes Again.
++The Post has been suitably alarmed by Trump and demands the Republicans denounce him . They are disappointed their candidate, Marco Rubio, didn't go anyway.
++So what is their beef today. Vladimir Putin may have tricked President Obama by withdrawing from Syria. See, it is not the quagmire Obama promised. That will fool 'em.
++So what is their beef today. Vladimir Putin may have tricked President Obama by withdrawing from Syria. See, it is not the quagmire Obama promised. That will fool 'em.
Ed Kilgore Plays The Bummer
++Kilgore writing in New York magazine says Obama's choice of a white male, moderate is a perfect sacrificial lamb. The scenario of a lamb duck appointment to forestall a Hillary nominee is not in the cards. All this does is show how extreme the Republicans are and that should be useful for the general elections.
++Kilgore also puts a damper on the contested convention. He says Trump and Cruz already have enough delegates to block the establishment from riding roughshod over the delegates. He also points to the anti-Ron Paul role that the Trump-Cruz gang can invoke to prevent a dark horse from being nominated from the floor. Kilgore says the establishment has only one option--playing Trump off against Cruz.
++Wonkette posted a blog about Obama's Supreme Court choice. They thought the real question was how much did Merrick hate "buttsex."
++Kilgore also puts a damper on the contested convention. He says Trump and Cruz already have enough delegates to block the establishment from riding roughshod over the delegates. He also points to the anti-Ron Paul role that the Trump-Cruz gang can invoke to prevent a dark horse from being nominated from the floor. Kilgore says the establishment has only one option--playing Trump off against Cruz.
++Wonkette posted a blog about Obama's Supreme Court choice. They thought the real question was how much did Merrick hate "buttsex."
GOP Endorsements.
++Florida's governor Rick Scott endorsed Donald Trump.
++South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley endorsed Ted Cruz after Rubio dropped out.
++Glenn Beck, who supports Ted Cruz, says John Kasich is delusional and should drop out because the Republic is at stake in this election.
++John Kasich did drop out of the March 21st debate in Utah because the Donald refused to participate. FOX has cancelled the debate.
++The GOP establishment really is freaking out about Trump being their nominee. The RIGHT fears they will be left out so they are screaming now.
++South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley endorsed Ted Cruz after Rubio dropped out.
++Glenn Beck, who supports Ted Cruz, says John Kasich is delusional and should drop out because the Republic is at stake in this election.
++John Kasich did drop out of the March 21st debate in Utah because the Donald refused to participate. FOX has cancelled the debate.
++The GOP establishment really is freaking out about Trump being their nominee. The RIGHT fears they will be left out so they are screaming now.
Today in GOP Mayhem
++Paul Ryan said maybe he didn't want the nomination.
++Tomorrow,conservatives meet in D.C. to discuss the possibility of a conservative running as an independent. Bill Kristol says this would say that the GOP made a temporary mistake with Trump and allow the party to get back to normal.
++Business Insider writes that actually Trump has a clear path to the number of delegates to win the nomination because he will be rewarded more than his % of the vote in delegates in the upcoming primaries.
++The Right is going nuts saying the RNC will choose who they want at the convention. This coming was generated because a RNC member said that the media caused the whole problem because the voters don't select the nominee, true party does. Rush Limbaugh fanned this on the Right talk shows.
++In its innocuous meaning it's like saying the American voter doesn't elect the President because they elect electors who then elect the President.
++At its worst, it means the RNC will ignore the choices made in the primaries and select the candidate they want. The donors are actually trying to figure this out.
++Business Insider had a graph showing that Kasich is as dead as Rubio and has no way home. For that manner,Cruz is lightly more alive but not by much.
++President Obama's Supreme Court pick is politics as its simplest--pick the best and most qualified and smoke the opposition out. I wouldn't have selected Marrick Garland but almost everyone would. He is a serious judge who writes meticulous briefs. He really is a moderate and no one really knows how he would decide. Orrin Hatch loves him,he is the cousin of the Republican governor of Iowa, and Grassley used to love him. He has been at the top of the list in Obama's two previous picks.
++Nina Totenberg says that President Obama made a deal with the Senate Republicans that he would nominate a moderate and they can appoint him or her at the lame duck session after the election.
++But this has already confused the GOP because Lindsey Graham says you can't have it both ways. The GOP really doesn't have a leg to stand on. 14 Supreme Court judges has been approved in a President's last year in office.
++The vow not to even meet with Garland has quickly cracked. Mitch McConnell told Garland he wouldn't meet with him or move his nomination to the floor. Grassley says he will meet with him. Collins and Flake said they would m,set with him. Childish really.
++For Garland it's OK because his office is just down the street from the Senate buildings and he doesn't have far to go for his meetings.
++The New Yorker has a nice piece on him by a friend. He writes meticulous briefs and is a conscientious judge. In pre-9/11 days, he would have been approved unanimously. At the age of 62,a major accolade to be nominated--even if you don't make it.
++Tomorrow,conservatives meet in D.C. to discuss the possibility of a conservative running as an independent. Bill Kristol says this would say that the GOP made a temporary mistake with Trump and allow the party to get back to normal.
++Business Insider writes that actually Trump has a clear path to the number of delegates to win the nomination because he will be rewarded more than his % of the vote in delegates in the upcoming primaries.
++The Right is going nuts saying the RNC will choose who they want at the convention. This coming was generated because a RNC member said that the media caused the whole problem because the voters don't select the nominee, true party does. Rush Limbaugh fanned this on the Right talk shows.
++In its innocuous meaning it's like saying the American voter doesn't elect the President because they elect electors who then elect the President.
++At its worst, it means the RNC will ignore the choices made in the primaries and select the candidate they want. The donors are actually trying to figure this out.
++Business Insider had a graph showing that Kasich is as dead as Rubio and has no way home. For that manner,Cruz is lightly more alive but not by much.
++President Obama's Supreme Court pick is politics as its simplest--pick the best and most qualified and smoke the opposition out. I wouldn't have selected Marrick Garland but almost everyone would. He is a serious judge who writes meticulous briefs. He really is a moderate and no one really knows how he would decide. Orrin Hatch loves him,he is the cousin of the Republican governor of Iowa, and Grassley used to love him. He has been at the top of the list in Obama's two previous picks.
++Nina Totenberg says that President Obama made a deal with the Senate Republicans that he would nominate a moderate and they can appoint him or her at the lame duck session after the election.
++But this has already confused the GOP because Lindsey Graham says you can't have it both ways. The GOP really doesn't have a leg to stand on. 14 Supreme Court judges has been approved in a President's last year in office.
++The vow not to even meet with Garland has quickly cracked. Mitch McConnell told Garland he wouldn't meet with him or move his nomination to the floor. Grassley says he will meet with him. Collins and Flake said they would m,set with him. Childish really.
++For Garland it's OK because his office is just down the street from the Senate buildings and he doesn't have far to go for his meetings.
++The New Yorker has a nice piece on him by a friend. He writes meticulous briefs and is a conscientious judge. In pre-9/11 days, he would have been approved unanimously. At the age of 62,a major accolade to be nominated--even if you don't make it.
This Morning's Delegate Count.
++From Realclearpolitics.com:
Trump 661
Cruz 406
++Clinton 1,599.
Sanders 844.
Trump 661
Cruz 406
++Clinton 1,599.
Sanders 844.
John Boehner Nominates Paul Ryan For President.
++Hillary Clinton's sweep last night put her 300 delegates ahed of Bernie Sanders with over half the delegates for the nomination selected. This is the largest lead President Obama had over Clinton in 2008. It's now looking mathematically impossible for Sanders to win.
++On the Republican side,Donald Trump promises riots if he doesn't get the nomination. The GOP establishment basically is saying to its base you have made a wrong choice now we will choose at the convention.
++It's too early to see whether Paul Ryan's agreeing to be drafted will fly. He can't even pass a budget in the House because the Freedom Caucus ignores him. How is he even going to control the convention?
++It shows you how desperate things have gotten when John Boehner, who is a friend of Kasich,endorses Ryan just after Kasich won the Ohio primary.
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
TRUMP STILL LEADS IN MISSOURI AND CLINTON HAS TAKEN THE LEAD.
++Nate Silver just doesn't think Ted Cruz can get more votes out of the territory left in Missouri to upset TRUMP. That would leave Trump four out of 5 tonight.
++If Clinton actually catches up with Sanders ,It is so,so tight and observers believe the counts are coming from Hillaryland, she would end with a clean sweep for tonight.
++So we are almost done to TRUMP VS. CLINTON.
++If Clinton actually catches up with Sanders ,It is so,so tight and observers believe the counts are coming from Hillaryland, she would end with a clean sweep for tonight.
++So we are almost done to TRUMP VS. CLINTON.
It Must Be Something They Are Smoking.
++Ted Cruz said tonight he showed he was the only one who could defeat Trump. As of this moment, he is still trailing in Missouri and has not won anything else. He said he won in Maine to Alaska--well, ok and Guam too. But Trump won 67% of the GOP's delegates tonight with only 40% of the vote--such is winner-take-all states.
++Paul Ryan said tonight he would consider accepting the nomination at the convention since he will be chairing it. Say what?
++With Kasich saying he would have the most delegates and Cruz saying he is the only one who can defeat Trump, the GOP has officially lost it.
++Paul Ryan said tonight he would consider accepting the nomination at the convention since he will be chairing it. Say what?
++With Kasich saying he would have the most delegates and Cruz saying he is the only one who can defeat Trump, the GOP has officially lost it.
John Kasich Drinking The Kool-Aid
++ Only a few minutes ago, John Kasich,after winning OHIO, was fourth in delegates after Trump. He told his victory crowd that "It is likely he will go to the convention with the most delegates." When he said that,Trump had over 600 delegates and Kasich had 163. Tell me where he picks up the difference.
Primary UPDATE
++All this jabber about the GOP going to the convention where it will be decided is media hype. The Donald is leading in Missouri. If he wins, he will have won four out of five for the night polls the Mariana Islands and will still be on track to pick up the necessary delegates.
++John Kasich was the only GOP governor to win his state. He has won--count them--one state. And now he is the Great White Hope?
++Sam Wang is looking prescient when he wrote that winning Florida and losing Ohio may have been Trump's lucky throw to keep him on track.
++Illinois' late votes should come from Cook County and if Hillary stays the course--she looks like a straight five state run. Remember when President Obama ran off 10 straight wins in 2008?
++Tomorrow will be running through the brokered convention scenarios for the Republicans. Kasich vows to stay in until the end.
++The story out of Illinois and Missouri tonight will be the delegate counts for the Republicans. Will the Donald will be two ahead of the pace or a few behind?
++Hillary will have an insurmountable lead. The Donald will be almost half way home. Conservative candidates are meeting to figure out an independent way to run against him. Good luck!
++John Kasich was the only GOP governor to win his state. He has won--count them--one state. And now he is the Great White Hope?
++Sam Wang is looking prescient when he wrote that winning Florida and losing Ohio may have been Trump's lucky throw to keep him on track.
++Illinois' late votes should come from Cook County and if Hillary stays the course--she looks like a straight five state run. Remember when President Obama ran off 10 straight wins in 2008?
++Tomorrow will be running through the brokered convention scenarios for the Republicans. Kasich vows to stay in until the end.
++The story out of Illinois and Missouri tonight will be the delegate counts for the Republicans. Will the Donald will be two ahead of the pace or a few behind?
++Hillary will have an insurmountable lead. The Donald will be almost half way home. Conservative candidates are meeting to figure out an independent way to run against him. Good luck!
DON'T KID YOURSELVES--TRUMP IS LEADING IN NORTH CAROLINA,ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI.
++CLINTON IS LEADING IN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. As Nate Silver admits, Hillary has had a big night.
NBC/SurveyMonkey (National)
++Clinton 52%, Sanders 41%
++Trump 44%, Cruz 22%, Kasich 12%, Rubio 11%.
++Trump 44%, Cruz 22%, Kasich 12%, Rubio 11%.
Chicago Tribune Poll of Republicans. Illinois.
++Trump 32%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 21%
Kasich 18%
Undecided 7%
Cruz 22%
Rubio 21%
Kasich 18%
Undecided 7%
Monday, March 14, 2016
Chris Wiegant's Predictions.
++Wiegant already admits that Michigan shock him up so he may be overcompensating for Sanders.
++Florida--Trump, Clinton. Rubio to either quit tomorrow night or Wednesday.
++North Carolina: Trump, Clinton.
++Illinois. Wiegant believes Hillary's support of Rahm Emmanuel comes back to haunt her with both the teachers and African Americans. Illinois goes to Sanders. Trump slides by Cruz.
++Missouri which doesn't poll often, Wiegant believes Cruz because he won neighboring states and Sanders.
++Ohio. He says Kasich and believes Hillary's "lies" about Bernie on the auto bailout will hurt her. He goes with Sanders.
++The story of the night--Rubio gone and Hillary can't win "blue states".
++Florida--Trump, Clinton. Rubio to either quit tomorrow night or Wednesday.
++North Carolina: Trump, Clinton.
++Illinois. Wiegant believes Hillary's support of Rahm Emmanuel comes back to haunt her with both the teachers and African Americans. Illinois goes to Sanders. Trump slides by Cruz.
++Missouri which doesn't poll often, Wiegant believes Cruz because he won neighboring states and Sanders.
++Ohio. He says Kasich and believes Hillary's "lies" about Bernie on the auto bailout will hurt her. He goes with Sanders.
++The story of the night--Rubio gone and Hillary can't win "blue states".
My Monday Predictions. I Could Always Change.
++Florida. Trump. Clinton.
++North Carolina. Trump. Clinton.
++Northern Marianas Islands. Trump.
++Illinois. Trump. Clinton.
++Ohio. Kasich (by a slim margin over Trump), Clinton.
++Missouri: Trump. 538 says Cruz. Missouri is too racist so I lean Trump. Tossup with Clinton/Sanders.
++If Kasich wins, 538 says that Trump can't get to the number of delegates he needs. Sam Wang says that a Kasich win actually benefits Trump and that a Florida loss would actually prevent him from getting to the number he needs.
++For Democrats,I think Bernie will either win or just loose barely in Missouri. My in-laws say Illinois is an absolute political mess on both sides of the aisle. Sanders has been making his move but I don't think he'll make it.
++Both Clinton and Trump should be strengthened by the night. If Donald J. Trump edges out Kasich in Ohio, then it's game,set,match.
++Marco Rubio has filed a court case against Kasich in Pennsylvania to keep him off the ballot.
++Tomorrow's big news is that Rubio is officially dead.
++North Carolina. Trump. Clinton.
++Northern Marianas Islands. Trump.
++Illinois. Trump. Clinton.
++Ohio. Kasich (by a slim margin over Trump), Clinton.
++Missouri: Trump. 538 says Cruz. Missouri is too racist so I lean Trump. Tossup with Clinton/Sanders.
++If Kasich wins, 538 says that Trump can't get to the number of delegates he needs. Sam Wang says that a Kasich win actually benefits Trump and that a Florida loss would actually prevent him from getting to the number he needs.
++For Democrats,I think Bernie will either win or just loose barely in Missouri. My in-laws say Illinois is an absolute political mess on both sides of the aisle. Sanders has been making his move but I don't think he'll make it.
++Both Clinton and Trump should be strengthened by the night. If Donald J. Trump edges out Kasich in Ohio, then it's game,set,match.
++Marco Rubio has filed a court case against Kasich in Pennsylvania to keep him off the ballot.
++Tomorrow's big news is that Rubio is officially dead.
PPP Polls in Missouri,Ohio and Illinois--Too Close To Call.
++Ohio: Clinton 46% to Sanders 41%.
++Illinois: Clinton 48% to Sanders 45%.
++Missouri: Clinton 47% to Sanders 46%.
++Illinois: Clinton 48% to Sanders 45%.
++Missouri: Clinton 47% to Sanders 46%.
Sunday, March 13, 2016
Florida Goes To 98% polls only,90% polls Plus For Trump
++The Result is that the Donald is sticking around Youngstown,Ohio to see whether he can deliver a knockout blow on Tuesday. He is behind Kasich by about .5% in the latest polling. He is attacking Kasich on NAFTA,being an absentee governor and responsible for Ohio losing jobs abroad. With winner-takes all in booth Ohio and Florida,winning Ohio would just about wrap up the Republican nomination.
Says It's Not So, Jennifer. Break Up The Party.
++My favorite whipping girl at the Washington Post, Jennifer Rubin, who has been the shill for Romney and then Rubio, packs it in.
++She felt the Rinse Priebus entrance at the last debate the very low point of the campaign because he did not condemn the behavior of Donald Trump and merely promised that the GOP would support whoever got the nomination.
++She calls for the creation of a new center-right party to pick top the pieces of the braindead Republican Party. She wants her party to be inclusive,brainy,optimistic and future oriented.
++She said the third party would not necessarily siphon votes away from Hillary Clinton--curious her concern but would aid down ballot Republicans so they can distance themselves away from a very dangerous man.
++I guess the establishment resistance to Donald J. Trump is very real and visceral.
++She felt the Rinse Priebus entrance at the last debate the very low point of the campaign because he did not condemn the behavior of Donald Trump and merely promised that the GOP would support whoever got the nomination.
++She calls for the creation of a new center-right party to pick top the pieces of the braindead Republican Party. She wants her party to be inclusive,brainy,optimistic and future oriented.
++She said the third party would not necessarily siphon votes away from Hillary Clinton--curious her concern but would aid down ballot Republicans so they can distance themselves away from a very dangerous man.
++I guess the establishment resistance to Donald J. Trump is very real and visceral.
Let It Burn
++Josh Marshall writes another perceptive post on The Donald and his politics of resentment. Today he muses about the Donald trying to be subdued at the debate and racketing down his rhetoric to become acceptable to the GOP establishment. But Marshall concludes that the events of the last few days show the man can't even control his own impulses and personal resentments.
"Every American Remembers Where He Was When Herbert Hoover Died." Gore Vidal.
++Roger Stone says all the violence in the Trump rallies is caused by Clinton Operatives.
++The Donald threatens to send people to disrupt Bernie's Rallies.
++The rightwing blogs blame George Soros for the violence and… Mitt Romney.
++Marco Rubio can't figure out whether he should blame Trump or Barack Obama. Ted Cruz has it both ways.
++Ross Douthat has a column in today's New York Times calling for Republicans to take down Trump at the Cleveland Convention.
++I guess Republicans are beginning to understand what a problem Donald J. Trump is when Max Boot in Commentary writes that "Donald Trump is the biggest security threat to the United States. Not ISIS, not the Chinese. Jacob Heilrunn covers the neoconservative reaction to the Donald. Now they want to save American democracy.
CATO's Doug Bandow says not so fast. Donald is noxious like the David Duke endorsement but watch out for Marco Rubio.
Bandow documents how many wars Rubio wants to create. He wants to shoot Russian jets down over Syria and wants the Ukraine to become a member of NATO, also Moldova.
++Marco Rubio said the people should got for Kasich. Kasich said no thanks I'll win on my own,which is more than Marco will do in Florida.
++SNL had a skit on last night where Ben Carson gets attacked at a Donald Trump rally. "NO, he's the good one.",the Donald says.
++The New York Times has a front-page piece on the pride the African-American community has in Barack Obama and their impending despair when he's gone. I share their grief. You won't see the likes of him again.
++Meanwhile President Obama wants to know how the Donald's wines taste. The roadrunner keeps on.
++The Trumpeteer who said, "Seig Heil" at the Trump rally in Illinois says he'
s not a Nazi. I guess the same goes for the Trump supporter at the same rally who screamed " Go back to Auschwitz."
++The Donald is urging his supporters to get protestors arrested so it will "ruin their lives." He has invoked the good old days when protestors were routinely beat up.
++I guess the Trump people poll tested "hippie-punching" and found that it will improve his standing like in the case of Roger Stone's mentor Richard Nixon.
++An Israeli poll shows the Israeli public wants Hillary Clinton to become President.
++The Donald threatens to send people to disrupt Bernie's Rallies.
++The rightwing blogs blame George Soros for the violence and… Mitt Romney.
++Marco Rubio can't figure out whether he should blame Trump or Barack Obama. Ted Cruz has it both ways.
++Ross Douthat has a column in today's New York Times calling for Republicans to take down Trump at the Cleveland Convention.
++I guess Republicans are beginning to understand what a problem Donald J. Trump is when Max Boot in Commentary writes that "Donald Trump is the biggest security threat to the United States. Not ISIS, not the Chinese. Jacob Heilrunn covers the neoconservative reaction to the Donald. Now they want to save American democracy.
CATO's Doug Bandow says not so fast. Donald is noxious like the David Duke endorsement but watch out for Marco Rubio.
Bandow documents how many wars Rubio wants to create. He wants to shoot Russian jets down over Syria and wants the Ukraine to become a member of NATO, also Moldova.
++Marco Rubio said the people should got for Kasich. Kasich said no thanks I'll win on my own,which is more than Marco will do in Florida.
++SNL had a skit on last night where Ben Carson gets attacked at a Donald Trump rally. "NO, he's the good one.",the Donald says.
++The New York Times has a front-page piece on the pride the African-American community has in Barack Obama and their impending despair when he's gone. I share their grief. You won't see the likes of him again.
++Meanwhile President Obama wants to know how the Donald's wines taste. The roadrunner keeps on.
++The Trumpeteer who said, "Seig Heil" at the Trump rally in Illinois says he'
s not a Nazi. I guess the same goes for the Trump supporter at the same rally who screamed " Go back to Auschwitz."
++The Donald is urging his supporters to get protestors arrested so it will "ruin their lives." He has invoked the good old days when protestors were routinely beat up.
++I guess the Trump people poll tested "hippie-punching" and found that it will improve his standing like in the case of Roger Stone's mentor Richard Nixon.
++An Israeli poll shows the Israeli public wants Hillary Clinton to become President.
CBS Tracker/You Gov Polls For Illinois, Ohio,Florida
Illinois: Sanders 48% ,Clinton 46%.
Ohio: Clinton 52%, Sanders 43%.
Florida: Clinton 62%, Sanders 34%
Ohio: Clinton 52%, Sanders 43%.
Florida: Clinton 62%, Sanders 34%
NBC/Marist Polls For Florida,Ohio and Illinois
++Florida:
Trump 43%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 21%
Kasich 9%
++Ohio:
Kasich 39%
Trump 33%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 6%
++Illinois:
Trump 34%
Cruz 25%
Kasich 21%
Rubio 16%
Democrats:
++Florida: Clinton 61%, Sanders 34%
++Ohio: Clinton 58%, Sanders 38%.
++Illinois: Clinton 51%, Sanders 45%.
Trump 43%
Rubio 22%
Cruz 21%
Kasich 9%
++Ohio:
Kasich 39%
Trump 33%
Cruz 19%
Rubio 6%
++Illinois:
Trump 34%
Cruz 25%
Kasich 21%
Rubio 16%
Democrats:
++Florida: Clinton 61%, Sanders 34%
++Ohio: Clinton 58%, Sanders 38%.
++Illinois: Clinton 51%, Sanders 45%.
Saturday, March 12, 2016
Someone Will Die.
++Josh Marshall has posted a column about the violence at the Trump rallies and reproduces a letter of apology by the veteran who knocked down a black women--it was to his veterans group not the women. Marshall fears that these mob scenes normalize uninhibited behavior which will escalate as more of these episodes happen. The man charging Trump surrounding by Secret Service was unhinged and he knowingly took his life in his own hands. Expect more.
The World According To Trump
++At Huffington Post,the most pro-American French philosopher tries his hand at comprehending the Trump phenomenon, Bernard Henri-Levy sees the globalization of the world of corruption that is mirrored in Berlusconi,the Le Pens, and the Putins of the world. It is a sad look at an America trying to wall itself off and thus plunging itself into poverty and not elevating its boundless capacity of assimilating the world's castoffs.
Rubio and Kasich Say It's Harder Every Day To Support Trump.
++John Kasich cited for his concern the "toxic environment" of Trump rallies. Rubio cited the violent rhetoric.
++Kasich was supported in Ohio by the Committee of the Formers, Republican who had held office at the congressional and state level.
++What I had missed in the Republican debate was when Reince Preibus appeared to address the national audience assuring them that all candidates would support the eventual nominee. When have you ever seen that.
++VOX has an article about the fall of the neoconservatives and how they have reacted to the Donald. They are disturbed he has punched all their high holy sites--the Iraq War,Bush protecting us against terrorism, and ground troops in the Middle East.
++Kasich was supported in Ohio by the Committee of the Formers, Republican who had held office at the congressional and state level.
++What I had missed in the Republican debate was when Reince Preibus appeared to address the national audience assuring them that all candidates would support the eventual nominee. When have you ever seen that.
++VOX has an article about the fall of the neoconservatives and how they have reacted to the Donald. They are disturbed he has punched all their high holy sites--the Iraq War,Bush protecting us against terrorism, and ground troops in the Middle East.
TRUMP Documentary "Fire Breather" ON CTV.
++The Canadian television series "The Fifth Estate" produced "Fire Breather" that is uopt to date on the Donald,including Mitt Romney's attack.
++It is posted on www.democratic underground.com now is well-worth watching.
++ it features Wayne Barrett, the investigative reporter, Matt Taibbi, Tom Brokaw, and Republican strategists.
++It examines the very real possibility that Trump could be President.
++It is posted on www.democratic underground.com now is well-worth watching.
++ it features Wayne Barrett, the investigative reporter, Matt Taibbi, Tom Brokaw, and Republican strategists.
++It examines the very real possibility that Trump could be President.
President Obama Shows How It Is Done--Honoring Nancy Reagan.
++President Obama in his weekly address shows how to honor Mrs. Reagan after Hillary disastrous statements on Mrs. Reagan and AIDS. President Obama used the occasion to salute her call for stem cell research ,which the Republicans opposed,mammograms for women, and her activism on Alzheimers. On the latter,President Obama mentioned his own administration's initiatives on alzheimer's and the Brain initiative,something which is almost never mentioned.
++In Austin, President Obama again discussed the meltdown of the GOP and saying as long as attacks were against him,it was OK but now they are loving with the consequences of a decade of ignoring scientific facts and commonsense policies.
++David Atkins in this morning's Washington Monthly has a column on Trump as the symptom of the GOP's descent.
Friday, March 11, 2016
President Obama Is Responsible For The Violence At Trump Rallies--Pass it On.
++So says Rafael Cruz and Magyn Kelly. He polarized us. I'm really polarized by President Obama's statements. Oh my.
Nate Silver Predicts OHIO.
++ I checked the recent Ohio polls and Hillary is comfortably ahead,although not as much as in Florida.
++Nate Silver has her at 96% Polls Only, 98% Polls Plus.
++Sanders is at 4% polls only and 2% polls plus.
++Sanders may come out of Tuesday with just Missouri if he's lucky.
++Nate Silver has her at 96% Polls Only, 98% Polls Plus.
++Sanders is at 4% polls only and 2% polls plus.
++Sanders may come out of Tuesday with just Missouri if he's lucky.
Hillary On A Roll
++Despite her awesomely bad statement that Nancy Reagan raised awareness of AIDS, Hillary stands to crush the Bernie bots on Tuesday.
++Not all polls can make Michigan errors.
++Florida Ledger/10 News Poll. Clinton 68%, Sanders 23%.
++Illinois (We Ask America) Clinton 62.3%,Sanders 25%.
++ Missouri (Be Ware) Fort Hays State University. Clinton 47%,Sanders 40% and 13 percent Undecided.
++North Carolina. High Point. Clinton 58%, Sanders 34%.
I give Bernie a shot at Missouri. Unclear whether he can pull an upset in Ohio.
++Not all polls can make Michigan errors.
++Florida Ledger/10 News Poll. Clinton 68%, Sanders 23%.
++Illinois (We Ask America) Clinton 62.3%,Sanders 25%.
++ Missouri (Be Ware) Fort Hays State University. Clinton 47%,Sanders 40% and 13 percent Undecided.
++North Carolina. High Point. Clinton 58%, Sanders 34%.
I give Bernie a shot at Missouri. Unclear whether he can pull an upset in Ohio.
The Stop Trump Strategy
++Before the Miami debate, JEB! met with all the contenders to discuss a strategy to stop the Donald. Eric Erickson of Red State exposed the strategy and Marco Rubio today made it explicit. If you are a non-Trump supporter vote Rubio in Florida, in Ohio, vote for Kasich in Ohio, vote for Cruz anywhere else.
++Nate Silver warns that the GOP has to pay attention to Missouri and Illinois because even if the Donald loses in Florida or Ohio,wins in Illinois and Missouri will still keep him on the path to the nomination.
++North Carolina where Trump is leading is sort of proportional so not as valuable as the other states.
++That strategy assumes alot of the voter--to vote strategically instead of your favorite. It also assumes that the candidates can get the word out in time and that voters will obey them.
++Missouri polling for both the Democrats and Republicans has only just resumed after a break. So we don't know. We know Trump has a lead.
++Illinois has a huge Trump lead.
++From what we know now,Trump wins North Carolina,Illinois,Florida, comes in second in Ohio. The strategy was too little, too late.
++Nate Silver warns that the GOP has to pay attention to Missouri and Illinois because even if the Donald loses in Florida or Ohio,wins in Illinois and Missouri will still keep him on the path to the nomination.
++North Carolina where Trump is leading is sort of proportional so not as valuable as the other states.
++That strategy assumes alot of the voter--to vote strategically instead of your favorite. It also assumes that the candidates can get the word out in time and that voters will obey them.
++Missouri polling for both the Democrats and Republicans has only just resumed after a break. So we don't know. We know Trump has a lead.
++Illinois has a huge Trump lead.
++From what we know now,Trump wins North Carolina,Illinois,Florida, comes in second in Ohio. The strategy was too little, too late.
High Point University/Suffolk University Poll of North Carolina
++'Lil Marco begins the big fade.
++Trump 48%
Cruz 28%
Kasich 12%
RUBIO 9%.
++Trump 48%
Cruz 28%
Kasich 12%
RUBIO 9%.
Nate Silver on Illinois
++This morning Roy Mook,Hillary Clinton's campaign manager, warned that Clinton was being outspent by Sanders in the Mid-West states and rued she could lose all of them.
++This morning's Illinois poll shows Clinton with a 60 some-thrity some lead.
++Here's Nate Silver's prediction:
Clinton > 99%
Sanders <1 font="">
++Not every situation is like Michigan but we will see.
++Meanwhile it's Trump 88%
Cruz 13%
Kasich 11%.
++Marco Rubio did a Romney and this morning asked Ohio voters to vote Kasich to stop Trump. This is probably a good bet.
++The Donald said the GOP has had enough debates. I agree.
++This morning's Illinois poll shows Clinton with a 60 some-thrity some lead.
++Here's Nate Silver's prediction:
Clinton > 99%
Sanders <1 font="">
++Not every situation is like Michigan but we will see.
++Meanwhile it's Trump 88%
Cruz 13%
Kasich 11%.
++Marco Rubio did a Romney and this morning asked Ohio voters to vote Kasich to stop Trump. This is probably a good bet.
++The Donald said the GOP has had enough debates. I agree.
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