Friday, May 6, 2016

Six Months Out From The Election--Let's Look At The Electoral Vote Math.

++According to the New York Times, it is 347 Clinton, 191 Trump.

++Blogger SemDem at the Daily Kos has Clinton at 381 electoral votes. 

++He says that polling indicates that Utah, Arizona,and Mississippi have now become battleground states. Arizona  is not even close. In Florida Trump is behind in the Hispanic vote 69% to 18%. 

++Clinton is winning Georgia which I still believe Obama should have made a play for. 

++There has been no polls lately in Kentucky,Arkansas, and Texas. 

++SemDem has the Democrats taking Florida,Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania,California,New York and Missippi. The Democrats take all of the Northeast. New Mexico, Colorado,Nevada, Oregon and Washington.

++Charlie Cook is more sober. He has 190 electoral votes solidly Democratic,27 likely Democratic, and 87 votes leaning Democratic. He has moved 11 states in the Democratic direction. Colorado,Florida,Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin have been moved fromn toss-ups to leaning Democratic.  New Mexico has moved from likely Democratic to Solid Democratic. North Carolina has moved from likely Republican to toss-up.  Arizona, Georgia, Indiana less likely Republican but GOP is still dominant. 

++Cook said his changes were due to the Trump candidacy. He feels Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would have lost to any other Republican. I disagree. 

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