You may have noticed Nate Silver upping dramatically the odds that Trump may win. He says of course Clinton has a significant lead but that it is shaky.
Ryan Grim writes " Nate Silver's Unskewing Polls--All Of Them, In Trump's Direction" that Nate is actually applying new medication to all the polls he receives. It seems to me a peculiar way to introduce corrections to your methodology, especially at this late date.
Grim points out that Nate has Trump winning Florida when the initial early voting shows a massive democratic surge, which should call polls favoring Trump in doubt. Grim has a good point that one campaign has a get out the vote campaign and another simply doesn't and that should temper the tendency to go the other way.
Nate this morning laid out all the Survey Monkey polls from all the states to show he was not cherry-picking the polls. I didn't reproduce them all but there was nothing particular alarming about any of them.
But Grim's read is important for all of us who use aggregators. He points to UPSHOT having the same 3% lead but Nate concludes this is a danger to Clinton. Maybe? But it seems strange to change directions now.
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