Showing posts with label 538. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 538. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

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++A detailed analysis of the debate can be found at 538. They want to make the point that for many this was the first debate the audience--Hispanic- has seen in Spanish. The viewership of Univision dwarfs Fox. They also felt that Sanders refusal to denounce or at least distance himself from Castro hurts in Florida, where younger Cubans want normalization but the hatred of Castro is enormous. The panel thought that Sanders knew he had to up his game and that both candidates now find each other enjoying. Harry Etten's concern is about 538's predictions on OHIO, which they predict heavily for Hillary, but also the other states on Tuesday they have Hillary sweeping. David Axelrod tweeted that Hillary still hasn't gotten the TARP bailout right.

++Josh Marshall found the moderators terrible and neither candidate really tanking. He thought he probably didn't change the needle. 

++538 wondered why Sanders didn't bring up trade agreements again because they served him well in Michigan and would do the same in Ohio.

++Time magazine had 90% saying Sanders won, 10% Hillary.

++The Dailykos did a fine job of recording the debate. The comments were heavily pro-Sanders but I think they missed the point. They claimed that most Americans backed Sanders non-interventionist views . They also felt that issues like Daniel Ortega and Fidel Castro belong in the dungheap of history and that young people don't care. I think in Florida they do care. 

++The 3rd most important issue for women tonight on Facebook was abortion. Hillary Clinton said she would appoint judges who believed that Roe v. Wade was settled law. That was all either candidates said.

++538 mentioned that Hispanic unemployment was slightly higher than white at 5.3% but that gap has been tightening in recent months.

++538 also had a go-around about migrant labor and whether Sanders didn't go too far in saying it was like slavery. 

++Josh Marshall wanted to remind you that while the Democrats debated, Marco Rubio spoke to an almost empty stadium.

++Kos himself set a rule that Democrats can't criticize the candidates after March 15th when presumably a candidate is known.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Allan Lichtman Laughs

++Ipsos projects Obama 332 EV--Romney 206EV.

++Sam Wang yawns: Obama 290--Romney 248.

++Election Analytics: Obama 293.2--Romney 244.8.

++Nate Silver mumbles: Obama 290.8--Romney 247.2.

++Nickelodeon poll of kids--Obama 65 to Romney 35.

++Charles Cook--Obama 253--Romney 248. Obama has a 88% chance of winning.

++Gallup Approval Rating: 51%.

++David Gergen didn't get the memo: Obama won the debate and has the momentum and his ground game is vastly superior to Romney's, which operatives complain is like a civics class.