Unemployment under Presidents

During the last election,Allan Lichtman said that if a President' unemployment was less than when he came in he'd be re-elected. That's what happened.

I decided to look at where the Presidents left office. I forgot JFK,Ford and Carter,and George H.W. Bush but here are the results.

Truman--2.9% * wonder whether minorities were counted.
Eisenhower--6.6%.
LBJ--3.4% * again I wonder about minorities.
Nixon--5.5%
Reagan--5.4%
Clinton--4.2%
George W. Bush--7.8%
Barack Obama--6.1% and counting

In High School, an old economics professor told me that an economy working at the highest efficiency could only sustain 5% unemployment--otherwise unemployment would have to increase. That is why the figures of Truman and LBJ are so stunning and why I keep saying that President Obama will erode the unemployment rate to about 5.4% or less before he leaves office.

In the last labor report, the April figure was re-adjusted to 300,000 and I expect the same will happen for the June figures when the July numbers come out. Psychologically, it would be good for President Obama if the numbers drop below 6% before the election. So far,he has not been responsible for any economic downturn unlike Reagan,Nixon and George W. Bush.

Allan Lichtman Says Stop Worrying

++Interviewed with three days left on Australian television,Allan Lichtman says forget about the polls, Obama wins. Having correctly predicted each winner since 1984, he discounted the economy as the major factor but re-iterated his 12 keys to the White House. Since President Obama has both international and domestic achievements and no major scandal,he will win. This was said after the moderator had recalled the recent close polls in the United States.

++University of Illinois projects 302.6 EV for President Obama and 235.4 for Romney. UIlli says that Obama has 281 safe electoral votes and that the probability of his winning re-election is now .996% and his chance of getting to 300EV is 58%. There is 0% chance of a tie.

++ Stanford University projects that President Obama has a 87.34% chance of re-election with the electoral votes ranging from 300 to 346.