Riddle Me This, Batman

++Bernie Sanders has a higher percentage in polls than all the Republican candidates. Higher than the first four who get constant media coverage. So why doesn't he merit at least the same coverage? 

++Bernie has appeared in the last few days in New Hampshire, Minnesota and Iowa. His appearance in Iowa got rave reviews with Democratic activists.Party leaders say he will be a force in the caucus.

++Meanwhile the networks are debating whom to invite to the Republican debates. Fox is toying with making sure Carly Fiorina and Ben Carson are on even though Fiorina doesn't register in the polls. The idea is to say the GOP is diverse.

++While I read complaints about Hillary Clinton on the democratic websites about her not talking to the press and the Clinton Foundation donations,few have mentioned her fifty state strategy and that she has 250,000 volunteers signed up in Texas.

++The Clinton operation ,according to the New Yorker,believes it has weathered the early storms well from the e-mails to the Clinton donations and just sees blue skies.

++Martin O'Malley is speaking now but prior to his announcement he called Hillary. The question is whether Sanders,O'Malley, and Chafee can raise enough money to run effective campaigns. 

++The new hybrid situation of Super Pacs and grassroots contributions muddy the waters. 

++This is particularly true of Rand Paul, who suddenly has reverted to his libertarian roots to try and block the Patriot Act, which is due to expire tomorrow. Ed Kilgore in the Washington Monthly examined the fact that Rand has a money problem and needed to revert to his father's network for moolah because he didn't win a billionaire. 

Odds and Ends

++Pamela Geller says she is Rosa Parks.

++Bernie Sanders appeared on Rachel Maddow and said he has 175,000 volunteers for his campaign. He did raise more than Rand Paul. Ted Cruz,and Marco Rubio is the first 24hours.

++Larry Flynt had one of the most important endorsements. He backed Hillary Clinton. His point is simple--The next President has the opportunity to appoint a Supreme Court that could reverse the right-leaning tendency of the Court since the 1960s.

++Hillary Clinton plans to celebrate Cinco de Mayo at Ranchero High School in Las Vegas where the student body is 70% Hispanic. Her preliminary remarks indicate she will support a pathway to citizenship. Expect a GOP explosion in response.

++Willard Romney attacked Hillary Clinton's Dinkins' Lecture saying she politicized Baltimore. Seems she wrote a detailed policy paper rather quickly to do that. Willard objected to her phrase "Mass inceration". We are number 1! in the world in imprisoning citizens.

++Kudos to Hillary's response team on their quick slap down of ClintonCash, the book. So far they have contained any real damage.

++It may have dinged her approval rating in the latest NBC/WSJ poll where she is at 42-42. But all Republicans are in the negative ratings.

++The NBC/WSJ poll shows that Hillary still is beating every GOP competitor. She beats Jeb 49 to 43,Rubio 49 to 43,Walker 50 to 40. Rand Paul comes closest 47 to 43.

Bernie Announces in Vermont--a Ben&Jerry's Flavor To Follow

++Charles Pierce at Esquire writes that Bernie Sanders is the Last Bull Moose,invoking Theodore Roosevelt's progressive campaign where he lost to Taft. Pierce's point is that Bernie may not be Eugene V. Debs but he is sounding the same notes as TR in breaking up the banks and tackling income inequality.

++In his campaign announcement, he said after his first day haul of $1.5 million, that he sees he can run a competitive campaign for the Democratic nomination. Saying he can't out raise his opponents, but with $40 million he expects to raise he can compete with them.

++The Washington Post called him an aging hippie. Now what did the hippies get wrong? The hippie tag was put on Sanders when he moved from Brooklyn to Vermont and started in politics there.

++As one democratic blogger noted, Sanders seems to get good coverage from respectable writers. That's a plus. 

++Other Democrats note that Sanders for all his Democratic Socialism sure sounds like an old-time democrat to them. 

++Next Sanders will be in New Hampshire where he will speak to the AFL-CIO. His primary financial support has come from unions. 

++Not as electrifying as Jerry Brown, but should provide some ballast to the race. However,Sanders begged the press to cover real issues this campaign so naturally they talked about his hair. 

So What If Bernie Sanders Doesn't Stand A Chance?

++The past week may have seen the most extensive media coverage of Bernie coverage in the whole campaign. Since we are about a year away from seeing anything significant happen for the 2016 elections,why can't a veteran politician run on issues?

++Already the press is complaining that Bernie is only complaining about Republican mega donors and not taking aim at Hillary Clinton. At least Bernie has kept tightly to his message.

++Bill McKibben, also a Vermonter, writes how the whole planet is thankful Bernie is running. It happens to be true that Sanders consistently has raised the issue of climate change and proposed legislation for its amelioration. It's not like he is Johnny-Come Lately to the issue. 

++If John McCain could run on the "Straight Talk Express", Bernie actually can. There are no great flip-flops or  evasions on the issues for him.

++What we guarantee media coverage for him is his role on the Democratic side of the budget process in the Senate side.

++If Bernie can rise the issues, then good luck.

HRC at Columbia, Bernie Sanders in,Mike Huckabee at Hispanic Christian Conference

++Hillary Clinton talked to the 18th Annual Dinkins Forum on Public Policy at Columbia and delivered her first policy speech on the campaign. With the backdrop of Baltimore,Mrs. Clinton focused on the issue of race and law enforcement in the country.

++She tied her past work at the Arkansas School of Law to efforts to reform our justice system and free prisoners who have not committed violent crimes. You would not expect it with Baltimore and Ferguson but our crime rate is the lowest in twenty years.

++Hillary Clinton pointed to the growing bipartisan consensus on penal reform in the Senate. But she also focused on policing communities and getting the police to deal with community issues.

++She then brought up an issue that has been sorely neglected even with the healthcare debate--that is mental health. She pointed to the deinstitutionalization movement and the neglect of its second part--establishing community-based mental health facilities for local treatment. Now, she says, our prisons are the mental health facilities of the country.

++She promised full policy proposals as she campaigns. But yesterday was a good start.

++Also she tacked left by criticizing the TPP.

++Meanwhile Bernie Sanders threw his cap into the ring at the age of 73. Sanders of all candidates is the primier climate change hawk and an economic populist. Matt Taibibi at Rolling Stone was thrilled and said don't count Bernie out.

++Martin O'Malley, who stumbled a biut, but the reaction in Baltimore and the blame thrown his way by the locals,printed in Huffington Post an op-ed on the situation in Baltimore. 

++Whatever you say,the Democratic race looks like it actually will be about real issues and not memes. 

++Mike Huckabee addressed the Hispanic Christian Association and said that whatever SCOTUS rules on same sex marriage, they can not over-rule God. Egads.

++Bobby Jindal has thrown his weight behind the movement to get Ginsberg and Kagan to recuse themselves from the same sex marriage case. Why not throw in Sonia Sotomayor.

++Representative Steven King of Iowa is trying to get  throw out the law that you are a citizen if you are born here in the United States. This is Louie Gohlmert's "Terror" babies.

++The House and Senate have passed a budget resolution--not law---that would cut $5 trillion from the federal government over 10 years and just devastate Medicare and almost any discretionary program. This is Paul Ryan on steroids.

++The White House denies they are trying to seize Texas in a military coup. Rand Paul is going to investigate the idea. Governor of Abbott has asked the National Guard to spy on our military exercise in the state and make sure the United States military is not going to seize Texas. True story.

The Letter

++The Letter got some coverage in Israel and was hooted down in Tehran, but Americans are getting pissed.

++WE The People has a petition on the White House. gov website for Senator Cotton be brought forth on charges of violating the Logan Act.

++The Daily Banter writes that the GOP Senators only skirted the Logan Act. But it notes the condescension of the letter to the Iranians. The Senators couldn't find an Iranian to address because they don't know the difference between the Supreme Leader and the President. The Daily Banter mocks the Senators' civic lessons on our constitution because they get it wrong. And, no, the next President can't just eliminate the deal with a stroke of his pen.

++Chris Matthews, no friend of Iran, was baffled by the Senator's letter. He said it was clearly a violation of the Logan Act and calls for three years in prison.

++Bernie Sanders was one of the first to attack the Republicans for their foolish action to back us into another war of their making.

++It is fun to see all the leftwing blogs crying "Treason!" since they have all the right to. This deluge has led to every attempt by conservatives to delegitimize President Obama.

++The invitation to Bibi was seen more in its effect on bipartisan support for Israel and another incidental rudeness to Obama. A few commented that Boehner had violated the Logan Act. But this episode grows beyond the pale.

++Does the GOP really want their history of sabotaging agreements to surface yet again?

Louie Loses, America Devastated

++Sister Sarah Palin endorsed Louie Gohmert for speaker but Louie fell short this morning. John Boehner was re-elected as Speaker, even though 25 Republicans left the ranch. But Louie is right. We are devastated.

++The White House has announced that President Obama will veto the Keystone XL Pipeline when it passes the Senate. Chuck Schumer says he has enough votes to uphold the veto.

++The Kirk- Menendez Bill which adds more sanctions on Iran could actually pass with  a veto proof majority. The problem is that it could torpedo the negotiations at a delicate point and undo the sanctions regime erected by the Obama Administration.

++Bernie Sanders will introduce a bill in the Senate Budget committee , which calls for $1 trillion in infrastructure spending and will create 3 million jobs. 

++Jerry Brown highlighted energy policies in his inauguration address and today the fast train's ribbon will be cut in Fresno.

Harry's Revenge

++Using the new filibuster rules, Patricia Millet won confirmation to the D.C. Circuit Court by a 56 to 38 vote.

++Mel Watt passed a cloture vote. Dozens of Obama nominees were unanimously confirmed. 

++Harry Reid filed cloture motions on another 10 of Obama's judicial appointees.

++Harry Reid said he refused to extend the old Farm Bill. The House was trying to extend it until January 31 for fear of the increase in milk prices. Earlier this morning it was reported that the new Farm Bill would not have as severe cuts in the Food Stamp program.

++The new Volcker Rule has been adopted by regulators of financial institutions. This would prevent banks from engaging in high-risk trades.

++Bernie Sanders has filed a "Medicare for All" bill to bring a single-payer system of healthcare to the United States.

++The people or guy at ACASignups.net reports over 520,000 have signed up on the exchanges without counting California.

++The Right still pumps out wrong stories about Obamacare, doctors fleeing it,couples not being able to cover their child with cancer.

++BY the way, I had my annual checkup with no co-pay courtesy of Obamacare.

++Yesterday was the anniversary of the autobailout and the announcement the US would sell its last shares of GM. Final tally--2.6 million jobs saved,$284 billion in personal income added. Thanks Obama!

++John Podesta moves back into the White House. The previous weeks have seen the Pundit clamour for another Dave Gergen. I guess this is the Obama Administration's answer.

++HHS gave Iowa a waiver to implement their own Medicare expansion. HHS has been flexible in tailoring Medicaid to the state's needs and we expect Pennsylvania to follow suit. The expansion of Medicaid and the private exchanges are here to stay in any future form of ACA. Republicans here are beginning to murmur these might be good things.

++The Gillbrand Amendment on Sexual Abuse in the military has been jettisoned. The Defense Budget being offered is $552.1 billion of a total budget of $1 trillion. Eric Cantor is trying to amend it to attach more sanctions on Iran to appease BiBi.

++A BFD you might not be aware of is the Water Project agreement between Jordan, Palestine and Israel. By the happenstance of geography, water will play a key role in any peaceful settlement between Israel and Palestine. I have known  people who have worked on this issue for over twenty years. This is big.

Last Thoughts of the Supreme Court

Maybe it was the time spent on the hearings or maybe it was the fact the justices have made up their minds and this was theater for the rest of us. But the exchanges during the last two days have been frightening. The impression is that these are not judges but powerful people guided by their whims. The spectacle of the justices picking and choosing what aspects of the bill they liked and whether they should send those back to Congress reminded me of board meetings I've been in where older poohbahs examined the work of the staff and then go ranting off on subjects that aren't relevant and then suggest changes which the staff knows will destroy the product but they are powerless to object.


Let's recap here. The Congress of the United States spent two years of time and untold resources trying to develop a healthcare bill that relied on all the precedents of the Supreme Court. John Kerry, who was head of the Finance Committee,told a demonstration outside the Supreme Court today that the bill was examined by the leading constitutional lawyers and found constitutional even before it was passed. 


Everyone working on this issue starting with the Heritage Foundation, who first suggested the individual mandate, to the Democrats who embraced it all operated on the assumption that it was constitutional. Virtually no one along the way, except the very far extreme right, thought it would run afoul of the Constitution. 


Virtually all the serious conservative and liberal constitutional lawyers I trust have written that its constitutionality is a no-brainer. 


If the Supreme Court does not take this into account--and I believe they will not--and the individual mandate is over-ruled, then we are not governed by law, but simply by men. Unfortunately, the Roberts Court has a habit of trying to create law anew on big cases. In Citizens United, by a 5-4 decision they overthrew over 100 years of precedent and allowed for the floodgates of  money to swamp our system.


I had hoped that the Court would have learned its lesson, given Justice Stevens'brilliant and eloquent dissent on Citizens United. However, Chief Justice Roberts ' attitude and curious ignorance of the subject raised my alarm bells. This is a court that decides by personal whim and prejudice. 


Yes, the Court's credibility will be damaged. But they don't seem to care. Judge Breyer walked out muttering in disgust today at the hearing.


So what will happen if the individual mandate is invalidated. Today, the judges were playing with whether to axe the whole bill,unilaterally vetoing the Congress' entire work, or allowing with noblesse oblige some elements to be accepted. 


Princeton's Paul Starr who has written about this issue for years believes health reform could survive this loss. But the New York Times' in its business section showcased the real father of the individual mandate--MIT's Jonathan Gruber. Gruber is the pioneer in modelling the intricacies of a "healthcare ecosystem", that description alone should tell you why Fat Tony Scalia hates the idea. It's too scientifically based, even for Opus Dei.


When he read the proceedings, he had heart palpitations. "Losing the mandate means continuing with our unfair individual insurance markets in a world where employer-based insurance is rapidly disappearing."


What this means concretely is that there will be about 8 more million insured, instead of the 32 million. It will set off a spiral where only relatively sick Americans would get insurance,premiums will rise causing healthier people to drop out and prices will go higher and higher, according to Gruber.


For the liberals among you, Senator Bernie Sanders said today that the public option had only 8-10 votes in the Senate. It was not a viable option then and not for the foreseeable future.

Bravo Bernie Sanders!

Senator Bernie Sanders is having his Network moment by speaking for hours against the tax deal and ,more importantly, how the United States got to such a position where the top 1% have 23% of the national income, which is more than the entire bottom 50%. The Washington Post had an interactive poll on whether Sanders is wasting everyone's time or making a valid point. 87% of those responding said he was making a valid point. And, probably, most heroic of this lonely gesture is that he really is filibustering in the classic sense and not idly threatening as the republicans do. Alas, Bernie, great speech--which polifact has fact checked and found "true"--but the Big Dog spoke this afternoon and called the tax plan a great deal. The cloture vote will happen at 3pm on Monday. Big Dog referred to Krauthammer's column as showing it was a bonus for Democrats. And they even trotted Mark Penn out on television. But it was Bernie who captured our hearts and minds.

I still think it's a great deal even though the Obama Administration has gotten a bit ham-fisted in their sales pitch. First, Larry Sumners threatened a second Depression if it didn 't go through. Then, one wheels out Bill Clinton, the father of triangulation.

Bloomberg News has commissioned a Nation Poll on the federal budget deficit, which Americans believe is "dangerously out of control". The poll was commissioned shortly after the release of the Catfood Commission's findings.The public wants Congress to keep its hands off Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. They oppose cuts in most other domestic programs and defense. They want to maintain subsidies for farmers and tax breaks like the mortgage-interest deduction. And they are also against raising the gas tax. The poll did see concern over the debt fall from 53 in October to 48% now.

Americans claim they want to balance the budget over the next 20 years. They opposed more than a dozen possible spending cuts and tax increases. The majority backs raising the cap on earnings covered by the tax on Social Security to over $108,000. Two-thirds would means test Social Security and Medicare benefits. Six out of 10 would end tax cuts for the highest-earning Americans. Seven out of 10 favor a tax on Wall Street profits.

Republicans are split on eliminating tax cuts for the wealthy--50% opposed, 47% supporting. On the end of a cap on earnings, the Repubicans are evenly split. Half of Republicans want to see both Medicare and Social Security preserved. Only 35% of all respondents back a system in which government vouchers would help people pay for their health insurance. 82% opposed benefit cuts to the Medicare health-insurance system.

72% of those earning $100,000 or more are opposed to any reduction in the Medicare Health program for the poor.

The Tea Baggers want to see a dramatic overhaul of social security--49%, compared to 41% of Republicans. Teabaggers want an overhaul of Medicare by 52% over 43% Rwepublicans.

On a new sales tax to eliminate the deficit, 46% are in favor and 49% are opposed.
53% favor a freeze on nondefense discretionary spending. But cuts in defense are opposed by 51% versus 45% in favor.

In other words, Americans are really concerned about the national debt but don't want to make any sacrifices to deal with it. It's clear from the poll that any efforts to cut the national debt will be despite popular opinion and not with its support. But it is nice to see Americans actually support the social welfare net.

The Pete Peterson Foundation held townhall meetings around the country and tried to persuade people to accept cuts to social security and Medicare. Interestingly, no one was buying this either. They opted for 10% cuts in defense. The Foundation didn't offer an alternatives higher than that. Otherwise, these townhall meetings would have gone for more defense cuts. The result was not to the liking of the organizers.

With the taxcut program, President Obama is moving ahead with his tax code overhaul. Appearing on NPR this afternoon was the man who was a major force in the last tax reform project twenty-five years ago--Bill Bradley. Bill Bradley talked about how and why the tax rates were lowered in the 1980s and spoke about how they have to be flattened again and the loopholes closed as they were then. He said that it was the closing of loopholes rather than raising tax rates that made the difference. he said that the current loopholes cost the government a trillion dollars a year. He pointed to the fact that this coming year will mirror the situation in 1986--one party controlling the Presidency and the Senate and another the House. That the time is perfect to start the process, which Dollar Bill said will take a long time. He said no one believed it could have been done last time but he talked about the bipartisan nature of the give and take necessary.

CHUM

Hapless Harry Reid will play bumper cars again today with Mitch "Froggy the Gremlin" McConnell on the financial reform bill. Reid promises a procedural vote everyday until the Republicans or just one of them caves. The Republicans scored the headlines around the country as the party blocking reform, while yesterday's poll showed over 2/3rds of Americans want reform.

The big enchalida here is the regulation of the $430 trillion derivatives market. Warren Buffet called them "weapons of mass financial destruction" and naturally his Berkshire-Hathaway holds $30 billion worth. The derivatives market is one of the last totally unregulated areas of the economy and given how well deregulation has worked elsewhere this is a major disaster just waiting to happen. To give you some idea, the GNP of all Planet Earth is $54 trillion. Derivatives are the huge black hole of finance. We saw the consequences of its wake in the sub-prime mortgage scandal, where non-performing mortages were scissored up and sold in the derivative market. The collapse of our state and muncipal governments is directly linked to the manipulation of the bond markets by the very people who peddle derivatives.

President Obama promised to veto any bill that didn't regulate derivatives. This, despite former Obama backer Warren Buffet's plea not to. Bill Nelson's vote yesterday--the only Democrat--against cloture is directly linked to Buffet's Omaha business. The de-regulation of derivatives came in the Clinton Administration after Republicans Phil Gramm and Jim Leach pushed for the repeal of the Seagall-Glass act created during the Depression to prevent another financial metldown. Egged on by Richard Rubin and Larry Sumners, Clinton signed the bill. Only Democratic Senator Dorgan went at great length to alert the public of the dangers here. Interestingly enough, given Progressives' attacks on her, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas has written a tough amendment to regulate derivatives.

Since there is now overwhelming support for financial reform, this seems like a win-win situation for Democrats, even if the Republicans managed to hold the fort. But Senator Bernie Sanders warns the public that President Obama, even with polls showing he is more trusted than the Republicans on this issue, is now going up against "the most powerful people in the world." The financial industry is going to throw everything they can at stopping this reform and we're in for some wild arguments against the measures.

There have been some tentative arguments put forth. Rachel Maddow quoted the first statements by the Tea Party Nation against the reform because "it would penalize advertising companies for false advertising." By this morning, I have read that it will end PayPal, regulate EBay, and hurt mainstreet because the banks will be reluctant to loan to small businesses. By the end of the day, there will be even more. Let's face it folks, these people own the United States and dictate what our economics is.

On Too Big Too Fail, don't worry about it. The United States Government will bail out the banks again if a crisis reoccurs--both parties know this. What the Obama Administration is trying to formalize is a rational way to dismantle a failing institution and to get the industry to pay for it. The lobbyists for both the derivative traders and the banks are fighting tooth and nail over provisions which would require more actual money being put up as insurance for the next time everything collapses. Here, the argument is that this will affect jobs--like the collapse of the system didn't.

The more the whole issue is discussed, it's quite clear that economists haven't really accounted for the effects of a situation that wasn't a recession or a depression brought on by natural financial cycles but a near Depression brought on by systematic criminal activity. Almost all elements of the 2008 crisis were the natural results of fraud being committed by all our financial institutions because of personal greed. And this fraud is central to understanding the devastating effects on society. And you can bet that there will be no RICO acts being invoked against Wall Street.

I think there is a similarity between the financial world's arguments against reform and the Vatican's statements yesterday that they worry parishioners might drop their pledges to the Church because of the pedophile scandals. Maybe Wall Street and the Vatican should hire the same P.R. firm.