R.I.P. The Party of Lincoln

++Mark Levin said that Trump's remarks about Ted Cruz' father being next to Lee Harvey Oswald should alarm Republican voters. We're going to get creamed he said.

++Rush Limbaugh said Trump will crush Hillary Clinton in a  landslide. 

++Charlie Cook said that Trump's nomination puts down ballot races in play. Predicts the Democrats will take the Senate and look to gain 20 seats in the House.

++Trump's victory in Indiana is widely attributed to his anti-immigrant positions. The Southern Poverty organization said that the Trump affect is leading to greater anxiety among minorities and immigrant families and an increase in bullying.

++ Washington monthly has an article on why the GOP is still blocking Merrick Garland's nomination to the Supreme Court. It is all aimed at voter mobilization. The GOP, even with Trump as the nominee,wants the social conservatives to believe reproductive rights will be eliminated with the next Supreme Court nomination. But they note that Red State is urging a vote on Garland because they believe Hillary Clinton will nominate a more liberal, younger justice. Red State is officially of the view that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency because of Trump.

++E-mails to me from abroad express deep fear,no terror,at the notion that Donald Trump could win the nomination of a major American party. On the one hand,they mourn that this is the ultimate dumbing down of America,the acceptance of totally ignorant points of view and diminish the country in the world's eyes. The reaction is many time more negative than when Ronald Reagan win the nomination in 1980. 

++On the other hand they are frightened to death of his total ignorance of foreign affairs and his statements not only against Muslims,African-Americans,and Hispanics but also his frequent statements against the Geneva Convention,already negotiated arms deals and other accepted agreements with our own allies.

++Max Fischer at VOX did an analysis of Trump's foreign policy by analyzing his statements to David Sanger of the New York Times. Fischer concluded that in effect Donald Trump wanted the United States to become the number one Rogue Nation in the world.  He does not even have a rudimentary understanding of how our alliances provide us with security and stabilize the world. It is American exceptionalism on steroids without any historical understanding. Fischer delving into his various statements has come to believe that Trump has literally no understanding or sympathy of the Post-WWII world. 

++Roger Stone,Trump's operative, sort of let the cat out of the bag when he talked about the Taft-Eisenhower convention where Ike got Taft's delegations from Louisiana and Texas thrown out and replaced by his own. There is a real fight between isolationists and internationalists in the Republican party. Ike beat down the Taft "American Firsters" and allowed internationalism to flourish. Ronald Reagan made internationalism acceptable to the conservative movement, an aberrant branch of which became neoconservatism. But as Michael Bloomberg noted,Trump is using language that harks back to American Firsters. 

++This should split the Republican Party. Robert Kagan has supported Hillary Clinton and Mark Salter also has supported Clinton on the strength of her experience as Secretary of State and her internationalism.

++Donald Trump also upended the economic discussion of the GOP. In this he may run to the Left of Hillary Clinton trying to gain support of white working class people in the Mid-west and in states like Pennsylvania where middle class Americans have not gotten a raise in thirty years and where death rates for white males around 55 are skyrocketing due to the lack of opportunity. The 1% now live 14 years more than the 99%. Trump uses the loss of manufacturing jobs abroad as his weapon. These are people who are now reacting to the collapse of the global economy in 2008 and find their social and cultural world turned upside down. 

++Van Jones warns Democrats that Trump can win the presidency. He says that he doesn't need states where there are significant Hispanic minorities and he only has to convince 3 out of 20 blacks to support him and he is president. 

++Tom Hartmann said that the dominant issues for this election will be the economy and the trade deals. He says that Trump is already going after Bill Clinton ala Ross Perot on the "worst trade deal in history"--NAFTA.  At this stage the pros and cons of NAFTA are no longer known but the myth that trade deals are bad has taken hold.

++Trump is also going after the modern Republican protection of hedge fund managers but will get away with his truly horrible tax policy that gives the richest even more tax breaks. But he is not of the trickle down economic school. 

++What Trump found was that the "real base" of the Republican party is not so much conservative as it is nationalistic and susceptible to nativism. His nouveau riche style violates the etiquette of the country club Republicans. My father-in-law is absolutely baffled by the man and how he could capture the Republican nomination.

++Van Jones, whom I think overhyped the threat of Trump, said that FDR mastered radio,JFK mastered television as well as Reagan, Obama mastered the internet and on-line videos, while Trump mastered the social media like twitter. He said that the dynamics of politics has changed that the villain wins in Reality television and that Trump brought politics into reality television as opposed to climbing the wall into politics.

++From a political scientist point of view, the school of the Party determines is over,Trump won as an outsider even though he is very much an economic insider. By doing so,the party structure of Republicans has imploded. Additionally,the three prong stool, Karl Rove has preached, national security,economic opportunity and social conservatism has collapsed.

++The failure of the GOP to develop policy during the Obama years has hurt it and Trump is the product of a policy-free party.

++It is very sad to see but inevitable when you ignore your own serious structural problems. Red State commentators last night were saying that the GOP kept making promises to their base they never intended to keep and now they are reaping what they sowed. 

++You can't  promise to uproot Obamacare and not do it for five years. You can promise to block the Iranian nuclear deal and simply not do it. You can't promise when you took over the Senate you are prepared to govern and be the least productive Senate in history. You can;t campaign that Democrats never pass a budget and then when it's your chance, you can't.

++The myth of the free market got destroyed with Donald Trump, who is against all trade deals and wants tariffs. We haven't had this economic reasoning since the 19th century, which was Republican orthodoxy.

++One of the most interesting developments has been the absence of the Koch Brothers in the presidential race. Trump is anathema to them and their economic ideology. 

++Larry Sabato said in an interview with a British documentarian that we have to acknowledge that the Trump candidacy destroyed the Republican Party. The resistance of the party to his nomination has pretty much vanished. They were routed and maybe a new party will be born.

++Sadly the Republican still control Congress and the state house. But in the near future what will this party believe?

Don't Cry for Me, Argentina

++We have a new 76-year old Pope named Francis. The first Pope from the Americas is also the first Jesuit elected Pope. Not surprising, he is conservative on cultural issues,very homophobic, against contraception and abortions. But economically, he has been outspoken about bankers,Argentina's debt problems and the poor. At first people thought he took his name after St.Francis of Assisi but it was after the founder of the Jesuits. The runner-up at the last Conclave, Francis has escaped the sex scandals that faced the other candidates. There remains dispute about his failure to protect priests and Jesuits during the Dirty War. Overall,it seems he is a caretaker Pope for a Church mired in sex and banking scandals and seen far removed from modern reality. The good news for science fans is that Pope Francis has a degree in science and as a Jesuit isn't against advances in modern science and medicine. The Italians got their digs in when they said he couldn't be Francis I until he dies. The question is whether he can get any control over the Vatican bureaucracy.

++The Sandman exits. Yes, Mariano Rivera did announce his retirement this past weekend. His exit was wonderfully covered by the New York Post. 

++Kobe Bryant did live up to his promises that the Lakers would make a run for the playoffs--until last night when he suffered a knee injury when he blew the potential game-winning shot against the Hawks.

++The Washington Post is hosting an event for the Donald, who will speaking on Washington real estate. Think that is strange? The Post ran a piece the other day about how Alexandria is divided on the fate of two warehouses on the waterfront. Of course, they are owned by the Washington Post and I have yet to hear anyone in town talk about the warehouses.

++Waiting for a half an hour to enter the Russell Building for an event on Iran's nuclear program, a motorcade whizzed around the building and the President entered the building from the back for a meeting with Democratic Senators about their budget proposals. The next day he showed up at the House to meet with the Republican Caucus, who complained that he was still campaigning. 

++David Bowie's first wife doesn't like "The Next Day", his first recording in ten years. I do. David Bowie returns with an album that is more sober than the past but still outshines any competitors. It is an amalgam of all his styles and is impeccably produced.

++Jimi Hendrix hit #2 on Billboard the other day. I guess if you want to make money,it's best you are dead.

++Speaking of dead, Random House has re-issued John MacDonald's The Quick Red Fox and A Deadly Shade of Gold. My old friend Doug Payne used to read Travis McGee in the old paperbacks. The main character reminds me of Doug.

++Cara Black has a new Aimee Leduc mystery out Murder Below Montparnasse. An old Trotskyite calls Aimee to retrieve a stolen Modigliani. He does so at the recommendation of Aimee's mother, who has been missing the whole series. Wanted for terrorism since the 1970s, her mother has been an elusive presence in the series throughout. The novel has a wonderful premise --that Modigliani painted Vladimir Lenin during his Paris days and gave the painting to the old Trotskyite's grandfather as a gift because Lenin refused it. I found the meaning of the painting more intriguing than Aimee running around Paris avoiding attempts on her life. And,yes, dear readers, we finally get to meet Aimee's mother.

++And speaking of the Left, Venezuela has decided to embalm Hugo Chavez like Lenin so all can see him for the future. The Venezuela government still believes the United States gave Chavez cancer and conservative Americans want to assassinate the anti-Chavez candidate. Why, who knows?

++Paul Krugman didn't declare bankruptcy. The piece circulated in the right-wing blogosphere was a lampoon. The telling part, in my mind, was the reference to a Tiffany charge account--reminiscent of New Gringrich's problems the last year.

++President Obama still seems to be reading Krugman as he mentioned that we don't have a debt problem right now but will in ten years--a position Krugman has maintained all along as he urged Congress to stay away from more austerity.

++In case you missed it, Paul Ryan unveiled his new super duper Budget this week to ridicule and yawns. Even Fox News on several shows said it was dead on arrival. Reporters punched back by questioning Ryan on the results of last year's election and didn't this mean his budget was rejected. Ryan admitted that repealing Obamacare was unlikely but his dream. Medicare vouchers have been transformed into a Super Premium Plan. I guess this was the advice of Frank Luntz. But don't be amused,the draconian cuts to the social welfare net are still priority number 1 of the tea baggers and will form the basis for the 2014 election. The GOP gamble is that 2014 will have as low a turnout as 2010 and enable them to maintain control of the House and Senate.

++President Obama has sent shivers up the spines of Democrats with his talk about entitlement reforms and tying Social Security to the CPI. Anyone who has read this blog over the years knows my position on Social Security. Lower the tax rate and end the cap and Social Security will live at full function for another 75 years. Repeat after me--There is no problem with Social Security. 

++CPAC is in town with more attendees than in the past. The sparkling line-up of speakers include The Donald,Sarah Palin, Dick Morris,Mitt Romney,Rand Paul,Vishnu Jindal, Ted Cruz, and thousands more celebrities. After picking Romney in a landslide,Dick Morris wrote yesterday that Pope Francis was an answer to the Left in Latin America and a counterweight to the influence of Hugo Chavez.

++Sequestration is taking hold. Don't go to any national parks. They may be closed. Special ed programs in the DC area, at least, are being cut back. Virginia is bracing to lose 200,000 jobs soon. It does not look like there will be a solution soon.

++The Dow ran 9 consecutive days of gains, the best performance since 1999 and is nearing its peak. But as everyone now knows, Dow performance hasn't even generated the much touted trickle down benefits for the average American. American corporations stashed about a $1 trillion bucks abroad this year to avoid taxes.

++Gun control legislation is passing around the states and moving forward in D.C. But controls on assault weapons and large magazines look out of reach.

++SCOTUS will probably decide against the Voting Rights Act. Already red states are gearing up for massive voter suppression in 2014 and rigging electoral vote counts in 2016.  Weirdly enough, I am still hopeful that DOMA will be declared unconstitutional and Prop 8 will bite the dust.

++Immigration Reform is moving in the Senate and the House Republican leadership claims it can pass there.

++The Conservative Crack-up continues. No one can future out what conservatives stand for--if anything--and right now we are experiencing the flavor of the week. This week it is Rand Paul because he warns that President Obama will send a drone at you while you are drinking a latte at an outdoor cafe. Next week it will be someone different, who wants to profile Muslims. I expect Rand Paul to win the CPAC straw poll for President in 2016.

Down the Rabbit Hole

++The Obama Superpac had said the past week that their Bain ads were setting up the next phase of their attack on Mitt Romney. Is it going to be tax returns?


++The Romney campaign released an ad today with pundits like Doug Brooks, Mark Halperin and others bemoaning Obama's negative campaign. The kicker is that the ad is framed by Bob Schieffer asking "What happened to hope and change?" Unfortunately Bon Schieffer saw the ad and was shocked by it and instantly distanced himself from it.


++The Boston Globe continued its investigation into Bain Capitol with an analysis of Romney's Massachusetts corporate submissions. This past week the Romney campaign demanded an apology from the Globe and didn't receive it. The Romney folks had been successful getting people like the Washington Post to apologize but it seems that has worn thin and no longer a successful gambit.


++Paul Ryan was on the campaign trail defending Romney by crying that "his holdings are in a blind trust",thereby opening another possible front in this issue.


++Forbes Magazine, the "Capitalist Tool", printed an article that said Romney had to answer at least 35 questions before the Bain issue would go away. 


++The real next issue is the release of tax returns. This puzzles conservatives. FOX news today pointedly blamed Romney for all the confusion over this issue,raising the question why hadn't he cleaned all this up before he ran again for President. Matthew Dowd claimed there must be something that Romney is hiding and George Will said,"Therefore, he must have calculated that there are higher costs in releasing them". Will may be right. During the primary, Romney said he wasn't releasing his tax returns because he didn't want to do "opposition research for the Obama campaign." Since Democrats have argued that Romney doesn't pay the same rate as middle-class Americans,there must be more to the picture.


++In some ways, Bob Woodward was right today that releasing financial forms doesn't really tell you that much. But the pathological secrecy of the Romney campaign on this issue has been severely damaging to him.


++The Donald says that Willard should not release his tax returns until Obama proves his identity. Romney could use the birthed issue as a wedge to prove his bonafides as a card-carrying conservative.


++One thing the Obama campaign has done is set up the next stage of the Romney campaign by sowing the seeds for challenges to his Olympic story. The story has been covered in the past about the corruption at that time in Salt Lake City. Romney managed to smooth over the issues with the contractors and even kept the biggest on board, despite criminal investigations.


++A Democratic blogger raised the interesting question of how would the press have treated Romney's financial dealings if he had speculated in cattle futures like Hillary Clinton. 


++There does not seem to be an easy escape for Romney on the financial side. Observers speculate that Romney has not been on the campaign trail this weekend and has ceded the debate to his surrogates who all have mixed and contradictory messages. The most hyperbolic statements have Romney actually bowing out of the campaign, while others think he will have another Shiny Object moment of picking a vice-president to avoid the subject. But even here, opposition research by Democrats have been in high gear on all the major choices for Romney. So even this will not go down lightly.


++What if after all this and the constant barrage of the last three years against Obama, we actually have a result in November that is similar to 2008? RealClearPolitics has the race Obama 332 electoral votes and Romney 206. Obama has Florida, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio, while Romney picks up North Carolina and Indiana from Obama.