Showing posts with label Nate Silver's Hispanic Vote adjustment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nate Silver's Hispanic Vote adjustment. Show all posts

Saturday, October 13, 2012

What Does The Hispanic Vote Mean?

++Important Nate Silver tweet if likely vote is 2 or less for Romney, Romney is in trouble. Not true yet. Keep that in mind over the next weeks.

++Nate Silver at 538 has adjusted his results to account for the Hispanic vote:

EV goes from 285 to 297. Probability of winning from 63 to 69% Obama. Popular vote goes from 61% to 71% chance for Obama. 

++He does a state by state breakdown. No, Obama doesn't have a great shot at Arizona. But Florida goes from 34% to 53%, Virginia goes from high 40s to 55%. Ohio becomes 67% and Nevada becomes 77%. Colorado goes from leaning Romney to 57% Obama. 

+So the Hispanic vote becomes the firewall for Obama. It also puts Florida in play where it looked like it was lost this week. It also solidifies what I said about Nevada. 

++Nate Silver's statement of yesterday that Obama needs Ohio and Nevada as his firewall looks like it is now possible with the Hispanic vote.