Showing posts with label National Debt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label National Debt. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

THE ALEXANDRIA AGENDA

Today conservatives release their Mount Vernon Declaration. They argue that our understanding of the Constitution has been distorted by our politics, culture and universities--in short by all America. I lack the literary imagination to envision our Founding Fathers as conservatives or imagine our current conservatives would have to the balls to rebel against Britain. The constitutional world they envision is agrarian,pre-civil war and equal rights for everyone regardless of race, creed or ethnic group. Their efforts were paid for by Coors Beer; I guess in honor of our great brewer George Washington.

Instead of blaming America first, the Alexandria Agenda is written a few blocks down from George Washington's survey office, Gadsby's Tavern, where the founding fathers ate and drank, and near the grave of the unknown revolutionary soldier, and accepts America as it is. There are no large corporate or foundation grants funding this historic enterprise. Since our Constitution does provide for the "general welfare", our Agenda is modest in scope and lacks all ideology. Our guiding founder is Benjamin Franklin, who believed in solving practical problems.

What kind of society do we want?

Health Care. We are the only advanced country without universal health care. Medical bills are the leading cause of personal bankruptcy in this country. The equivalent of all the Vietnam War dead die every year from lack of health care. This is obscene and beneath our dignity. Health care costs are soon to become 20% of our GDP, a severe handicap to any future economic growth. We propose Medicare for all. Howard Dean has explained at great length how including the younger population in Medicare will dramatically lower its costs. However, given the political realities of Washington, we would accept passage of any of the health reform bills with the proviso that all lacunae be filled in later. Presidents starting with Theodore Roosevelt have tried unsuccessfully to adopt universal health care measure for the United States. It is a large unfulfilled piece of the national agenda.

Housing. There are an estimated 18.6 million empty homes in the country since the subprime mortgage crisis. There are now over 3 million homeless in the country with an increasing number of suburbanites. These empty homes have been written off by banks and now are a blight in our towns and cities. Local governments should make provisions for the homeless to occupy these dwellings to prevent further deterioration. A new Homestead Act should be passed to encourage younger people to re-settle the cities that have been devastated by the Great Recession. Sweat equity could form the down payment and suitable payments could be made to allow a younger generation to acquire some wealth.

Jobs. For those Americans over the age of 55 ,who have been unemployed for a prolonged period of time,they should be able to draw social security because the odds are great that they have paid in enough to qualify. This should apply to those who have held jobs that will not come back because of globalization. We must concentrate on the younger generation, which actually may experience a lost decade. The federal government should create FDR-like WPA to employ the young so that they are not lost for a generation.

Education. When state governments can not afford their obligations for public education, the federal government must intervene to stave off the sharp cut-backs in education funding and in education facilities. The government should adopt the Obama proposals to underwrite federal loans to college-age students and keep these loans out of the hands of bankers. The level of debt acquired by college age students is simply not sustainable, plaguing the young for years to come. Every nation, including developing ones, understands that education is the absolute key to progress and economic advancement.

Science. Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Jefferson both were committed to the development of American science. Where the private sector fails to invest in scientific research and development, both the Federal and State governments must be obligated to underwrite such efforts. In this case, science must be kept free from politics and religious interference.

Debt. The most fortunate of us have profited from living in this country.The grave disparity of wealth in this country is a threat to the national welfare and stability. Efforts must be made to increase revenues from the top 2%, who have been the sole beneficiaries of the economics of the last ten years. Clearly, these people did not obey the "visible hand " Adam Smith wrote about, a prudent morality and self-control over the acquisition of wealth.

The manufactured alarm over Social Security can be alleviated by ending the cap of social security taxes and by making social security means-tested. With my proposal on 55 and older unemployed becoming eligible, these measures are needed. As it is, Social Security has the means to fully fund obligations until 2047. With my added measures, it will be permanently solvent.

Medicare will remain an issue but depending on whether it is extended down to younger people the means for solving it will be complex. With a passage of any of the present legislation, there will be significant savings in costs particularly in the second ten years.

The large remaining issue of debt is the national security budget that has been running over $1 trillion a year for the last several years. A national debate is necessary about our military commitments abroad and the role of the United States in the 21st Century. At our present rate, the United States resembles Brezhnev's Soviet Union bristling with military power but an empty shell of economic development. The United States will have to eschew its current imperial delusion if it is to adopt a balanced foreign policy that is within its means. Another aspect is to make defense procurement based on market-based economics. Currently, three major corporations dictate the costs of military procurements and have the advantage of veto power over cost-savings.

These modest proposals will have the long-term advantage of cutting our national debt and making us more secure against foreign domination.

Energy Self-Suffiency: Since the Nixon Administration, the United States has been acutely aware of its massive consumption of foreign oil and the foreign policy ramifications of such a dependency. Because of technological advances, there is no further reason for us to remain in this situation. Solar, geo-thermal, wind, nuclear and natural gas allow us the possibility of independence. Nano-technology is advancing so fast that solar costs will drop dramatically in the years ahead. Perhaps, there will be a day for nuclear fusion but even so energy indepedence can be achieved within ten years. For proponents of domestic oil exploration, additional reserves would only represent another year of our total needs. It simply is not an option. Whether one holds to climate change or is a skeptic, our national interest demands we advance in the use of alternative energy use.

Immigration Reform: With the exception of American Indians, we are all immigrants. Currently, there is an estimated 15-20 million people in the United States without legal status. They pay taxes and social security and provide cheap labor for American businesses. To imagine expulsion as the nativist dream is to envision a scale of human rights violations that would bring permanent shame on the country. An immigration reform bill already exists--the one proposed by Ted Kennedy and John McCain during the Bush years--that would provide the means that these people can regularize their status. However, imperfect, it should be passed as soon as possible so that we can clean up this national disgrace.

If these issues are addressed, the United States can make the transition back to its past position as an economic power in the world. The country is for all us. It is not just for some people with obscure ideologies that festihize our Constitution and privately harbor dreams of going back to a time before the New Deal and the Civil Rights struggles of the 1960s. The sooner we fight back against the new revisionism the better off we will be in advancing to a more prosperous, just future.

E Pluribus Unum

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Sunday Meditations

It's a little bit sad that a major political event is simply the U.S. Senate voting to have a debate on the healthcare bill. Sadder still is that there were no Republicans who voted to have such a debate, speaking volumes about their commitment to the free exchange of ideas. Presumably the status quo is fine. But whatever your politics the status quo is unsustainable. With no change, Americans will soon spend 1 out of every 5 dollars they earn on medical care. In addition to the some 40+ million uninsured, we would gain another 22 million uninsured and add them to about 25 underinsured.

The U.S. Senate is looking more like the House of Lords with the median age about 63 and most members multi-millionaires looking down on the masses with disdain. The Senate hasn't looked so bad since the days when Southern Senators would filibuster civil rights legislation. But at least those guys could quote John Calhoun.

The Republicans sounded as lame as I've heard them in years. For reasons I have not determined, the new Republican tactic is to utter a series of lies, not the Goebbels' One Big Lie, get caught out on them and then set off on another set of lies, hoping something will strike. This has been apparent since the 2008 Convention, which saw the Republicans revert to their old 1920s economic selves. The madness we hear on Glenn Beck is really just a continuation of the underside of the Republican presidential campaign, particularly on the side of part-time Governor Sarah Palin.

The arguments against the Health Reform Bill apparently run the gamut from giving license to Republican mistresses to have abortions to busting the federal budget to ending life on Planet Earth as we know it. So from abortions to death panels to getting the government between you and your doctor, presuming you can still afford a doctor, there are all sorts of reasons for doing nothing. Even the Catholic Bishops have weighed in saying the Health Reform Bill is the "worst we have ever seen". Which raises the question," what others have they seen." The Catholic Bishops are feeling their oats now after defeating the gay marriage law in Maine.

The problem here is that the United States really does need a sober-minded, mature second party and the mantras coming from the Republican Party as it tries to chase its dwindling base do not lend themselves to solutions to real world problems. Let's say the Republican Party manages to surf white resentment back into control of the Congress. Then, what? Other than voting for increases in defense spending and supporting war and torture, what solutions can they give for an economy that needs a radical transformation from consumerism to a more self-sustaining, energy efficient one? They already voted against the largest middle-class tax cut in history so what's next more deregulation and tax benefits for corporations. That's worked out just fine and dandy.

Well, we'll cut the deficit by cutting down to size the social welfare state in the middle of a Depression. The claim they will starve the beast just doesn't hold anymore. US Government existing obligations are on the order of $70trillion, including Social Security and Medicare. There are not enough cuts to make to the Government budget to be able to even dent the debt in the outyears. Cut social security and Medicare for their core base? The fact of the matter is that the GOP is in a deep conceptual hole. It must be ready to re-think everything it believes about the public good, a concept that seems to have disappeared in its mind, and it must start thinking about new forms of government revenues to be taken seriously again.

It is inconceivable to me that the GOP can adopt any form of economic populism. They balked at a windfall tax on the Wall Street bonuses when there was public outrage. To become populist, they would have to go full-tilt at their corporate backers--something they won't do.

I would suggest they start reading Bruce Bartlett's The New American Economy: the Failure of Reaganomics and a New Way Forward. Bartlett was on the ground floor of supply-side economics and walks the reader through the time it met its limits and its collapse at the end of the Bush Administration. His basic audience is Republican and he hopes Republicans become constructive once again and offer solutions that would not inhibit economic growth. If they don't, he says the Democrats will and that might thwart future economic growth.

President Obama always says that he inherited a debt of about $1.5 trillion from George W. I wish he would come clean on reality. Here's Bartlett:By the end of 2008, the federal government has assets of $2 trillion and liabilities of $12.2 trillion, for a net debt of $10.2 trillion. In another table of the Treasury Department's "Financial Report of the United States Government" it lists the unfunded future cost of retirement programs. At the end of 2008, Social Security was in the hole $17.2 trillion and Medicare would need $31.8 trillion to cover the expected costs over and above revenues. So, Uncle Sam had an addition debt of $49 trillion on top of the national debt-let's just call it $59 trillion. As Bartlett says, Social Security is fixable with slight rises in the Social Security tax but Medicare has to be reformed within the context of the entire health care system.

Are these problems unsolvable? No. But they can't solved when the Republican Party acts like we should be Brezhnev's Soviet Union with enormous military power while the economy is collapsing and it embraces a view toward science that mimics Lysenkoism.

In the meantime, get ready for a giant food fight after Thanksgiving. And kudos to Hapless Harry Reid, who finally became a leader for a day.

Monday, February 2, 2009

From the Bureau of a Misdirected Destiny

I had to use this graffiti I saw yesterday on a fence in Washington D.C. It seemed appropriate when I heard Michael Steele on the local radio station spell out the Republicans view of how to move ahead on the economy. Steele was the most articulate of the Republicans so far in talking substantial economic points but he reiterated the mantra of more tax cuts--some of which actually to make sense if targeted to job creation. With Kay Baily Hutchinson parroting the party line on the weekend talk shows and Mitch McConnell threatening to filibuster the economic stimulus package in the Senate. The question has to be raised: According to Republicans, where is the country economically?

I think there is a consensus of Republicans that we are in a severe recession but with low inflation. Given the genetic programming from the 1980s, when the US had stagflation and after Reagan built up the national debt, the logical Republican argument is to stimulate the economy through tax cuts and fiscal policy and curtail government spending, especially on social programs. Unfortunately, the Fed is out of tools--loaning money at 0% interest--and tax cuts have been used throughout the last eight years. With growing unemployment, the safety net has huge wholes that need plugging. So then are we back in Hoover land as New York Times' columnist Frank Rich maintains? In his Sunday column he pointed out that the Republicans have no sense of urgency of this matter. That's because they really do not understand we are on the precipice of a Depression.

One of the reasons the House stimulus plan passed so easily was that the Obama team came prepared the first week to get the ball rolling. This has stunned Republicans who remember the chaos of the Clinton transition and the slow pace of Bush. It's in response that they are now reacting, except without much intellectual firepower. This past weekend, John McCain claimed the Senate Republicans would offer their own stimulus plan.

How this goes in the Senate is anyone's guess. But Alice Rivlin, the former Clinton adviser, raises red flags for those who believe Obama has the ability to re-invent the country at this time. She warns that China, which is starting to plunge into a recession, will not have the ability or will to buy up our debt as in the past and that this should curtail some of Obama's ambitious goals. Remember during FDR's time the US was a creditor country and not a debtor. So the restrictions on Obama are based on whether the US can sell sufficient treasuries to other countries, almost all of whom are in recession, to cover our massive debt.

Our friends at The Young Turks have voiced their justifiable concern that if Obama puts health care reform and an energy policy on hold so as to adjust the short-term economic problems, by the time he comes back to Congress, the response will be that the US has no money left. That's part of the reason Nobel Prize winners Joseph Steiglitz and Paul Krugman are warning Obama off creating a bank to buy all the "toxic assets" of the American banks. Not only would that quadruple the national debt but it would forestall any meaningful change.

It seems to me that the media should get Republicans to answer simple questions about where we are in the economy, what caused the current situation and what happens if we do not respond in a timely fashion. The media allow Republicans to respond to the Obama plan without critically following up where they are coming from and whether they feel any urgency on these matters.

Republicans governors have abandoned ship on their congressional counter-parts because they have to govern and their states are close to or are in bankruptcy. They have been lobbying the Hill for passage of the stimulus, particularly on infrastructure works and employment plans.

People are rightfully angry at the Bush bailouts and $15 billion given bankers as bonuses. This past weekend the Associated Press did an investigative story that showed the bankers wanted to hire some 25,000 plus of foreign workers with the bailout money and not rehire the Americans. The jobs in question were in the $90,000 wage range.

The problem is that no one can tell whether the economic stimulus package will work in a meaningful way. As Robert Samuelson wrote in the Washington Post the other week, Obama is facing several different financial crises and that to solve them all is like winning the Tour d' France.