Dailykos Battle Ground Polls

++Trump orb ably got a bump of about 1.5pts from the convention but his battleground polls didn't move much, except in Missouri. I have a colleague from Missouri and I've told him its racism ensures Trump's win there.

++But I still want to know more about the money and organization out there. You can tell men Trump is close but he still has to get out the vote and spend money. Where is this?

The Year's Final Push

++November saw more posts than two complete years of this blog and close to another one. The reason is that we are closing out the Obama years and this blog was intended to chronicle rather crudely this period.

++What lies ahead this month? 

++We have 90 days before the Iowa Caucus. Do voters make up their mind in the last month? Nate Silver says New Hampshire voters wait until the last week after they have digested the Iowa results. 

++Do polls matter only after the Holidays? That is a dispute between Sam Wang and Nate Silver. In the general election the real polls that matter occur after Labor Day.

++The election promises to be the ugliest in years. Already the issue of Hillary's "affairs" and "thyroid problems" are raised along with Marco Rubio's "zipper problem". Now Ted Cruz raises a third way of doing Foreign Policy. We have no dog in the Syrian fight . Just let it alone. 

++This morning President Obama held a press conference on the Climate Change Summit .  He said 100% of the countries are on board for a deal. The Nation says the deal will be horrible because it doesn't take effect until 2020 and the countries accept a 2 degree rise in warmth.

++December will see a climate agreement and everyone can say its not single payer health care or a big enough stimulus or something.

++WE should see some more inmates from Gitmo resettled.

++And hopefully, we end the year with a nice Indian meal.

A-Rod Hits 3 Hrs.

++As A-Rod hits 40 years old,let's reconsider the fate  of baseball greats that were tainted by brushes with steroids. I say it is time to induct Roger Clemens,Mike Piazza, and Barry Bonds into the Hall of Fame. Nate Silver says we should do this if we deduct 30% from the totals of these stars. Bonds would still make it with plenty to spare. Pete Rose, as obnoxious as he is, deserves entry. Are we supposed to have a Hall of Fame for different stimulants--Babe Ruth for alcohol, Willy Mays and Roberto Clemente for speed, and a different one for steroids. What happens to Doc Ellis who pitched a no-hitter on LSD. Now that is amazing.

++So when the time comes,we have to consider A-Rod.

++As President Obama makes his way to Ethiopia,there have been plenty of polls on the presidential race. The Donald is romping in New Hampshire and is closing on Walker in Iowa. National polls still favor Hillary, while state polls show her unfavorables are dragging her down. 

++But is summer, which brings the worse out in Americans. 

Gonzo GOP

++I can't tell anymore the difference between the Republican congresscritter and Bryan Ferry of the Religious Right Talk Shows. I simply could not tell you why they shut the government down and why they believe there would not be an economic collapse if they breached the debt ceiling. Today, they were even more confusing. The House has offered sort of a clean debt ceiling bill, but would keep the government closed down while the Administration and the Democrats would talk--about what? Paul Ryan earlier in the day suggested a clean debt ceiling and the House immediately negotiate a budget with the Senate, who has been waiting since March. This seems fine ,except how does the government open. The Senate Republicans tonight are urging a one-year clean debt ceiling and a CR, which would eliminate the tax of medical devices and verify the income of Obamacare recipients. But it is unclear whether the House would pass that.

++Today, House Republicans said they were giving up on defunding Obamacare, while Heritage and the Club of Growth urged a clean debt ceiling but keeping the government closed so as to negotiate over Obamacare. Eric Erickson of Red State threatened the Republicans with the creation of a third party because they failed to defund Obamacare.

++It does look like the bankers, the Koch Brothers and the Chamber of Commerce did bring the hammer down on the GOP over the debt ceiling.During the day, you could feel the tension go out of the Capitol and Wall Street rocketed back up over 15,000.

++I have written about President Obama using the 14th Amendment to raise the debt ceiling but it suddenly dawned on me that Congress would be violating the 14th Amendment by breaching the debt ceiling. Does anything happen to them?

++I have a tendency to be obsessed until I can make sense out of something. The  polls--the latest from the Wall Street Journal--show the GOP at 24% approval, while President Obama's rising to high 40s and Rasmussen to 50%. The GOP is 7 points lower than their lowest point, which was the day they impeached President Clinton. What gives?

++Personally, I think the GOP was out to destroy President Obama's Presidency but got so tangled up in their story that they  showed their "Tell". Basically, the GOP was committed at the time of Obama's swearing in to not only obstruct the Presidency but to fundamentally re-orient our democracy. The imperial presidency, which they created and sought to make the unitary executive as envisioned by Dick Cheney, is of no more use to them.

++Why was there such a lack of response to President Obama's request for armed force in Syria among a party that thrilled at war? It was not because the anti-war factions in each party triumphed, while that was partly true. Instead, the GOP has become isolationists. Notice how they don't even comment on the destruction of the Syrian chemical weapons. They floated the idea that this was some sort of Potemkin Ruse but reality shows differently. So move on. What is their response to the cutting of aid to Egypt? John McCain is the only one who has commented but the GOP just doesn't give a damn.

++Why? After Reince Preibus issued his paper on the need for GOP outreach,the party has gone in reverse direction. Even during the shutdown, there was talk about attaching more anti-abortion language and anti-contraception language in the CR. Despite a rally of thousands for immigration reform,there is no response from the House. And the continual attacks on President Obama are not meant to win the hearts and minds of the African American community. The "Cooch" went out of his way to reinstate the anti-sodomy laws in Virgina to no avail. Chris Christie appealed the court's decision to allow same-sex marriage in New Jersey. If anything, the whole Out Reach issue has gone into reverse.

++Today, the press revealed that the House changed their own rules on September 30 that prohibited any law from reaching the floor unless it was approved by the Speaker. That's why we had the shutdown. Also, the House today suggested that a clean bill on the debt ceiling would prohibit the Fed from using the powers of exigency to loan the Treasury money. The Center for American Progress actually hailed this as giving some certainty to the actual time of the debt ceiling. But it would erode an executive privilege, which would save a financial meltdown. 

++The net effect is that the Republican establishment has collapsed and it sees itself only as a congressional party and ,I believe, abandoned any serious ambitions to seize the White House. So the idea is to strip this President, especially, but all other Democratic presidents of the overwhelming power of the presidency. Basically,the Tea Party and the Business Community would dictate to the President the direction of the country.

++Many have called this neo-confedaratism and it is. The Art Popes and the Koch Brothers will continue to buy up states like North Carolina and Wisconsin and set the agenda for those states. The House Republicans from gerrymandering and voter suppression will retain their majority and hope they can take back the Senate. But even in the Senate,Mitch McConnell has set the tone of their behavior forcing 60 votes until a bill can reach the floor. This in essence blocks all Democratic initiatives. 

++They got into any Presidential election too far behind on the electoral votes. Changing how these votes are counted has been tried but in its most flagrant manner been dismissed by the courts. Even with voter suppression, they know women will remain about 61% of the vote and African-Americans and Hispanics will continue to rise.But any real outreach would jeopardize their congressional lock.

++The bizarre spectacle we have seen in the last week has been a full-blown civil war among Republicans with the potential that the rest of us would pay considerable collateral damage. When the dust settles, do not expect any moderation from Republicans or that they will stop this nonsense until Barack Obama leaves office.

++Finally, I guess  you should expect it. The Right is now going after Janet Yallin. Their campaign is against her because she is soft on inflation--something that hasn't been around for the last 6 years.