Tides May be Turning

++Kudos to Richard Trumpka, the President of the AFL-CIO, for being the only one I have read that emphasized the humanitarian crisis being faced by Syria's refugees and displaced people. None of Sunday's talking heads mentioned the issue. Although  the Nation's Publisher Ms. VanderHeuval did emphasize this later in the morning shows.

++Luis Ocampo, the lead prosecutor for the ICC,wrote an Op-Ed for Huffington Post that made the point that the EU,UK,and the Arab League has a consensus that there are crimes against humanity being committed in Syria. He suggested that the international community take the lead by creating the types of adhoc tribunals they had for Yugoslavia. Through this mechanism, perpetrators of the crimes should be prosecuted. He points at that Russia had a similar draft before the United Nations that included the insurgents. 

++President Obama has an absurdly abstract case to be made for the authorization for the Syrian strikes. People don't get an act of war for 1,000 people killed by nerve gas as opposed to one for 110,000 killed by conventional weapons. 

++But no need to fret, the House is too tired from their five week recess so they may--again--may vote on the authorization in two weeks! 

++The Senate is to take up a procedural vote today to test whether the bill can get to the floor without a filibuster.

++This morning John Kerry said that an attack would be called off if Syria surrendered their chemical weapons. Shortly thereafter Russia proposed that Syria put their chemical weapons under international control. The Secretary General of the United Nations said that if the report by the end of the week shows that chemical weapons were used he would propose to the Security Council that they make Syria surrender their chemical stockpile. Earlier this afternoon, Assad said he agreed with the Russian proposal. Delay or actual compliance would mean the difference between a military attack or a stand-down of American forces. Hillary Clinton on a visit to the White House said that Russia's initiative was significant.

++According to John Kerry, at least a dozen nations have signed on to participate in the military attack if it happened. 

++A historical note. Saddam Hussein under pressure from the international community has agreed to leave Iraq if he was allowed to keep a billion. What a difference that would have made! There is an offer to Assad in the same range for him leaving the country.

++Bloggers note that dictators always give "death interviews". Saddam Hussein, Muammar Qaddafhi,Mubarack (not dead but toppled) just before it is politically curtains for them. So Charlie Rose's interview with Assad now joins the ranks. Assad basically said that there is no evidence he used chemical weapons and the Devil did it or some such thing.

++Ted Cruz said the whole Syrian crisis was to divert Americans attention away from Benghazi. It should be noted that Cruz said to the moderator that 9-11 was the anniversary of Benghazi. Nothing else seemed to have happened that day. Other conservatives are using this refrain,neglecting to mention their hero letting the Twin Towers and the Pentagon get hit by Al Qaeda. Michelle Bachmann, appearing at a Cairo press conference, with Steven King and Louie Gohmert said that she applauded the military coup in the country and that the Moslem Brotherhood was responsible for 9-11. I didn't figure out which 9-11 since the Right also believes the Moslem Brotherhood was involved in Benghazi.

++We are getting the whole refrain that President Obama by doing the right thing--bringing a request for military action to Congress is a lame duck President. In the Beltway, it's about personal wins and losses--not solutions. Frankly,if chemical weapons were removed from Syria, I would take it as a win.

Cheeseheads Vote Against Collective Bargaining

The Wisconsin Assembly got in the act today to deny public employees the right to collective bargain. Wisconsin police were out todday with riot gear and crowd control implements. Even a few students got arrested--the first in weeks of demonstrations.

Fox and Friends celebrated the union busting measures in Wisconsin, even though all the hosts are union members whether they know it or not.

There was a vote to replace the Republican Speaker of the Senate. It lost but it was accompanied by a series of speeches by Democrats. Speaker Fitzgerald claims that the recall efforts in the state were being orchestrated by President Obama as a payback to the unions. Even Fox News was skeptical.

The Wisconsin Department of Justice is investigating the e-mail threats against the Republicans. Alot of people suspect this will turn out to be another one of those B girl incidents--named after the girl who carved a backward B into her cheek and claimed it was black supporters of Barack Obama who did the did. Of course, she did it.

The demonstrators in Milwaukee started picketing the Governors' office there. Minutes later they saw him fleeing the bullding through the back door.

The police union is asking for legal protection against charges they illegally performed duties for the Governor. Only a few days ago they publically told the Governor they were not his pretorian guard.

One Democratic Senator came back to attend a demonstration, the rest are remaining in Illinois.

The lawyer for the state employees is the former Democratic Attorney General. All day he has been outlining how the whole bill was unconstitutional and how unorthodox last night's proceedings were. he was very confident that all of this would be declared unconstitutional.

Jesse Jackson, the only man who can save us now, has returned to Wisconsin. When the protests first started, he was one of the few known outsiders who appeared. I would imagine demonstrations will increase over the weekend.

One little detail about the bill, which people neglect to mention, is that it defunded Medicaid in the state, which will be crippling to poorer people and those with disabilities.

Richard Trumpka said that Scott Walker was the AFL-CIO's Mobilizer of the Year. What started as a one state issue has now gone regional, with large crowds turning out in Indiana and Ohio. The collective bargaining issue is now moving on to Iowa.

Besides leading his own wildcat strike, the mayor of Madison has also filed papers in the court asking for the bill to be voided.

Meanwhile back in Washington, if there is no budget deal by Friday,the government will shut down. Of course, there is no human cost to any of this.

NEA and CATO both blasted Karl Rove's anti-Obama and anti-union ads in Wisconsin. NEA said that everything said about them and their president was taken out of context. CATO was more snippy saying that the aid misused the information from their study and just lied about the results. Karl Rove is standing by the accuracy of his ads but will not tell you the donors.

Speaking of which--Can we seize all the businesses and personal assets of the Koch Brothers under the RICO Act? This could then be distributed to the states to pay for their shortfalls in education budgets.

Whom Do You Represent?

It seems the GOP has trouble grasping representative democracy. Even though you win elections, you do have to represent all your constituents. The exit polls for this year's elections clearly indicate the issue was jobs and the economy. Yet, our newly elected Republicans have taken this to mean an outright endorsement of their ideology--and an ideology it is. They claim they are for "limited, constitutional government, cutting taxes (although they will not acknowledge Obama cut them) and the deficit".

While the President extended his hand to reach compromise, both John Boehner and Mitch McConnell said that Obama would have to adopt the Republican agenda or else they will close down the government. Oklahoma Tom Coburn threatened to close down the government unless $300 billion cuts in spending were found immediately. Senator Jim DeMint has demanded the right to read every bill before he would consent to let it come to a vote. A punk Michigan congressman, who just barely won election, demands that Obama do what Republicans say or the government will be closed down.

All of this rhetoric comes around the impending need to raise the debt ceiling of the country. The last time the GOP blocked this under the Clinton Administration we were not in a depression, fighting two wars, and having to assure the international community we can manage the awesome debt accumulated during the Bush-Cheney years. A failure to raise the debt ceiling now would trigger a collapse of the stock market and another severe challenge to the international economic system. Yet, our great media doesn't call these people out on their sheer insanity. They like the sports analogies of politics.

Dick Armey gave an interview with NPR where he outlined what the new Republican House should do. He claims that this is utterly the last chance the Republican Party has or else it will be finished on the national stage. He said that new teabagger members should just vote for limited government and cut all spending. The only spending that they should guarantee is military because that is the only function the federal government must perform. He said that he would suggest introducing a bill immediately to repeal Obamacare and even if it didn't go to the President then they should keep voting on it to fulfill their promises. (Note: repealing Obamacare would increase the federal debt by trillions as we know from the OMB report.) Asked whether Republicans should compromise with the Democrats and President Obama, he said Obama called Republicans "nasty things" during the campaign , unlike the nice epithets the GOP has called the President since Day 1, and that the Republicans can not trust him.

Now listening to Dick Armey talk about "limited government", you get a sense we are a country the size of New Hampshire, have no international obligations, social commitments to our citizens and aren't pivotal to the world financial system. The Exit Polls show that 37% of the Republican voters wanted more spending for job creation, not less, and a majority really didn't care about the national debt--like Republicans never have since Eisenhower. Also, the largest voting bloc for Republicans were the white elderly and the Party can not risk alienating its last base of support by cutting entitlement programs.

Now we have Republicans sitting in Congress saying they will not compromise. It's like they have never participated in the legislative process before.

But what bothers me is whom do they think they represent. We always hear Boehner say "The Voice of the American voter has been heard." but he never said that when President Obama won. When healthcare reform enjoyed a 59% popularity before the disinformation campaign was launched, we didn't hear Boehner accepting this. Only when Fox News and the faux teabaggers started their white riots, did he invoke the popular will. BUT, we once understood that if you were elected to such offices, you represented everyone in your district or your state no matter what their affiliation. Already, new members are turning away calls from constituents who did not support them. They is unprecedented in recent memory.

This is a serious problem. For example, John Kasich barely won by a whisker his battle against Gov. Strickland. During the election campaign he was asked what he would cut and what taxes would he raise etc. Like all GOP candidates this year, he dodged or refused to answer these questions. Yesterday, after the results were announced, he proclaimed that he was cancelling the rapid train plans through Ohio, which had been approved by the Federal Government, stated he would refuse to accept any further stimulus funds for the depressed state, would not enforce the voter-approved tax hike to support the public school system and would totally reorganize State government and eliminate whole departments. He said he would drastically cut education spending. Remember nearly 49% of the state voted against him. The scenario was repeated in Wisconsin with the election of a new Republican Governor. The first day after his victory, he announced he was cancelling the new rail link into the state as developed as part of the rehabilitation of our rail systems.

Like Chrissie in New Jersey cancelling the tunnel to Manhattan, these Republicans try to make a great show of cancelling such projects as if they are saving money. In all three cases, they will have to pay hundreds of millions back to the Federal government. Also, all three rail projects were to be funded by US-backed transportation bonds.

But it's the collossal arrogance and ignorance of these people which is appalling. We should expect this in the next year because you can look it up--none of these people told the voters what they would actually do. But it is clear that they all had a coordinated plan. Cut to Karl Rove. Speaking in western Pennsylvania yesterday to oil drillers, he assured them that there would be no new regulations on oil drilling passed by the House and that anything having to do with Clean Air was dead. How Does He Know? Was this a quid pro quo, all the candidates agreed to for the support of Crossroads America? Is this not bribery?

Out on the West Coast, a tired, old, hoarse Jerry Brown made his victory speech in an Art Deco movie theater built in 1928. Brown had refurbished the building and created two schools there while Mayor of Oakland. Perhaps it's his Jesuit training or Zen practices or simply his memory of his past time as Governor. He opened his speech with his firm commitment to a younger generation and stated his first priority as governor would be to get the resources to support the public education system in the state. Jerry Brown was one of the reasons California could brag about its public education system and its extensive college system. This jewel in the state's crown had been tarnished by draconian budget cuts in recent years.

But Jerry Brown reminded his audience that the political situation in the state and in the nation was highly polarized. He said that over 40% of the voters did not cast their ballot for him but his opponent. But he urged everyone not to compromise on principle but to compromise so that all Californians could seek common ground and a vision for the future. This is not the winner--takes--all principles we are seeing among Republicans. His words may be corny but they remain true in all of political life. Once the campaign ends, governing begins and we have to search for the common good. Maybe it's Jerry Brown's 71 years or maybe it's his experience as a successful governor 35 years ago, but it was clear that he would try and serve all Californians. You do not get that sense from any of the Republicans who have been elected. There is a ruthless nihilism that comes through that should scare everyone. There is no sense of the common good. It is completely lacking.

Another bright spot in the last few miserable days was the YouTube talk by AFL-CIO President Richard Trumpka. I guess you have to have led a long miners strike to have the bounce he did after the election. He addressed his rank-and-file and talked in detail of all their election activities and said how much they had affected the elections in Nevada, Colorado and California. He could have said that they came damn close in Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio. But if you are going to speak in defeat, Trumpka had the tone down pat. He said the work begins again today to fight for workers' rights. I find myself more and more impressed by him.

Not to miss a beat, Nancy Pelosi was in California to start the formation of the state's "exchanges" for the implementation of the healthrefom bill and made an extensive speech about how this will help the state rebound from its economic woes and generate new jobs. As for her loss as Speaker, she can claim that she led the most progressive legislation in over a generation. It's really too bad some 400 of these bills never got taken up by the Senate.

Progressives are finally waking up to find that almost all their caucus is left in place. It was the Blue Dog caucus that was slaughtered. Progressive really have to find a way to commuicate their positions. Throughout the last two years, polling on policy reflects that the American people support "progressive" positions if phrased specifically. Almost 60% of the American people backed a public option for healthcare reform. Similar percentages back a larger stimulus and also President Obama's plans for the infrastructure. Given that Teabaggers supported funding for job creation, there might be room for a little subversion in the next Congress.

Republicans are now showing their true attitudes to the teabaggers. Michelle Bachman's attempt to make a move to #3 in the House was rebuffed and Karl Rove has now openly gone after the teabaggers. In the House, they will get their pet rocks like the gratuitous investigations into ACORN but they will not have a say about the corporate agenda of Tan Man Boehner. Boehner had already plotted policy in his meeting with Wall Street in New York last Spring.

So far, the Republicans have overreached in their statements about their mandate. The Rasmussen poll is actually looking quite prescient about the degree of disappointment people will feel with the new Congress. It's going to be interesting to see how the teabaggers react to getting their orders from the leadership. The new Republicans are far more radical and less corporate than their leaders. It would be delightful if the GOP didn't vote in a solid block for the first time in years. It might take the new authoritarians to break up the authoritarian rule.

Forget the Democrats for a minute. The new Republican party has an ideology that is like the mirror image of a Marxist paradise. It is libertarian, free market utopianism. Col.Wilkerson, Colin Powell's former Chief of Staff, said that these Republicans' views on economics are so laughable except for the situation we're in as a country. Wilkerson warned that the United States has to have good presidential leadership for the next four terms to get out of our mess and if we don't we will decline rapidly.

What does "constitutional, limited government" mean in the 21st century? We know from the past eight years that endless tax cuts and de-regulation did not create jobs and prosperity or make us stronger abroad. We know that economic development depends on education, investment in research and development and infrastructure, which did not happen until this President took over. And how do you square "limited government" with your imperial dreams? People like Pat Ryan with his "Blueprint for the Future" tries to square all this but only comes up with a country that would de-develop but remains a formidable military power. And he now will be head of the budget committee in the House. Over 15 libertarians won seats in the New Hampshire legislature and maybe that's where such people belong.

The problem we face is that people like the simplistic solutions until the implications are spelled out. If you eliminate social security, will your children take care of you in your old age? Will you and your family be able to afford healthcare? If you severely cut public education, won't we be at the mercy of other countries' who can out-compete us and out-arm us?

It seems to me an indicator of a Great Society is how it takes care of its most vulnerable. This new Republican vision has no room for compassion, empathy or solidarity with others. There is no social compact. There is really no role for government except to protect us from real and imagined foes. Limited government breeds large corporate entities, which Republicans frame as "entrepeneurs", "the producers", and "small business". Only government can violate human rights, not corporations. The rest of society--the old, the infirm, the poor, minorities--are just out of luck. Because that's the price you pay for your freedom.

Many of the new Republican senators and congressmen proclaim that "Atlas Shrugged" is their inspiration. Almost all who said this are dependent on government for their wealth and their families receive unemployment insurance, social security and government pensions. I received an e-mail tonight from a conservative complaining about Obama's mythical plans to raise taxes on the "European model" with a complete chart of all of Europe's tax rates. He said the example was Greece, where until this year you could retire at the age of 48. What is strange is that this person receives a nice miltary pension, benefits from government health insurance at $300 per month, works for defense contractors and also receives a stipend from a news agencies partly owned by the Saudis. He basically gamed the imperial side of our system to have a permanent livelihood. But he has no sense of irony when he advocates these right-wing positions about our welfare state.

Now this call for the repeal of healthcare. The Republicans are promising they will repeal this signature accomplishment of Barack Obama. They might as well try and air-brush him out of history. What they never say--and our media doesn't mention--millions more Americans will go bankrupt because of health costs. We are currently spending 2.5 trillion dollars a year on healthcare in this country, several times the percentage of GNP of any other developed nation. From the healthcare debate, we saw how that cost will continue to escalate unless something like the healthcare bill was passed. The Republicans scared seniors this year--this was Karl Rove's doing--that Obama cut $500 billion from Medicare. What he did was eliminate that much in fraud, waste and over-charging by insurance companies. Any repeal of healthcare would out the country again at the mercy of rapacious health insurance companies. But even they don't want it repealed as some of their spokesmen made clear today. They need the individual mandates--the precise element the Republicans oppose--in order to survive as a viable business.

Somehow the bipartisan agreement that we have a dysfunctional healthcare system seems to have vanished once Barack Obama triumphed. The alternative offered by House Republicans last time would only increase coverage of 3 million Americans, not 40 million and would only save $58 billion in a one time move. We would be stuck with the monstrous system as it is and all go bankrupt.

To answer Senator Coburn, President Obama should repeat his desire to kill the new fighter jet, which is running billions over budget and would cost $300 billion to complete. That would be the instant budget cut Coburn was looking for. But the problem is that the House doesn't want to cut this needless weapons system that was geared for the Cold War.

There are some cynics who believe we should just let Republicans have their way and then the American people would become aware of their treachery. But we know from this mid-term that the American people have already forgotten how we got to the present place. And they would buy into tax cuts for corporations as job creation. Even though we found out the contrary during the George Bush years. A key element in this mid-term elections was the almost relentless 20 month propaganda campaign by the right against President Obama so that none of his significant achievements were acknowledged and almost all the bad moves at the end of the Bush years were blamed on him such as the TARP program, which he turned into a profit.

George W. Bush's memoirs are out. Don't buy them. But one gets a sense how dumbed down we have become as a country when there is no outrage that he proudly asserts he approved the torture program and specifically ordered KSM to be waterboarded. P.S. Contrary to his assertions there was nothing learned from the torture other than disinformation that linked Saddam Hussein to Al Qaeda. Also, W says that even though he had been told about the impending economic collapse two years in advance, he was more interested in things like the rate of inflation and not these larger issues. So he didn't do anything. The most distressing moment of his presidency was not 9-11 or blowing Iraq, but being called a racist by Kanye West.

George W. claims that he really didn't pay attention to the destruction going on in Iraq for two years and then he was forced to act. Compare what the Right says about President Obama and his achievements in 20 months. Can you imagine the reaction if Obama postpone a decision for two years? Look what happened when he deliberated on the strategy in Afghanistan.

That's why one can not believe the American people will learn the disasterous effect Bush's policy had on the U.S. and the world at large. What you see after the mid-terms is the revenge of George W. Bush and his henchmen. It really doesn't mean anything to have a reality-based politics. I believe it's essential but clearly the majority of Americans do not.

One Nation Under A Groove

If I knew George Clinton and P-Funk were going to play, I would have stayed until the end of the One Nation Rally. I stayed two hours and eye-balled the size of the crowd. By the time I left and thousands more were coming, I believe One Nation at least tied the Glenn Beck rally, far-surpassed the early 9-12 Tea Bag rally last year, which Fox News had once estimated at 1 million,even though it wasn't 1/1oth that. 200,000 yesterday would not be unrealistic. Why I think it outdrew Beck was the lack of obese white people sprawling out on the lawn with picnic baskets. This was a more tightly spaced crowd.

Nice sign--"I don't want to take my country back--I want to take it forward." The problem with One Nation was that everyone could spell their signs correctly, somehow spoiling the raw authenticity one can obtain by being illiterate. Some of this has to be blamed on the scores of teachers from the NEA and AFT who showed up.

I even saw the NAACP from Asbury Park, New Jersey. The NAACP and the Urban League came out in force and their speakers emphasized the need to vote in the mid-terms. Remember black and Hispanic voters aren't supposed to show up in congressional races. Whatever the attitude of the American union movement is to the Obama Administration, the unions showed up in full regalia, representing every profession under the sun. The UAW, the Steel Workers, the Communications Workers, the Machinists and Aerospace Workers were all highly visible. Geographically, the preponderance of marchers were from the Northeast and the Midwest but there was a healthy gathering of African Americans from Georgia and South Carolina.

Contrary to conservative tweets during the day, George Soros didn't pay everyone to attend; they paid their own way. This was a problem because the SEIU members from Massachusetts were stranded back in Boston because the busses they hired never showed. Be alert for election miscues in the Bay State this November.

While One Nation was the estranged progressive wing of the Democratic Party, there is another way to look at this gathering. Unlike the teabaggers, this was a rally of organizers. Every one provides a multiplier effect. Richard Trumpka sounded the call to arms very clearly when he outlined the stakes in this election. He kept using the phrase that in 2008 "we laid the foundation" and now the Republicans want to tear it down. He called on all "economic patriots" to vote--nice phrase. It was very clear that the emphasis of the rally was on getting out the vote in an aggressive manner. One can look at the racial, ethnic and gender preference diversity there as a counter-image to the all white appearance of the teabaggers but to me the key difference was that they all represented real life organizations, which can be mobilized. This was part of the great coalition that elected Barack Obama, not the complete number.

Earlier in the week President Obama spoke at the University of Wisconsin. Chuck Todd told the television audience that it was too late for Obama to summon the base. Some said the audience was listless. During the campaign he spoke to 17,000 there, this past week he spoke to 26,000 with more still waiting. People lined up for over a mile just to get in. The crowd was hardly apathetic when President Obama spoke passionately with a hoarse voice.

This event to me was important not because we lament young people not voting in mid-term elections. But the fact that the President of the United States could be received as a rock star on a college campus is significant and a good sign. In my day, if Richard Nixon dared come to campus, someone would be duty bound to try and assassinate him. If you believe these young people are the future of this country,then it is hopeful sign that they even come to hear what the President wants to say. One of the reasons I voted for Barack Obama was I wanted my son to have in his youth at least one President he could respect and admire.

On Thursday I decided to forego the invitation to hear President Obama speak at D.A.R. Hall here in D.C. What a mistake! He gave one of the "whoop-de-doo" speeches Hilary Clinton used to talk about. The President was on fire speaking to the GEN44 group of Democrats, mostly the younger professionals here in D.C.

As I wrote earlier, the idea of mobilizing the Obama surge voters is to give a slight competitive edge to Democrats in November. It's not that the entire base--African-Americans, Hispanics, and young people--come out in 2008 numbers but a certain percentage that would cut into the Republicans mid-term advantage.

So can organization beat a tidal wave of cash from unknown donors? I would hope so. And there are tenative signs that this may be true. The Republicans today admit that there have not wrapped up the House yet because the first string of Democrats they planned on having put away now have "shown resilence". Republicans claim they only have half the seats they need to take over the House. They had planned on creating such a lead on the first tier that they could move quickly to the second tier of Democrats. You might see this second move with the non-profits like Concerned Taxpayers and others laundering money to strange congressional seats all over the map like Cong. DeFazio in Oregon and a few obscure seats in South Carolina and Texas. Republicans look like they will pick up many of their House gains in Michigan, Ohio,and Illinois. For their part, the Democrats are trying to create a firewall in the Northeast. After a meeting with DNC chair Tim Kaine, Congressman Clyburn told the press that the Democrats would keep the House but lose about 20 seats.

The RNC announced yesterday it was going to curtail its GOTV efforts this year. This triggered a Drudge flashing siren in my mind. They did this approximately at the same time in the 2008 process and as a result the GOP GOTV effort was the worse that I had ever seen and probably cost McCain a state or two.

Running silent but deep is David Plouffe with the OFA efforts. He has escalated OFA's effort to train and re-train thousands of volunteers, separate from the efforts by labor and progressive organizations. The several million strong OFA membership list has been sent a pledge card, where you pledge to vote. These people will be receiving calls starting three days out about voting--all the way through election day. From their past experience, this has brought considerable voters to the polls. Whether that helps for my congressman Jim Moran as opposed to Barack Obama, we will have to see. But the contrast in official , structured efforts at GOTV is impressive.

For the next few weeks track the wanderings of one Karl Rove. It was no mistake he was at my son's college this past week since he is carrying money to Rob Portman and John Kasich on the top of the Ohio ticket and trying to solidfy gains for Republicans in contested Ohio districts. He'll be doing that for his billionaire's Boys Club, Crossroads America, until the election. If he parachutes into a state, it also may mean trouble for Republicans.

The vast private money advantage the Republicans have is slightly, but not completely offset by the difference between the take by both parties' campaign arms. For reasons no one can explain the RNC's Michael Steele is off on a 48-state bus tour.

As I wrote before, Republicans need to gain a net plus of 44 seats to take the House. They have conceded five seats and it looks like Democrats are posed to poach a couple more. Still Nate Silver and Charles Cook are holding strong to their predictions of a Republican takeover of the House. Gallup with its last poll predicted truly dire things for Democrats in November. But the Newsweek poll has Democrats up five point in the generic poll and way ahead in the likelyvoter poll. Also Newsweek reports that Americans trust Democrats on almost every issue by a wide margin, except terrorism where they trust Republicans more. They also approve of Obama's "cool" approach to issues by 53% to 38%, which runs counter to the media narrative that Obama has to emote more.

It will all come down to who has the best GOTV effort. If you look at the polls right now,there is still alot of confusion. For instance, Ken Buck, Teabagger running for Senate in Colorado, has an 8pt. lead over Bennett but look closely and Bennett has a lead with registered voters. The same discrepancy shows up in race after race. Arch-criminal Rick Scott has a lead over Alex Sink, unless you check the registered, not likely voters. In short, if Democrats actually come out in good numbers for a mid-term, they win. Be forewarned though, Nate Silver says that if a candidate is trailing by 8-10pts with a month to go, he or she only has a 10 percent chance of winning.

Frank Rich wrote a column in the New York Times that warned that Christine O'Donnell may prove alot of laugh lines but she takes away from the danger posed by Boehner and Mitch McConnell coming close to having their hands on real power. Excellent point. But who can resist a woman whose father played Bozo the Clown? Or said she didn't become Hare Krishna because she liked Italian meatballs too much. Or has a lesbian sister but believes you can eliminate the GAY. And she graduated from all those prestigious schools to boot. Ok. she didn't. But openly lying doesn't seem to count anymore in our political system. Especially, if God told you to run.

A Tip of the Hat to Rachel Maddow, who finally solved the mystery of Carl Palladino. On Friday's show, she examined the graffiti art roots of Carl Palladino's candidacy, citing the pipe-smoking image of Bob found around urban areas in the 1990s. The slogan written in the Bob graffiti was "I'm Mad too, Bob", which is reproduced in Palladino's slogan, "I'm mad too, Carl". Rachel Maddow believes that Carl Palladino is an art project. How else can you explain his riff on Andrew Cuomo having extra-marital affairs and claiming he hasn't? While in full view of the public is a daughter born out of wedlock, when he was married to someone else at that time. I think Rachel's on to something here--Carl Palladino is an art project.

You'll be saddened to learn that John McCain announced today that he wasn't running for President again in 2012. Can you imagine his lingering bitterness from his defeat in 2008? Why would you think anyone would care, let alone support such an idea?

Oh, I forgot--real Christians showed up at the One Nation rally, along with other religions. Maybe they thought that their faith was getting a bad rap on Glenn Beck. Another note from One Nation were the frequent calls not to believe the corporate media, not just Fox News. I thought this was a nice touch. Speaker after speaker pointed out that the media now are almost all for-profit corporations, which will back the economic status quo. Van Jones showed up and made a passionate argument for clean technologies--now that's a radical Black militant idea. You'll remember Glenn Beck claimed he started the Rodney King riots in Los Angeles. Of all the speakers, I liked Marion Edelman's talk on education, which was based on the lessons of Noah's Ark. She had many great lines but one was "Noah's Ark was built by amateurs, the Titanic was built by experts", an allusion to the current debate on education reform.

I'm looking forward to the mid-term elections because they really have put conventional wisom to the test. If Congressman Clyburn is right about the situation in the House, then all the noise, all the money, all the media exposure would simply come down a normal mid-term election. If some seismic changes really are in the offing, then we have major problems facing our political system during a time of immense economic hardship.

But never fear Governor Moonbeam is chugging along, winning his second debate against Queen Meg Whitman. California may reclaim its title as bellwhether of the future.

Bummer Friday

Beautiful weather but the zeitgeist is getting funky.

Dana Milbank doesn't take kindly to Glenn Beck showing up in town. The early videos of his arrival show the short-sleeved munchkin surrounded by security dressed as secret service types and white women reaching out to shake his hand. But Milbank is writing a book about Beck and doesn't think highly of the new messiah. He reminds readers that it has just been over a year since Beck called the first-African-American president a "racist" with a "deep-seated hatred for white people." Beck says that Obama is "moving all of us to slavery". He accused Obama of seeking "reparations" from white America, seeking to "settle old racial scores". This is also a chronic theme of Rush Limbaugh's rantings.

Beck has spoken about "radical black nationalism" in the White House and "Marxist black liberation theology" influencing Obama. He has also determined that the New Black Panthers have "ties to the White House in a myriad of ways" and are part of Obama's "army of thugs". Where do I join? Beck choose the date of his rally because of "divine providence". Like Sharron Angle running for Senate. Like Jan Brewer running for Arizona. Does God now have alzheimer's?

Beck now believes the civil rights movement was distorted by civil rights leaders, who may have known King personally but purposely distorted his ideas. Over the last century, Beck says, "no man has been free,because we've been progressive." He argues the anti-tax conservatives are the "real civil rights movement." Well done, Dana.

Ken Mehlman, the man who ran George W.'s 2004 campaign, has discovered he is gay. This is a man who presided over the Republican Party when it ran anti-gay referenda in every state to boost the turnout and encouraged the passage of DOMA in Congress. He is now saying he was quietly trying to persuade Republicans to go easy on the Gay. It's simply not believable. Now he wants to support the cause of same-sex marriage. He is in a long line of gay conservatives beginning with Roy Cohn, who run the Republican Party. There is a wonderful book there or else a piece for a psychology journal.

Nate "The Great" Silver is making me nervous. Do you remember when he was "poblano" over at the Daily Kos? Nate appeared on Hardball and started talking about "wave" elections and mentioned Speaker Boehner. This coming week, we'll see what Nate has produced.

Chris Van Hollen , who is handling the Democratic House elections, claimed this morning that the Democrats will hold both houses of Congress.

But Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien , all reputable political scientists, have done their preliminary House predictions by running a 1,000 computer simulations. They predict Republicans will take back the House with a majority of 229 seats to 206 for Democrats. They do include all the necessary scholarly caveats. But still...

If Republicans win back the House, they plan to do what I wrote about before--investigate the Obama Administration from soup to nuts. Politico reports today that Republican staffers are already researching the areas of these probes. Of course, a major one will be the DOJ's handling of the so-called New Black Panther voting intimidation case. You see white people are being intimidated now from voting like with ACORN. So we will have several investigations to prove Barack Obama is an African American and to link him to the more ephemera of African American culture.

One of the heroes of New Orleans is back in the news. "Brownie", the former head of FEMA and horse breeder, told the press that President Bush hid how horrible Katrina was from the American people. Brownie is heading to New Orleans to "celebrate" the five-anniversary of the disaster. The crime of the Government's response to Katrina was that FEMA for several consecutive years ran practice sessions on exactly this precise level Hurricane striking this precise city. The plans for this particular disaster were upgraded nearly every year beginning in the Clinton Administration. And yet nothing suggested by these run-throughs was ever carried out on the days it happened or weeks afterward.

Richard Trumpka, the AFL-CIO's President blasted Sarah Palin at a union gathering in Alaska. Not to be outdone, Palin called union leaders "thugs", the new refrain from the Republicans, and said that union members were better off supporting conservatives. Because you know, they would be better off if the auto industry had failed and the rest of their homes would face foreclosure. The good news this year is that all the unions are coordinating to raise their stake in the mid-terms to $100 million. While it can't outgun the some $400 million being pledged by conservative groups, the money comes with people to organize and get out the vote. Apparently, the Democrats' ability this year to run an effective get-out-the-vote campaign has caused Karl Rove to panic and he's scrambling to raise significant funds for a GOTV effort of his own since the RNC's effort is bankrupt.

So far, I've been impressed by how prepared the Democrats have been in blunting GOP attacks. They seem to be playing more offense at this stage than defense and have so far neutralized the negative ads run by Republicans. The Republican candidates provide a target rich environment for the Democrats to hang them by their radical right-wing agendas.

Some of the candidates are truly astonishing for both their character and their ideas. Rick Scott, the Republican candidate for governor of Florida, had the honor of paying a $1.5 billion fine for Medicare fraud by his hospitals. Several candidates openly support banning abortion even in the case of rape and incest. Sharron Angle said that teenage women just have to make lemonade out of lemons. One of the best candidates is running against Russ Feingold. He claims he is a self-made millionaire, who started in business after graduating from high school. Turns out he married a very wealthy woman, was given a department of the family business to run, and also never graduated from high school. Rick Miller in Alaska may have won as a teabagger with Sarah Plain's endorsement and has the most anti-Alaskan campaign of them all. He wants to stop the pork from going to Alaska. They get roughly $2 for every $1 they contribute to the national economy. He could really run on "Vote for Me and You will Die."

The Congressional Budget Office is preparing for a war if Republicans win in November. They announced that any repeal of the Medicare provisions in the healthcare bill will cause about $450 billion in additional deficit. This raises the issue about pay-go rules. For instance, if the Republicans actually want to keep the tax cuts for the rich, Congress this time--unlike last time--has to pay for them. The actual cost of the tax cuts for the rich is roughly twice the cost of the healthcare reform bill for all of America. Now, we know Republicans will not cut defense so the tax cuts for the wealthy have to be paid for by cuts in anything the lower or middle classes might get. If you analyze this, Pat Ryan in his "Blueprint for the Future" actually gave the game away. His plan called for cutting taxes for the wealthy and raising them for everyone else. He also listed entitlement programs that would have to be cut. That's what the end-game of the GOP tax-cuts for the rich actually means. And I believe that's why the GOP leadership is trying to push Ryan off to the side for now. They are afraid that their whole gig will be up.

An idea for Democrats: Make the real cost of the tax-cuts for the rich explicit. They have to be paid for and the rest of America must subsidize the wealthy. It is true that the deficit would increase but I don't think that's how it would play out this time with pay-go. Of course, all the tax cuts, including for the Middle Class, have to be paid for through pay-go rules. So watch this space for what actually goes next year.

Fidel Castro wants you to know that Bin Laden is a bought and paid for CIA agent.

Our anti-corruption effort in Afghanistan seems to have run into a few roadblocks. It seems that all the corrupt Afghan officials that need to be removed are paid CIA agents.

Friday Night Politics at the Last Manatee

Well, President Obama did it now. Tonight he hosted an iftar dinner to celebrate Ramadan, something President Bush did also but this will be forgotten. And he came out in full support of religious freedom, even citing the real Thomas Jefferson as opposed to David Barton's mythical creature, and supported the building of the Islamic Center near--sort of near--Ground Zero. As to be expected, it was an eloquent statement. So let the hysteria continue. Some 100 religious leaders a few days ago came out slamming the Islamophobia surrounding the Ground Zero project. But over 70% of Americans oppose the project, according to a CNN poll. Will this be the attacking rabbit of the Carter years?

Today I listened to the roundtable on the Diane Riehm show where all the news commentators basically said that the situation was dire for Democrats. One reporter was asked by Diane why after all the accomplishments of Barack Obama were journalists so hard on him. The answer was that they simply reflect the public opinion polls. An odd thing for a journalist to confess. The rest of the panelists chimed in that there was a sense in the Spring that the economy was poised to begin a robust recovery and when that didn't happen everyone's mood darkened. One other journalist said that this all comes at a bad time for the Democrats because now is when the opinion of the electorate solidifies. They likened the situation to the mid-term in Reagan's first term when unemployment reached 11.5% and he had cut taxes. Even though people felt money in their pocket, the Republicans lost 28 seats in the House. The commentators said that people have not felt the benefits of Obama's policies yet.

They went on to cite the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll about how Democrats have lost their competitive edge on major issues and that the Democratic Party approval rating is 33%, the lowest since July 2006. What they didn't comment on is that the GOP approval rating was 24%, the lowest ever recorded by pollsters Hart and McInturff. Don't you have to beat something with something? If the Republican Party still existed as a party,I think the panelists would be right. But it doesn't. And that should give some hope to Democrats. In the same poll, the GOP had a huge generic ballot edge in the South--52 to 31% but didn't lead anywhere else in the country. This was an area, the pollsters concluded, was "where you have whiter and older voters". The Republicans, according to this poll, are clearly a Southern Party, no longer a national party, which doesn't bode well for their future.

Now referring to an older post of mine, I wrote that the 2008 election showed that Republican congressional districts had become more Republican and Democratic districts more Democratic. My concern at the time was that we had become a more polarized society politically than ever before. That means the Republican side becomes even more right-wing, as the last 18 months have shown. But does that polarization simply work against Republicans actually gaining significant victories in both the congressional and senator races?

Add to this the other issue of organization. The Republican Party organization is in utter disarray. Witness how the chosen candidates in Nevada, Kentucky, Colorado and even Utah lost to Teabaggers. While the Obama campaign was decentralized, you can't say the Republicans have adopted the same strategy by their competing organizations and money sources. You have internal fighting between the Karl Rove parallel RNC and groups such as the Club of Growth, which Mike Huckabee tags the Club of Greed. The other disadvantage Republicans have is they are at a disadvantage in terms of money. Every time someone like the Chamber of Commerce annouces it will spend some $75 million to elect Republicans, the number is matched within a day by the Democrats.

Whatever happens in the mid-terms, this notion that Obama's popularity is sinking continues to be the most annoying meme in the media. At his first mid-term, Reagan had sunk to a 35% approval rating. President Obama has continued to maintain approximately the same approval rating all year. In the same NBC/Wall Street poll, they were other questions asked about President Obama's likeability, etc, soft questions. But they reflect for me the degree to which he maintains considerable political reserves. When Democrats attacked George W. Bush and pointed to then mediocre approval ratings, he retained enormous percentages in terms of likeability, which held him up until he fell to his low approval ratings in the last two years of his Presidency.

PPP just came out with its periodic 2012 Presidential survey. At this stage, they have Obama at a 47 approval--48 disapproval rating. Sounds bad except when you compare it to all the leading Republican presidential contenders--none of whom reached 40% approval and all had substantial disapproval ratings, some fatally so. In head-to-head contests, President Obama bests every one of them now. So it's really how you compare things. Obama has roughly a 20pt lead in approval rating over any Republican congressional leaders.

Even Hapless Harry Reid in the NBC/Wall Street poll has only a 10% approval rating. He has a slight edge on Afghanistan and Pakistan. Yet, Reid today in Nevada is polling at 47.5% and has a four point edge over Sharron Angle. If he ran against someone normal, he would be toast.

In Colorado, it looked like Republicans this year would easily pick up the state house and a Senate seat. The Democratic candidate looks like he's going to win a landslide because of the lunatic Republicans selected and the renegade candidacy of Tom Tancredo. After a bruising democratic primary, Michael Bennet woke up and found himself against Ken Buck, a loony tune character, on the Republican side.

Yet the West will be tough this year for Democrats. They only have a one point generic lead on the Republicans in congressional races. In Washington state, Patty Murray will again face a well-financed Dino Rossi in a nail-biter. Republican hopeful Chris Dudley running for Oregon Governor seemed competitive but his tax issues and other problems seem to be sabotaging his effort.

Democrats seem to be forfeiting a real chance to take out Senator Burr in North Carolina. The problem Elaine Marshall has is the lack of cash to define Burr. She is a capable candidate with state-wide name recognition. But so far Burr can come home after the Senate break and actually tell voters he is for extending benefits to the uemployed while he filibustered against every attempt in the Senate and voted against extending benefits at every opportunity. It seems to be a Republican trait this year to return to the homes district and tell voters the opposite of what you really did.

Republicans are banking on California as a sign of their success this year. Right now Carly Fiorina, the disgraced CEO of Hewlett-Packard, has opened a 5 point lead against Barbara Boxer. Meg Whitman is a point ahead of Jerry Brown, who still hasn't begun to campaign yet. AFL-CIO chief Richard Trumpka arrived today in California to blast both Republican candidatesas two "clueless CEOs".

Trumpka went on to say," So in the elections for governor and senator, who do Republicans throw at the problem? Two clueless CEOs: Meg Whitman, who was too shady even for Goldman Sachs; and Carly Fiorina, who laid off 30,000 Hewlett-Packard employees, shipped jobs overseas, got fired--with a $20-plus million golden parachute--and was labeled one of the worst CEOs of all time." "How about Carly Fiorina--who calls offshoring jobs "right shoring"? She actually said that."

President Obama is scheduled to make several campaign stops during the August break to shore up Democratic candidates, including stops in Washington and California.

And what about the anti-incumbent fever? We have had more primaries and the number 90% of incumbents re-elected still holds. Yet even during today's Diane Riehm show, the panelists all talked about the anti-incumbent fever sweeping the country.

The White House has distributed a memo done by President Obama's pollster Joel Benenson, which claims the negative public opinion of the Republicans would forestall a "wave" election, which the GOP would need to win back both the House and the Senate. Basically, both parties have the same disapproval rate but the Republican approval rate is the lowest in history. The Republican approval rate has worsened since the last mid-term election in 2006. Benenson argues that Democrats today look about the same as they did in the summers of 1998 and 2002, neither of which were "wave" elections.

One interesting little thing has emerged as people contemplate Tan Man Boehner as Speaker of the House is that even Republicans are circulating the gossip that he tends to cry in his speeches late in the day, which they suggest is caused by his drinking. This is beginning to make the rounds on the internet.

A secret weapon that Democrats still have is the whole tax issue, something they haven't played well yet. In 2008 Obama took the tax issue away from the Republicans and they didn't even know it. When I asked republican strategists about this, they didn't even know what I was talking about. Obama promised tax cuts to everyone earning under $250,000 and he has delivered. But the Democrats seem to step on this message. But now in front of the nation, we have the issue of the Bush tax cuts. Ezra Klein produced a graph for the Washington Post comparing Democratic and Republican tax plans. Everything looked very similar until you reach the graphic about people earning over $1 million a year. The comparison then ends with the Republicans giving these high flyers over $106,000 in tax breaks, a dramatic huge circle distorting the whole graphic. The Democrats should just show this as often as they can.

The CBO also has done a list of all the things one can do to stimulate the economy. The least effective thing on their long list is to give tax breaks to rich people. Since every Republican has gotten this talking point about the Bush tax cuts and appeared on national television arguing it, the Democrats should just wrap it around their necks along with every jobs bill they either opposed or killed.

Then we reach the situation where the Republican Party has come out now as explicitly the party of white, older men. Even the white women campaign against women's rights. have we come to the point where we can coin the term "self-hating woman"? But in the mid-term the White position can be strong. Older white tend to vote more often and they now seem to be the only demographic Republicans actually have a lead. There is a perverse logic of Republicans running in the mid-terms against President Obama, despite the fact he is far and away more popular than any Republican in the land. He only won 43% of the white vote in 2008 and Democrats have not won a majority of white votes since LBJ. Republicans are banking that the Obama voters can not be mobilized to come out in any significant number so that the election really comes down to a fight between white voters. That's why they feel they can play the immigration card even though only 7% believe it is an issue--this is their wedge issue and can move enough voters in a low turnout election in their direction.

The risk of them doing this is considerable in Florida, Texas, Nevada, California and Colorado. The overt anti-Hispanic sentiment of the GOP has galvanized the Latino community,who will likely vote in greater number this year than normal. Even people like Karl Rove and Jeb Bush know that for the long-term prospects of the party this is suicidal.

The other self-destructive tendency of the GOP this year is their frontal assault on Social Security and Medicare. Because people like Pat Ryan are advocating massive restructuring of entitlement programs, older Americans are correct to be anxious about their security in a time of deep uncertainty. Social Security today prevents some 19 million people from slipping into poverty. This year the usual reassurance from Republicans not to touch these programs doesn't feel or seem credible. And this will erode their advantage among older Americans.

The unknown know will be the political efforts of the 99ers, people who have been unemployed beyond the time of their benefits. They are organizing in the thousands and on the internet they are nearing about 1 million. Today they held a rally on Wall Street. Many of these people were reliable Republican voters, who have become disgusted by the party's attack on them as some sort of "welfare queens".

Coffee at the Pink Flamingo

I forgot and you probably did too. The Iraq war is over for us this month. How did the WMDs work out for you? It's MISSION ACCOMPLISHED--sort of.

Well, it didn't take long for the Republicans to adopt my strategy on the tax cuts for the rich. They finally admitted it would deepen the deficit but tax cuts for the rich are really for job creation. Fox News was helpful in pointing out that the elimination of these tax cuts would be Obama declaring class war in the United States and threatening what made America great--the rich? Karl Rove has pivoted and says that the tax cuts for the rich are really aimed at small businesses. Ironic in that the Republicans have fought against every tax break for small businesses since Obama took office. But also, it doesn't really apply because only about 1% of small businesses make a profit of $250,000 a year. The Tax is not on gross receipts. As for the stimulus effect of these tax cuts, the bad news is that reputable think tanks like the Center of Budget and Policy Priorities and the Economic Policy Institute have shown that job creation after the Bush tax cuts was weaker than any other recovery in our history. But why fool around with facts?

Still bitter after all these years, Senator John McCain and his new sidekick Senator Coburn issued a report that found problems with 100 stimulus projects of the thousands. What's worse for McCain is the new Pew Poll that shows that a vast majority of every party prefers their representative to bring government projects to their home district. McCain hasn't brought any and has campaigned against pork barrel spending his whole life. It seems Americans respectfully disagree.

Someone at the Dailykos decided to post the horoscopes of the Republican and Democratic leaders as well as the heads of the congressional campaign committees to ascertain the results of the November elections. Great idea and fun. The Republicans all come out as frustrated, while House Democrats go through tough times but emerge more powerful. Hmmm.

The horoscope may be the best answer yet. Yesterday's Gallup poll had Republicans regaining the generic poll by five--which is a direct reversal of the previous two weeks.

Republican staffers have been informed not to give out their bosses' home district schedules for the recess. Rumor has it that they fear 99ers showing up at townhall meetings. I would love to see a reverse Tea Party on the Republicans.

Richard Trumpka of the AFL-CIO has committed $53 million to the mid-terms to create a firewall against Republican in-roads. He called this year's choice "the cleaning crew versus the wrecking crew".

No one has mentioned this but while Republicans will pick up a number of state houses this fall, Obama may come out the biggest winner. If Democrats (and they have a real shot) win California, New York (done deal), Florida, Ohio and Texas (which I believe), that's 167 electoral votes and Obama is 103 away from re-election.

Meg Whitman officially has spent $99 million so far to buy the state of California. Governor Moonbeam has spent $450,000.

Let's play Senate elections for our summer amusement. Nate Silver has automatic Republican pick-ups in North Dakota, Arkansas, Delaware, and Indiana. Observers point to tight races in Wisconsin with Russ Feingold up for re-election and Washington State with Patty Murray. I think both incumbents will be OK. I think Patty Murray will beat Dino Rossi convincingly. I'm willing to call Florida now for Charlie Crist over Marco Rubio. I also believe that the Democratic nominee in Colorado will inch past the Republican,who will be crazy no matter who wins the nod. While I like Rodney Glassman in Arizona as a candidate--someone to watch, McCain will win again.

So the Democrats are minus 3 at this stage. I believe Democrats can pick up Ohio with Lee Fisher over John Kasich, North Carolina with Elaine Marshall over Burr, Kentucky with Conway over Rand Paul, Louisiana with Charlie Melancon over Diaper Dave Vitter and New Hampshire with David Hodes over one of the teabaggers. That would put Democrats up 2.

Right now Missouri, Pennsylvania and Illinois are too close to call. I can't see Mark Kirk regaining momentum in Illinois with his serial fabrication. In Pennsylvania, the Republicans look certain to take the state house but Pat Toomey seems too extreme for a state that has benefited enormously from the stimlus projects. And Missouri has evolved into one of the craziest political states in recent years that it's anyone's guess. Let's just say out of the three, Democrats lose 1.

Democrats have a lock on West Virginia with Gov Manchin. I like Roxanne Conlin as the Democratic candidate in Iowa. Iowa will elect former Governor Bradstad to the state house. Will this be enough to bring Grassley over the line? His approval rating has slipped to below 50% for the first time in his career.

Right now, Democrats could gain 1 in the Senate. CW would put loses at 4.

The question that hasn't been asked is whether Republicans will change their leadership in both chambers of Congress if they fail to win the majority. Do you want to stick with the policy of "No" through the presidential elections in 2012?

My rule of thumb at this stage of the elections is that Republicans must be polling at least 10 pts ahead to conclude they will win. It's like a reverse generic ballot, where Democrats polling 5 pt leads are actually tied.

Gallup released yesterday a 50 state poll ranking states as political conservative, moderate or liberal. This type of poll has always been circulated by right-wing friends of my as indicating that the country is conservative. But as we saw with David Stockman's blast at Republican eceonomics in the New York Times that traditional "Republican" values, those we associate with "conservative", are not radical and the hard right of today's party. That's why on the other end of the spectrum The Young Turks can claim most Americans are progressive, according to issues. in the future, Gallup should actually dig deeper to establish what values lie beneath "conservative" and "liberal". It would also be interesting to see how "libertarian" turns out.

The most conservative states are Wyoming, Mississippi, Utah, South Dakota, Alabama, North Dakota, Idaho, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Louisiana. So it breaks down to Western libertarianism, Mormonism, southern neo-confederate, Christian wingnuttery, and actually three normal conservative states Nebraska, and the Dakotas.

The top liberal states are D.C.,Rhode Island, Connecticut, Vermont, Massachusetts, Colorado,New York, Oregon, Washington, and New Jersey. So that's African-American, the Yankees, Pacific Northwest, and the cosmopolitan mid-Atlantic states.

Well, how are our family value states doing? Law professors Naomi Cahn and June Carbone have published a new book "Red Families v. Blue Families: Legal Polarization and the Creation of Culture", which examines the family patterns of socially conservative, "pro-family" people and their blue family counterparts. What I found interesting is that their findings mirror what evangelical sociologists have found about their flock. Red states have higher divorce rates and higher teen birth rates,slightly lower abortion rates, and higher out of wedlock births. One interesting fact is that 90% of women in all states use contraception. In fact, about 46% of women who procured abortions hasd not used some form of contraception the previous month so that the authors believe you could half this number with better education and the availability of contraception. Alot of their findings reflect not only differences in attitudes toward families but also a direct relationship to economic well-being and education. Ironically, those who live a more traditional family lifestyle are in blue states and the states with the lowest divorce rates are those ,which allow gay marriage. The evangelical studies go farther into meth addiction, porn use and domestic abuse, which show evangelicals are more dysfunctional than other sectors of society.

Who Let The Dogs Out?

The Facebook group that prays for Obama's death reached 1 million "friends".

The RNC is accusing Obama of not considering any black nominees for the Supreme Court. This has already gone viral. I guess Judge Sears doesn't qualify as black. She's actually a friend of Clarence Thomas so maybe that disqualifies her.

Kris Kobach, the man who drafted the Arizona anti-immigrant law, is running for Secretary of State in Kansas. An old protege of John Ashcroft, who came out and backed the law,Kobach has secured a contract from the state of Arizona to train police in how to recognize illegal immigrants. He also put in the bill that citizens can sue Arizona if the law isn't enforced. His front group is already set up to act as attorneys for the citizens. The C in Conservative stands for cash.

Republicans are going nuts over the law. Even Johnny Reb, Bob McDonnell, the Governor of Virginia, has condemned it. Former Governor Ridge has condemned it. Karl Rove has condemned it because he knows that his 40-year Reich depended on the Ladino vote. Bob Barr has condemned it for its violations of civil liberties. Barry Goldwater's biographer, Lee Edwards over at Heritage claims Barry would have condemned it. Jeb Bush has dropped everything to race up to Washington to lobby for immigration reform. The GOP sees the fastest growing minority in America escaping from their grasp.

A sign of this was Drudge started the morning with a big photo spread of millions of demonstrators and claiming Hispanics would be marking May 1 in 70 cities. Within an hour everything disappeared concerning the Hispanic marches. Los Angeles is reporting they expect the march there to far exceed the 2007 march when they were demanding immigration reform. I'm hoping they are a rousing success and have demonstrators who are carrying arms in the open. That would make the white open carry geezers have a heart attack. Let's see what kind of coverage they get from Fox--same as teabaggers?

The GOP quickly morphed into Flip Wilson and "The Devil Made Me Do it" excuse. John McCain led the pact with Sarah Palin not far behind saying that it was the fault of the Obama Administration and Congress not to enforce the laws that made Arizona to adopt the statute. When pressed on when is the right time to pass immigration reform, Mitch McConnell and John Boehner said it couldn't be done this year. Lindsey Graham, once a supporter of comprehensive reform, claims it can't be done until 2012.

President Obama in Iowa told a townhall meeting what his basic outline is for immigration reform and said that it had to be done with Republican support. He also thought the will wasn't there in Congress. However, today Senator Harry Reid and Charles Schumer indicated they would move forward, even without Republican support.

ARIZONA ICE TEA wants everyone to know they have nothing to do with the state of Arizona. The CEO of the New York-based company claims they are being slaughtered by the Arizona boycott. So buy one of their Arnold Palmers--half lemonade, half ice tea--to rectify the problem.

The Mayor of Phoenix is suing the state because he says the city can not afford to lose another $300 million like they did during the whole flap over Martin Luther King Day. In 2008, Arizona took in $18.5 billion in tourist dollars and even a drop in a percentage of this will severely hurt the state. Mexican tourists contribute a few billion of this.

Texas Republican Debbie Riddle is introducing an identical law in Texas. Tennessee Republicans are doing the same with a birther bill thrown in. Oklahoma legislators said they will not because their 2007 anti-immigrant law cost the state $1.8 billion in revenues.

Shakira and Linda Ronstadt are showing up for a concert in Arizona and Shakira promises to make statements against the law while there. But remember Jan Brewer says she was chosen by God to lead Arizona during this trying time.

A Texas congressman said that Barack Obama was a judgement of God on the United States. So, I guess that means Mike Huckabee is right,"America is a miracle of God's." So Obama must be the blessing. Abraham Lincoln once commented that he didn't worry about whether God was on his side but whether he was on God's side.

Am I good or not? Ben Nelson did admit today he talked to Berkshire Hathaway about their views on the financial reform bill's regulation of derivatives and they said they were against. Ben was just protecting the $6 million I reported yesterday. Kudos to Ezra Klein, who reported what I said in-house here yesterday--the Republicans caved on filibustering the bill because Mitch McConnell wanted to go to the Kentucky Derby and didn't want late night voting to interrupt his plans. And, if you know the Senate, you know that's true. You have to have a real sense of priorities.

How did "Drill, Baby,Drill" turn out? Actually, quite fantastic, the first such off-coast well has been producing 5,000 barrels a day. The only problem is that it's all leaking into the Gulf of Mexico. This has prompted Governor Crist to reverse his position on off-shore drilling; the President to call the governors of all states near the spill and declaring the Administration might put the whole policy on hold.

You know the Right has gone coco-loco when Glenn Beck criticized President George W. Bush for being a "progressive". He also complained about Arizona being criticized for adopting Nazi-like laws, saying this diminished the crimes of Hitler. It seems to me he does that already by likening President Obama to Hitler.

The financial reform debate is actually just heating up. Goldman Sachs and the banks have unloaded millions to be funnelled through some of the front organizations that handled the healthcare reform debate. So, watch for the teabaggers to get their marching orders soon. Frank Luntz' interim memo is to aim at wavering Democrats by saying the bill is bad for them. We'll wait for the second memo when the debate gets in the open.

There are two things in my mind that one should watch--the regulations of derivatives and the consumer protection agency. There will be a full-court press to water these provisions down. And root for Senator Bernie Sanders' amendment to cap credit card rates at 15% like credit unions. As he pointed out three American banks issue two-thirds of all credit cards.

It's nice to see the head of the AFL-CIO Richard Trumpka out and about. Today's he's marching on Wall Street. But Trumpka has been the most visible AFL-CIO chief since Lane Kirkland and George Meany. It's good to see their public presence.

Barack Obama fled the capital to visit with the white folks in Iowa. After rhubarb pie (my favorite) and coffee, he held a townhall meeting to a thunderous reception. During the long presentation, he flagged the next political debate in the country. He warned the audience that we will be forced to make tough decisions in the months and years ahead. He emphasized that people who want government to do things must be aware of what these activities cost. He pointed out that his three year freeze on discretionary spending and some other measures he's taken will pay for everything during his first term, including the stimulus package. But he warned that the structural deficit he inherited will take years to address. He pointed out why the belief you can cut foreign aid simply doesn't touch a drop of our deficit. He emphasized that the deficit was composed of equal parts Social Security, Medicare and the Defense Budget.

Barney Frank is convening his own study on the deficit and explicitly aiming at the Defense Budget. The problem with the military/ terrorism budget is that it has doubled since 1998 and is considerably higher than during the Cold War when we had conventional enemies. Barney Frank is bragging his group is bipartisan but this means he has included the CATO Institute, which proposes cutting defense in half. At least, it's not the House Republican Plan to privatize social security and Medicare.

Doubts have arisen about the Deficit Commission appointed by President Obama because it is composed of Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats and not progressives. Erskine Bowles, a former Clinton official, said the Commission would be going after social security and Medicare like gangbusters. With the exception of Andy Stern, I don't see anyone including military expenditures in the mix. And that would be dreadfully wrong.

The great state of Oklahoma--where the wind...--is being sued for its mandatory sonogram anti-abortion bill by physicians. For the past year, women's rights have taken a beating in the U.S. of A. where dozens of states have been inching to restricting access to abortion and contraceptives. That's why I thought the Iranian police chief who said he would arrest women with suntans might have been from Arizona. Florida just passed yesterday by three votes a bill that would force women, even those raped, to watch an ultrasound of the fetus before agreeing to any abortion procedure. The feminist should mount up for one last ride--against the American Taliban.

But Oklahoma, home of Dr and Senator Tom Coburn, who opposed the healthcare bill, seems to have set the record for budget shortfall this year. As a result, they have dropped to 49 in healthcare--just one step ahead of Haley Barbour.

Tom Tancredo finally discovered the truth. Obama is deliberately hiding his birth certificate to drive conservatives nuts and make them look like they're crazy to the public.