++Sam Wang noted today sharp downticks for Obama because Rasmussen and We Ask American released some polls that show Obama losing strength. Two Rasmussen polls I did not mention were Virginia, where he has Romney at 49 to Obama 48 or +2 and Florida where he has Romney at 49 to Obama's 47 or a +6. Gravis poll of Nevada has Obama at 49 to 48.
++So Sam Wang who admits to dozing off about a half hour into the debate was asked by Kevin Drum to generate his predictions for November. Today, President Obama 319 EV and Romney 219EV.
++Princeton's predictions are:
President: Obama 332EV to Romney 206 EV. Using his method, there is a 68% probability that it is 314EV and 347EV. There is a 95% probability that it is between 282 and 347EVs.
Popular vote: Obama 52.1% and Romney 47.9%.
Senate: 54D/I and 46 Republicans.
68% 53-55 seats D/I 95%--51-56 seats.
++Obama wins the Presidency, Democrats hold the Senate. Sam Wang is now working on the House predictions. If you really are a wonk, you can review his writing this morning on his House methodology.
Showing posts with label Sam Wand and Princeton Consortium Prediction for the Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sam Wand and Princeton Consortium Prediction for the Election. Show all posts
Friday, October 5, 2012
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