Stand By Me*

*Rock classic co-written by --surprise--Carole King.

Just few brief notes on a 100degree Saturday. This is Jim Inhofe's idea of a cold spell.

Yesterday President Obama looked almost bedraggled as he called an impomptu news conference to recite the accomplishments of the last week--Wall Street Reform, Unemployment Extension and a small bill, which would end the Government from paying phony bills and people. The latter will actually save the Government $38 billion a year. No small potatoes. But President Obama clearly felt he had to do this press opportunity because the last several news cycles had been focused on the firing, rehiring and smearing of Ms. Sherrod. So here's the President of the United States begging for recognition of some major accomplishments. I felt bad for him.

By late afternoon, Senator Landrieu threw a tantrum and shamed the Senate into finally passing the bill to provide small businesses loans, claiming these loans are likely to create 1 million jobs and make the Government money. This seems to be a hidden theme for some of the Democratic accomplishments this year--making money for the taxpayers. The TARP program made money, the auto bailout made money, the small business loans make money, the healthcare bill makes money and even the BP disaster made money. When was the last time this ever happened?

Last night I watched Van Jones address the Netroots meeting in Las Vegas. Van Jones chastised liberals and progressives for criticizing President Obama. "This guy volunteered to be the Captain of the Titantic after it hit the iceberg." Nice line. Van Jones made the best presentation yet by an Obama person on the clean energy strategy for transforming our economy. If you get a chance, review the video because it synthesizes the various aspects of energy policy and how it impacts the society at large. You'll also get some idea why Glenn Beck felt he needed to smear him. He is a very inspirational and effective speaker.

This morning President Obama seemed to have his mojo back with his weekly address to the Nation. Here he recounted the essence of the Wall Street Reform bill but added talking points of all the tax cuts this Administration have given the American taxpayer and small businesses. Then he zeroed in on John Boehner's alleged plan, pointing out that all the laws Boehner and the Republicans want to repeal contain all these tax cuts and will even deepen the deficit. In short, he called out the Republicans on actually wanting to increase taxes and the deficit. He is beginning to sharpen the Demmocrats' approach to the mid-terms.

In mid-morning Nancy Pelosi gave a strong defense of the House Democrats' record, which, in my opinion, has passed more "progressive" legislation in a short time than any other Congress. So Speaker Pelosi was in good shape before the Netroots. Then she switched and introduced a video feed from President Obama, which was considered a surprise. The nice part of the feed was when he hit the line about accomplishments, he cut to a video insert of Rachel Maddow just listing act after act after act, and then he concluded his address. As Rachel Maddow said, no one has done so much for the country since the days when alcohol was illegal. While he admitted change has not come as fast as he would even have liked, he promised more and warned that the country can not be allowed to go backward.

One small fact that no one has been mentioning and I completely forget. The bulk of American forces will really be gone from Iraq in August as President Obama promised in his campaign. Only he has mentioned this while no one in the press has even made a peep about it.

Another little note in the money-making territory. Nancy Pelosi mentioned in her speech a manufacturing and raw resource bill--in typical congressional fashion. Not to make it complicated, this little bill creates over 100,000 jobs and the GOP had tried to block it. It's this type of thing the Democrats have to make plain in words that the average citizen can understand.

The real bad news is that unemployment will remain at 9% through 2012, which makes the President vulnerable to demagoguery. The Bookings Institute this past week released a report on why unemployment will remain at these levels for the foreseeable future unless we transform the basis of our economy. Here I again urge you to listen to Van Jones, who outlines how that transformation is envisioned by President Obama. If the Democrats could speak as plainly about this as he, it would serve them well.

As Joe Biden told a fund-raiser in South Carolina, the heavy lifting is done and the Big Building Blocks are in place. Now is the time to explain this to the American voter.

There is a sense that the Democrats are more organized and getting their acts together just in time for the election. The question for Republicans is whether they peaked too soon and whether they have anything to offer other than a protest vote against the President. Charlie Cook , who has been beating the drums for a Republican takeover of the House, today ran a piece called "Adding Up The Democratic Math". Cook decided that he owed equal time to the Democrats.

He says that Democrats feel they will pick up 4 Republicans seats, with a chance at 8. Cook gives them the 4, which would mean the Republicans would need 43 just to get to a 218-217 control of the House. Of the 16 most vulnerable Democrats, the Democrats believe they would lose 8, which means they are down only 4 at that point. Now 35 Democrats would have to lose. Several dozen threatened incumbents have a massive financial edge over the Republicans, who can't make up the difference in time for the elections. The vulnerable incumbents can count on television and radio ads where the opponents can't. He cites several cases where Republicans are broke. In terms of organization, the DCCC is 14-3 in special elections, which Cook says demonstrates they are professionals. This tracks with what I wrote on Republicans yesterday. Their organization is fractured and ineffective and their finances are scattered and so far under the Democrats. The New York Times wrote today that the Democrats have already made a $25 million television buy for near election day.

You get the sense that even though he has been battered and bruised, President Obama has grit and still has energy. From the recent forays into the campaign mode, you also have a sense that Democrats have a sense about what they are doing. On the other side, you really sense alot of lazy bowhards, repeating the same lines about Democrats we have heard since 1980. Mark Pence tried to convince everyone that we are about to have the largest tax increase in history. Only if the Republicans filibuster tax cuts for the middle class. I got the sense the Democrats are not going to allow this nonsense to happen. The real sense I get from the Republicans is that they are truly brain dead and so intellectually lazy they don't recognize it. They are totally dependent now on the hate groups and the Right-wing echochamber for their electoral success. Given the recent polls showing independents basically splitting their vote, compared to earlier this year, this strategy seems to be backfiring. Then you have to wonder how Michele Bachman saying that all Republicans are going to do after the election is investigate the Obama administration will play with the average voter. Do people have fond memories of the circus surrounding the Clinton investigations? I would think and hope not.

Tom Tancredo provided the comic relief yesterday when he penned an op-ed for the Washington Times calling for President Obama's impeachment because he is more dangerous to this country than Al Qaeda. Even Fox News in their interview with him said, "You have to be kidding." But then the woman interviewer hadn't watched Glenn Beck declare the day Wall Street Reform passed, "was the day the American Republic died." Beck obviously watches Keith Olbermann because he now has taken to throwing papers at the camera--this time they were blank papers, which he pretended were the text of the bill. And this morning I received a new article from an extreme rightwing person calling for Obama's resignation yet again for taking the country to progressive socialism. I guess that's different from regressive socialism.

A Break from the Home Ken Russell Film Festival

Barack Obama did fulfill another campaign pledge. He made the application for Federal Student Aid simpler as he promised. I just finished this year's; last year's was worse than doing my taxes. But as I told my son, the prospects are not good. At least this year's didn't have a Family Contribution Number like last's. I would owe him his college education and a new car if we went by that.

Next up are the taxes. Hopefully, I could gain a few thousand with the largest tax cut given the middle class in history. That's the one all Republicans voted against.

The Tsunami is about to hit Hawaii and an emergency alert has been sounded. Hopefully, people will listen to the local authorities and stay out of the way. The ocean is scheduled to roll one mile in land. But what will happen to Obama's birth certificate now?

Van Jones, the former Green Jobs Tsar, received a NAACP image award last night. His is actually an interesting story of how someone evolves from a militant to someone interested in creating jobs for his community. After Glenn Beck accused him of being a Communist and a 9/11er, both not true, he resigned from the Obama administration. His speech applauded Obama for agreeing to be the Captain of the Titanic after we struck the iceberg. And we still haven't sunk, he joked. And he called out Glenn Beck saying he loved him and that Beck can't stop him from expressing that love. It was well done. Van Jones now has joined a Washington think-tank.

Newt Gingrich has re-surfaced. He claims that Obama is trying to "mug" the American people (nice code words "Newt") and is acting like Hugo Chavez by embracing majoritarianism. Newt's certainly a senior citizen and now rich enough to qualify for the GOP sweepstakes. He's also a Southerner, the base of the Party now, and a racist. So he has a good shot. Not really. There is still alot of bad blood around in conservative circles about Newt's womanizing and how he blew his chance as House speaker.

Some blogger pointed out that Newt's previous charge that Obama was like the German Social Democrats ran against the right's charge Obama was Hitler. This guy pointed out that the German Social Democrats formed a resistance to Hitler. Spoil Sport.

You would think the Houston wealthy would be pouring funds into the GOP coffers. Turns out that Houston money is actually pouring into the Democratic Congressional funds. They're probably banking on getting refugee status when Perry secedes from the union. This is actually a state to watch this year because the Democrats are actually going to wage a strong campaign for the state house.

Snopes.com has a new one about the right-wing e-mail allegedly going around by Lee Ioccoca lambasting Obama. The entire text was taken from his memoirs and it was his litany of grievances about George W. Now the right has re-written sections and are circulating it against Obama. But what he said about Bush was devastating. I get these e-mails daily. The last was one how Obama is the Manchurian candidate and no one ever knew what he did at Columbia. Then it cites known Columbia graduates allegedly saying they never saw him on campus or heard about him. Of course, all the famous names listed are made up and never said anything of the sort.

By this afternoon, there had been no follow-up discussions by either the Senate or House Republicans with Obama about healthcare reform. In fact, Mitch McConnell after the summit called the GOP stance "gold" for the 2010 elections. Don't expect anything from them. They believe their policy of "No" will bring them back.

I don't know where the triumphalism of the GOP comes from. Besides normal congressional losses by the Democrats, this supposed tsunami comes from a party that still has approval ratings below water. One can pick and choose what Obama numbers you want but all the GOP leaders rate at least 50% lower in approval ratings and the congressional GOP has slipped up a point or two to a little over 20% approval. Boehner himself has an approval rating half of Pelosi's, while Mitch McConnell is still about ten behind Reid, who is the Democrat with the lowest. They are banking on the public's disdain for Congress to sweep them back into power. But a majority of Americans blame the GOP for obstructing any progress. We'll watch as the year goes on but I'm puzzled. The GOP also has big troubles with Hip-Hop Steele, who has been spending money like water, giving Democrats an enormous financial lead at this stage. He must think the corporations are going to come roaring in but if they don't, the GOP will be at an enormous disadvantage financially.

Marco Rubio, the darling of the Right, has been using the GOP's American Express card like Meghan McCain. This guy is charging all his personal expenses to the local party and it's just beginning to break as an issue in Florida.

The Starve the Beast syndrome is permeating the GOP. But one of the largest causes of our national deficit were the Bush tax-cuts to the rich, which are double the cost of the entire health reform bill. Small government Republicans--all of tham have converted from big government conservatives--the doctrine of Bill Kristol--will run into brickwalls on wanting to cut any federal funding. John McCain claims his opposition now to Obama's deficit commission was that it will probably recommend raising taxes and he wanted one that would cut taxes more. But then John has 14 homes and a wife who owns the state of Arizona so he doesn't care.

The corporate media is great. They never question the GOP talking points. Obama is going to "ram through healthcare by reconciliation". What people don't say in the media is that health reform has passed the Senate with 60 votes and the House by large margins and that now you reconcile the bills from both houses of Congress, which is what you do with anything having to do with budget expenses. But the beltway will be the last to know. What Obama has to make sure is that key provisions take effect this year and the next and not have the whole thing wait until 2014 since the GOP will revert to their talks about death panels and killing grandma.

Obama does have a real problem when it comes to the 192 detainees remaining in Gitmo. Congress is trying to whip up opposition to court trials for these men despite testimony of Eric Holder and Bob Gates to the contrary. Obama needs to convene a bipartisan team of real national security lawyers--not the amateurs from the last Administration--to develop ways to deal with the situation of so many detainees being held and who can not be tried because either we tortured them or we never kept appropriates files on their cases. I've written before how the whole Gitmo situation was a mess when the new Administration took over with no complete case files. Having lived through the Algerian situation where they ended up with thousands of detainees without any procedure to deal with them, I know this is a major issue, particularly in a country that still hopes to abide by the rule of law. I would just release all the Uighurs and then transfer everyone to the Navy Brig in Charlestown, South Carolina. Gitmo would be closed and then the real work can begin on developing real procedures for the remaining detainees.

Labor Day Thoughts

Would anyone have objected if Bill Cosby were to speak to the American schoolchildren? Responding to the kerfuffle about President Obama's speech, Education Secretary Arne Duncan pointed to the amazing 30% dropout rates of America's high school students as maybe one of the reasons the President wants to deliver the speech. Combined with the growing number of college dropouts, this is a dangerous sign of a country who has to compete globally.

The great Nate Silver over at www.fivethirtyeight.com commented on the growing Republican demographic of angry seniors. While a long term detriment to the GOP's chances on a national level, it is a benefit for the 2010, since seniors tend to vote in higher percentages than other groups. Will this see a Republican wave as Washington pundits predict, over at the Dailykos, there was a look at all the by-elections to date and Republican have not fared well, even when they tried to nationaliz the election by tying the Democrat to Obama's health care plan or to gay marriage. That's why I think the governors' elections in New Jersey and Virginia will constitute a false dawn for Republicans. At this writing both Republicans are leading in the polls but are now drawing flak for past deeds and actions. Even if victorious, it's going to be hard to justify any national trend.

I happen to subcribe to the Bill Clinton theory that if health reform is passed, President Obama's approval ratings will climb and the Democrats might dodge a bullet in 2010 elections. It's hard to see what a Republican vote would accomplish except to re-enforce the party's message of "No". If the elections go as the past, the President's party should lose between 15-20 seats in the House. That still will not be enough to fulfill Newt Gingrich's Dream Number 2 of replaying 1994.

Look to see Harold Koh as the leading contender for the next slot on the Supreme Court when Stevens retires. The former Dean of Yale Law School and a defender of human rights globally, he will draw the fire of the right as he has recently. Koh is a very decent and very likeable man and accomplished man but that won't stop anyone.

Glenn Beck tasting blood over the resignation of Van Jones wants to go after Cass Sunstein, the former law professor from the University of Chicago and friend of Barack Obama. Dr. Sunstein is a very peculiar target for Beck. During the Democratic primaries, Barack Obama disappointed his supporters for his support of the FISA bill. Sunstein gave out interviews on why Obama did this. In the interview, he recalled that during all the Bush maneuverings on civil liberties Obama consulted him and asked him to lay out the soundest legal arguments one could make in defense of the Bush actions so he understood them. It seems to me that someone who could actually make these arguments--even if he didn't support them--is hardly material for attack. In particular, Beck wants to expose Sunstein's writings that concern the possibility of using organs from the deceased without a family's consent. A theoretical article about a theoretical situation--something professors are apt to do. But it would fit into the death panel-death book-euthanasia themes that are so popular among the Beck audience. I can see him now--Obama-Sunstein-Chicago-Ezekial Emmanuel--Socialism.

Keith Olbermann seems to have sensed that Glenn Beck is no longer the joke he enjoyed while explaining the symbolism of Rockefeller Center. He has put out a request on his Daily Kos blog for all leads, tips, informants on Mr. Beck's past and present. I hope he comes up with some good stuff.

Van Jones wounded himself with signing the 9/11 petition. However, I found his tape about Columbine truthful and interesting. He said that only white boys shoot up schools, while black boys don't. Since I can't find anything that disputes this, it actually is a subject worthy of analysis. Naturally, this tape was to show how racist he was but I found it disturbingly accurate.

The NAACP criticized President Obama for letting Van Jones go because of criticism from the right. The Washington Post, the company newspaper, said that this showed the problem of vetting in the Administration. Unfortunately, it reminds me of the loss when Tom Daschle could not make it as Health Secretary, a blow to the health care plan. Van Jones had a compelling personal history that led him naturally to the place of being a Czar for Green Jobs.

Old Governor Sunbeam--California's Attorney-General Jerry Brown--has opened up an investigation into the abuse of health insurance companies who demand employees attend townhall meetings to voice talking points against reform. Brown said that, while this practice may be legal in other states, it is not in the state of California and represents a specific abuse of workers' rights, according to the statutes. Well done. The insurance industry has ordered employees out in every state, armed with talking points created by their lobbyists. Some news reports put this figure at 47,000 people placed in these various townhall meetings.

The oil companies thought this astro-turfing ideas is so great that they are now mobilizing protests against the Cap-and-Trade bill before Congress. This is a fantastic moment in our democracy--American corporations are organizing street protests--what a concept?! Billionaires for Weathfare--one of more favorite protest groups--should appear at these protests with a new chant,"We all want to shop at the Company Store!"

My friends in the Natural Gas industry constantly complain about President Obama, mostly I think because they are all from Texas. But underneath the radar, it has been the Coal Industry lobby on the Hill blocking the expansion of natural gas, which is cheap, plentiful and clean.

On the book front, I received notice from Amazon that Bill Burroughs' Evil River will not be published this September. Now the due date is September 2010. That means four years since I first ordered it. Now, Burroughs has been dead for years, the manuscript has been in the hands of the publisher for at least five years. Certainly, there is an editor around by now.

The one book I look forward to is Ralph Ellison's Three Days Before the Shooting about the assassination of a biracial Southern politician who passed as white but was raised by a black family. But with the current climate of hate rhetoric against President Obama,I'm not so sure I'll be as receptive to it as I might be.

The stupid award goes to Hank Williams, the descendent of the great Hank Williams, who proclaimed that "We all know that President Obama is only President because of the electoral college. The electoral college is the problem." Maybe, he's President for receiving the largest amount of popular votes in American history. Or, maybe not.

While Washington braces for Glenn Beck's 9/12 project, some of us are anticipating the 9/9/09 project--the release of all the remastered Beatles albums. I'm usually skeptical about these re-issues of the classics as some new money making proposition. But, the exercise looks like it might actually contribute something to finally obtaining the "real sound" of the Beatles. I'll report in due time.