Another Cup of Coffee Before I Go

++My last few blogs show the Obama campaign is in pretty good condition unless it is outspent in a ratio of 5 to 1 or above and voter suppression turns into a major problem. Financial analysts agree that with the stock market at the current level history tends toward Obama but they also warn that if there is any sell-off or profit-taking around September or October he would have problems. So watch for this to happen in time to influence the election.

++The game for the GOP is to have a controlled electorate and through attack ads and tightening up voter registration and early voting to re-produce as much of the 2010 as possible. They can't stand the 2008 turnout because it showed greater participation by the young, Latinos and African-Americans.

++In the next couple of weeks keep your eyes on little changes in Swing States. For instance, Ohio was the Florida of 2004, where minorities were suppressed kicking the state to George W. Bush. Besides removing the two Democratic electoral commissioners yesterday. The Republican official in charge of the election said today "We should;t accommodate the black voter" referring to his ban on weekend voting, which drew the most African-Americans in areas around Cleveland. Ohio remains the absolute must for the Romney-Ryan ticket. No Ohio, no win, period.

++Peter Bergen, one of the world's leading experts on bin Laden and Al Qaeda, wrote a lengthy analysis of the new Swiftboating ad and eviscerated its main charges that President Obama leaked details of the operation before bin Laden was confirmed in Pakistan. Apparently, the secret was kept for over a year as the operation was planned. It is worth a read at CNN.com.

++The last two days have seen a new tactic by the GOP. They accuse Obama of not spending enough to get the economy out of the Depression--actually true but the GOP prevented him from enacting his JObs Bill. They also claim that his Healthcare Reform failed because it left over 30 million uninsured. True again but their proposal would have led to even more uninsured leaving about 48 million uninsured.

++Ed Gillespie tried to finesse his way out of the Romney Medicare problem by claiming he would ensure solvency by raising the age of eligibility. 

++The AP is pounding the drums on Social Security claiming again it is going bankrupt. Refer to Bernie Sanders and my past posts about how Social Security can last as long as the country wants it by a minimal of tinkering.

++Willard Romney said he would release his 2011 taxes on October 15th adding new meaning to the October surprise. This time he has instructed his accountant to pay more?

The Vulture-Voucher Ticket's First Week

This was a wild week. I sat through a World War II veteran in Ohio, who is a registered Republican,rant against the pick of Paul Ryan and against GOP obstructionism, particularly from the Ohio delegation. "If all they wanted to do for four years was defeat Barack Obama, then why did they even stay in Washington?"

I was spared the endless ads while out in Ohio. Maybe they were on other channels . The GOP is outspending the Dems in swing states three to one in television ads. President Obama told his campaign donors that he can win up until the GOP outspends him 5 to 1 or 10 to 1. That is the difference he thinks exists between organization and spending. He expressed confidence in his organization and their get out the vote campaign.

The Romney campaign had expected a bump of 5 its with their vice presidential pick. The verdict is in--it was a five point bump for President Obama. Nate Silver was more circumspect saying that the Ryan pick may have meant a one point plus for Romney. Next up will be the convention. The Romney campaign expects an 11-point bounce. 

There was a lot of talk about various states becoming swing states or not. CNN and others are saying Wisconsin may be a swing states even though the latest polls show Obama holding about a 4 point lead--yes, less than 2008. But none of this gossip has been predicated on Romney taking a lead in the state. It is always that Obama's lead is not as large as it might have been. Romney still seems stuck at 191, and Obama bounces from 270 to 330 on a daily basis. Today I actually saw a map with Romney at 272 and Obama at 266--this would be the largest margin of victory for Romney imaginable. But there is nothing in the real world which indicates he s even close to this.

Obama spent this week on his small state strategy for reaching 270. He campaigned in Iowa and New Hampshire. Obama delighted Iowans by his quaffing beer with the natives while the Washington Post was horrified. He also lambasted Romney for his opposition to wind power tax credits, which accounts for 7,000 jobs in the state. Republican Senator Grassley said he felt he had been stabbed in the back by Romney since he was the main architect for wind power credits. President Obama also announced drought relief and pounded Congress for not passing the farm bill, which was being blocked by none other than the VP pick Paul Ryan.

President Obama also released an ad over Paul Ryan's very anti-woman record and his opposition to abortion under any circumstances, birth control and Planned Parenthood as well as against Equal Pay for Equal Work. The ad uses the most effective speech by President Obama delivered in Colorado on the issue of the women's reproductive health.

The Vulture-Voucher campaign got off to a rocky start. It is rumored that the two will now campaign together because separately they have bombed. With unemployment rising in 44 states, Romney was mired in his tax problem--which will not go away--and trying to explain how he would restore Obama's "cuts" from Medicare but he didn't explain how the Medicare Trust would be bankrupt by the end of his term and the program would cease to exist if he did restore the payoffs to insurance company and not cut the waste.

Paul Ryan tried to explain that Obama really was the one who would raise middle class taxes even though his ticket would cost the average American about $2,000 more per year. Paul Ryan campaigned today in the largest adult residence complex in Florida with his mother who claimed his son would never hurt seniors even though his cuts to Medicaid would hurt all seniors in assisted living residents now not later. Ryan boasted how Medicare helped his grandmother who probably is dead by now. Paul Ryan said that Obama's Medicare would ration care for seniors and be "death panels". It's good to see the old standby used.

Howard Dean appeared on MSNBC and said that the GOP could not gain credence by suggesting Democrats would destroy Medicare. He likened the attack to Soviet propaganda techniques which repeated lies over and over again. But what Howard didn't mention was how like the Communist Party the Republicans have become by basically campaigning on exactly the same things as George W. Bush.

If you listen to the Republican speeches this past week, you will notice that what details you heard mirror the GOP talking points during George W without change. The Romney campaign told reporters that if they revealed specifics of their plans they would lose. So, Voter, assume the worst.

Mention of this week can not escape the Swiftboat Ad attacking President Obama over the bin Laden ad. The reason Swiftboat ads attacking John Kerry's military record worked was that he did not respond because he felt they were absurd and that no one remembered his military service. The producer of this 22 minute film is a self-proclaimed Birther who believes President Obama is a socialist and a son of an American Communist. He also is based here in Alexandria and in full disclosure I know two of the participants in this parade. The idea is that President Obama weakened national security by leaking details of the mission --after it happened--and that such leaks could jeopardize missions in the future--sort of. The ad couldn't really make the direct connections but tried. But America killed bin Laden , not President Obama.

Also in the pubic interest, another right-wing group has produced a clip alleging that Barack Obama, Sr. hid an elicit affair between Ann Dunham and the American Communist and also that Ann Dunham posed for S& M photos ala Bette Page. 

And for your birther party, Pat Boone is going to host a gala Birther event in Arizona with Sheriff Arapaio.

The difference between this year and 2008 is that at least John McCain would slap down the nuts who claimed President Obama was a Muslim or that he was born in Kenya. Romney, whose religion claims blacks are the People of Ham, allows this insanity to breed because he hopes it will mobilize his voters.

Leftwing blogs are concerned that Romney acts like he really doesn't have to run a campaign because the election is rigged. This was a concern from 2008, which I personally share. In 2008, with the collapse of the economy and the bad odor of 2000 and 2004 still lingering, states went overboard to accommodate voters through early voting and easier ways to register. Democratic Lt. Governors ensured fairness in states that had been tarnished by allegations of voter suppression in the past. This year Republican Governors in Pennsylvania, Ohio,Virginia and Florida are making every effort to suppress voters, thinking it will affect minorities and the young the most. Florida has lost in court on its plans to restrict voting. Ohio's Republican Secretary of State has threatened to fire Democratic election officials who will not implement the new law. In Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia Tribune said that at this stage the voter ID law will not effect the result of the election but if it is perceived as effecting the results this will mobilize even more voters.

++President Obama has  silent majority of 57-23% in those not going to vote. As we get nearer the election, polls will start to benefit the GOP when they are "likely voters". Obama's chances hinge on a vigorous get out the vote campaign and tapping this silent majority.

D.C. Comics

So what's doin' on the Hill today. The House will be debating the critical issue of the qualifying standards for the America's Cup. This was after the grueling debate they held on honoring baseball last week. Speaker Boehner told a press conference yesterday that he was focused on Jobs. The reporters laughed. No one in town believes any of the Republican congresscritters want to create a single job or maybe they wouold like to preserve their own.

Today Bishop Willard Romney will be speaking to the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity about his economic policy programs. Earlier this week, he said he was only interested in tax cuts for the middle class. But for Willard that definition is fungible. It refers to the middle rich. And, oh well, the mega rich. Willard wants to eliminate the estate tax, which will provide his hosts--the Koch brothers--with a nice $8.5 billion bonus for their efforts.

We are less than a year away from the 2012 presidential elections. Nate "the Great" Silver calls it 50/50 for Obama's chances. Gallup has Romney 1 point ahead. And other polls show Obama losing a number of states he turned in 2008 but eecking out an electoral victory.

But the carnival show is on the Republican side. Six women now have come forth to accuse Herman Cain of sexual harassment. The betting line projects 9 in total. Outsiders say the man is cooked but his approval rating just soars as every new charge comes forth. It is a fascinating study in masochism to see the Republican base become more attached to a former lobbyist and pizza parlor owner as flaw after flaw gets exposed. Incredibly, the majority of Republicans in Iowa actually believe that his 9-9-9 plan would benefit them. This is especially true of those earning less than $50,000. All economists say that they will pay several thousand more dollars in taxes. But the will to believe is strong.

Herman Cain, who really is the first virtual candidate in American polictical history, has the lead in Iowa and South Carolina. All this, despite the revelations about his days as chief lobbyists for the Restaurant Association, and the glaring fact he doesn't have an organization or a bank rivalling Perry and Romney.

Perry meanwhile denies he was drunk or high in New Hampshire. The audience has been enlisted to testify to the Boston Globe that Perry was just exuberant. There are really political commentators saying that Perry is being brilliant by pretending he's dumb.

Flashback to 2008, even the sorry field of GOP candidates then debated real issues. Do you remember how they thought health insurance reform was important? Or how about the debate on cap and trade and global warming? Today, it is a fallow field with no ideas about anything. Notice how they don't even mention the debt? It's Obama's debt but once we get in--well, the hell with it.

Some observers believe if the GOP takes the White House then they will endorse infrastructure investment and other job creating programs. It's just they want to force Obama out the door. If they voted for Obama's jobs creation program now, then the unemployment rate would be 7% at election time, lower than when he came in. So that's what they are banking on. But I happen to believe they will not embark on any job-creation programs if they take control. I think they will embark on the final looting of America by transferring again huge amounts of wealth to the top 1%. And they will systematically destroy by attrition and cuts all that remains of the social safety net. All of this solely in the name of ideology.

What is so fascinating to watch here in D.C. is how oblivious the town is to the 99er Movement and its growing strength around the country. Conservatives have tried to put down the movement as another hippie protest and Fox News is claiming it has been organized by ACORN. But the reality is that it is growing because the corporations, the banks and their enablers have push the envelope to the point of breaking. When millions of people in a society feel that the game is stacked against them there is pushback. How effective will it be? I don't know. But there is a real threat that our operating economy will actually become totally divorced from our population at large. This could generate a whole new energy in the country, which would have unexpected consequences.

I've lamented the efforts since the 2010 elections to suppress voter turnouts by focusing on minorities and the young. The progress that has been made by making voting easier by 2008 has been dramatically reversed on purpose. If the electorate can be contained, it is believed you can manipulate the results better. This year the Republicans are banking on this. A close election with voter suppression would favor them.

But I've always told foreign democracy movements that rigged elections also provide opportunities. If the winner of a rigged election believes they have a mandate to push an ideological agenda without consultation of the opposition or the people, there will be a backlash that will unravel their control over the system. We actually saw this with the 2008 election. The Bush-Cheney Administration had come to power under dubious circumstances in 2000 and their re-election was clouded by voter manipulation in Ohio. There was actually perceived on a bipartisan basis the need to actually have a clean election in 2008 because of the noxious fumes left by the last two national elections.

Since then the Republican Party has become radicalized in a way unique in my lifetime so much so that elections are merely a formality but nothing of substantive meaning. As evidenced by their behavior since 2008, the Party has narrowed its interest to serve the top .3% of the population. And this is becoming abundantly clear to independents and Democrats.

This overt and very public embrace of economic inequality has triggered the current reaction of the 99er Movement or Occupy Wall Street Movement. What is now being placed at the center of the political debate is the issue of economic democracy. People are asking the uncomfortable questions about our economic system. So far the ideas from this movement are rather modest--a small fee on stock trades, the end of the Bush era tax cuts, and the slight tax hike on those making $1 million or more a year.

In some ways Mitt Romney is right if unemployment were at 6%, these protests may not have happened. What the Mormon Bishop doesn't say is that American corporations are holding over $2 trillion in cash reservers and are not creating jobs and that the top corporations for the last five years have paid no federal income taxes. In fact, they got massive tax refunds. All the while profits have gone through the roof. The Dow still is nearly 4,500 pts higher under Obama than during Bush's last days. This discrepancy between the health of our financial and corporate world and the population at large sparked the 99er Movement.

There will absolutely be nothing accomplished in the American Congress this year. They might as well go home. There is virtually no interest in ameliorating the problem of the American people. So we will watch to see how the movements continue to grow.