Sam Wang Thinks Nate Could Be Off

++Nate Silver at 538 says that the GOP now has a 60% chance of winning the Senate, bringing his estimate to 52 Republicans-48 Democrats.

++Sam Wang at Princeton explains that this is statistical way of saying "I don't know yet". Wang explains Silver's method and his averaging percentages. 

++Wang points to the several races where Silver has the odds at 50-50. Louisiana, North Carolina and Arkansas he has it less than that. Wang says a coin toss can come up Democratic. He points to Alaska where pundits favor the GOP but that the only poll out has Begich in a double digit lead. Wang's point is that of the truly contested races the Democrats only have to win a few to keep the Senate.

++Wang's header has the Senate at 50-50 right now. 

++But there is good news emerging from the Nate Silvers of the world. There really doesn't seem to be the makings of a wave election like in 2006 and 2010. But Silver warns that such elections break late in the campaign season.