WASHINGTON POST/ABC POLL

Clinton 47%
Trump  43%
Johnson  5%

WASH. POST/ABC POLL

++Clinton 46%

   Trump  44%

   Johnson  5%

   Stein      1%

++Two-way Likely Voters:

   Clinton 49%

   Trump  47%

++Among whites: Trump 53% Clinton 37%

   Among non-whites: Clinton 69% Trump 19%.

++White College Educated Women:

Clinton 57%, Trump 32%.

++Note Trump doing worse with white voters than Romney.

++Hillary has a good gender gap but not enough.

WASHINGTON POST/ABC POLL

++Hillary Clinton has the lead on virtually every issue in this campaign from the economy, terrorism to taxes and immigration.

++58% of Americans expect Hillary Clinton  to win;18% to win easily. 90% of Clinton supporters believe she will win.

++In face to face: Clinton 51% to Trump 43% among likely voters. 

++In 4 way, Clinton 46%, Trump 41%,Johnson 9%, Stein 2%.

++Among registered voters: Hillary Clinton 45%--Donald Trump 35%. 

++So the lead in Hillary by 5%--but the rest of the poll indicates deep Clinton support. The Post also mentioned that Clinton has an enormous ground game and that Trump is just beginning to organize his.

Obama's Approval Ratings Collapse--All Is Lost

So a funny thing happened yesterday, Gallup had President Obama at 49%,tending up from several days at 48%. The New York Times/CBS poll has President Obama hit all-time lows at 41%,just after another positive jobs report. The Washington Post/ABC poll has President Obama underwater again at about 45% but he still beats Romney. The Washington Post poll has women trending back to the GOP because, I guess, they love the idea of transvaginal probes. But their congressional poll shows just the opposite. Democrats being preferred to the GOP and women migrating their way. So what gives?

Rather than saying that high energy prices made Obama's approval ratings collapse overnight like the media narrative claims, let's go for a simple answer. The CBS/NYT poll cut off 4% of Democrats from their last poll and oversampled Republicans. The Washington Post poll was weighted by giving the GOP 7 points. A slight problem--the GOP did not grow within a month that significantly. Right now, the United States is about 43% Democratic,31% Republican and 24%, those pesky and fickle independents.

Since polls are snapshots in time, they can be snapshots that are out of focus. Another way to look at it is that the media narrative will make this presidential election a horse-race to the very end, just like in 2008. This acts as an economic stimulus for the networks. But until Nate the Great and others weigh in, take Obama's collapse with a grain of salt.

It does seem that the GOP has hit a chord by talking about gas prices since they have nothing to resonate with anyone who isn't wealthy. On gas prices, remember 58 cents on the gallon is pure speculation.

A Bloomberg poll today shows that 38% versus 36% of Americans believe they are better off since Obama became President, which is actually a first.

Another poll is out that shows 40% of Americans believe the U.S. will attack Iran this year;39% believe it is unlikely and 20% have no opinion. 59% of Democrats believe it is unlikely and 57% of Republicans believe it is likely.

Frankly, I tend to doubt the United States will attack. Israel might since Bibi Netanyahu has said it is not days or weeks but less than a year. I'll write about some of this later. But if the sanctions are allowed to work and Israel doesn't pull the trigger, the earliest any military action could take place--either under President Obama or a Republican would be next summer. So cool all the war talk.

Peter Beinart has a piece in this issue of Newsweek on "Obama Betrayed His Ideals on Israel". I was struck by the word "ideals". Isn't it nice that we accept the fact that our President has ideals? Can you name recent presidents you thought had ideals? I thought President Obama pandered to the AIPAC crowd but I wouldn't say "sold out his ideals". I hope if he is re-elected he will decline the next invitation to speak there. But don't you want a president with ideals even if he occasionally sells them out?