Wednesday, February 3, 2016
Clinton"s Delegate Lead: 385 to 29
++Her lead is composed of Iowa and super delegates. Yes, super delegates can change allegiance but she neglected super delegates in 2008. Barack Obama started to score then with the endorsement of Ted Kennedy, which Hillary found wounding. So getting their commitments early gives her a little cushion.
Tuesday, February 2, 2016
The "Boy In The Bubble"
++That's Chris Christie's tag for Marco Rubio and Josh Marshall thinks it will stick. Rubio got blasted today when people noticed his speech last night was a Rip-off of President Obama's speech in Iowa when he actually won in 2008. Even the Donald got around to trashing Marco for coming in third when all the polls for months said he would come in third. The Donald also said that Ted Cruz' religious victory speech would be his Howard Dean Scream moment.
++Back to Senator Short Pants. Jason Linkins back at his election post at Huffington Post asks "Now which primary is Marco suppose to win?" Marco's strategy is 3-2-1, meaning second in New Hampshire and winning South Carolina. But New Hampshire is the big stumbling block. He's not even near second and we have a week to go. Chris Christie is staking that territory, John Kasich is giving its his last hurrah and Jeb !--well I don't know what he is doing. The theory is that the "establishment" whomever they are will back Rubio as a potential nominee. But that won't happen until after New Hampshire where all the other also-rans have millions left in the bank.
++Could we give it up for Hillary! She is the first woman in American history to win the Iowa Caucus. She takes a licking but keeps on ticking.
++Iowa may be folkloric with coin grosses settling delegates and people gathering around behind the candidates' name. But it also looks like African political party conventions from years ago. Athenian democracy it is not. Iowa just doesn't carry the narrative anymore. And Polk County can you finally get it right? It's only counting for chrissakes.
++Jason Linkins reminds us that the democrats pretty much ran the same percentages across the state. Hillary preserved the Obama coalition, although a bout tattered and Sanders won the white working class and the young. Iowa and New Hampshire are the two almost all white states . It's like the primary calendar is front-loaded for Sanders.
++In looking at political movements, twitter didn't help the Donald who lacked a GOTV operation. That may come back to bite him. At the same time, the Bernie enthusiasm and social media presence only got him a tie. There is something to established structures that seem to defy the internet. But Bernie did raise $3 million on the internet for his performance.
++Ben Carson complained about the Cruz' campaign's dirty tactics for tweeting that he had left the state and was rolling up his campaign. I know it comes from Carson but Cruz' tactics should be looked upon as the primaries head down the pike. He just aired an ad in South Carolina about cuts to their military bases that he blames on Obama but he was instrumental in getting passed and was an advocate of the base closures.
++Something to remember. Senator John F. Kennedy was 1960, Senator Barack Obama was 2008. Those are the only two Senators in post-WWII history that made the White House. Don't get too excited about Marco Rubio.
++Marco wants to go after Trump in New Hampshire with personal stuff. I'm sure JEB! would oblige filling in the details for the Donald. Donors are trying to press JEB! not to attack Marco because his now the establishment wunderkind. But it's now personal and Jeb actually thinks he can make a comeback--really?
++The Beltway punditry are playing "Who's next to leave?" Santorum,Gillmore and Fiorina. But Christie,Kasich,Bush are gunning to place in New Hampshire and have enough cash left for then. Ben will go --maybe in a way we will not notice.
++Hillary has a problem with her donors. Almost half have tapped out at their maximum. Rumors have her pulling resources out of New Hampshire and putting them in South Carolina and Nevada.
++Her ad with Eric Holder in South Carolina is very effective and should sheer up her African-American vote. In Iowa,where there is a minuscule African-American community, she won 57% over Sanders.
++The Young Turks are the newest stars of election commentary. They said that Martin O'Malley has to endorse sooner rather than later if he is to have any impact on the race.
++Bernie Sanders will agree to the Thursday debate if Hillary agrees to more. It would be the first Mano y Mano debate of this cycle.
++Back to Senator Short Pants. Jason Linkins back at his election post at Huffington Post asks "Now which primary is Marco suppose to win?" Marco's strategy is 3-2-1, meaning second in New Hampshire and winning South Carolina. But New Hampshire is the big stumbling block. He's not even near second and we have a week to go. Chris Christie is staking that territory, John Kasich is giving its his last hurrah and Jeb !--well I don't know what he is doing. The theory is that the "establishment" whomever they are will back Rubio as a potential nominee. But that won't happen until after New Hampshire where all the other also-rans have millions left in the bank.
++Could we give it up for Hillary! She is the first woman in American history to win the Iowa Caucus. She takes a licking but keeps on ticking.
++Iowa may be folkloric with coin grosses settling delegates and people gathering around behind the candidates' name. But it also looks like African political party conventions from years ago. Athenian democracy it is not. Iowa just doesn't carry the narrative anymore. And Polk County can you finally get it right? It's only counting for chrissakes.
++Jason Linkins reminds us that the democrats pretty much ran the same percentages across the state. Hillary preserved the Obama coalition, although a bout tattered and Sanders won the white working class and the young. Iowa and New Hampshire are the two almost all white states . It's like the primary calendar is front-loaded for Sanders.
++In looking at political movements, twitter didn't help the Donald who lacked a GOTV operation. That may come back to bite him. At the same time, the Bernie enthusiasm and social media presence only got him a tie. There is something to established structures that seem to defy the internet. But Bernie did raise $3 million on the internet for his performance.
++Ben Carson complained about the Cruz' campaign's dirty tactics for tweeting that he had left the state and was rolling up his campaign. I know it comes from Carson but Cruz' tactics should be looked upon as the primaries head down the pike. He just aired an ad in South Carolina about cuts to their military bases that he blames on Obama but he was instrumental in getting passed and was an advocate of the base closures.
++Something to remember. Senator John F. Kennedy was 1960, Senator Barack Obama was 2008. Those are the only two Senators in post-WWII history that made the White House. Don't get too excited about Marco Rubio.
++Marco wants to go after Trump in New Hampshire with personal stuff. I'm sure JEB! would oblige filling in the details for the Donald. Donors are trying to press JEB! not to attack Marco because his now the establishment wunderkind. But it's now personal and Jeb actually thinks he can make a comeback--really?
++The Beltway punditry are playing "Who's next to leave?" Santorum,Gillmore and Fiorina. But Christie,Kasich,Bush are gunning to place in New Hampshire and have enough cash left for then. Ben will go --maybe in a way we will not notice.
++Hillary has a problem with her donors. Almost half have tapped out at their maximum. Rumors have her pulling resources out of New Hampshire and putting them in South Carolina and Nevada.
++Her ad with Eric Holder in South Carolina is very effective and should sheer up her African-American vote. In Iowa,where there is a minuscule African-American community, she won 57% over Sanders.
++The Young Turks are the newest stars of election commentary. They said that Martin O'Malley has to endorse sooner rather than later if he is to have any impact on the race.
++Bernie Sanders will agree to the Thursday debate if Hillary agrees to more. It would be the first Mano y Mano debate of this cycle.
Monday, February 1, 2016
Keeping It In Perspective.
++It will take two weeks to have the official results --the 2012 GOP Iowa Caucus actually changed winners three times.
++Ted Cruz won 8 delegates, the Donald 7 and Rubio 7. Nate Silver says all three perform below the amount needed to win the nomination.
++Cruz' religious victory speech is based on his strategy that there are 75 million evangelicals who did not vote in the past election. Very dubious assumption.
++Hillary can declare victory because she also picked up the super delegates.
++The enthusiasm of the Bernie supporters produced the only bright spots in a dreary Caucus.
++Ted Cruz won 8 delegates, the Donald 7 and Rubio 7. Nate Silver says all three perform below the amount needed to win the nomination.
++Cruz' religious victory speech is based on his strategy that there are 75 million evangelicals who did not vote in the past election. Very dubious assumption.
++Hillary can declare victory because she also picked up the super delegates.
++The enthusiasm of the Bernie supporters produced the only bright spots in a dreary Caucus.
Early response To Trump's Concession Speech
++The Daily Beast, Business Insider and other blogs commented on the Donald's "humble" and "gracious" speech conceding the election. He mentioned that it had been a great experience and that he had been told not to participate in the Iowa Caucuses and proceeded to thank the people of Iowa and congratulated Ted Cruz and "the other wonderful candidates". Then he promised a great week and said he hoped to proclaim victory in New Hampshire.
++He may have been lucky to lose Iowa because we've seen Huckabee and Santorum win the previous times. Three times the charm doesn't seem to be the case. It is an abnormally white state that has an inordinate number of Christian fundamentalists,hardly the demographic for the general election.
++He may have been lucky to lose Iowa because we've seen Huckabee and Santorum win the previous times. Three times the charm doesn't seem to be the case. It is an abnormally white state that has an inordinate number of Christian fundamentalists,hardly the demographic for the general election.
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