The "Boy In The Bubble"

++That's Chris Christie's tag for Marco Rubio and Josh Marshall thinks it will stick. Rubio got blasted today when people noticed his speech last night was a Rip-off of President Obama's speech in Iowa when he actually won in 2008. Even the Donald got around to trashing Marco for coming in third when all the polls for months said he would come in third. The Donald also said that Ted Cruz' religious victory speech would be his Howard Dean Scream moment. 

++Back to Senator Short Pants. Jason Linkins back at his election post at Huffington Post asks "Now which primary is Marco suppose to win?" Marco's strategy is 3-2-1, meaning second in New Hampshire and winning South Carolina. But New Hampshire is the big stumbling block. He's not even near second and we have a week to go. Chris Christie is staking that territory, John Kasich is giving its his last hurrah and Jeb !--well I don't know what he is doing. The theory is that the "establishment" whomever they are will back Rubio as a potential nominee. But that won't happen until after New Hampshire where all the other also-rans have millions left in the bank.

++Could we give it up for Hillary! She is the first woman in American history to win the Iowa Caucus. She takes a licking but keeps on ticking. 

++Iowa may be folkloric with coin grosses settling delegates and people gathering around behind the candidates' name. But it also looks like African political party conventions from years ago. Athenian democracy it is not. Iowa just doesn't carry the narrative anymore. And Polk County can you finally get it right? It's only counting for chrissakes.

++Jason Linkins reminds us that the democrats pretty much ran the same percentages across the state. Hillary preserved the Obama coalition, although a bout tattered and Sanders won the white working class and the young. Iowa and New Hampshire are the two almost all white states . It's like the primary calendar is front-loaded for Sanders.

++In looking at political movements, twitter didn't help the Donald who lacked a GOTV operation. That may come back to bite him. At the same time, the Bernie enthusiasm and social media presence only got him a tie. There is something to established structures that seem to defy the internet. But Bernie did raise $3 million on the internet for his performance.

++Ben Carson complained about the Cruz' campaign's dirty tactics for tweeting that he had left the state and was rolling up his campaign. I know it comes from Carson but Cruz' tactics should be looked upon as the primaries head down the pike. He just aired an ad in South Carolina about cuts to their military bases that he blames on Obama but he was instrumental in getting passed and was an advocate of the base closures. 

++Something to remember. Senator John F. Kennedy was 1960, Senator Barack Obama was 2008.  Those are the only two Senators in post-WWII history that made the White House. Don't get too excited about Marco Rubio.

++Marco wants to go after Trump in New Hampshire with personal  stuff. I'm sure JEB! would oblige filling in the details for the Donald. Donors are trying to press JEB! not to attack Marco because his now the establishment wunderkind. But it's now personal and Jeb actually thinks he can make a comeback--really?

++The Beltway punditry are playing "Who's next to leave?" Santorum,Gillmore and Fiorina. But Christie,Kasich,Bush are gunning to place in New Hampshire and have enough cash left for then. Ben will go --maybe in a way we will not notice.

++Hillary has a problem with her donors. Almost half have tapped out at their maximum. Rumors have her pulling resources out of New Hampshire and putting them in South Carolina and Nevada.

++Her ad with Eric Holder in South Carolina is very effective and should sheer up her African-American vote.  In Iowa,where there is a minuscule African-American community, she won 57% over Sanders.

++The Young Turks are the newest stars of election commentary. They said that Martin O'Malley has to endorse sooner rather than later if he is to have any impact on the race.

++Bernie Sanders will agree to the Thursday debate if Hillary agrees to more. It would be the first Mano y Mano debate of this cycle.

Nate Silver At FiveThirtyEight Thinks Marco Rubio Won The Debate But Not by Much

++Nate Silver recaped the debate and the grades given out by his team and also Mark Halerin, who have everyone Bs or B- s. Silver noted the most Google Searches were on Ben Carson and he thinks this may become a major indicator of who won the debate. Nate also commented that it is possible that debates really don't count. I would answer that what you heard was a fairly solid line of talking points that will be used by the eventual nominee.

++Ring of Fire radio noted that Marco Rubio sounded like he had rehearsed all his lines and when he slipped he just repeated the previous word. Farron opined that in any debate with the Democratic nominee Rubio can't go off script or he gets killed.

++On Amy Goodman's show on DemocracyNow!, she talked with Anna Barach, an Cuban-American author, who pointed out that Rubio and Cruz both have problems if asked about The Cuban Restoration Act or The Wet Landing Act, which allows Cubans coming from Cuba automatic entrance to Cuba. This is in effect an amnesty that has been supported for decades by their party. If they didn't exist,neither candidates would have been citizens. 

++Nate Silver says that we all overestimate John Kasich since he has been courting the center-left press. He says that Kasich's combativeness has lost him favorability votes in New Hampshire and that his campaign looks like Jon Huntsman in the last election cycle. 

++Nate agrees with everyone that Jeb did himself no favor last night, He is too rusty a politician.

++On Democracy Now Jamall Smith talked about Ben Carson and how he really is an accomplished person that has been admired in the black community until he started running for President. He says that the GOP has to find their next Willie Horton but can only do so once it is clear Carson can't win the nomination. 

++He went onto say that Carson was a wonky kid and has to fabricate his violent tendencies because that is expected of him in Republican circles.

++Smith also said that by indulging the GOP in this fantasy of a black man gone straight will wreck Carson's reach into the black community.

Ben Carson Raises $10 Million in October

++Ben Carson's take in a month overwhelms mainstream GOP contenders over three months. He thanked his 800,000 grassroots supporters. Is he the equivalent of Bernie Sanders who has 1 million grassroots supporters?

From The Sublime To The Ridiculous

++The Donald will not reveal his birth certificate or passport information. The Donald is banning all Univision personnel from his properties. The Donald is suing Univision for canceling his Miss America pageant because of his remarks against Mexicans. Ari-Fleischer is upset that The Donald is acting like a car wreck for the Republican race--everyone stares at it while everything goes by.

++Fat Tony Scalia has had a bad two days. When the same sex verdict came down, his dissent waxed on about intimacy and spirituality. Then he said,"Ask your nearest "Hippie". Well ,Huffington Post did, they asked David Crosby, certainly a hippie, who said Scalia was dissing both gays and hippies.

++Piyush Jindal says we should save money and get rid of the courts. 

++Mike Huckabee said he would not obey the judicial tyranny.

++Ben Carson just said it was the law of the land. You have to admit it is scary when Carson both on the killings at Mother Emmanuel Church and the verdict on same sex marriage is the voice of reason in the GOP.

++Ms.Lindsey Graham said that it is futile to fight the ruling. 

++Jeb! said he wished the courts left it to the states.

++You see what I mean that you will miss Barack when he goes. You will be left with these knuckleheads. 

Must Every Republican Buy Fox News Talking Points?

++Fox News spent the day trying to avoid the fact the shooter had racist leanings and wanted to start a race war. But does Lindsey Graham have to go on Fox and claim the shooter was looking for Christians to kill? I mean really? I thought Rick Santorum's earlier remarks were off the wall but I guess this is the new talking point.

++American flags were half mast but not the Confederate flag. A Charlestown paper had to apologize for putting gun ad stickers on their front page.


++Don't look now Rick Perry is moving up in the Iowa polls. Quinnipiac found that there were no true GOP leaders in the swing states but Hillary is over 50% in all of them. Monmouth University says there are no first-tier GOP candidates. Only a few make 10%.

++You may not know this but President Obama mediated a solution for the Libyan civil war between the Gulf States at his Camp David summit of the Arab states.

++The Sanders Surge continues. Events in Denver must be moved to larger venues and his South Carolina appearance likewise. Bernie has pulled within 10 of Hillary Clinton.

++Ben Carson was the only Republican to appear at the National Latino Conference in Las Vegas. Carson said he was for closing all borders. He wasn't afraid of Hondurans but people from Syria who want to bomb us. That's one way of arguing against immigrants.

++When The Donald said that all Mexicans were drug smugglers and rapists,Jeb didn't respond, Rubio said nothing and Reince Preibus didn't respond. So much for outreach to Hispanics.

++Elderly vets are circulating e-mails concerned about the Chinese hacking of the records of people with security clearances. I asked why they should have them anyway. Crickets.

++Senator Corker is up to campaigning against the Iran deal, which I remind everyone we still do not know whether it will occur and what will be in it. Corker says that Obama gave too much away.

++The Donald says he would negotiate a better deal and double the sanctions. 

++You will live in a very cramped country if Republicans get elected. Now they are back trashing Europe and Asia. They hate Latin America and Africa.

++It is going to be hard to justify a re-invasion of Iraq. Read today's column by Andrew Bacevitch in Toms Dispatch. He weaves a tale of why the present policy is absurd and why doubling down is even more so. 

++The Donald likes Putin and can make a deal with him. 

++The next two weeks should see a same-sex ruling and Obamacare at the Supreme Court. I still fear for Obamacare. The result would be a disaster and really render Obama a lame duck.

++This week's New Yorker has a fine article on Diane Feinstein and the fight with John Brennen over the torture report.

++White Supremacists are concerned that the shooing at Emmanuel makes them look bad. I kid you not.

Scatter-Shot Views

++Jeb changed his campaign team before his launch. While it was a shuffle,GOP insiders had complained that JEB had promised that he would be leading and then release his SuperPac Money Bomb and drown the competition and be the Inevitable One.

++Problem is that his money bomb isn't going to make the $100 million number when he launches. 

++His digital communications quite because he claimed that Jeb in going to go heavy into television ads. The model for his campaign is his brother's 1999 campaign where George W. convinced his party there could be nothing but surrender to his candidacy.

++Rachel Maddow interviewed Lincoln Chaffee on his unorthodox career but stumbled on a weird fact. Lincoln lived in the same dorm with Jeb at Andover and knew him early in his career. Chaffee broke with the Republicans because he could not trust W. Chaffee actually visited the CIA and was briefed as Senator on WMDs in Iraq and came away saying there was nothing there. Consequently he voted against the Iraq War and ,as he told Rachel,someone has to stand against perpetual war. 

++Mike Gerson said that it is true Rand Paul's campaign is in total disarray but that any GOP candidate is only one debate away becoming a contender. But Paul has also pissed off his colleagues on the NSA issue because they accuse him of lying about the surveillance program and trying to get credit about the bill that was passed even though he had nothing to do with it.

++Ted Cruz held a mock hearing inviting HHS officials to debate Obama subsidies. The Department declined because the subject was being litigated/

++The GOP is ramping up its anti Obamacare rhetoric. They claim they have a substitute if the government loses at SCOTUS but even here there was in complete shambles. 

++Steve Benen at MaddowBlog writes about President Obama doing a victory lap over Obamacare. The President's point was not only that it registered millions and drastically reduced the uninsured,it effectively is now the American health insurance system five years later. He knows a Supreme court ruling would not only take health insurance away from 6 million and lead to 9,000 deaths per year but that the whole system would be jeopardized.

++Marco Rubio has been drawing criticism for his erratic personal finances. This time it is about his "unsinkable" boat he bought. Actually I think these stories don't hurt him because they make him human with chronic financial problems, something millions can relate to.

++The DONALD really is going to announce on the 16th and he told a Raleigh audience that they would be pleased. The Donald has a secret plan to defeat ISIS and he discussed this with the Pentagon who, of course, think it is brilliant. The Donald will be the job-creatorest of presidents because he knows who to do this. He is the only one who can save us now.

++The Hillary machine is getting into gear. Her kickoff in New York will be the official start-up of her 50 state organizing campaign. Yes, Iowa Democrats are crying for her to return. But I think they need the money.

++Former Senator Tom Coburn gave a frank interview with a conservative radio host and said he was horrified by the field of Republican candidates. He gave a person by person analysis . He favors Marco Rubio.

++Chris Christie wants to put a military option on the table against China. Think about that.

++Jeb gave his first strictly foreign policy speech and wants to get tough against Putin.

++Rubio gave a speech to say he would get tough against Russia and China.

++Scott Walker said he would re-invade Iraq.

++Chris Christie's Bridgegate problems won't go away as David Wildstein, his former aide, has given evidence against Christie. Christie is accused of leaking Grand Jury testimony. Bridget Riley is pissed at being thrown under the bus and is now suing for access to the Christie sponsored investigation that exonerated Christie.

++Ben Carson's campaign quit but his business manager Armstrong Williams says it's no problem. The various SuperPacs got into each other's way. He still polls well in Iowa.

++Nate the Great tells us we should not take the Wisconsin Straw Poll that showed Bernie Sanders at 41% too seriously. We didn't.

++Under the surface,various progressive websites do not recognize a reality about Hillary's campaign. She is locking up the permanent delegates like Democratic office holders, which play a key role at the convention. There are structural elements to her campaign like Obama's before hers that rarely get observed or mentioned. 50-state organization is key. Locking up delegates is another. Basically all Democratic-leaning think-tanks are in her corner. This doesn't leave alot of space for competitors.

How To Interpret The New Congress

++Barney Frank was pretty nonchalant about the efforts to roll back Dodd-Franks financial reform even though the GOP managed to get the regulations on derivatives removed. Frank's assessment is that the core will be preserve ed and the Obama Administration is committed from blocking more erosion. I wish I could believe him.

++Jonathan Bernstein says that Hillary has the Democratic nomination sewed up. Hiring Jon Podesta and other heavyweights seals the deal for him. 

++The House Republicans voted to deport the DREAMERS even though the handful of moderates tried to restrain them. We are talking about the first tranche of immigrants Obama ruled on. How's that for minority outreach.

++One problemo is that the House Republicans defunded Homeland Security which cancels border security and deportations. Obama's action are funded through fees. So the national security party leaves the country defenseless out of a temper tantrum. 

++Rick Perry says he will defend the border even though Obama won't. FYI--there is a net negative immigration on the border--more people are going to Mexico than coming here.

++There are some strange doings in our Congress. John McCain is going after the Jones Law, which mandates that American goods must be shipped on American ships. The idea was to bolster the American shipbuilding industry.

++The House passes without debate an obscure bill that would undo almost all state regulation--from EPA to the SEC. Kudos to the Huffington Post for catching this one. It is one of the most pernicious bills from this Congress.

++You can travel to Havana tomorrow. The restrictions on tourist travel have been lifted.

++President Obama has mandated that methane emissions be reduced by 40% by 2025. Mother Jones thinks this is a big F****ing Deal. This almost cements President Obama's legacy as the most active environmental president since TR.

++George Will thinks Democrats are klutzes on the Keystone XL Pipeline. The last few days we in the Beltway have heard incessant ads for the pipeline. 

++I always think there will be a time when the right just gets hoarse from the nonsense about President Obama. Now the grand conspiracy is that President Obama--Obama to you laypeople--is blackmailing General Petraeus with the threat of an indictment over the leaking of classified documents to his mistress. The fear is that Petraeus could reveal the "truth" about Benghazi--whatever that is.

++Rudy Guiliani thinks Romney can win if he stresses Benghazi again. 

++Because Congress thinks President Obama has weaponized the IRS, you will not be receiving your tax refunds in time because they cut the IRS's budget, which also means about $300billion will not be collected.

++The GOP presidential race has opened with the Mitt-Jeb wars. Chris Christie is telling big donors to wait .It's too early. Christie is backed by Mr. Hobby Land,the person whose corporation has a religion. That's all you need too know.

++The RNC has scheduled its Cleveland convention early to get an edge on the Democrats and have limited the number of debates in case you get the idea they are wacko-birds.

++Speaking of which Alex Jones of Infowars fame endorses Rand Paul and Carnival Cruz as the ticket.

++President Obama is about to authorize maternity leave for federal employees and may push for mandatory overtime of all employees.

++Andrew Sullivan, recovering from his cold,reiterates that Obama is to the center-left what Reagan was to the center right. I buy that. The New New York magazine has extended pieces on historians evaluating what will be Obama legacy.

++Secretary of State John Kerry is in Paris to meet with the Iranian foreign minister on the nuclear talks. Meanwhile the Senate has readied two bills to enforce stricter sanctions against Iran because the Senators do not trust President Obama being "tough enough" on the Iranians.

++And I conclude with Ben Carson,GOP candidate for President, saying today that ISIS is like our Founding Fathers they will die for their beliefs.

God Is Confused

++Herman Cain,of Godfather Pizza fame,says he may run again for the GOP presidential nomination.

++Dr. Ben Carson says God is calling on him and he may run for the GOP presidential nomination.

++Bishop Desmond Tutu visited Alberta today to say that Tarsands oil was filth and we have to work together on the environment for all of creation.

++Rev. Hagee's son told a television audience that real Christians can not be allowed to believe in climate change.

++You be the judge on God's Will.