The Tea Party and their corporate sponsors have already targeted their former darling Scott Brown of Massachusetts for a primary challenge in 2012. Massachusetts protected itself this time by electing all Democrats to congress and the state house. It learned its lesson. After winning the Maine state house by the slimmest of slim margins, they are targeting Olympia Snowe in 2012. They have also announced on their hit list--Indiana's Dick Lugar (probably for his friendship with President Obama), Tennessee's Bob Corker (who voted against bailing out the auto industry) and Utah's conservative Senator Orrin Hatch since they did in Bob Bennett this year.
President Obama's conciliatory press conference, where he assumed responsibility for last night's disaster,recalls similar ones by Bill Clinton in 1994 and Ronald Reagan in 1982, both popular presidents experiencing mid-term disasters. While President Obama said he would compromise on joint goals with Republicans, he still defended the health care bill as the right thing to do. Across town, Michael Steele and John Boehner said they wouldn't compromise, which is an interesting point of view when you are in Congress, which is defined as compromising. The 1994 mentality is already taking hold with Republicans. The House is equivalent to the Presidency. Newt really made that one work.
Here are some things that will and will not happen:
* Social Security will not be abolished or privatized even though Republicans want to.
* Major economic initiatives won't happen as evidenced by the hostile questioning of the President today about no further stimulus packages.
* Contrary to Ed Schultz, there will be no impeachment of President Obama, since even the House Republicans know they don't control the Senate.
* Rep. Issa will investigate ACORN, which conservatives believe elected Obama fraudulently, and the New Black Panther Party's so-called voter intimidation in 2008.
* Rep. Sensenbrenner will call for hearing on the Climate Change hoax more to blackmail Republicans who want some type of new energy policy. The Koch Brothers fund all anti-climate change projects in the United States.
*DADT will die a slow, painful death.
*House Republicans will try to repeal Health Care but will fail because Senate Democrats will just kill their bill.
* Our two wars will wind down and American forces will be leaving Afghanistan as promised this coming summer, even though General Petraeus doesn't want to leave.
* The House will first vote against raising the debt ceiling but then will be forced to because too many Americans would suffer.
*Unfortunately, I think there will be a compromise on the Bush Tax Cuts.
*Business will get a whole lot of new tax breaks.
*The rich will get even richer. Reagan's OMB head, David Stockman, commented on 60 minutes that the top 2% of Americans accumulated since 1980 more wealth than all of mankind since the beginning.
*The recovery will continue to be slow and some of the projects started in the stimulus will start paying off by creating jobs.
*After Obama promises significant tax breaks to business, the Chamber of Commerce will muscle Jhn Boehner to pass an infrastrucrture bill and the teabaggers will revolt.
*Obama will use the power of veto more than once in the next year and a half.
*Newt Gingrich will run for the Republican nomination because the Republicans took back the House.
*Haley Barbour will test waters in primary states, since he knows that George W was the President of the Governors' Association and used it to win the White House.
*Rick Perry of Texas will also run for the Republican nomination.
*Jerry Brown will not seek the presidency again. He will be content to be both the youngest and oldest Governor of California. His is actually one of the great political sagas of our time.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
So Much for A Mandate
Before Republicans settle in with their teabagger friends to dismantle the achievements of the Obama Administration, they should reflect on their own pollster's findings. Rasmussen Reports conducted a phone survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters on November 1-2 and found a stunning 59% of Likely Voters think it is at least somewhat likely that most voters will be disappointed with Republicans in Congress before the next national elections. 33% says it's unlikely that most voters will feel that way, but only 5% say it's Not At All Likely.
Most voters weren't convinced that there will be a big change in their lives with Republicans controlling Congress. Voters overhwhelmingly believe the Republican-controlled House is likely to repeal the national health care law. They are less confident that taxes and government spending will go down with the GOP in charge of the House.
54% of Republican voters believe it is unlikely that most voters will be disappointed with how the party performs in Congress. 81% of Democrats and 54% of voters not affiliated with either party disagree. 69% of democrats and 29% of unaffiliated says It's Very Likely voters will be disappointed.
I like this one--72% of Republican voters said that most GOP members of Congress had lost touch with the party base throughout the nation over the last several years. 50-32% viewed the Pledge to America as simply a campaign gimmick. 53% say it is somewhat likely that Republicans will do what they promise in the Pledge.
Most voters believed that the elections were a referendum on President Obama's agenda and they think he should change course with Republicans now in control. But most don't expect him to make that change.
If you examine the Exit polls of last night, you would find the most bewildering contradictions in answers, especially for those people voting Republican. The truly off-the-wall reasoning came from independents, who wanted to send a message, even though they support President Obama.
I like the seniors who voted Republican because they didn't get their COLA this year to Social Security. Republicans won the highest number of seniors in decades, even though many of their candidates want to privatize social security and eliminate Medicare.
Most voters weren't convinced that there will be a big change in their lives with Republicans controlling Congress. Voters overhwhelmingly believe the Republican-controlled House is likely to repeal the national health care law. They are less confident that taxes and government spending will go down with the GOP in charge of the House.
54% of Republican voters believe it is unlikely that most voters will be disappointed with how the party performs in Congress. 81% of Democrats and 54% of voters not affiliated with either party disagree. 69% of democrats and 29% of unaffiliated says It's Very Likely voters will be disappointed.
I like this one--72% of Republican voters said that most GOP members of Congress had lost touch with the party base throughout the nation over the last several years. 50-32% viewed the Pledge to America as simply a campaign gimmick. 53% say it is somewhat likely that Republicans will do what they promise in the Pledge.
Most voters believed that the elections were a referendum on President Obama's agenda and they think he should change course with Republicans now in control. But most don't expect him to make that change.
If you examine the Exit polls of last night, you would find the most bewildering contradictions in answers, especially for those people voting Republican. The truly off-the-wall reasoning came from independents, who wanted to send a message, even though they support President Obama.
I like the seniors who voted Republican because they didn't get their COLA this year to Social Security. Republicans won the highest number of seniors in decades, even though many of their candidates want to privatize social security and eliminate Medicare.
The Best Congress Money Could Buy
Last night we learned that African Americans and Latinos are the most rational people in our society. We learned from Russ Feingold's defeat that newspaper endorsements do not matter. We also learned that the American voter is schizophrenic. Exit polls showed that everyone was fed up with Washington but that there was an even split on healthcare reform; and only 31% of people wanted tax cuts for the wealthy extended and another sizable portion does want any of the tax cuts extended. In fact, the plurality of the voters actually supported the Democrats' positions but voted the other way.
We also learned that unlimited, anonymous money will buy you anything--except if it's your own as witnessed by Meg Whitman's defeat. In states where Obama policies created the most jobs--in Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and Pennsylvania--Democrats lost. We also learned that you can win by not saying anything and not meeting with the media. We also learned that massive organizational efforts do matter but sometimes can not overcome massive waves of attacks ads--the Swiftboat technique on steroids. And we also learned not to trust internal polls as in the case of Alan Grayson, who was whomped by a theocrat named Daniel Webster. And we also learned that the right's two year campaign of vitriol against Barack Obama worked.
The Senate didn't surprise, although by a very few votes, Democrats could have 55 seats. Joe Sestak ran a great campaign and came very close to pulling it off against Club of Greed Pat Toomey. The Democrats came a hair's breadth away from taking Illinois. My favorite campaign in Alaska simply sank. Lisa Murkowski will be the first write-in Senator since Strom Thurmond in his Dixiecrat days.
Republicans will clean up in redistricting the Congress since they won so many state houses. Haley Barbour is bragging that Republican House majorities will continue for some time.
The Washington punditry claims now Republicans have to be responsible and that Barack Obama will have to compromise with them. I'm sorry if I'm highly skeptical of this. House Republicans are very vindictive and also self-destructive. In the months ahead, you will be exposed to the craziest people who have ever served in Congress in my lifetime.
Just an observation. There is absolutely no idea being put forth by the victorious Republicans which will help the average American in any way or would help this country make the type of structural changes necessary to compete in the world. In fact, virtually everything they will try will run counter to the welfare and security of the country. And there is no ideas or policy proposals floating in conservative circles that make sense at this period of our history. Personally, all my life America has had a wide margin of error. That margin no longer exists.
It is amazing to me that the American people actually intentionally voted to decline as a nation. This has got to scare the pants off any country who is remotely our ally.
But to keep our sense of humor, just relax and enjoy the circus. The clowncar is full. The upcoming events to watch:
* John McCain's filibuster of the repeal of DADT.
*The formal request by the House for the cost estimates of deporting all illegal immigrants.
*The Vote to raise the country's debt ceiling.
*The Vote on the Highway Fund--this will be an indicator whether Republicans still believe in national development.
* The Catfood Commission failing to reach consensus on the debt reduction measures.
* The Repeal of Healthcare Reform.
* The Defunding of all regulatory agencies.
* Deflation
*The Defunding of NPR because they fired millionaire Juan Williams
*The investigation of the crimes of Barack Obama--maybe we can find out who killed Vin Foster
* Congressional action on the Foreclosure Crisis
*The Climate Change as Hoax hearings.
I'll be back for the 2012 Presidential election but I don't know whether I have the stomach to watch the upcoming car wreck. Let's all recall that the last Congress was the most productive and beneficial to the average American that we have had in over a generation. Ironically, the House paid the price for the Senate. And the Republican refusal to work with the Obama Administration paid off in spades.
We can take solace in the failure of Karl Rove to achieve his mandated task of winning back the Senate. But Karl's Crossroads America will be airing ads throughout the next few months attacking Democrats.
There will be alot of Monday Morning Quarterbacking, criticising Obama for this or that. President Obama and the Democrats paid the price of having dealt with sophisticated policy issues for the first time since the 1970s. The country lost its appetite and habit for such a view of government. It was best to continue the delusion that we are the greatest country in the world and not be self-critical. As the crowds shouted when John Boehner spoke,"U.S.A!, U.S.A!"
The most important aspect of the election and indeed Obama presidency is that we have all learned who owns America and that they will not give up any control. We await the numerous scandals from the current campaign of anonymous donors. But we do know that every oil company--domestic, foreign and private like The Koch Brothers, poured money in this campaign to stop any movement toward clean energy. Happily, the people of California defeated the attempt by these companies to repeal the climate change legislation. Also, we know that every financial firm backed the Republicans with millions to undo the Wall Street Reform. This idea will send Europe farther away from the United States because we're to blame this time for the collapse of the international financial system. These elections must put a damper on any thoughts that the United States can make the reforms necessary to remain a defining country in the world.
When you dig deep into the polls, you find that white people over 55 voted for Republicans in overwhelming numbers--especially males. It was the white man's tantrum. While Democrats see this as a temporary phenomenon that will be countered by the demographic shift in this country, I'm not so sanguine about that. We saw the eruption this election of very goonish behavior and the dying white, privileged class will take measures to forestall this event. One nice thing to see was that the younger generation--white, African-American, Latino and gays--are voting in a very similar pattern. This was not true with the older generation. We may actually be a melting pot and not know it. This election saw the strange appearance of whites playing "identity politics" as if they are threatened. Hopefully, this will disappear sooner rather than later. But don't count on it. This allows us not to debate issues of class--the last taboo subject in America.
We also learned that unlimited, anonymous money will buy you anything--except if it's your own as witnessed by Meg Whitman's defeat. In states where Obama policies created the most jobs--in Michigan, Ohio, Illinois and Pennsylvania--Democrats lost. We also learned that you can win by not saying anything and not meeting with the media. We also learned that massive organizational efforts do matter but sometimes can not overcome massive waves of attacks ads--the Swiftboat technique on steroids. And we also learned not to trust internal polls as in the case of Alan Grayson, who was whomped by a theocrat named Daniel Webster. And we also learned that the right's two year campaign of vitriol against Barack Obama worked.
The Senate didn't surprise, although by a very few votes, Democrats could have 55 seats. Joe Sestak ran a great campaign and came very close to pulling it off against Club of Greed Pat Toomey. The Democrats came a hair's breadth away from taking Illinois. My favorite campaign in Alaska simply sank. Lisa Murkowski will be the first write-in Senator since Strom Thurmond in his Dixiecrat days.
Republicans will clean up in redistricting the Congress since they won so many state houses. Haley Barbour is bragging that Republican House majorities will continue for some time.
The Washington punditry claims now Republicans have to be responsible and that Barack Obama will have to compromise with them. I'm sorry if I'm highly skeptical of this. House Republicans are very vindictive and also self-destructive. In the months ahead, you will be exposed to the craziest people who have ever served in Congress in my lifetime.
Just an observation. There is absolutely no idea being put forth by the victorious Republicans which will help the average American in any way or would help this country make the type of structural changes necessary to compete in the world. In fact, virtually everything they will try will run counter to the welfare and security of the country. And there is no ideas or policy proposals floating in conservative circles that make sense at this period of our history. Personally, all my life America has had a wide margin of error. That margin no longer exists.
It is amazing to me that the American people actually intentionally voted to decline as a nation. This has got to scare the pants off any country who is remotely our ally.
But to keep our sense of humor, just relax and enjoy the circus. The clowncar is full. The upcoming events to watch:
* John McCain's filibuster of the repeal of DADT.
*The formal request by the House for the cost estimates of deporting all illegal immigrants.
*The Vote to raise the country's debt ceiling.
*The Vote on the Highway Fund--this will be an indicator whether Republicans still believe in national development.
* The Catfood Commission failing to reach consensus on the debt reduction measures.
* The Repeal of Healthcare Reform.
* The Defunding of all regulatory agencies.
* Deflation
*The Defunding of NPR because they fired millionaire Juan Williams
*The investigation of the crimes of Barack Obama--maybe we can find out who killed Vin Foster
* Congressional action on the Foreclosure Crisis
*The Climate Change as Hoax hearings.
I'll be back for the 2012 Presidential election but I don't know whether I have the stomach to watch the upcoming car wreck. Let's all recall that the last Congress was the most productive and beneficial to the average American that we have had in over a generation. Ironically, the House paid the price for the Senate. And the Republican refusal to work with the Obama Administration paid off in spades.
We can take solace in the failure of Karl Rove to achieve his mandated task of winning back the Senate. But Karl's Crossroads America will be airing ads throughout the next few months attacking Democrats.
There will be alot of Monday Morning Quarterbacking, criticising Obama for this or that. President Obama and the Democrats paid the price of having dealt with sophisticated policy issues for the first time since the 1970s. The country lost its appetite and habit for such a view of government. It was best to continue the delusion that we are the greatest country in the world and not be self-critical. As the crowds shouted when John Boehner spoke,"U.S.A!, U.S.A!"
The most important aspect of the election and indeed Obama presidency is that we have all learned who owns America and that they will not give up any control. We await the numerous scandals from the current campaign of anonymous donors. But we do know that every oil company--domestic, foreign and private like The Koch Brothers, poured money in this campaign to stop any movement toward clean energy. Happily, the people of California defeated the attempt by these companies to repeal the climate change legislation. Also, we know that every financial firm backed the Republicans with millions to undo the Wall Street Reform. This idea will send Europe farther away from the United States because we're to blame this time for the collapse of the international financial system. These elections must put a damper on any thoughts that the United States can make the reforms necessary to remain a defining country in the world.
When you dig deep into the polls, you find that white people over 55 voted for Republicans in overwhelming numbers--especially males. It was the white man's tantrum. While Democrats see this as a temporary phenomenon that will be countered by the demographic shift in this country, I'm not so sanguine about that. We saw the eruption this election of very goonish behavior and the dying white, privileged class will take measures to forestall this event. One nice thing to see was that the younger generation--white, African-American, Latino and gays--are voting in a very similar pattern. This was not true with the older generation. We may actually be a melting pot and not know it. This election saw the strange appearance of whites playing "identity politics" as if they are threatened. Hopefully, this will disappear sooner rather than later. But don't count on it. This allows us not to debate issues of class--the last taboo subject in America.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Strange Doings on the Hustings
My reluctance to call the House has been because I keep hearing strange discordant notes that one picks up that run counter to the media narrative. It could well be that there will be a Republican tidal wave but it's not a done deal as of this hour.
Punditocracy claim the Republicans will pick up 50 to 60 seats tomorrow. This may be true but as of tonight there are 68 congressional districts, where candidates are separated by three points or less. In the eerily optimistic notes of both Tim Kaine and Chris Van Hollen that the Democrats will hold both the Senate and the House. They say it in a way unlike Karl Rove assuring Republicans in 2006. Also, why are Republicans planning on recounts in 50 districts if this isn't going down to the wire. A slight breeze in the Democrats' direction and the losses will not be as bad.
Reports are coming in on African-American voting and they are come out huge. In North Carolina, where now over 1 million have voted, they represent 20% of the vote, exactly the number there and are coming out at a higher rate than 2006.
The White House today reported that Hispanic early voting was up 13% over the 2006 mid-terms and that they may make a difference in Nevada, Colorado and California. And, maybe,in Texas. It also could prove pivotal for Democrats in Arizona congressional races.
Some of this may be spilling into the Pennsylvania race where the Republican is opening a lead on the Democrat for governor but Sestak has been hitting more stops than the Duracell bunny. Media coverage in the Philadelphia area report enthusiastic crowds at his final stops ,while very lackluster and sparse crowds at Pat Toomey's final rallies. Sestak needs a 400,000 vote margin coming out of Philadelphia to win. That's what to look for tomorrow night.
Dr. Michael McDonald of George Mason University said today that this year's midterms appear to be heading to the 90 million mark or 41.3% of registered voters. This would be the highest turnout in a mid-term in American history. Unfortunately, the only analogous mid-term was in 1994 when the republicans took the House and 41.2% of registered voters cast their ballots.
John Cornyn told the MSM that the Republicans would not win the Senate this year but will in 2012. He is sticking with the six-eight figure people are using. He has reason to be optimistic for 2012 because 20 Democrats will have to defend their seats.
In the little campaign that could, Scott McAdams is alive and well in Alaska. The latest Hays Research poll has Joe Miller at 27.1, Scott McAdams at 25.9%, and Lis Murkowski at 25.3% and 20% are undecided, the largest number undecided so late in the game. Don't wait up for this one. But it could be the upset of the night.
We have discrepancies in the Washington Senate race where PPP has Dino Rossi ahead of Patty Murray and , more importantly, ahead in the early voting. But Murray's GOTV is optimistic and she's waiting for the turnout from her base area.
John Nichols of the Nation claims that Russ Feingold is going to pull it out. Clearly biased, but a native of Wisconsin, he has been watching the Feingold campaign mobilizing students and claims the 35,000 Obama rally was a key component in bringing the young voters out. he also locates one area where Feingold always does well and must match his past numbers. He also points out that in the last election Feingold went to election day with 43% in the polls and won. He emphasizes that in Wisconsin you can register the day you vote, which may account for alot of the college voters.
After Obama's 2008 campaign, election observers said that elections would not be the same afterwards. They just may be right. David Plouffe now sounds prophetic when he said this year's races will come down to a few hundred or a thousand votes. At the end of the day, it will be interesting to see how effective the GOTV efforts were as against the huge 9 to 1 financial disadvantage the Democrats face.
Alot of the election work has been done under the radar and hasn't been covered by the media. In 2008, the media never covered how the Organizing for America campaign worked. An example from this year is that OFA never demobilized in Ohio, where Republicans are supposed to win big this year. We'll see whether the Republicans actually sweep there.
The New York Times mentioned that President Obama's last appearance in Cleveland,Ohio didn't fill the rafters in the basketball arena, a metaphor for the Democrats fate this year. However, the White House released a statement that the President has spoke to over 250,000 people at his campaign rallies. The President also had been to Ohio seven times in his short Presidency and only a few weeks before Cleveland drew 35,000 at a massive outdoor rally. So, we will have to wait to see how his candidates fare.
Occasionally on the screen you may have noticed former President Bill Clinton, who was in fine campaign form, delivering a positive message on behalf of the Democrats' agenda. He campaigned in states where Obama has less popularity but have large white working class constituencies. By now, he must have recorded over two dozen campaign stops.
At the beginning of the campaign, the Democrats said they had prepared to prevent another 1994. Almost all media have predicted they have failed in their job. There are too many intangibles yet to make that judgement. Have they learned from the Virginia governor's debacle and the Scott Brown freak show in Massachusetts. Apparently, the Attorney-General of Massachusetts announced today that their turnout would break a record.
On the negative side, all the Democrats' offices in New Hampshire did not have phone service today, the crucial GOTV day. In the previous election,Republican operatives were sentenced to jail for phone tampering. Here, Democrats are fighting off two Republican challenges for House seats and trying to keep the state house.
Normally a high turnout election favors Democrats. Republicans count on a low turnout of minorities, college students and low-income earners in a mid-term. They are banking on a majority of white males, the wealthier Americans, and now senior citizens (which doesn't make sense to me.) Usually the demographic spread in a mid-term favors Republicans, but the preliminary reports show that at least a good portion of Obama's base is turning out. The one area where the Democrats are getting killed is with Independents, who are moving toward Republicans by double-digits.
I'm not sure we will know who will win the House until late, if at all, tomorrow night. We do know the Republicans will win about 30 governorships. This is largely the handiwork of Haley Barbour, the Governor of Mississippi and former RNC chair. Until recently, Barbour has kept his head down and avoided all the controversy over the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Crossroads America.
One question I have is how effective are robocalls? Republicans are robocalling like crazy and lying like crazy about their opponent. I just hang up. Who listens and why do both parties use such an obnoxious campaign device? Some one must have done studies showing they work but I have never met anyone who ever admits it.
So Get Out The Vote. Drag your friends to the polls and call them. As Yogi said, "It's not over unti it's over."
Punditocracy claim the Republicans will pick up 50 to 60 seats tomorrow. This may be true but as of tonight there are 68 congressional districts, where candidates are separated by three points or less. In the eerily optimistic notes of both Tim Kaine and Chris Van Hollen that the Democrats will hold both the Senate and the House. They say it in a way unlike Karl Rove assuring Republicans in 2006. Also, why are Republicans planning on recounts in 50 districts if this isn't going down to the wire. A slight breeze in the Democrats' direction and the losses will not be as bad.
Reports are coming in on African-American voting and they are come out huge. In North Carolina, where now over 1 million have voted, they represent 20% of the vote, exactly the number there and are coming out at a higher rate than 2006.
The White House today reported that Hispanic early voting was up 13% over the 2006 mid-terms and that they may make a difference in Nevada, Colorado and California. And, maybe,in Texas. It also could prove pivotal for Democrats in Arizona congressional races.
Some of this may be spilling into the Pennsylvania race where the Republican is opening a lead on the Democrat for governor but Sestak has been hitting more stops than the Duracell bunny. Media coverage in the Philadelphia area report enthusiastic crowds at his final stops ,while very lackluster and sparse crowds at Pat Toomey's final rallies. Sestak needs a 400,000 vote margin coming out of Philadelphia to win. That's what to look for tomorrow night.
Dr. Michael McDonald of George Mason University said today that this year's midterms appear to be heading to the 90 million mark or 41.3% of registered voters. This would be the highest turnout in a mid-term in American history. Unfortunately, the only analogous mid-term was in 1994 when the republicans took the House and 41.2% of registered voters cast their ballots.
John Cornyn told the MSM that the Republicans would not win the Senate this year but will in 2012. He is sticking with the six-eight figure people are using. He has reason to be optimistic for 2012 because 20 Democrats will have to defend their seats.
In the little campaign that could, Scott McAdams is alive and well in Alaska. The latest Hays Research poll has Joe Miller at 27.1, Scott McAdams at 25.9%, and Lis Murkowski at 25.3% and 20% are undecided, the largest number undecided so late in the game. Don't wait up for this one. But it could be the upset of the night.
We have discrepancies in the Washington Senate race where PPP has Dino Rossi ahead of Patty Murray and , more importantly, ahead in the early voting. But Murray's GOTV is optimistic and she's waiting for the turnout from her base area.
John Nichols of the Nation claims that Russ Feingold is going to pull it out. Clearly biased, but a native of Wisconsin, he has been watching the Feingold campaign mobilizing students and claims the 35,000 Obama rally was a key component in bringing the young voters out. he also locates one area where Feingold always does well and must match his past numbers. He also points out that in the last election Feingold went to election day with 43% in the polls and won. He emphasizes that in Wisconsin you can register the day you vote, which may account for alot of the college voters.
After Obama's 2008 campaign, election observers said that elections would not be the same afterwards. They just may be right. David Plouffe now sounds prophetic when he said this year's races will come down to a few hundred or a thousand votes. At the end of the day, it will be interesting to see how effective the GOTV efforts were as against the huge 9 to 1 financial disadvantage the Democrats face.
Alot of the election work has been done under the radar and hasn't been covered by the media. In 2008, the media never covered how the Organizing for America campaign worked. An example from this year is that OFA never demobilized in Ohio, where Republicans are supposed to win big this year. We'll see whether the Republicans actually sweep there.
The New York Times mentioned that President Obama's last appearance in Cleveland,Ohio didn't fill the rafters in the basketball arena, a metaphor for the Democrats fate this year. However, the White House released a statement that the President has spoke to over 250,000 people at his campaign rallies. The President also had been to Ohio seven times in his short Presidency and only a few weeks before Cleveland drew 35,000 at a massive outdoor rally. So, we will have to wait to see how his candidates fare.
Occasionally on the screen you may have noticed former President Bill Clinton, who was in fine campaign form, delivering a positive message on behalf of the Democrats' agenda. He campaigned in states where Obama has less popularity but have large white working class constituencies. By now, he must have recorded over two dozen campaign stops.
At the beginning of the campaign, the Democrats said they had prepared to prevent another 1994. Almost all media have predicted they have failed in their job. There are too many intangibles yet to make that judgement. Have they learned from the Virginia governor's debacle and the Scott Brown freak show in Massachusetts. Apparently, the Attorney-General of Massachusetts announced today that their turnout would break a record.
On the negative side, all the Democrats' offices in New Hampshire did not have phone service today, the crucial GOTV day. In the previous election,Republican operatives were sentenced to jail for phone tampering. Here, Democrats are fighting off two Republican challenges for House seats and trying to keep the state house.
Normally a high turnout election favors Democrats. Republicans count on a low turnout of minorities, college students and low-income earners in a mid-term. They are banking on a majority of white males, the wealthier Americans, and now senior citizens (which doesn't make sense to me.) Usually the demographic spread in a mid-term favors Republicans, but the preliminary reports show that at least a good portion of Obama's base is turning out. The one area where the Democrats are getting killed is with Independents, who are moving toward Republicans by double-digits.
I'm not sure we will know who will win the House until late, if at all, tomorrow night. We do know the Republicans will win about 30 governorships. This is largely the handiwork of Haley Barbour, the Governor of Mississippi and former RNC chair. Until recently, Barbour has kept his head down and avoided all the controversy over the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Crossroads America.
One question I have is how effective are robocalls? Republicans are robocalling like crazy and lying like crazy about their opponent. I just hang up. Who listens and why do both parties use such an obnoxious campaign device? Some one must have done studies showing they work but I have never met anyone who ever admits it.
So Get Out The Vote. Drag your friends to the polls and call them. As Yogi said, "It's not over unti it's over."
Coffee on Election Eve
We finally found out why Electoral-Vote.com has it Republicans 218, Democrats 200 and hasn't moved. It's because there is absolutely no polling on the remaining 17 seats and no way to make an educated guess.
Do Newspaper Endorsements Matter? Tomorrow night we will have a prime example in the Russ Feingold race in Wisconsin. Remarkably, Feingold received the endorsement of every newspaper in the State. I have never heard of that happening ever. While projected to lose, Feingold himself reports a very strong ground game and thousands of volunteers canvassing door-to-door.
It will be interesting to see a disinterested post-mortem on this election in terms of the effect of the GOTV efforts. African-American voters have been mobilized in an unprecedented manner for the mid-terms. High African-American turnouts would affect at least 20 contested House races. After the string of anti-Hispanic ads by Republicans, Hispanic voter turnout in early voting is higher than the past. The Democrats are seriously hurting among whites earning between $30-50,000. What's strange is that Obama's approval rating is largest among the poor and the very rich. But the old Reagan Democrat is not breaking his way.
Anecdotally,reports from around the country on GOTV efforts have been very positive. Organizing for America is pestering me, even asking when I will vote. I voted early here in Virginia. Maybe I have not paid attention to mid-terms before but the number of early voters and the reports around the country seem to indicate a larger than expected turnout. Generally, that difference helps Democrats, but this year has been so strange anything could be read into this.
One test case for tomorrow is the Alan Grayson race against Daniel Webster, a truly freakish Republican who believes in biblical law. Normal pollsters have Webster winning but Grayson's internal polls have him winning. Check this out tomorrow to see what is true.
John Ralston continues his excellent reporting on the Reid-Angle race but now he is descending into the weeds so you can't understand him. I think the gist is still that Reid has a slight edge on the ground. This isn't true among polls.
The other race that has drawn some attention is the Patty Murray-Dino Rossi race in Washington. A poll yesterday has Rossi in a slight lead. This runs counter to almost all the polls to this date. Is it a surge or an outlier. Real election wonks are studying the early voting for clues and they find at the present rate it looks like Murray.
Now if tomorrow really is a tidal wave for Republicans, then you will see candidates like Murray and Feingold lose and be replaced by non-entities. Anything is a guess on the House races. A consensus opinion among pundits is at least a 50 seat gain for Republicans in the House. Reuters already called the House this afternoon for the Republicans.
Just a friendly reminder when Republicans crow some type of mandate, the average of House seats per party for two decades is approximately equal. This also applies for Senate seats. the Democrats had low--I believe 202 seats in the House before 2006. If predictions hold, they would return to that number. In short, the medium-term pattern for Congress has been constant. For every surge,there is a counter-surge.
And throw in this fact of the day, Rasmussen's poll has Obama at a 50% approval rating. So you will turn yourself into a pretzel to come up with some clear message tomorrow.
I still hold to the view that Democrats will get 52-53 seats in the Senate, and possibly 54. I don't see the whole fuss over the last two weeks about Republicans taking the Senate. Remember that was Karl Rove's job and like always he failed. He is an American success story--Fail upwards.
I think Harry Reid will win only because Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin are openly plotting against him.
Public Policy's last poll in Alaska shows how wacky this season is. Joe Miller is in the lead with 37%, Lisa Murkowski and Scott McAdams are tied with 30%. Miller's disapproval rating is 68%, while McAdams is approved by 60%. The Republican Senate Committee is funding ads against McAdams, betting on either Miller or Murkowski. Sarah Palin is having a hissy-fit, claiming a local CBS news reporter was caught on tape saying he hoped to find a sex criminal saying he would vote for Miller. The champion of journalistic ethics Andrew Breibart claims to have the tape. Alaskan media outlets deny it even exists. Probably, Sarah's way of drumming up a sympathy vote for a fascist thug. I'm not exaggerating.
Meanwhile, speaking of thugs, Florida's early voting is overwhelmingly Republican. Even though Alex Sink was ahead by 1 in the last poll of the cycle, this is not good news given that Rick Scott might be the beneficiary.
Looking at North Carolina, what is happening there? Over 900,000 have voted already and the bulk of them are Democrats. Elaine Marshall running against Senator Burr sent e-mails last night painting a hopeful scene. No one predicts she will win or the Democrats.
It looks like Maine will have a teabagger Governor LePage. It'll be a wonder if he knows what a stapler is for.
And let's give it up for Governor Moonbeam. Jerry Brown has opened up an 11-pt. lead over Meg Whitman. Queen Meg decided to give up the Latino vote by saying she thinks her ex-maid should be deported. Barbara Boxer has opened up an 8-pt lead over Carly for California Fiorina.
Republicans plan on recounts in over 40 congressional districts. Look for recounts in Illinois, Nevada, Colorado,Pennsylvania and Alaska.
It'll be interesting to see the Obama and Clinton effects this time. Clinton has been campaigning in New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Both Obama and Clinton paid last minute stops in Pennsylvania for Joe Sestak. Polls show Club of Greed candidate Pat Toomey has opened a lead. However, reports from the ground from the Sestak campaign are favorable. Take your pick.
Colorado shows Bennett and Buck are in a tie. This again comes down to GOTV. Buck benefits because the human fetus amendment is on the ballot, which will drive the religious right to the polls and he is a darling of them. Also on the ballot is a measure to create a welcoming committee for extraterrestrials.
Christine O'Donnell planned to run two 30 minute ads to address the people of Delaware. When one television station didn't run it, she complained that she had been sabotaged. Turns out her campiagn failed to pay for the time. This happened the second time. Maybe tonight she can correctly arrange time--maybe at 3a.m. with Elvira.
I have not commented in my election notes that there are several sane, rational Republicans who will be elected tomorrow. But alas, not enough to assuage our worries that Washington is going to turn into a foodfight.
Today's big story is Politico running comments from Republicans saying that have to destroy Sarah Palin so she doesn't get the party's nomination. I already wrote several months ago that the Romney people on the RNC have all the salacious gossip of Sarah sexual adventures on the 2008 campaign tour. Republican operatives feel that Obama would slaughter her. Over 65% of Americans believe--with reason--that she isn't qualified to be President. Also, Karl Rove took a swipe at her saying her adventure show didn't show the gravitas of a presidential nominee. She rightfully responded that Ron Reagan was on television also--G.E. Theater.
November 3rd begins the 2012 elections in earnest. That actually may save us alot of grief. The Republicans will only grandstand and not take any time to do any serious legislative work. meanwhile Ben Bernacke at the Fed is going to rev up the job creation machine so it won't matter that nothing will pass. Washington is waiting for Obama to whip out his Veto pen on the most obnoxious legislation--like the repeal of healthcare.
Do Newspaper Endorsements Matter? Tomorrow night we will have a prime example in the Russ Feingold race in Wisconsin. Remarkably, Feingold received the endorsement of every newspaper in the State. I have never heard of that happening ever. While projected to lose, Feingold himself reports a very strong ground game and thousands of volunteers canvassing door-to-door.
It will be interesting to see a disinterested post-mortem on this election in terms of the effect of the GOTV efforts. African-American voters have been mobilized in an unprecedented manner for the mid-terms. High African-American turnouts would affect at least 20 contested House races. After the string of anti-Hispanic ads by Republicans, Hispanic voter turnout in early voting is higher than the past. The Democrats are seriously hurting among whites earning between $30-50,000. What's strange is that Obama's approval rating is largest among the poor and the very rich. But the old Reagan Democrat is not breaking his way.
Anecdotally,reports from around the country on GOTV efforts have been very positive. Organizing for America is pestering me, even asking when I will vote. I voted early here in Virginia. Maybe I have not paid attention to mid-terms before but the number of early voters and the reports around the country seem to indicate a larger than expected turnout. Generally, that difference helps Democrats, but this year has been so strange anything could be read into this.
One test case for tomorrow is the Alan Grayson race against Daniel Webster, a truly freakish Republican who believes in biblical law. Normal pollsters have Webster winning but Grayson's internal polls have him winning. Check this out tomorrow to see what is true.
John Ralston continues his excellent reporting on the Reid-Angle race but now he is descending into the weeds so you can't understand him. I think the gist is still that Reid has a slight edge on the ground. This isn't true among polls.
The other race that has drawn some attention is the Patty Murray-Dino Rossi race in Washington. A poll yesterday has Rossi in a slight lead. This runs counter to almost all the polls to this date. Is it a surge or an outlier. Real election wonks are studying the early voting for clues and they find at the present rate it looks like Murray.
Now if tomorrow really is a tidal wave for Republicans, then you will see candidates like Murray and Feingold lose and be replaced by non-entities. Anything is a guess on the House races. A consensus opinion among pundits is at least a 50 seat gain for Republicans in the House. Reuters already called the House this afternoon for the Republicans.
Just a friendly reminder when Republicans crow some type of mandate, the average of House seats per party for two decades is approximately equal. This also applies for Senate seats. the Democrats had low--I believe 202 seats in the House before 2006. If predictions hold, they would return to that number. In short, the medium-term pattern for Congress has been constant. For every surge,there is a counter-surge.
And throw in this fact of the day, Rasmussen's poll has Obama at a 50% approval rating. So you will turn yourself into a pretzel to come up with some clear message tomorrow.
I still hold to the view that Democrats will get 52-53 seats in the Senate, and possibly 54. I don't see the whole fuss over the last two weeks about Republicans taking the Senate. Remember that was Karl Rove's job and like always he failed. He is an American success story--Fail upwards.
I think Harry Reid will win only because Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin are openly plotting against him.
Public Policy's last poll in Alaska shows how wacky this season is. Joe Miller is in the lead with 37%, Lisa Murkowski and Scott McAdams are tied with 30%. Miller's disapproval rating is 68%, while McAdams is approved by 60%. The Republican Senate Committee is funding ads against McAdams, betting on either Miller or Murkowski. Sarah Palin is having a hissy-fit, claiming a local CBS news reporter was caught on tape saying he hoped to find a sex criminal saying he would vote for Miller. The champion of journalistic ethics Andrew Breibart claims to have the tape. Alaskan media outlets deny it even exists. Probably, Sarah's way of drumming up a sympathy vote for a fascist thug. I'm not exaggerating.
Meanwhile, speaking of thugs, Florida's early voting is overwhelmingly Republican. Even though Alex Sink was ahead by 1 in the last poll of the cycle, this is not good news given that Rick Scott might be the beneficiary.
Looking at North Carolina, what is happening there? Over 900,000 have voted already and the bulk of them are Democrats. Elaine Marshall running against Senator Burr sent e-mails last night painting a hopeful scene. No one predicts she will win or the Democrats.
It looks like Maine will have a teabagger Governor LePage. It'll be a wonder if he knows what a stapler is for.
And let's give it up for Governor Moonbeam. Jerry Brown has opened up an 11-pt. lead over Meg Whitman. Queen Meg decided to give up the Latino vote by saying she thinks her ex-maid should be deported. Barbara Boxer has opened up an 8-pt lead over Carly for California Fiorina.
Republicans plan on recounts in over 40 congressional districts. Look for recounts in Illinois, Nevada, Colorado,Pennsylvania and Alaska.
It'll be interesting to see the Obama and Clinton effects this time. Clinton has been campaigning in New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Both Obama and Clinton paid last minute stops in Pennsylvania for Joe Sestak. Polls show Club of Greed candidate Pat Toomey has opened a lead. However, reports from the ground from the Sestak campaign are favorable. Take your pick.
Colorado shows Bennett and Buck are in a tie. This again comes down to GOTV. Buck benefits because the human fetus amendment is on the ballot, which will drive the religious right to the polls and he is a darling of them. Also on the ballot is a measure to create a welcoming committee for extraterrestrials.
Christine O'Donnell planned to run two 30 minute ads to address the people of Delaware. When one television station didn't run it, she complained that she had been sabotaged. Turns out her campiagn failed to pay for the time. This happened the second time. Maybe tonight she can correctly arrange time--maybe at 3a.m. with Elvira.
I have not commented in my election notes that there are several sane, rational Republicans who will be elected tomorrow. But alas, not enough to assuage our worries that Washington is going to turn into a foodfight.
Today's big story is Politico running comments from Republicans saying that have to destroy Sarah Palin so she doesn't get the party's nomination. I already wrote several months ago that the Romney people on the RNC have all the salacious gossip of Sarah sexual adventures on the 2008 campaign tour. Republican operatives feel that Obama would slaughter her. Over 65% of Americans believe--with reason--that she isn't qualified to be President. Also, Karl Rove took a swipe at her saying her adventure show didn't show the gravitas of a presidential nominee. She rightfully responded that Ron Reagan was on television also--G.E. Theater.
November 3rd begins the 2012 elections in earnest. That actually may save us alot of grief. The Republicans will only grandstand and not take any time to do any serious legislative work. meanwhile Ben Bernacke at the Fed is going to rev up the job creation machine so it won't matter that nothing will pass. Washington is waiting for Obama to whip out his Veto pen on the most obnoxious legislation--like the repeal of healthcare.
What Me Worry?
Forget what the elections mean for Americans, think about how they are perceived abroad. Our allies in the developed world thought we were ridiculous with our healthcare debate. What society would let people go bankrupt because they were sick? Or after the 2008 collapse of the global economic system, how could you possibly be against wall street reform? Now they see millions of foreclosures that are of dubious legal merit that may force another banking crisis. Why would you want to be associated with people who can't manage their own society in a just and fair way? People forget that Hurricane Katrina was a major blow to America's prestige abroad. With all the riches America has, how come it allowed its most vulnerable to die in a major natural disaster? If America can not handle this in its own territory, why should it have any say in managing the world?
But John Bertlesen wrote for Friday's Asian Sentinel how the rising tide of wilful ignorance threatens the foundation of the United States. He sees the impulse among the right to banish knowledge as a means for securing political power as a dangerous strategy that can undermine and even destroy the fabric of society.
Here wants us to consider the following:
*Despite the fact that the National Academy of Sciences unequivocally concluded the human activities are responsible for much of recent global warming, 77% of all House Republicans refuse to believe it. Of the 20 Republican Senate candidates in contested elections, 19 question the science of global warming and oppose any comprehensive legislation to deal with it.
*Just 44% of Americans,according to 2007 Gallup poll, stated that they accepted Drawin's theory of evolution, compared with 78% in Japan, 70% in Europe and 69% in China. I am sure the percentage of Americans has dropped even further.
*According to the National Endowment for the Arts, fewer than half of adult Americans had read any work of fiction or poetry in the preceding year--no detective novels, romances or even the "rapture" novels beloved by the religious right. Only 57% had read any kind of nonfiction work.
*49% of US adults do not know how long it takes the Earth to revolve around the Sun. According to the ACT College Readiness report, 78% of high school graduates did not meet the readiness benchmark levels for one or more entry-level college courses in math, science, reading and English.
*Although almost 90% of Americans say they are religious, and 96% of them own a Bible,few apparently have read it. According to Pew, the majority of Americans don't know that Genesis in the first book of the Bible. Half of high school seniors think Sodom and Gomorrah were a married couple. One in 10 Americans believes that Joan of Arc was Noah's wife.
*The National Science Board's "Science and Engineering Indicators 2006" found that more than 20% of Anericans believed in witches and 29% believed in haunted houses.
America may pay dearly for its willful decision to turn away from scientific enquiry. For example, according to a new report by the National Science Foundation titled "Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited:Rapidly Approaching Category 5, the U.S. now ranks 22nd among the world's nations in density of broadband internet penetration and 72nd in the density of mobile telephone subscriptions. In 2009, 51 percent of students studying physical sciences and engineering in US graduate schools were foreign, not domestic. 69% of American public school students in 5th through 8th grade are taught mathematics by a teacher wityhout a degree or certificate in mathematics. 93% of students are taught physical science by a teacher without a degree or certificate in the physical sciences.
The disaster continues throughout the National Science Foundation report, part of which was censored so as to shield the public and the internatinal community from the dire shape we are in.
As we have seen with the teabaggers and the extreme right in the United States, there is a joyous pride in one's own parochialism and intellectual limitations.
So don't be surpised about tomorrow's elections. It's a protest vote against Obama because he's an elitist who reads.
But John Bertlesen wrote for Friday's Asian Sentinel how the rising tide of wilful ignorance threatens the foundation of the United States. He sees the impulse among the right to banish knowledge as a means for securing political power as a dangerous strategy that can undermine and even destroy the fabric of society.
Here wants us to consider the following:
*Despite the fact that the National Academy of Sciences unequivocally concluded the human activities are responsible for much of recent global warming, 77% of all House Republicans refuse to believe it. Of the 20 Republican Senate candidates in contested elections, 19 question the science of global warming and oppose any comprehensive legislation to deal with it.
*Just 44% of Americans,according to 2007 Gallup poll, stated that they accepted Drawin's theory of evolution, compared with 78% in Japan, 70% in Europe and 69% in China. I am sure the percentage of Americans has dropped even further.
*According to the National Endowment for the Arts, fewer than half of adult Americans had read any work of fiction or poetry in the preceding year--no detective novels, romances or even the "rapture" novels beloved by the religious right. Only 57% had read any kind of nonfiction work.
*49% of US adults do not know how long it takes the Earth to revolve around the Sun. According to the ACT College Readiness report, 78% of high school graduates did not meet the readiness benchmark levels for one or more entry-level college courses in math, science, reading and English.
*Although almost 90% of Americans say they are religious, and 96% of them own a Bible,few apparently have read it. According to Pew, the majority of Americans don't know that Genesis in the first book of the Bible. Half of high school seniors think Sodom and Gomorrah were a married couple. One in 10 Americans believes that Joan of Arc was Noah's wife.
*The National Science Board's "Science and Engineering Indicators 2006" found that more than 20% of Anericans believed in witches and 29% believed in haunted houses.
America may pay dearly for its willful decision to turn away from scientific enquiry. For example, according to a new report by the National Science Foundation titled "Rising Above the Gathering Storm, Revisited:Rapidly Approaching Category 5, the U.S. now ranks 22nd among the world's nations in density of broadband internet penetration and 72nd in the density of mobile telephone subscriptions. In 2009, 51 percent of students studying physical sciences and engineering in US graduate schools were foreign, not domestic. 69% of American public school students in 5th through 8th grade are taught mathematics by a teacher wityhout a degree or certificate in mathematics. 93% of students are taught physical science by a teacher without a degree or certificate in the physical sciences.
The disaster continues throughout the National Science Foundation report, part of which was censored so as to shield the public and the internatinal community from the dire shape we are in.
As we have seen with the teabaggers and the extreme right in the United States, there is a joyous pride in one's own parochialism and intellectual limitations.
So don't be surpised about tomorrow's elections. It's a protest vote against Obama because he's an elitist who reads.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Stewart/Colbert Crush Beck
Estimating yesterday's crowd size, Stephen Colbert said,"Six billion". spoofing the Beckites' claim of 1 million for their Restore Honor rally. Colbert returned to the scene of his first crime, testifying on immigration on the Hill. If Washington pundits legitimize the teabaggers, they absolutely, totally don't have a clue at what went on at yesterday's rally, which CBS estimates drew 250,000 but probably much more than that. Politics USA wrote yesterday that the John Stewart/ Colbert Show drew twice or as many as three times Glenn Beck's crowd. And from what I could observe it outdrew the One Nation rally.
The National Park Service offered the idea that the rally surpassed 300,000. From the capitol building to the Washington Monument is impressive. The two previous rallies around the Lincoln Memorial had to contend with the reflecting pool and it's clear from the photos that this was more massive.
When I expressed my doubts to my son that many people would show up, he said that friends of his were coming from Ohio for this. He said that all his fellow college students get their news from John Stewart and Stephen Colbert. In fact, a whole generation turned in to see John Stewart's interview with Barack Obama before the rally. A fact that escaped everyone in Washington.D.C.
Depending on your age and taste, the rally had something for everyone. An aging baby-boomer wrote that seeing Tony Bennett made his day. For fans of the Captain and the L.A. Lakers, Stephen Colbert's attack of Muslims brought the reposte by John Stewart that all Muslims aren't bad. "How about this guy?" And on walks Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The array of signs brought home the goof on the teabagger crowd--posters of Colbert as Hitler, a smiley face with a Hitler moustache, an aging hippie with a sign,"No Socialists Here", a Muslim woman with a sign,"I'm Muslim but I also fear terrorists", and a slew of takes on the idea of sane politics.
In the next few days, you will read more drivel about the rally than you can imagine. This morning's post had an op-ed ,which said that one can hope for civility but that doesn't mean one accepts the liberal politics of the DNC. We were assured that the intrepid reporter interviewed many at the rally who were liberals. Days before Washington pundits begged John Stewart to cancel the rally because these were serious times and the political decisions to be made were heavy. What was interesting is to see how narcissistic all the commentators were, trying to somehow outsmart John Stewart. Perhaps, one of the more honest comments was from Howard Kurtz who tweeted that he had no idea how all these people got here and what they were doing. Andy Borowitz upped the tweet by posting, "Fox News estimates crowd size at 7."
Remember Washington does not do irony, sarcasm or humor very well. Gloria Bolger at CNN sniffed,"Do these people even vote?" What people will avoid in the next few days is that the rally just destroyed the whole image of the Glenn Beck pretense of wrapping patriotism around a fundamentalist religious concept. The Beck follies were termed "historic" by Rush Limbaugh, Fox News and the other right-wing talk shows. They just got owned by two comedians, who did it all much better with wit.
Frank Rich's column today in the New York Times is about how the teabaggers are going to get owned by the Republican party. Rich reviews the actual strength of the teabaggers--about 2% of the population--and the findings of the Washington Post, which found that of the several thousand chapters the average take was $800. for this year's elections. He points out that the real Teabag operation,as well knew, was engineered by the Koch Brothers and Dick Armey. None of the Republicans who used the teabaggers have any intention of letting these people interfere with their agenda of tax cuts for the wealthy and the elimination of regulations demanded by their corporate masters. Rich remarks how repulsive Republicans like Mitch McConnell find Jim DeMint's demand the U.S. adopt biblical law. They were a good show that propelled the necessary media narrative that the Republicans were not the same people who crashed the economy and ran up $12 trillion in debt. To this degree, Republicans have been masterful in changing the storyline.
A Bloomberg poll reports that the vast majority of Americans really believe that Barack Obama raised their taxes, despite the real world fact that 90% of Americans really got a tax break. The majority also believe that it was Barack Obama that created the TARP program, not George W. Bush, and also believe that the program didn't pay back the money. The absolute confusion of the American voter on economic reality is staggering and ,unfortunately, will aid the Republicans.
The torrent of ads by Karl Rove and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce actually pedal the myth that Obama's policies are killing jobs, even though Obama has surpassed Rove's boss's record in job creation in only 20 months. The propaganda against the stimulus program has been astonishing and ,unfortunately, the administration has not kept up its educational effort on this front. A few months ago, they had launched a tour by Joe Biden and statistics by leading economists about the number of jobs saved and created, the millions of children who received health care, and the strengthening of state governments. All that has clearly not withstood the assault by the anonymous private and foreign donors.
Dana Milbank writes today about where are the adults in the Republican Party. Even right-winger Barry Goldwater said that essence of holding a post in Congress was compromise. The House Republicans have already ruled out any compromise with the Obama Administration. Even veteran Republicans like Judd Gregg said that repealing the healthreform bill was folly but he has been loudly shouted down. Mitch McConnell has clearly said that the whole purpose of Republicans in Congress was to make Barack Obama a one-term President. So much for the nation.
David Broder today pontificated how Barack Obama is clearly the brightest bulb in the political frimament and he stands heads of shoulders above any potential Republican candidates. This is actually an astonishing admission from Broder. But he warns that really nothing can be done about the economy since the markets move in their own time. He says that there will not be a strong enough recovery to propel Obama into a second term. But He says there is one way President Obama can recover--Go to War with Iran. Beam me up, Scottie.
Meanwhile in a new episode of Northern Exposure, the Republicans are jumping ship over Joe Miller and are now pouring resources into the Lisa Murkowski write-in campaign because America's Hero , Scott McAdams, stands a chance of winning. The Alaskan judges are trying to get on board by ruling that people can have assistance in filing out the write-in ballots. Apparently, Joe Miller has stepped into it big time. When he was a federal magistrate, he was obligated by law to list all his assets or face jail-time. It turns out that not only did he omit the 40 acres and a the two-story house he owned on his FEC filing , but also on the form he submitted when he was a judge. Big Problem.
In Nevada, it is wild and woolly. John Ralston writes in the Las Vegas Sun that virtually everything is running against Harry Reid this year. But he expects Harry to pull it out. He recites Harry's loss in the Senate race in the 1970s, his loss for mayor, and his slim margins of victory ever since. Ralston claims that Reid needs to keep Angle's lead among independents to single digit (something he is not doing right now) but that his ground game is outstanding this year and that he leads in the early voting.
In California, Barbara Boxer is performing just as she has done historically. Slow start, often behind, and gradually over the period of the campaign open enough of a lead to win. It's nice to know something is working normally this year.
Charles Cook yesterday wrote that Republicans have zero chance on taking the Senate this year. He has flipped some of his toss-up states over to the Democrats. He's now sayng that Republicans now might pick up between 6 to 8 seats in the Senate.
Not to be deterred Campaigner Barack Obama returned to the Midway Pleasance, where I used to live, and addressed over 30,000 people in Chicago. (I just love the name, which comes from the old Chicago World's Fair.) He was trying to whip up the crowd to vote for the Governor and the Senate. He had stopped in Philadelphia also but just for a meeting with organizers. And he should hit Ohio today.
The Republicans are banking on taking the governorship of Ohio so as to lay the groundwork for 2012. It looks like Karl Rove will have to return to the scene of his crime. He was served with court papers for a trial on rackeetering, which will look into his activities in the 2004 election and answer questions about his donors in this election. After all the attempts at a Citizens' Arrest by Move-On and other anti-war activist, it took the skill of an elections lawyer to nail him. Unfortunately, for the case, the key witness on fraud in 2004 was a Republican computer hacker, who died in a mysterious plane crash and the hard drive to his computer was never found.
President Obama has spent alot of political capital in Ohio for Governor Strickland. But what may destroy John Kasich is the issue of gun rights. The local NRA will not endorse Kasich because when in congress he received an "F" on gun rights. Ohio gunowners are coming out for Strickland, who they say is far better. This would be one of the few times that the gun issue actually bit a Republican. This may account for Strickland inching ahead in the late polls.
In Florida, Alex Sink , the Democrat, has moved out ahead of Rick Scott. From a simple law and order point of view, it's necessary for her to win.
NPR has been running alot of roundtables on what Washington will look like after the election. A good many of the commentators really do not get the fact that Republicans are serious about not cooperating at all with the Administration. In fact, people are commenting that at least Newt Gingrich learned to cooperate with Bill Clinton, but that there is no one even like Newt around now. One of the first showdowns will be when Congress must raise the debt ceiling of the country. The strong odds are that Republicans will oppose since they have become fiscal conservatives. This will shut the government down to just essential services. Social Security checks will not be paid, government and military pensions will not be paid, Medicare will not be paid and even the larger military budget will not be paid. The question will be how long can the Republicans keep the shutdown going.
Senator Tom Coburn wants Republicans to keep submitting bills to repeal the healthcare bill even though he has publically said they don't have a chance of passing. (P.S. Howard Dean is of the opinion that the healthcare bill can survive without the individual mandate, which conservatives are suing about. On this, Howard is pretty clever but I have no idea what he has in mind.)
The one area people seem to think may produce a solution is on the infrastructure. As of last week, President Obama raised in his weekly address that hope of bipartisan cooperation and specifically mentioned the need to improve our infrastructure so we can compete in the world. The six-year infrastructure program is expiring, which means that our Highway Fund is depleted. The Administration wants to raise the gas tax to fund this but John Boehner claims he has never voted for a tax increase and won't on this occasion. But his master Tom Donoghue of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, says he has all the information that this has to be done or else we will fall behind in global competition. People expect corporations will twist Boehner's arm. Rep. Mica, the lead Republican on this issue, voiced his opinion that infrastructure spending will be a top priority. Even the Chamber knows this will be a massive job creator and Donoghue has said openly that the economy desparately needs it. But it means spending money. So watch this play out.
What I would like to see is that in the lame duck session that the Republicans filibuster the tax proposals of President Obama for the tax cuts for the wealthy and that the White House doesn't compromise and all tax cuts expire. And President Obama use the White House bully pulpit to call out the Republicans and their masters. Quite frankly it would make fiscal sense. Since no one believes he cut taxes in the first place, why would they give the President credit with keeping middle-class tax cuts?
Remember to Get Out the Vote!
The National Park Service offered the idea that the rally surpassed 300,000. From the capitol building to the Washington Monument is impressive. The two previous rallies around the Lincoln Memorial had to contend with the reflecting pool and it's clear from the photos that this was more massive.
When I expressed my doubts to my son that many people would show up, he said that friends of his were coming from Ohio for this. He said that all his fellow college students get their news from John Stewart and Stephen Colbert. In fact, a whole generation turned in to see John Stewart's interview with Barack Obama before the rally. A fact that escaped everyone in Washington.D.C.
Depending on your age and taste, the rally had something for everyone. An aging baby-boomer wrote that seeing Tony Bennett made his day. For fans of the Captain and the L.A. Lakers, Stephen Colbert's attack of Muslims brought the reposte by John Stewart that all Muslims aren't bad. "How about this guy?" And on walks Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The array of signs brought home the goof on the teabagger crowd--posters of Colbert as Hitler, a smiley face with a Hitler moustache, an aging hippie with a sign,"No Socialists Here", a Muslim woman with a sign,"I'm Muslim but I also fear terrorists", and a slew of takes on the idea of sane politics.
In the next few days, you will read more drivel about the rally than you can imagine. This morning's post had an op-ed ,which said that one can hope for civility but that doesn't mean one accepts the liberal politics of the DNC. We were assured that the intrepid reporter interviewed many at the rally who were liberals. Days before Washington pundits begged John Stewart to cancel the rally because these were serious times and the political decisions to be made were heavy. What was interesting is to see how narcissistic all the commentators were, trying to somehow outsmart John Stewart. Perhaps, one of the more honest comments was from Howard Kurtz who tweeted that he had no idea how all these people got here and what they were doing. Andy Borowitz upped the tweet by posting, "Fox News estimates crowd size at 7."
Remember Washington does not do irony, sarcasm or humor very well. Gloria Bolger at CNN sniffed,"Do these people even vote?" What people will avoid in the next few days is that the rally just destroyed the whole image of the Glenn Beck pretense of wrapping patriotism around a fundamentalist religious concept. The Beck follies were termed "historic" by Rush Limbaugh, Fox News and the other right-wing talk shows. They just got owned by two comedians, who did it all much better with wit.
Frank Rich's column today in the New York Times is about how the teabaggers are going to get owned by the Republican party. Rich reviews the actual strength of the teabaggers--about 2% of the population--and the findings of the Washington Post, which found that of the several thousand chapters the average take was $800. for this year's elections. He points out that the real Teabag operation,as well knew, was engineered by the Koch Brothers and Dick Armey. None of the Republicans who used the teabaggers have any intention of letting these people interfere with their agenda of tax cuts for the wealthy and the elimination of regulations demanded by their corporate masters. Rich remarks how repulsive Republicans like Mitch McConnell find Jim DeMint's demand the U.S. adopt biblical law. They were a good show that propelled the necessary media narrative that the Republicans were not the same people who crashed the economy and ran up $12 trillion in debt. To this degree, Republicans have been masterful in changing the storyline.
A Bloomberg poll reports that the vast majority of Americans really believe that Barack Obama raised their taxes, despite the real world fact that 90% of Americans really got a tax break. The majority also believe that it was Barack Obama that created the TARP program, not George W. Bush, and also believe that the program didn't pay back the money. The absolute confusion of the American voter on economic reality is staggering and ,unfortunately, will aid the Republicans.
The torrent of ads by Karl Rove and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce actually pedal the myth that Obama's policies are killing jobs, even though Obama has surpassed Rove's boss's record in job creation in only 20 months. The propaganda against the stimulus program has been astonishing and ,unfortunately, the administration has not kept up its educational effort on this front. A few months ago, they had launched a tour by Joe Biden and statistics by leading economists about the number of jobs saved and created, the millions of children who received health care, and the strengthening of state governments. All that has clearly not withstood the assault by the anonymous private and foreign donors.
Dana Milbank writes today about where are the adults in the Republican Party. Even right-winger Barry Goldwater said that essence of holding a post in Congress was compromise. The House Republicans have already ruled out any compromise with the Obama Administration. Even veteran Republicans like Judd Gregg said that repealing the healthreform bill was folly but he has been loudly shouted down. Mitch McConnell has clearly said that the whole purpose of Republicans in Congress was to make Barack Obama a one-term President. So much for the nation.
David Broder today pontificated how Barack Obama is clearly the brightest bulb in the political frimament and he stands heads of shoulders above any potential Republican candidates. This is actually an astonishing admission from Broder. But he warns that really nothing can be done about the economy since the markets move in their own time. He says that there will not be a strong enough recovery to propel Obama into a second term. But He says there is one way President Obama can recover--Go to War with Iran. Beam me up, Scottie.
Meanwhile in a new episode of Northern Exposure, the Republicans are jumping ship over Joe Miller and are now pouring resources into the Lisa Murkowski write-in campaign because America's Hero , Scott McAdams, stands a chance of winning. The Alaskan judges are trying to get on board by ruling that people can have assistance in filing out the write-in ballots. Apparently, Joe Miller has stepped into it big time. When he was a federal magistrate, he was obligated by law to list all his assets or face jail-time. It turns out that not only did he omit the 40 acres and a the two-story house he owned on his FEC filing , but also on the form he submitted when he was a judge. Big Problem.
In Nevada, it is wild and woolly. John Ralston writes in the Las Vegas Sun that virtually everything is running against Harry Reid this year. But he expects Harry to pull it out. He recites Harry's loss in the Senate race in the 1970s, his loss for mayor, and his slim margins of victory ever since. Ralston claims that Reid needs to keep Angle's lead among independents to single digit (something he is not doing right now) but that his ground game is outstanding this year and that he leads in the early voting.
In California, Barbara Boxer is performing just as she has done historically. Slow start, often behind, and gradually over the period of the campaign open enough of a lead to win. It's nice to know something is working normally this year.
Charles Cook yesterday wrote that Republicans have zero chance on taking the Senate this year. He has flipped some of his toss-up states over to the Democrats. He's now sayng that Republicans now might pick up between 6 to 8 seats in the Senate.
Not to be deterred Campaigner Barack Obama returned to the Midway Pleasance, where I used to live, and addressed over 30,000 people in Chicago. (I just love the name, which comes from the old Chicago World's Fair.) He was trying to whip up the crowd to vote for the Governor and the Senate. He had stopped in Philadelphia also but just for a meeting with organizers. And he should hit Ohio today.
The Republicans are banking on taking the governorship of Ohio so as to lay the groundwork for 2012. It looks like Karl Rove will have to return to the scene of his crime. He was served with court papers for a trial on rackeetering, which will look into his activities in the 2004 election and answer questions about his donors in this election. After all the attempts at a Citizens' Arrest by Move-On and other anti-war activist, it took the skill of an elections lawyer to nail him. Unfortunately, for the case, the key witness on fraud in 2004 was a Republican computer hacker, who died in a mysterious plane crash and the hard drive to his computer was never found.
President Obama has spent alot of political capital in Ohio for Governor Strickland. But what may destroy John Kasich is the issue of gun rights. The local NRA will not endorse Kasich because when in congress he received an "F" on gun rights. Ohio gunowners are coming out for Strickland, who they say is far better. This would be one of the few times that the gun issue actually bit a Republican. This may account for Strickland inching ahead in the late polls.
In Florida, Alex Sink , the Democrat, has moved out ahead of Rick Scott. From a simple law and order point of view, it's necessary for her to win.
NPR has been running alot of roundtables on what Washington will look like after the election. A good many of the commentators really do not get the fact that Republicans are serious about not cooperating at all with the Administration. In fact, people are commenting that at least Newt Gingrich learned to cooperate with Bill Clinton, but that there is no one even like Newt around now. One of the first showdowns will be when Congress must raise the debt ceiling of the country. The strong odds are that Republicans will oppose since they have become fiscal conservatives. This will shut the government down to just essential services. Social Security checks will not be paid, government and military pensions will not be paid, Medicare will not be paid and even the larger military budget will not be paid. The question will be how long can the Republicans keep the shutdown going.
Senator Tom Coburn wants Republicans to keep submitting bills to repeal the healthcare bill even though he has publically said they don't have a chance of passing. (P.S. Howard Dean is of the opinion that the healthcare bill can survive without the individual mandate, which conservatives are suing about. On this, Howard is pretty clever but I have no idea what he has in mind.)
The one area people seem to think may produce a solution is on the infrastructure. As of last week, President Obama raised in his weekly address that hope of bipartisan cooperation and specifically mentioned the need to improve our infrastructure so we can compete in the world. The six-year infrastructure program is expiring, which means that our Highway Fund is depleted. The Administration wants to raise the gas tax to fund this but John Boehner claims he has never voted for a tax increase and won't on this occasion. But his master Tom Donoghue of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, says he has all the information that this has to be done or else we will fall behind in global competition. People expect corporations will twist Boehner's arm. Rep. Mica, the lead Republican on this issue, voiced his opinion that infrastructure spending will be a top priority. Even the Chamber knows this will be a massive job creator and Donoghue has said openly that the economy desparately needs it. But it means spending money. So watch this play out.
What I would like to see is that in the lame duck session that the Republicans filibuster the tax proposals of President Obama for the tax cuts for the wealthy and that the White House doesn't compromise and all tax cuts expire. And President Obama use the White House bully pulpit to call out the Republicans and their masters. Quite frankly it would make fiscal sense. Since no one believes he cut taxes in the first place, why would they give the President credit with keeping middle-class tax cuts?
Remember to Get Out the Vote!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)