Coffee on Election Eve

We finally found out why Electoral-Vote.com has it Republicans 218, Democrats 200 and hasn't moved. It's because there is absolutely no polling on the remaining 17 seats and no way to make an educated guess.

Do Newspaper Endorsements Matter? Tomorrow night we will have a prime example in the Russ Feingold race in Wisconsin. Remarkably, Feingold received the endorsement of every newspaper in the State. I have never heard of that happening ever. While projected to lose, Feingold himself reports a very strong ground game and thousands of volunteers canvassing door-to-door.

It will be interesting to see a disinterested post-mortem on this election in terms of the effect of the GOTV efforts. African-American voters have been mobilized in an unprecedented manner for the mid-terms. High African-American turnouts would affect at least 20 contested House races. After the string of anti-Hispanic ads by Republicans, Hispanic voter turnout in early voting is higher than the past. The Democrats are seriously hurting among whites earning between $30-50,000. What's strange is that Obama's approval rating is largest among the poor and the very rich. But the old Reagan Democrat is not breaking his way.

Anecdotally,reports from around the country on GOTV efforts have been very positive. Organizing for America is pestering me, even asking when I will vote. I voted early here in Virginia. Maybe I have not paid attention to mid-terms before but the number of early voters and the reports around the country seem to indicate a larger than expected turnout. Generally, that difference helps Democrats, but this year has been so strange anything could be read into this.

One test case for tomorrow is the Alan Grayson race against Daniel Webster, a truly freakish Republican who believes in biblical law. Normal pollsters have Webster winning but Grayson's internal polls have him winning. Check this out tomorrow to see what is true.

John Ralston continues his excellent reporting on the Reid-Angle race but now he is descending into the weeds so you can't understand him. I think the gist is still that Reid has a slight edge on the ground. This isn't true among polls.

The other race that has drawn some attention is the Patty Murray-Dino Rossi race in Washington. A poll yesterday has Rossi in a slight lead. This runs counter to almost all the polls to this date. Is it a surge or an outlier. Real election wonks are studying the early voting for clues and they find at the present rate it looks like Murray.

Now if tomorrow really is a tidal wave for Republicans, then you will see candidates like Murray and Feingold lose and be replaced by non-entities. Anything is a guess on the House races. A consensus opinion among pundits is at least a 50 seat gain for Republicans in the House. Reuters already called the House this afternoon for the Republicans.

Just a friendly reminder when Republicans crow some type of mandate, the average of House seats per party for two decades is approximately equal. This also applies for Senate seats. the Democrats had low--I believe 202 seats in the House before 2006. If predictions hold, they would return to that number. In short, the medium-term pattern for Congress has been constant. For every surge,there is a counter-surge.

And throw in this fact of the day, Rasmussen's poll has Obama at a 50% approval rating. So you will turn yourself into a pretzel to come up with some clear message tomorrow.

I still hold to the view that Democrats will get 52-53 seats in the Senate, and possibly 54. I don't see the whole fuss over the last two weeks about Republicans taking the Senate. Remember that was Karl Rove's job and like always he failed. He is an American success story--Fail upwards.

I think Harry Reid will win only because Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin are openly plotting against him.

Public Policy's last poll in Alaska shows how wacky this season is. Joe Miller is in the lead with 37%, Lisa Murkowski and Scott McAdams are tied with 30%. Miller's disapproval rating is 68%, while McAdams is approved by 60%. The Republican Senate Committee is funding ads against McAdams, betting on either Miller or Murkowski. Sarah Palin is having a hissy-fit, claiming a local CBS news reporter was caught on tape saying he hoped to find a sex criminal saying he would vote for Miller. The champion of journalistic ethics Andrew Breibart claims to have the tape. Alaskan media outlets deny it even exists. Probably, Sarah's way of drumming up a sympathy vote for a fascist thug. I'm not exaggerating.

Meanwhile, speaking of thugs, Florida's early voting is overwhelmingly Republican. Even though Alex Sink was ahead by 1 in the last poll of the cycle, this is not good news given that Rick Scott might be the beneficiary.

Looking at North Carolina, what is happening there? Over 900,000 have voted already and the bulk of them are Democrats. Elaine Marshall running against Senator Burr sent e-mails last night painting a hopeful scene. No one predicts she will win or the Democrats.

It looks like Maine will have a teabagger Governor LePage. It'll be a wonder if he knows what a stapler is for.

And let's give it up for Governor Moonbeam. Jerry Brown has opened up an 11-pt. lead over Meg Whitman. Queen Meg decided to give up the Latino vote by saying she thinks her ex-maid should be deported. Barbara Boxer has opened up an 8-pt lead over Carly for California Fiorina.

Republicans plan on recounts in over 40 congressional districts. Look for recounts in Illinois, Nevada, Colorado,Pennsylvania and Alaska.

It'll be interesting to see the Obama and Clinton effects this time. Clinton has been campaigning in New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Connecticut. Both Obama and Clinton paid last minute stops in Pennsylvania for Joe Sestak. Polls show Club of Greed candidate Pat Toomey has opened a lead. However, reports from the ground from the Sestak campaign are favorable. Take your pick.

Colorado shows Bennett and Buck are in a tie. This again comes down to GOTV. Buck benefits because the human fetus amendment is on the ballot, which will drive the religious right to the polls and he is a darling of them. Also on the ballot is a measure to create a welcoming committee for extraterrestrials.

Christine O'Donnell planned to run two 30 minute ads to address the people of Delaware. When one television station didn't run it, she complained that she had been sabotaged. Turns out her campiagn failed to pay for the time. This happened the second time. Maybe tonight she can correctly arrange time--maybe at 3a.m. with Elvira.

I have not commented in my election notes that there are several sane, rational Republicans who will be elected tomorrow. But alas, not enough to assuage our worries that Washington is going to turn into a foodfight.

Today's big story is Politico running comments from Republicans saying that have to destroy Sarah Palin so she doesn't get the party's nomination. I already wrote several months ago that the Romney people on the RNC have all the salacious gossip of Sarah sexual adventures on the 2008 campaign tour. Republican operatives feel that Obama would slaughter her. Over 65% of Americans believe--with reason--that she isn't qualified to be President. Also, Karl Rove took a swipe at her saying her adventure show didn't show the gravitas of a presidential nominee. She rightfully responded that Ron Reagan was on television also--G.E. Theater.

November 3rd begins the 2012 elections in earnest. That actually may save us alot of grief. The Republicans will only grandstand and not take any time to do any serious legislative work. meanwhile Ben Bernacke at the Fed is going to rev up the job creation machine so it won't matter that nothing will pass. Washington is waiting for Obama to whip out his Veto pen on the most obnoxious legislation--like the repeal of healthcare.