Romney Flees Mainland to Win--Hawaii and American Samoa

"We're going to win today." Romney was right. He won Hawaii--45-25 over Santorum and he won the American Samoa.

After his loss in states with 75-80% evangelical voters, Bishop Willard is facing a rocky road forward in Missouri (Saturday), Louisiana (With exorcist governor Vishnu Jindal) and then Illinois, where he has dumped a ton of money.

The media story today is how Willard has picked up a few more delegates and that Newt Gingrich needs to drop out so that it becomes a two-man race. Sneaky. The second choice of Gingrich voters has been Mitt Romney. His dropping out does not automatically benefit Santorum. Besides Newt is still bellowing that he will not drop out.

Rick Santarium's strategy has become clearer the last two days. He is on record for wanting a "brokered convention". His view is that Willard will not make the number of delegates and he believes the convention will opt for an "pure conservative". His and Newt's thinking is that two-thirds of the delegates don't want "the moderate" Mitt Romney and they will come behind a conservative candidate. In terms of raw math at this point, Romney is way ahead but he faces a difficult road ahead and is likely not to roll up the delegates in the races remaining. He has failed to deliver the crushing blow needed to make the Republicans toe the line.

What last night showed was the center of gravity--ideologically--in the Republican Party has moved to the deep south. This is a consequence of the Nixon "Southern Strategy", which aimed to neutralize the Wallace supporters and corral the disenchantment with LBJ's Great Society. Over the years, this has solidified, especially with the infiltration of the fundamentalists into the Republican Party structure.

As we stand, Romney "could" win the nomination without having won the southern states. This creates a divide between the raw, Obama-hating base and the nominee. Republican operatives may see this as an opportunity for Romney to pick up independents on the faulty premise he is a moderate. The way things look right now the "base" is intolerant of this argument and wants an open convention and process.

So for the media, the drama becomes Illinois--a make or break primary for Romney. Romney starts out with a huge money advantage, an Illinois Republican Party that is more moderate than in other states, and a current polling advantage of 4 points. But we have seen that Romney can't seal the deal in the Midwest and he has to resort to muscling local parties for delegates as we saw in Michigan. Southern Illinois tends more to the Southern profile of social conservatives. It will be close. And at this stage close might not be psychologically enough.

Fundies Vote for Froth Mix in Alabama and Mississippi

Money can't buy you love. Willard Romney's team said yesterday they would win at least one and Drudge started the evening with exit polls showing Romney in the lead as the start up of a big night. But it was not to be.

Despite outspending his opponents big time, Romney looks like he has finished third in both primaries.

The question remains at this hour:" what is to become of Newt and his lovely bride Callista?" Newt had strong second place finishes. His manager had said two days ago that Newt would have to win at least one to remain viable. He didn't. And like all candidates before him like Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Newt vowed to fight on to the convention.

Another late evening note, In an Ipsos/reuters poll President Obama hits 50% in an approval rating.

So Rick Santorum becomes the Number 1 Non-Mitt.

Well, That Was Quick!

The sky didn't fall so people can stop peeing in the Wheaties.

Nate Silver suggests there was statistical noise in the polls in the Times and Post and that if you take the Gallup tracking polls and the average of Obama's approval in the last few weeks--this past week looked basically like the previous one.

PPP's new poll for the Dailykos has the Favorable for Obama 48-47 and the Approval Rating 48-49, which shows continual improvement. Don't ask me the difference between favorable and approve.

PPP tweeted in response to the hysteria on the Intertubes that Obama did very well in their weekend polling in PA and North Carolina and don't believe the drop.

The GOP is flogging today that President Obama wants $4 gas. But a closer look at even the Washington Post poll shows that only 18% of the public blame Obama for rising gas prices. Big OIL and Middle Eastern tensions are to name by over two-thirds of the country.

Gallup has Obama at 49% again and reports he has enjoyed his best period of ratings since the death of Bin Laden, who really is still dead. Gallup also reports that Americans feel better about the economy than at any time in four years.

But who knows what happens by late afternoon.

Air Romney

Washingtonmonthly.com has an interesting post this morning about the expenditures for ads in Alabama and Mississippi. Over 91% of all ads in these states for the primaries are bought by Super Pacs. Romney's Restore Our Future purchased 65% of all ads in Alabama and Mississippi.

Some of the statistics are staggering. You have to feel sorry for the citizens in both states. Romney's PAC has run 2,098 times in Alabama through the 11th. His campaign only 279 ads. In Mississippi his Pac ran 1,548 ads and his campaign none.

Romney has spent four times Gingrich in Alabama and three times in Mississippi. Romney has a 7 to 1 edge in Alabama and 5-1 edge over Santorum.

So don't be surprised if money doesn't win out tonight.

Meanwhile, Bishop Willard has ruled Santorum out as Vice President because he wants a Vice-President who is more conservative than he is.

Yesterday Gingrich had to quiet rumors that he had offered Rick Perry the Vice Presidency if he won the nomination.

Romney has been all folksy in the South. He reminded people that he knew many men "who owned NFL players". In short, he knows many people who own NFL teams but he got the regional interest in.

Yesterday was Mitt Romney's 65th birthday. He reminded people he was not applying for Medicare and proceeded to repeat the old Medicare lies about the Obama Administration that the right has been peddling. But no one commented on the fact he is 65 and would be close to 66 when he is sworn into office. He may look fit but do you want someone that age in the White House?

Obama's Approval Ratings Collapse--All Is Lost

So a funny thing happened yesterday, Gallup had President Obama at 49%,tending up from several days at 48%. The New York Times/CBS poll has President Obama hit all-time lows at 41%,just after another positive jobs report. The Washington Post/ABC poll has President Obama underwater again at about 45% but he still beats Romney. The Washington Post poll has women trending back to the GOP because, I guess, they love the idea of transvaginal probes. But their congressional poll shows just the opposite. Democrats being preferred to the GOP and women migrating their way. So what gives?

Rather than saying that high energy prices made Obama's approval ratings collapse overnight like the media narrative claims, let's go for a simple answer. The CBS/NYT poll cut off 4% of Democrats from their last poll and oversampled Republicans. The Washington Post poll was weighted by giving the GOP 7 points. A slight problem--the GOP did not grow within a month that significantly. Right now, the United States is about 43% Democratic,31% Republican and 24%, those pesky and fickle independents.

Since polls are snapshots in time, they can be snapshots that are out of focus. Another way to look at it is that the media narrative will make this presidential election a horse-race to the very end, just like in 2008. This acts as an economic stimulus for the networks. But until Nate the Great and others weigh in, take Obama's collapse with a grain of salt.

It does seem that the GOP has hit a chord by talking about gas prices since they have nothing to resonate with anyone who isn't wealthy. On gas prices, remember 58 cents on the gallon is pure speculation.

A Bloomberg poll today shows that 38% versus 36% of Americans believe they are better off since Obama became President, which is actually a first.

Another poll is out that shows 40% of Americans believe the U.S. will attack Iran this year;39% believe it is unlikely and 20% have no opinion. 59% of Democrats believe it is unlikely and 57% of Republicans believe it is likely.

Frankly, I tend to doubt the United States will attack. Israel might since Bibi Netanyahu has said it is not days or weeks but less than a year. I'll write about some of this later. But if the sanctions are allowed to work and Israel doesn't pull the trigger, the earliest any military action could take place--either under President Obama or a Republican would be next summer. So cool all the war talk.

Peter Beinart has a piece in this issue of Newsweek on "Obama Betrayed His Ideals on Israel". I was struck by the word "ideals". Isn't it nice that we accept the fact that our President has ideals? Can you name recent presidents you thought had ideals? I thought President Obama pandered to the AIPAC crowd but I wouldn't say "sold out his ideals". I hope if he is re-elected he will decline the next invitation to speak there. But don't you want a president with ideals even if he occasionally sells them out?

TOO NICE A DAY. FROM THE VERANDAH

++The Department of Justice has blocked the Texas Voter ID Law.

++A Federal Judge has blocked a Wisconsin Voter ID Law.

++Mississippi voters oppose inter-racial marriage, evolution and think President Obama is a Muslim. Ditto for Alabama to a lesser degree.

++The polling for the Republican primaries shows it is a horse-race in both states. Too close to call.

++Ron Paul did at least get 1 delegate from the US Virgin Islands, which he did win but by only 5 its over Willard.

++Willard seems to have a problem with math. President Obama saved $500 billion in Medicare payments over the next ten years by cracking down on fraud. However, payments to Medicare recipients did not get slashed. This is right out of the Michelle Bachmann playbook. Willard makes Tricky Dick seem truthful.

++The Washington Post this morning published a poll showing that President Obama's approval rating had flipped since a month ago because of gas prices. It also shows that Romney beats him. It also shows that for the first time a majority of Americans expect President Obama to be re-elected. I took the results to show there is a bottom for Obama's support and a ceiling for Romney's. Willard's has been fairly consistent.

++Michael Steele, former RNC head, said he didn't plan for the primaries to lead to a brokered convention but he would to mind.

++Note to the reader about the 2012 Presidential election:

Sad to say but all that will matter occur the period after Labor Day.

No polls really matter until May.

The Debates will be actually even because there is such low expectations for the Republican and President Obama is expected to crush Romney. If Romney makes a funny joke, he will win the debate because he made himself look human.

Letting the birther nonsense boil on the edges, the Romney line will be Obama is a nice man (with appropriate condescension and sneer) but he is over his head.

The election will probably swing on a foreign crisis, not the economy or healthcare.

You will get the impression by the end of the election season that President Obama is running for President the first time,there will be no recognition of his achievements and instead the GOP will try to float the lines from Sarah Palin's 2008 rallies. And who knows whether this will be as successful?

++This election will be unusual thanks to Citizens United because you will see more exposure and criticism of individuals in the SuperPacs. For Republicans, there is no party left. Even during the primary, it is clear it is a war of SuperPacs. The Romney campaign, for instance, is running low on funds so he has to be able to depend on his Super Pac. So it is fair game that one of his billionaire backers is criticized for saying the "wealthy have too little influence in the elections." We should expect more of this in the general election--the assumption that very wealthy crackpots are surrogates of the candidate.

++Republican operatives claim the drawn out process makes it more difficult to transition into the general election. It actually may work to their advantage because total disgust with the process encourages the cynicism for the electorate and depresses the turnout--which has been their desire from the beginning.

Daylight Savings Time and Sunday at the Last Manatee

++Remember Nate the Great Silver's magic number--155,000. The U.S. economy has to grow on the average of 155,000 per month until election for President Obama to win re-election.

++Rasmussen hasn't morphed yet into his "accurate mode". He is still in his "narrative-setting" phase with today's Tracking poll, which shows Obama plunging in his approval rating and trailing Romney nationwide. Pretty rapid fall from 50% approval rating and leading Romney by 4. Or maybe you can credit Drudge for printing it, since Matt is the leading Romney blog site.

The problem with the poll is that it is at such a variance to the most recent polls ,not just Rasmussen's own.

++Ron Paul crushed the opposition in winning the U.S Virgin Islands caucus. Of course, it had less voters--334--than a small high school election but it shows momentum. Only problem is that Romney got the lion's share of the delegates even though he lost by 30%.

++Romney won the sweatshop primary in the Northern Marianas Islands and Guam. He also won Dick Cheney's home state of Wyoming.

++Nate Silver, who is not batting a thousand after he called Ohio for Santorum,has posted the odds for the next exciting contests. He has it Romney in Mississippi at 69% chance over Gingrich, and Gingrich at 41% over Romney in Alabama. Nate has Santorum at 79% to take Scott Walker's Wisconsin. A note: Nate Silver warns that polls are only accurate two days before a primary so anything goes until tomorrow.

++But this doesn't matter because the GOP has introduced Plan B in the House. Walter Jones of North Carolina filed this past week a bill to impeach President Obama on Article II, Section 4 of the Constitution for using force in Libya without obtaining a Declaration of War from Congress.

++But that hasn't stopped John McCain criticizing President Obama for dissing all the Republicans who speak loosely of attacking Iran. I guess it depends on which war you favor.

++Rush Limbaugh has lost over 98 sponsors this past week since the Sandra Fluke attack. The bundler of advertisers has sent out a memo warning sponsors not to back controversial programs for fear of blowback from their customers. The question will be how the Limbaugh situation affects the down ticket shows of the Little Rushes like Michael Savage, Mark Levin, Sean Hannity and others.

++Hapless Harry Reid predicts the Democrats will hold the Senate. This is in light of the unexpected retirement of Olympia Snowe and Bob Kerrey decided to run in Nebraska. I'm not so sure.

++Rush Limbaugh did make a good observation this week. He said that the Republicans must focus their fear and anger for the 2012 election. He downplayed Willard Romney's chances of succeeding in that goal. That pretty much sums up the platform of the GOP--fear and anger. I imagine you could gin up enough of it with the level of attacks ads we can expect.

++I Object! George Vernon Hudson, a 19th century entomologist, has been credited with inventing Daylight Savings Time. Ridiculed when he first proposed it, he lived to see it adopted in 1927. But the real inventor of Daylight Savings Time was Ben Franklin who proposed it in 1784.