The Green Revolution Continues

On December 20, Grand Ayatollah Ali Hossein Montazari died at the age of 87. His death prompted large crowds to mourn his passing and protest the current regime. Today, Ali Mousavi, the nephew of the opposition leader, was killed by security police and the opposition rallies spread throughout Iran. For the next three months, the Iranian regime will face continued opposition activity as both the secular and religious calender runs against their favor. We will have the 40th day aniversary of the death of the 3rd Shia Imam, celebrated today on Ashura; the 40th anniversary of those killed today (February15), the February 11th anniversary of the Revolution and the March ending of the various subsidies for food and gas by the Ahmadinejad regime.

Beginning with his Nobel Prize speech,President Obama and his administration has been racheting up the rhetoric against Iran. Today, they condemned the repression of the opposition demonstrations. On Montazari's death, the White House said he was " a figure internationally respected for his unwavering commitment to universal rights." Tame maybe but remember it was Khamenei that was chosen to become Supreme Leader over the more spiritually qualified Montazari. In his last year, Ayatollah Montazari backed the opposition's charges that the June 12 elections were fraudulent and subsequently issued a fatwa calling Ahmadinejad's regime illegitimate. He was the one who coined the phrase I have often used, the Islamic Republic of Iran is neither Islamic nor a Republic."

Born to a peasant family in Najafabad in Istahan Province, Montazari eventually became the center of the clerical network, which brought down the Shah and he was the man responsible on the ground while Khomeini was in his Paris exile. He had been imprisoned by the Shah in 1974 and released in 1978. One of the authors of the current Iranian Constitution and one of the spiritual founders of the IslamicRepublic, Montazari broke with Khomeini just before his June 1989 death over the wanton execution of members of the MEK, whom even in his last interview he claimed had not been involved in any attacks on the regime. As a result, Monatazari lost his chance to become Supreme Leader, even though the opposition suggested it this year as a way to remove Khamenei.

Montazari criticized the regime over the last twenty-five years. In 1997, he was put under house arrest because he denounced the dictatorial power of Khamenei. While he seemed to emerge this past year, he had previously issued fatwas against suicide bombing, terrorism and nuclear weapons. This past year he personally apologized for the hostage taking at the American embassy during the Revolution and openly denounced Iran's nuclear program.

During the time of his house arrest, I remember two intrepid students travelling to his house and sending him questions over the wall about a host of religious topics. Their photo of a grey-haired man behind a closed door was the only image of him I had seen for years. he had become old and frail, suffering from a chronic heart condition. But his answers to the students' questions were clear, crisps and concise. Although never a liberal democrat, he did evolve to consider the need for woman's rights in his country as well as the need to reform the very system he helped create. It was his initiative that led to the legalization of political parties in the Islamic Republic, although under strict regulation. He took a grandfatherly approach to the young man and woman who sent their questions over the wall and used a scholar's mind to answer them.

The mourning was not simply for a real spiritual leader but also for a past that was never realized. Today's opposition rallies no longer even mention Ahmadinejad but focus their ire at Khamenei, the pretender. Pictures of the Iranian people turning against the Bassij and security forces mark the clear break with the peaceful demonstrations after the election. In true Iranian government tradition, the new rallies are blamed against the MEK, the catch-all scapegoat for any unrest in the country.

As we know with democratic revolutions, you can not tell people when the right time is to become free. I expect we will see a tumultous three months ahead. It's also important that American politicians keep their heads about them and encourage the Iranian people without pretending that there is any military solution to their country's problems. Already, there have been op-eds in the New York Times and elsewhere advocating a military approach to Iran because we tend not to see the forest beyond the trees. No doubt there will be many that will beat the war drums, particularly on the Republican side of the aisle. But the Obama Administration's approach to date has been prudent--further isolating the regime from the world community and from their own people.