Signs of Things to Come

Expect Republicans to come back from recess and start ramping up the whole discussion on the deficit. It's important to change focus now before people get wind of the significance of the passage of the health reform bill.

But also expect President Obama to address the deficit issue in the State of the Union and point to the discussions in the Senate about creating a bipartisan panel to make recommendations on reducing the deficit.

Don't expect Nancy Pelosi to take the lead this coming year on legislation as the House has done this past year. The House has gotten out in front of so many issues that she fears that some of her members will pay at the polls in 2010.

Expect alot of grandstanding on the debate on repealing Don't Ask Don't Tell for the military. This should be a red flag for social conservatives and something they can hang their hat on while other issues fade.

Financial reforms will reach some conclusions in the Senate as witnessed by today's joint statement by Dodd and Shelby but expect a fight over Obama's plan to create a Consumer Protection type Agency.

The fun debate will be on the expiration of the Bush tax cuts scheduled for this year. It will be fascinating to watch while members argue for maintaining the top rate cuts for the wealthy.

Republicans have three months to pound away on the failure of the stimulus plan. While it's part of the mantra of Republicans running in 2010 this will have a short shelf life as the plan kicks in by the summer and fall of 2010. Then the argument becomes whether the recovery is real or simply inflated by government programs.

The key question in the economy is whether major corporations and bankers can hold onto their massive levels of cash without investing in the economy. I bet they can not.

The financial collapse of many states like California will dominate the news next year.

Republicans will mount an intense drive against any Climate Change Legislation on the grounds it kills jobs. But I expect some bill to pass that will support alternative energy sources. I don't expect any significant commitments from the United States, despite President Obama keeping the Copenhagen Talks from totally collapsing.

The main foreign policy issue next year will be Iran with a smaller sideshow in Georgia. Not only will be the international community have to formulate a new approach once talks over the nuclear issue fail but we may really be seeing the terminal throes of the regime itself, which will make the situation scarier. The Georgia issue will be kept alive by Senators Lugar and McCain. Republicans will demand the arming of Georgia against Russian aggression.

Finally, I expect we will see one of the infamous Al Qaida leaders meet their just reward.