Israel's Big Fail

Where to begin with Israel's attack on the Gaza flotilla? I'm getting old and soft. I don't believe you get anywhere by starving out your adversaries. The embargo against Gaza, contrary to the pundits in the Beltway, has created a humanitarian crisis as documented by every international aid agency. And there is no evidence that it has lessened the hold of Hamas on the area. In fact, the constant impoverishing of the population makes it certain that an alternative will not arise anytime soon.

I spent the last two days watching videos from the activists and the Israeli government accounts. Israel is real lucky that the Holocaust survivor who wanted to come had to stay behind in Crete because of illness. Can you imagine the PR disaster of a Holocaust survivor being killed by Israeli commandos? The optics of this whole enterprise was an unmitigated disaster for Israel with a break with their ally, Turkey, almost inevitable.

Apparently, within the controlled media world in Israel, no one has heard of YouTube or instant communications. The Israeli television claimed that the flotilla was being funded and organized by Islamists. Israeli peace activists had the Turkish charity on the phone responding simulatenously to these charges. The charity in question is linked to the governing party of Turkey, which as of yesterday was aligned with Israel. Although to be frank, it probably is islamist. Israeli officials maintained that they feared the ship contained arms only to be refuted by the Turkish customs officials who explained how and why the government inspected the ship to ensure there would be no arms. The Israeli version was widely broadcast in the United States. David Frum claimed that Hamas could use the cement on the ship for military purposes. (Like building catapults to sling cement slabs across the border.)

Then the use of force, Objective observers claimed that the Israeli should have just escorted the boat to Gaza and then mounted it. Originally, Israeli officials claimed that the commandos were just using paint guns on the activists until they were shot upon. Unfortunately, the guns found were Israeli handguns activists took away from the commandos. This morning, Israeli diplomats admitted the government decided to use force because the ship was too big. American tabloids like the New York Post claimed terrorists were at the helm and were trying to lynch the commandos. The attack weapons seemed to be wrenches and pipes against automatic weapons, hardly the material for overkill.

The first real problem Israel faced in the optics department were the actual activists on board. Now they say several dozen were jihadists, which may ultimately prove to be true. But the first interviews we got to see were former Ambassador Peck calmly describing being waken at 4am by israeli commandos in full combat gear and calling the seizure of the ship an act of piracy. Only hours before Al Jazeera interviewed a former woman Colonel in the American military and former State Department official who was on board talking about the humanitarian mission to Gaza. Next we heard from two German MPs, who were shaken and claimed there were no weapons on board and none of the passengers or organizers fired any weapons. Then, lo and behold, an Israeli MP waltzes off the ship to denounce the whole operation. So far Israeli Foreign MinisterAvrigdor Lieberman's claim Al Qaeda was on board didn't materialize and even the Israeli press laughed at him. Oh, yes, there was a US naval veteran who had survived the Israeli attack and sinking of the U.S.S. Liberty in 1967. Quite a collection.

Even pro-Israeli websites Stratfor and Debka questioned why the Israelis, knowing the flotilla was a provocative act, fell right into the trap. From Israel, the decision to seize the ship was made by the full cabinet a week before but as the Israeli press noted, the "inner cabinet" or the war cabinet never made the decision as required by protocol. Stratfor went on to say that the Israelis actually gave the Palestinians an Exodus moment, after the legendary tale of the ship Exodus immortalized in film.

For those of us who remember Entebbe, this was not it. The vaunted Israeli commandos blew this operation in ways the world has not seen before. There seems to be a new level of Israeli incompetence we have not seen before. Previously, Israeli agents assassinated an Hamas leader in Dubai. American conservatives gleefully sent me the videos but the situation was actually disturbing. The agents were all caught on surveillance cameras and they used real European passports, which sparked public diplomatic inquiries. Either the Israelis wanted to be blatant about the hit or were incredibly clumsy and stupid. I opt for the latter. These were no Steven Spielberg Mossad agents.

The flotilla incident immediately sparked off some fascinating debates on international law. For instance, the ship was flying a Turkish flag, hence it was a ship of a NATO country. Under Article 5 of NATO, an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all. NATO naturally had to meet to confer on the issue, something any Israeli strategist should avoid at any cost.

Then we have the issue of piracy. Remember the bad joke,"What do you call the P.L.O.? Push Leon Overboard. The seizure of a passenger ship at sea by the PLO and their throwing wheelchair bound Leon Klinghoffer overboard prompted the international community to re-write the laws on piracy, which would make the Israeli actions violations of the very laws they proposed. Israeli cabinet members seemed to be channeling their inner Dick Cheney by saying Israel could do whatever it felt necessary on the high seas.

We also had the Irish Prime Minister immediately weigh in claiming the Israelis had kidnapped an Irish national when they seized the ship. And of course, a spate of demonstrations erupted throughout the world against Israeli embassies.

Meanwhile Hillary Clinton was on the phone 24/7 to heads of state to dial down the anti-Israeli rhetoric only to comment later, "People are just furious." Robert Gibbs tried to put out an anodyne statement, only admitting under questioning, "We're the only ones that believe the Israelis." Bibi Netanyahu's visit from Canada to kiss and make up with Barack Obama was cancelled by the Administration. The visit was to coincide with the resumption of proximity talks with Palestinians.

After the initial support of Israel by columnists, breaks have occurred in the punditry recognizing this event was a pure disaster for Israel. The Weekly Standard lamely tried to cover its behind with a statement from Sarah Palin about the lamestream media and Obama strengthening the enemies of Israel. While the neo-cons marched together with Israel, non-ideological Jewish commentators lamented the situation and urged, at best, it was too soon to judge. Ken Adelman actually urged a time-out and invoked the Hebrew term for a period of "self-reflection" for both Americans and Israelis. The commentary today now concerned how do you handle it when your ally screws up royally.

Jimmy Carter was soundly criticized when he talked about the Israeli-Palestinian problem using the loaded word "apartheid". Strangely, this episode reminds me of the waning days of the apartheid regime in South Africa--not the content but the feel. Here you have a situation where on the northern border of Israel Syria has replenished the Hezbollah with thousands of Scud missiles and Iran barks about wiping the country off the map and Israel blunders by reinforcing its disproportionate response to the Palestinians. The country has literally only one friend left--the United States--and is globally isolated. This was only superficially true before because they enjoyed covert relations with most of the Arab states and polite relations with Europe. In South Africa, after the usual braggadocio, they understood they could not withstand the isolation. They had to change.

Back up to Joe Biden's trip to Israel earlier in the year. Biden wanted Bibi to suspend the settlements on the West Bank and in Jerusalem. If Israel returned to proximity talks with the Palestinians, they would receive simultaneous recognition by all the Arab states. That's just for talking. Instead, strengthened by visiting right-wing visitors from the United States, Bibi stiffed the Vice President. Now today,after the Gaza flotilla incident,that opportunity may have been lost for some time to come.

The timing of this event couldn't have been worse. The United States had rounded up the Security Council to vote for stiffened sanctions against Iran. On this , they stiffed Barzil and Turkey on their negotiated settlement with Iran. I'm actually convinced by the Administration on the inadequacies of this deal. The Non-Proliferation Treaty group singles out both Iran and Israel. Israel claims that none of this pertains to them since they are not signatories. This was dutifully reported cheerfully by our neocons--who should have left the issue alone. At some point, more people are going to question the issue of Iran possessing enough enriched uranium for two bombs but Israel actually possessing over 250 real bombs. It didn't help that Israeli papers reported that there were three submarines with nuclear-tipped cruise missles off Iran today. Remember the Israeli nuclear arsenal is supposed to be secret.

Meanwhile the doctrine of Israeli exceptionalism seems to me to have a limited lifespan. American diplomats are quietly talking with Hamas. Hamas has said they would recognize Israel if it kept to its 1967 borders. This too one can take with a grain of salt. Yasir Arafat was offered 90% of all his demands at the Wye Plantation Conference under Clinton but simply could not seal the deal.

But the big change in all this is that Palestinians and Israeli peace activists are changing their tactics. By embracing ostensibly non-violent actions--despite their show of self-defense on the high seas--this increases the pressure on Israel. That's why the emergence of pro-Israeli groups like J Street will player a great role in shaping American public opinion. At some point, Israel will have to embrace more forward-thinking strategies to cope with their present problems. The old AIPAC fulminations have a limted shelf-life.