Gallup Congressional Poll

Since 1950, Gallup has polled congressional races. According to the company, Republican turnout in midterms usually means a 5% advantage over Democratic turnouts. Today's generic poll shows the preference 49% Democrats to 43% Republicans. Democrats have not scored this high for the last six months and only reached 49% twice since Obama's election. As Gallup moves towards the elections, there will be polling likely voters for a more precise reading. But what is interesting to me is this wide of margin at this date, when Democrats have previously only lead by 1-2 points in reputable polls. As Gallup concludes, the party results will be close with a slight advantage to the Democrats. Gallup claims that their polling historically has come close to predicting the ultimate outcome in Congress.

But what is also glaring is the wide enthusiasm gap of voters. 51% of Republicans are wildly enthused about voting. Only 28% of Democrats. I have no idea how you square the generic spread with the enthusiasm gap.

What is also interesting is the narrowing of support for the two parties by independents. Now the lead is Republicans 43 to 39% over Democrats. They may be that the independents are beginning to settle down to the natural split between the two parties. The difference is the in the past 18 months Republican identification has stabilized somewhat from the massive defection in 2008, therefore producing a sample of independents who really are unidentified with either party. But the media narrative that independents have totally jumped ship on Obama and the Democrats appears to be wrong.

Why the sudden bounce for Democrats? Gallup proposes that it was the passage of the Wall Street Reform Bill. 55% of Americans support the bill--72% of Democrats and 56% of Independents. It was clearly a more popular bill going in than the healthcare reform bill, which was subjected to a massive campaign of misinformation.

From my previous post about the Obama approval ratings in 50 states, it's very hard to take both polls and derive a winning formula from the GOP's strategy of wanting the mid-term election as a referendum on Obama. The host of polls I have posted in the last week simply don't reveal to me that great Tsunami election pundits are talking about. If anything, the electorate seems to be stablizing along normal lines.

Op-ed writers are now speculating on 2012 as if the Democrats already lost the House. I guess that's fun because remember the old poll that showed Dole beating Clinton by a wide margin. Mark Halperin wrote today that the Democrats are panicking over November. Some one should give Mark a new memo.