The Beginning of 2012

Penn and Schoen got back together to start polling on the 2012 election. The first Republican presidential debate is only months away. The GOP are heady with their one House trick--winning some 48 seats back where McCain won in 2008. So it's natural that they are feeling their oats. Karl Rove snorted that Obama lacks the political skills of Bill Clinton and can be beat. Of course, Karl will depend on his anonymous billionaire sources again.

So what do Penn and Schoen say at this early stage. Well, Barack Obama would lose to the generic Republican by 40 to 37%. This must of been the finding that sent Douglas Schoen off to write his op-ed about why President Obama must announce he's not running for re-election. I remember when some of the heaviest hitters in the Republican Party went to the White House in 1982 to persuade Ronald Reagan not to run for a second term.

The electorate this mid-term was overwhelmingly old and white and conservative. But conservatives have only gained 3% since 2006 and do not represent the next coming.

So, with the left mad at Obama and the Democrats licking their wounds, Penn and Schoen decided to poll the sadsack President against real living Republicans.

The results:
Obama over Palin 46%-33%
Obama over Romney 40%-32%
Obama over Pawlenty 39%-21%
Obama over Huckabee 40%-34%
Obama over Barbour 40%-20%

And, as Kurt Vonnegut said, and so it goes.