++Nate The Great Silver is feeling his oats. He's now betting Morning Joe on his picks. Today, Nate has Obama at 300.4 to Romney 237.6, a 79% probability of an Obama win and 50.5% popular vote.
++Sam Wang does him one better. Wang predicts Obama 312 to Romney 226. His meta-margin at noon was 2.64, His Drift was 96% and his probability at 99.1%. Remember he said that the two would converge at the end.
++Rand Tracking is at 50.5% versus 45.
++Rasmussen dutifully reported his finding that Romney leads by a point in Ohio and in Wisconsin. It is as if he needs to follow pro-Obama polls to affect the averages.
Showing posts with label 538 blog. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 538 blog. Show all posts
Thursday, November 1, 2012
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Polls As Shiny Objects
Charles Cook says that we should ignore all the tracking polls and just watch the President's approval rating, and the jobs reports to see whether President Obama will be re-elected. He says if this were a foreign policy election, President Obama would win hands down.
The CBS/New York Times poll has it Obama and Romney tied at 46.
The Democracy Corps poll has it 48-47 Obama. In December, the President had trailed by 7 points. The President's approval rate is 46 and Romney's is 32. This type of discrepancy shows up all the time and it makes you wonder whether Cook is right about it all being the economy.
Public Policy Polling for the Daily Kos and SEIU has introduced their weekly tracking poll. President Obama leads 50 to Romney's 44 with only 6 undecided.
The 538 blog posted the list of all the Obama offices that have opened up in the Swing States and the budgets allocated to each. A Fascinating look at the ground game offensive planned by the Obama campaign.
Democracy Corps poll also indicated a big 8 pt bump in Democrats for congress and a shift of key demographics in the congressional races--women, suburban voters, senior citizens and moderates are flocking to Democrats in key districts.
Maybe it is no accident that the DCC released their list of ad buys for 26 districts that they are targeting. Again these are in swing states and ad buys are done now not to interfere with the presidential race.
The actual quantifiable undecideds are in the presidential race are 7%. This means the couple of billion spent on the presidential races will be aimed at persuading this small number of people.
I happen to agree for once with Mark Halperin, who appeared on the Morning Joe show, and said that despite the evening in the polls the Romney campaign has still at a disadvantage in the electoral college. Halperin said that Romney had to put away Ohio and Florida in order to go on the offense against Obama. So far he is trailing beyond the margin of error in these states.
The CBS/New York Times poll has it Obama and Romney tied at 46.
The Democracy Corps poll has it 48-47 Obama. In December, the President had trailed by 7 points. The President's approval rate is 46 and Romney's is 32. This type of discrepancy shows up all the time and it makes you wonder whether Cook is right about it all being the economy.
Public Policy Polling for the Daily Kos and SEIU has introduced their weekly tracking poll. President Obama leads 50 to Romney's 44 with only 6 undecided.
The 538 blog posted the list of all the Obama offices that have opened up in the Swing States and the budgets allocated to each. A Fascinating look at the ground game offensive planned by the Obama campaign.
Democracy Corps poll also indicated a big 8 pt bump in Democrats for congress and a shift of key demographics in the congressional races--women, suburban voters, senior citizens and moderates are flocking to Democrats in key districts.
Maybe it is no accident that the DCC released their list of ad buys for 26 districts that they are targeting. Again these are in swing states and ad buys are done now not to interfere with the presidential race.
The actual quantifiable undecideds are in the presidential race are 7%. This means the couple of billion spent on the presidential races will be aimed at persuading this small number of people.
I happen to agree for once with Mark Halperin, who appeared on the Morning Joe show, and said that despite the evening in the polls the Romney campaign has still at a disadvantage in the electoral college. Halperin said that Romney had to put away Ohio and Florida in order to go on the offense against Obama. So far he is trailing beyond the margin of error in these states.
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