++Don't blame it on Nate Silver. Sam Wang at the Princeton Consortium has the race--Obama 319 EV and Romney 219. Obama's meta-margin is +2.90. The Random Drift is 97% and the Bayesian Prediction is 99.6%.
++Nate Silver is playing it safe. Obama at 303.7 to Romney 234.3 EVs. 81.4% probability of an Obama win. 50.5% popular vote.
++Last time I looked Obama was ahead in sixteen straight polls of swing states and Romney tied only one.
++I'll catch up tomorrow with the last polling. PPP ,We ask America and Reuters/Ipsos say they are wrapping up their state polls.
Showing posts with label Princeton Consortium. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Princeton Consortium. Show all posts
Friday, November 2, 2012
Friday, October 19, 2012
Sam Wang Puts Obama Up
++Princeton Consortium has Obama at 299 and Romney at 239. The one toss-up state they have on the map is New Hampshire. Obama has 243 safe EVs. and his meta-margin is up now to 1.96. PPP polled New Hampshire and found it Romney 49 to Obama 48.
++CNN has Florida Romney 49 to Obama 48. But look at registered voters--Obama 50 to Romney 43.
++The race looks like the civil war. The South are going heavily for Romney, while the North, Midwest and West are going for President Obama.
++CNN has Florida Romney 49 to Obama 48. But look at registered voters--Obama 50 to Romney 43.
++The race looks like the civil war. The South are going heavily for Romney, while the North, Midwest and West are going for President Obama.
Monday, October 15, 2012
Good Vibrations
++I'm hanging on to Allan Lichtman's prediction about President Obama's re-election. I haven't seen any more keys drop so we venture into the last days before the election waiting on another Jobs Report,some disaster abroad and the barrage of dog whistles on race and the avalanche of attack ads.
++But before tomorrow's debate and rumors of poor polling numbers for the President, let's take stock of where we are today.
**Princeton Consortium led by Sam Wang has a 84% probability President Obama will be re-elected. The meta-margin ticked up today. EV stands at 280 to 258. Romney's bounce was 5.5 its and Obama has made up 3 so far.
**Electoral Vote.com has President Obama at 290 and Romney at 239. Only Colorado is a Toss-up.
**Utah Valley U has Obama at 322 EV and winning with 53% of the popular vote.
**Nate the Great has Obama with 290 EV, 50% of the popular vote and 66% chance of re-election.
**Huffington Post printed a Swing State analysis today that showed President Obama with 290EV. Even subtracting Nevada and Colorado, he would be at 275. Curiously the next available swing state was Virginia, which they only gave Obama a 40.1% chance of winning. Seeing the Obama operation here, let's play pretend and give Virginia to Obama. That would be 303EV.
++ Warning: New York Magazine did a poll of an equal number Democrats and Republican insiders and they predict Obama wins 82% to 18%. These are the Beltway operatives and their judgment is almost always wrong on matters of policy. So I hope they have one good day.
++Intratrade has Obama at 61.6%.
++Most interesting poll of the day was Time Magazine of its readers. Does Mitt Romney lie? 71.83% say yes and 28.17 no.
++The Romney campaign said they found one weakness about Obama that they are going to exploit in this election--Latinos don't find him macho enough.
He's better work fast. Latino Decisions poll today showed Obama at 67 to Romney 23. Remember in 2004, George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote to win.
++Catholic for Choice commissioned a poll that showed Catholics supported Obama 46 to 41 and resented abortion emerging as a central campaign issue.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 47 to Romney 45 in likely voters.
++IBD/TIPP Obama 46.9 to Romney 46.6.
++UPI Romney 49 to Obama 46.
++Gallup Romney 49 to Obama 47 LV.
Obama 48 to Romney 46 RV.
++Rasmussen Romney 49 to Obama 48, 2 for other parties and 2 undecided.
++Remember what Nate Silver said about Romney is in trouble whenever his lead is 2 points or less.
++The Gallup poll of swing states that showed Romney with a five point lead is too murky to understand. The problem is that some of his leads are in states that Obama doesn't need and in those he does the lead doesn't materialize.
++The GOP is outspending Democrats 2 to 1 in Swing states but that is deceptive because reports are coming out that the GOP is spending three times the amount for the same spot because they have bought late. The other interesting news is that the Koch Brothers Pac is no longer in the presidential race but at the congressional level. I guess the Koch Brothers ordering 455,000 of their employees to vote for Romney was their last stab at the presidential side of things.
++But before tomorrow's debate and rumors of poor polling numbers for the President, let's take stock of where we are today.
**Princeton Consortium led by Sam Wang has a 84% probability President Obama will be re-elected. The meta-margin ticked up today. EV stands at 280 to 258. Romney's bounce was 5.5 its and Obama has made up 3 so far.
**Electoral Vote.com has President Obama at 290 and Romney at 239. Only Colorado is a Toss-up.
**Utah Valley U has Obama at 322 EV and winning with 53% of the popular vote.
**Nate the Great has Obama with 290 EV, 50% of the popular vote and 66% chance of re-election.
**Huffington Post printed a Swing State analysis today that showed President Obama with 290EV. Even subtracting Nevada and Colorado, he would be at 275. Curiously the next available swing state was Virginia, which they only gave Obama a 40.1% chance of winning. Seeing the Obama operation here, let's play pretend and give Virginia to Obama. That would be 303EV.
++ Warning: New York Magazine did a poll of an equal number Democrats and Republican insiders and they predict Obama wins 82% to 18%. These are the Beltway operatives and their judgment is almost always wrong on matters of policy. So I hope they have one good day.
++Intratrade has Obama at 61.6%.
++Most interesting poll of the day was Time Magazine of its readers. Does Mitt Romney lie? 71.83% say yes and 28.17 no.
++The Romney campaign said they found one weakness about Obama that they are going to exploit in this election--Latinos don't find him macho enough.
He's better work fast. Latino Decisions poll today showed Obama at 67 to Romney 23. Remember in 2004, George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote to win.
++Catholic for Choice commissioned a poll that showed Catholics supported Obama 46 to 41 and resented abortion emerging as a central campaign issue.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 47 to Romney 45 in likely voters.
++IBD/TIPP Obama 46.9 to Romney 46.6.
++UPI Romney 49 to Obama 46.
++Gallup Romney 49 to Obama 47 LV.
Obama 48 to Romney 46 RV.
++Rasmussen Romney 49 to Obama 48, 2 for other parties and 2 undecided.
++Remember what Nate Silver said about Romney is in trouble whenever his lead is 2 points or less.
++The Gallup poll of swing states that showed Romney with a five point lead is too murky to understand. The problem is that some of his leads are in states that Obama doesn't need and in those he does the lead doesn't materialize.
++The GOP is outspending Democrats 2 to 1 in Swing states but that is deceptive because reports are coming out that the GOP is spending three times the amount for the same spot because they have bought late. The other interesting news is that the Koch Brothers Pac is no longer in the presidential race but at the congressional level. I guess the Koch Brothers ordering 455,000 of their employees to vote for Romney was their last stab at the presidential side of things.
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
Does one Wish a Happy Yom Kippur?
++For those celebrating Yom Kippur have a blessed and meaningful one. Mitt Romney can't because he doesn't apologize, let alone atone.
++Nate Silver has put Obama at 81.9% and popular vote at 51.3% and Romney at 47.6%.
++Intratrade is at Obama 75 and Romney 25.
++Princeton Consortium claims their popular vote margin has hit a high of 5% and electoral vote is 343 to 195.
++TPM has Obama at 49.1%, which is their highest in three years. Obama has a 4.9% lead in the popular vote.
++Most important is the Presidential Halloween Mask Index. Obama has sold 69% to Romney's 31%. For the BUY COSTUMES Stories, they have been right for three consecutive elections and for Spirit Masks, the makers of the Halloween Masks, they have called it the last four elections.
++Nate Silver has put Obama at 81.9% and popular vote at 51.3% and Romney at 47.6%.
++Intratrade is at Obama 75 and Romney 25.
++Princeton Consortium claims their popular vote margin has hit a high of 5% and electoral vote is 343 to 195.
++TPM has Obama at 49.1%, which is their highest in three years. Obama has a 4.9% lead in the popular vote.
++Most important is the Presidential Halloween Mask Index. Obama has sold 69% to Romney's 31%. For the BUY COSTUMES Stories, they have been right for three consecutive elections and for Spirit Masks, the makers of the Halloween Masks, they have called it the last four elections.
Monday, September 24, 2012
Princeton Consortium
++Sam Wang leaves it at President Obama with 332 Electoral votes, Romney at 206. Obama's chances at re-election are at 90%.
++Read Nate Silver's 538 column today in the New York Times. Nate does a recap of the presidential races this century and the outcomes with the polling at this stage of the campaign. This does't bode well for Romney. Nate has Obama's re-election at 77.6%.
++We have two job reports left before the election,three debates between the presidential nominees, one with the vice presidential nominees and the mysterious overseas October Surprise.
++Read Nate Silver's 538 column today in the New York Times. Nate does a recap of the presidential races this century and the outcomes with the polling at this stage of the campaign. This does't bode well for Romney. Nate has Obama's re-election at 77.6%.
++We have two job reports left before the election,three debates between the presidential nominees, one with the vice presidential nominees and the mysterious overseas October Surprise.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Electoral Vote August 30
++Nate Silver dissed the two Michigan polls for methodological reasons. He still has Obama 299 and Romney 239.
++Electoral Vote has Obama at 326 and Romney 212. The GOP pick-ups are Indiana, Iowa and North Carolina. They have Obama winning Florida. Romney's people claimed this morning they could win the election without Florida. I don't see how. Romney needs both Florida and Ohio. Obama doesn't.
The concern with Electoral vote is that their Senate predictions are now 50 Republicans-47 Democrats and 3 tied. This is a change from a couple of weeks ago. Mitch McConnell claims the GOP can take the Senate without winning Missouri.
++Sam Wang at Princeton Consortium has the race 303 Obama and Romney 235.
++Electoral Vote has Obama at 326 and Romney 212. The GOP pick-ups are Indiana, Iowa and North Carolina. They have Obama winning Florida. Romney's people claimed this morning they could win the election without Florida. I don't see how. Romney needs both Florida and Ohio. Obama doesn't.
The concern with Electoral vote is that their Senate predictions are now 50 Republicans-47 Democrats and 3 tied. This is a change from a couple of weeks ago. Mitch McConnell claims the GOP can take the Senate without winning Missouri.
++Sam Wang at Princeton Consortium has the race 303 Obama and Romney 235.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Sunday Coffee at the Last Manatee
++So checking in with the Princeton Elections Consortium it is Obama 308 and Romney 230. Nate Silver has it 299.7 to 238.3. Princeton's Sam Wang wrote last week that historically it is very, very difficult for a challenger to come from so far behind at this date in the campaign. Sam Wang has the Senate Democrats 50-52.
++The Washington Post blasted Willard's tax plan as garbage saying "It's reasonable to assure that his cuts would, as President's Bush's, worsen the nation's debt."
++The New York Times has become exasperated with the Romney-Ryan Medicare pretzel twist and declares "No voter can believe anything they say." Which is the accurate assessment of their whole campaign.
++Joe Fehrnstrom told CNN this morning that the Romney-Ryan campaign for the "first time, we've got Democrats on the Defense on Medicare" and he repeated the lie that Obama "stole" money from Medicare to fund Obamacare.
++Joe Gibbs said that Paul Ryan should thank President Obama because the President extended the life of Medicare and expanded coverage and closed the donut whole to save seniors money on prescriptions.
++Paul Ryan showed up in Florida to the largest community of senior citizens with his mother who is on Medicare. In now the new strategy of embracing President Clinton by Republicans, Ryan claimed that his ideas were taken from the Clinton Commission. But again that's not true because President Clinton could only appoint a couple of members to this Commission, which was not named after him, and he railed against this particular recommendation, which was defeated.
++Chris Wallace after saying Romney's tax issue is toxic interviewed Ed Gillespie who claimed that Romney paid 13% of his adjusted gross income. Yesterday a Colorado economic Professor lambasted Romney's statements about his taxes and showed why they were false.
++The Romney campaign again released the Welfare ad playing the race card as if white don't receive welfare.
++Pennsylvania decided they would play their own race card by postponing their on-line voter registration plan until after the election. The whole process would be cheaper for the states and make it easier to register to vote.
++Tampa is arresting prostitutes with sting operations to clean up before the GOP convention.
++John Kerry sent out a note saying President Obama was being swift boated and blasted Romney and Ryan for totally lacking any foreign policy experience. Paul Ryan counted that his experience was voting for war.
++The DVD I mentioned yesterday about Dreams of my real Father, which claims Ann Dunham posed for S&M photos for fetish magazines will be sent by the thousands to swing states--Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. YouTube commentators noticed that one of the photo spreads was Australian and that the photo marked the initials of the model on it--not Ann Dunham who would have been about 10 to do this. But last election we got the anti-islam DVD sent en masse in Virginia. Of course, I would send out photos of Karl Rove's father posing for fetish magazines with penis piercings.
++Romney has been off the campaign trail to attend fund-raiser saying he had to do this because the President broke all fund-raising efforts last time.
++If Romney is still stuck on taxes and Medicare, he has basically lost another week in the campaign.
++The new GOP gotcha is Joe Biden saying to a mixed race audience that Romney by repealing Dodd-Frank would be putting everyone in "chains". Absolutely true but the GOP spent their time trying to say Joe Biden was insulting blacks--sort of like, I guess, his speech to the NAACP, when he greeted the audience by first names. Now ole' frothy mix Rick Santorum said Joe Biden yesterday "played the race card" by saying Y'All.
++If you think this campaign has gone into the gutter, you have not seen anything yet.
++The Washington Post blasted Willard's tax plan as garbage saying "It's reasonable to assure that his cuts would, as President's Bush's, worsen the nation's debt."
++The New York Times has become exasperated with the Romney-Ryan Medicare pretzel twist and declares "No voter can believe anything they say." Which is the accurate assessment of their whole campaign.
++Joe Fehrnstrom told CNN this morning that the Romney-Ryan campaign for the "first time, we've got Democrats on the Defense on Medicare" and he repeated the lie that Obama "stole" money from Medicare to fund Obamacare.
++Joe Gibbs said that Paul Ryan should thank President Obama because the President extended the life of Medicare and expanded coverage and closed the donut whole to save seniors money on prescriptions.
++Paul Ryan showed up in Florida to the largest community of senior citizens with his mother who is on Medicare. In now the new strategy of embracing President Clinton by Republicans, Ryan claimed that his ideas were taken from the Clinton Commission. But again that's not true because President Clinton could only appoint a couple of members to this Commission, which was not named after him, and he railed against this particular recommendation, which was defeated.
++Chris Wallace after saying Romney's tax issue is toxic interviewed Ed Gillespie who claimed that Romney paid 13% of his adjusted gross income. Yesterday a Colorado economic Professor lambasted Romney's statements about his taxes and showed why they were false.
++The Romney campaign again released the Welfare ad playing the race card as if white don't receive welfare.
++Pennsylvania decided they would play their own race card by postponing their on-line voter registration plan until after the election. The whole process would be cheaper for the states and make it easier to register to vote.
++Tampa is arresting prostitutes with sting operations to clean up before the GOP convention.
++John Kerry sent out a note saying President Obama was being swift boated and blasted Romney and Ryan for totally lacking any foreign policy experience. Paul Ryan counted that his experience was voting for war.
++The DVD I mentioned yesterday about Dreams of my real Father, which claims Ann Dunham posed for S&M photos for fetish magazines will be sent by the thousands to swing states--Virginia, Florida, and Ohio. YouTube commentators noticed that one of the photo spreads was Australian and that the photo marked the initials of the model on it--not Ann Dunham who would have been about 10 to do this. But last election we got the anti-islam DVD sent en masse in Virginia. Of course, I would send out photos of Karl Rove's father posing for fetish magazines with penis piercings.
++Romney has been off the campaign trail to attend fund-raiser saying he had to do this because the President broke all fund-raising efforts last time.
++If Romney is still stuck on taxes and Medicare, he has basically lost another week in the campaign.
++The new GOP gotcha is Joe Biden saying to a mixed race audience that Romney by repealing Dodd-Frank would be putting everyone in "chains". Absolutely true but the GOP spent their time trying to say Joe Biden was insulting blacks--sort of like, I guess, his speech to the NAACP, when he greeted the audience by first names. Now ole' frothy mix Rick Santorum said Joe Biden yesterday "played the race card" by saying Y'All.
++If you think this campaign has gone into the gutter, you have not seen anything yet.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Pollpalooza
++Feel free to observe the drip, drip of the Romney tax story on the various internet sites. This story is not going to go away soon and will not have a happy ending. Donald Trump and Steve Forbes in their own ways have proposed that Romney release his tax returns in return from documents of Obama's on his college career and other items. Steve Forbes was candid in saying that he didn't understand how someone who has been running for President so long could be caught so flat-footed. The problem with their proposal is that it will make Romney look like a birthed and chase away the independent voter who could care less what name Barack Obama went to school under. This theme has gotten new juice for the GOP because libertarian Wayne Allard Root, who claims to have gone to Colombia in the same class as President Obama says no one remembers him there. Root pulled this last election and got nowhere but seems willing to try it again.
++The Romney campaign wants to turn the conversation to their Veep pick. Yesterday Drudge had everyone hopping with the prospect of General Petraeus being tapped by Mitt Romney. In my opinion, that actually would be a game-changer. Petraeus, a former Rhodes Scholar and named one of Time magazine's 100 most important personalities, would force the Obama campaign to rethink its strategy. The choice would actually signal that Romney isn't afraid of having an equal nearby. Almost everyone, including his partners at Bain, say that Romney basically has been surrounded by yes-men his whole career and that many of his mistakes can be contributed to a very rigid CEO model of operation. Petraeus would also have erased the double digit lead by Obama in the field of foreign affairs and national security. The choice also would have given comfort level to the Republican establishment, which quietly is critical of the Romney campaign so far. The problem is that Petraeus has an excellent relationship with President Obama and is a self-proclaimed Rockefeller Republican. But alas, the buzz was killed when General Petraeus issued a statement late in the afternoon he did not want to run for any office in the near future.
++Which boils the field down to safer picks. Conservatives are pleading with Romney to solidify his base by picking Paul Ryan. But the Wisconsin congressman is simply too toxic with his proposals to turn Medicare into a voucher system and cut entitlement programs while increasing defense. Romney has danced close to the Ryan Plan but recently has sought to distance himself from its more outrageous proposals.
++So Nate the Great appeared on the Last Word and pointed out that Rob Portman's Wikipedia entry has been changed over 100 times in the last few days and is now locked, suggesting that Portman is the overwhelming choice. Today conservatives wrote op-ed pieces pleading with the Romney campaign not to pick Portman, who is a Washington insider with very close ties to both Bushes.
++Tim Pawlenty is mired in tax problems of his own,which would only magnify the Romney tax issue.
++Obviously, the Romney campaign desperately needs Ohio so Portman is very high, if not essential to his possible election. At 57, he looks and sounds like a reasonable technocrat but would not add any excitement to the campaign. The negative is that he is associated with both Bush Administrations and is almost totally an economics man.
++So let's get to the polls:
Electoral College. Princeton Consortium, which matched Nate Silver in 2008 for accuracy, has 300 safe EVs for Obama, 191 safe for Romney with 47 toss-ups. Without toss-ups, the EC vote is 332 to 206 for President Obama.
TPM today has 323 EC for Obama and 191 for Romney. Virginia is now considered "lean Obama", while Colorado is a "toss-up".
++National polls: Reuters/Ipsos Obama 49 and Romney 42 with Obama being better on both the economy and taxes.
PPP is Obama 48 to Romney 46.
ARP on voters over 50: Obama 47, Romney 47. Baby-boomers favored Romney by 7, retirees Obama by 4. Males Romney, women Obama.
State polling:
Cap/Corr/Granis on Virginia Obama 44 Romney 40. But over 50% want Romney to release his taxes.
Qunnipiac Virginia Obama 49 to Romney 45.
Quinnipiac Colorado : Romney 50 and Obama 45
PPP Colorado: Obama 49, Romney 43
Rasmussen Colorado: Obama 47, Romney 47
PPP North Carolina: Obama 49, Romney 46
Quinnipiac Wisconsin: Obama 51, Romney 45
Marquette Wisconsin: Obama 50, Romney 45
++So little has changed but the campaigns are heating up and Republicans are fighting over who will be allowed to speak at the Convention.
++The Romney campaign wants to turn the conversation to their Veep pick. Yesterday Drudge had everyone hopping with the prospect of General Petraeus being tapped by Mitt Romney. In my opinion, that actually would be a game-changer. Petraeus, a former Rhodes Scholar and named one of Time magazine's 100 most important personalities, would force the Obama campaign to rethink its strategy. The choice would actually signal that Romney isn't afraid of having an equal nearby. Almost everyone, including his partners at Bain, say that Romney basically has been surrounded by yes-men his whole career and that many of his mistakes can be contributed to a very rigid CEO model of operation. Petraeus would also have erased the double digit lead by Obama in the field of foreign affairs and national security. The choice also would have given comfort level to the Republican establishment, which quietly is critical of the Romney campaign so far. The problem is that Petraeus has an excellent relationship with President Obama and is a self-proclaimed Rockefeller Republican. But alas, the buzz was killed when General Petraeus issued a statement late in the afternoon he did not want to run for any office in the near future.
++Which boils the field down to safer picks. Conservatives are pleading with Romney to solidify his base by picking Paul Ryan. But the Wisconsin congressman is simply too toxic with his proposals to turn Medicare into a voucher system and cut entitlement programs while increasing defense. Romney has danced close to the Ryan Plan but recently has sought to distance himself from its more outrageous proposals.
++So Nate the Great appeared on the Last Word and pointed out that Rob Portman's Wikipedia entry has been changed over 100 times in the last few days and is now locked, suggesting that Portman is the overwhelming choice. Today conservatives wrote op-ed pieces pleading with the Romney campaign not to pick Portman, who is a Washington insider with very close ties to both Bushes.
++Tim Pawlenty is mired in tax problems of his own,which would only magnify the Romney tax issue.
++Obviously, the Romney campaign desperately needs Ohio so Portman is very high, if not essential to his possible election. At 57, he looks and sounds like a reasonable technocrat but would not add any excitement to the campaign. The negative is that he is associated with both Bush Administrations and is almost totally an economics man.
++So let's get to the polls:
Electoral College. Princeton Consortium, which matched Nate Silver in 2008 for accuracy, has 300 safe EVs for Obama, 191 safe for Romney with 47 toss-ups. Without toss-ups, the EC vote is 332 to 206 for President Obama.
TPM today has 323 EC for Obama and 191 for Romney. Virginia is now considered "lean Obama", while Colorado is a "toss-up".
++National polls: Reuters/Ipsos Obama 49 and Romney 42 with Obama being better on both the economy and taxes.
PPP is Obama 48 to Romney 46.
ARP on voters over 50: Obama 47, Romney 47. Baby-boomers favored Romney by 7, retirees Obama by 4. Males Romney, women Obama.
State polling:
Cap/Corr/Granis on Virginia Obama 44 Romney 40. But over 50% want Romney to release his taxes.
Qunnipiac Virginia Obama 49 to Romney 45.
Quinnipiac Colorado : Romney 50 and Obama 45
PPP Colorado: Obama 49, Romney 43
Rasmussen Colorado: Obama 47, Romney 47
PPP North Carolina: Obama 49, Romney 46
Quinnipiac Wisconsin: Obama 51, Romney 45
Marquette Wisconsin: Obama 50, Romney 45
++So little has changed but the campaigns are heating up and Republicans are fighting over who will be allowed to speak at the Convention.
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