So Barack Obama caved to the Republicans on the budget deal. Or did he? Now AP reports that Obama protected all his priorities in the deal and gave in on things that either could not be spent anyway or weren't important to him. Boehner, they said, came away with more budget cuts than he wanted. But then again he didn't defund Planned Parenthood and Obamacare.
Progressives are hopping mad because Obama has bought into the whole cut,cut frame of the debate when we still have to secure a strong economic recovery. The right's criticism of the budget deal is so batshit crazy no one can figure it out.
Paul Krugman is still punching away on the Ryan Plan. It's not that it is too radical, it's just that it is fraudulent, says Krugman. It basically doesn't deal with anything in the real universe in any timely matter. And the numbers do not add up.
From a different point of David Stockman blasted Ryan's plan for not addressing the deficit and debt problem. Stockman claimed that any serious plan would have to deal with revenues (Ryan's doesn't), defense cuts (Ryan's doesn't) and entitlements (which, according to Stockman, doesn't except to hide the issue by privatizing Medicare.)
The next real big battle--incredibly so--is raising the debt ceiling. Nate Silver did an excellent piece on his website 538 where he shows that the Republicans in poker language have shown the "tells", the signs they have no leverage despite the bluff.
Silver actually summarizes what a cataclysm would actually happen if the US did not raise the debt ceiling. Even the White House spokesman is using terms like cataclysm and armaggeddon about it. Silver points out that the dire consequences of failing to raise the debt ceiling would mean that every incumbent, including President Obama would be voted out of office. The results, which would last years, would be unbearable for Americans, even the wealthy.
Barack Obama is again caving say the progressives when he will address the nation on his plans to cut the deficit and the national debt. It is rumored that he will embrace the Bowles-Simpson--The Catfood Commission's-- recommendations. Not all that is bad.
He would ask the wealthier to contribute more to Social Security, which would put it on secure grounds, and he would ask for increased taxes on the wealthier Americans and propose cuts in defense spending. Over 81% of Americans favor a surtax on those people earning over $1 million a year and on billionaires. Interestingly, Dave Stockman said that these taxes would not be enough and that the middle class would have to pay more.
So will Obama cave? And what does that mean? Richard Wolfe says that the Obama White House has been planning for this moment since the December deal. He claims that President Obama was waiting for the unveiling of the Ryan Plan and the torrent of criticism of it. Then President Obama will emerged as the only sane person in the room and set the language of the debate. Wonderful if true but alot of people are concerned that the insane is dictating the terms and rhythmn of the debate. This means Obama always ends up negitiating with himself before he even meets Republican obstructionism. There is real concern among progressives about Obama's true identity. Is he really a Democrat?
Meanwhile PPP has a devastating poll out on attitudes toward the Republican House. Americans were happier with Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats by wide margins. Democrats has over a 5 point generic lead right now. John Boehner is finally beginning to be known by the public and he isn't liked. Some of the state polling is fascinating. For instance, in New Hampshire the approval ratings for the new Republicans have gone through the floor--making Scott Walker look popular. Charlie Cook still holds to the view that the Republicans will lose the House in 2012 if they allow the vote to privatize Medicare. As of today, they really are going ahead with it. Make our Day!
Oh by the way, Mitt Romney announced for President on the fifth anniversary of Romneycare. He adopted the same campaign slogan as John Kerry. And he's running as a CEO who knows how to create jobs--even though he never has. It all came off clumsy and he comes off as an empty suit. But who knows--Mormons are in this year.
Showing posts with label Catfood Commission. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Catfood Commission. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Friday, December 3, 2010
Lesbians Die For My Freedom*
*cool, huh.
The DADT circus continues today. Yesterday provided some strange doings. We've come to expect Republicans treating President Obama like a bus boy, but this nasty,thuggish tone now extends to anyone associated with the executive branch. Senator McCain, who clearly seems to have had a bad gay experience in his past,criticized Admiral Mullen for not being in charge of ground troops and therefore how would he know what the fighting men and women really believe? Admiral Mullen patiently explained how many ships he had captained, fleets and service he had commanded. Mullen missed his chance. He should have answered McCain by saying,"He rented his Admiral uniform from the Village People." Today's hearing had all the service heads report on whether they favor repeal and were they confident that procedures were in place to make a smooth transition to its repeal. Naturally, the head of the Marines expressed his personal opinion that it shouldn't be repealed but did allow how he was confident in Gates and others that the process can be managed along a timeline that had been discussed. Basically,Republican Senators Collins and Brown have jumped ship on McCain, making it certain that the votes exist for his repeal.
But the Washington Post ran an article heavy with anonymous sources suggesting that the Pentagon is afraid of the Republicans and believe they'll screw it up and that the issues will bounce back and forth in court cases which create havoc with bureaucratic procedures. The anti-repeal crowd is now saying that the debate on the overall defense appropriations bill would take too long to accomodate the repeal of DADT. The Defense Appropriations bill was already extensively debated before the fall election and has been filibustered twice already by the anti-repeal crowd. The other argument that it shouldn't be repealed now because we are at war got shot down by Susan Collins, who picked up on something Gates said in his testimony, and suggested it was easier to repeal now that we are in conflict. Of course, a cynic might suggest that we haven't been out of conflict for twenty years.
I would not be surprised to see Gates request President Obama repeal it by executive order because it could not happen next Congress with the teabaggers coming in.
I guess it has come to this. An emaciated Larry Eagleburger appeared on Keith Olbermann to plead for the ratification of the New Start Treaty. Unfortunately, Larry, like all five of the Republican Secretaries of State who wrote the op-ed in the Washington Post,didn't press a timeframe because they didn't want to get into politics. Howard Baker, former Chief of Staff for Ronald Reagan, penned an op-ed in favor of the New Start Treaty. My problem with all these guys is that they really have no ideas how far off the beaten path the Republican Party has gone. They do not understand that the GOP base has nothing but contempt for their level of expertise. Possessing expertise and knowledge of foreign affairs is elitist. In the immortal words of incoming teabagger Rand Paul, "I don't do Afghanistan."
(Historical note--Washington is filled with former diplomats who insist on being called ambassador. Once they leave their post, they are not entitled to this. There are four lifetime ambassadors, whose ranks get filled upon death. Larry Eagleburger is one of them. The late Jeane Kirkpatrick was another. Max Kampelman is another.)
The American people are not as crazy as they vote. 82% favor the ratification of the Start Treaty. Also, about 70%--like the military itself--favor gays openly serving in the military.
The Democrats in the House yesterday voted to make all middle class tax cuts permanent. All Repubicans voted against and 20 of the Blue Dog Democrats. John Boehner referred to the vote as "chickenshit". Boehner has invoked the will of the people to be against all tax hikes. Well, not so fast. 53% of Americans agree with the Democrats in preserving the tax cuts for those earning less than $250,000 and not extending tax cuts for the wealthier Americans. Only 26% of Americans believe Boehner we should extend the tax cuts for everyone.
And if we extended none, we would be near a balanced budget in four years.
The Catfood Commission won't be submitting their recommendations to Congress because they failed to get the 14 votes necessary to approve their recommendations. In some ways, this is too bad because the Catfood Commission actually increased the national debt for the next ten years and then eased into the debt savings of their proposals.
Meanwhile, the White House and the GOP are behnd closed doors hammering out a tax package, which will probably extend all tax cuts for 2-3 years,extend unemployment insurance,and avoid the debt ceiling vote until the fall of 2011. As an add-on some say the New Start Treaty will be ratified. The whole process is infuriating Democrats who claim Obama is selling out to the GOP. I think there is a little quid pro quo here in that the Republican leadership wants to avoid the most extreme actions of their teabaggers in the next Congress. The debt ceiling vote is really to protect the Republicans from looking like total clowns. Also,part of the negotiation is the ways to fund the government so as to avoid the 1994 government shutdown that blew up on the GOP.
Things are getting so bizarre it took Pravda to attack Sarah Palin as a traitor to the United States. For some reason, Pravda, which sees the Palin home from its porch, felt her attack on Obama for not preventing Wikileaks went too far. Pravda defended President Obama as a democratically elected President who does not have dictatorial powers to suppress these leaks. I guess this was really an indirect shot at the other born-again Christian Putin,who hunts wolves from helicopters. But the tone of the attack was unusually brutal against a critic of an American President.
Maybe they read Fidel Castro's book on Obama and liked what they read.
Fleeing town, the President snuck into Afghanistan for a surprise visit and was met by joyous troops. He should have worn the flightsuit with the codpiece.His approval rating in the CBS poll is a measly 48%, the highest since April. I guess he needed downtime.
Doug Brooks showed up at AEI the other day to argue that Republicans really could deal with President Obama. Brooks looked frightened of his AEI audience when he explained that Obama really isn't a socialist and that his staff may well be American liberals but they don't want to create a European style social democracy. I found it a llittle disconcerting that Brooks felt compelled to keep talking about the White House as Americans.
The UK papers think Americans are barbaric for cutting off unemployment benefits to 2 million American before Christmas or at any time. This would not happen even in Conservative-run England.
Are white males going to voice solidarity with Julian Assange. The Swedish rape charges look fishier by the minute. I know we've been sensitized to the lurking misogyny in Sweden by "the Girl with the Dragoon Tatoo" but the law Assange is being arrested on is beyond the pale. Assange, who has been linked to two Swedish women, who have written about having sex with him, is being accused of rape because in Sweden having consensual sex without a condom is grounds for a rape charge. Assange has claimed his condom broke midway. I'm glad he shared this with us all.
Joining Assange on the Interpol most wanted list is Richard Bruce Cheney, formerly known as the Vice President. The paragon of transparent government, Nigeria has charged Cheney with corruption for the days he was CEO of Halliburton. The problem for the current administration is that the charge is real and being transmitted by Interpol, whom we are asking to arrest Assange, and the United States has had an extradition treaty with Nigeria for decades. As Lenin asked, "hat is to be done?"
Yesterday's news that the Obama Administration with Republicans bigwigs pressured Spain to drop its investigation on the torture allegations against leading Bush officials is even more troubling for civil libertarians. It seems the Obama Administration forgot that the Spanish judiciary really is independent and that the U.S. Government was threatening the national government with severe consequences if an independent court did its work. While the United States will not keep its commitment to enforce the International Covention against Torture, now it's interferring with another country who is trying to fulfil their obligations. This matter only gets worse and worse.
But I guess that's American Exceptionalism!
The DADT circus continues today. Yesterday provided some strange doings. We've come to expect Republicans treating President Obama like a bus boy, but this nasty,thuggish tone now extends to anyone associated with the executive branch. Senator McCain, who clearly seems to have had a bad gay experience in his past,criticized Admiral Mullen for not being in charge of ground troops and therefore how would he know what the fighting men and women really believe? Admiral Mullen patiently explained how many ships he had captained, fleets and service he had commanded. Mullen missed his chance. He should have answered McCain by saying,"He rented his Admiral uniform from the Village People." Today's hearing had all the service heads report on whether they favor repeal and were they confident that procedures were in place to make a smooth transition to its repeal. Naturally, the head of the Marines expressed his personal opinion that it shouldn't be repealed but did allow how he was confident in Gates and others that the process can be managed along a timeline that had been discussed. Basically,Republican Senators Collins and Brown have jumped ship on McCain, making it certain that the votes exist for his repeal.
But the Washington Post ran an article heavy with anonymous sources suggesting that the Pentagon is afraid of the Republicans and believe they'll screw it up and that the issues will bounce back and forth in court cases which create havoc with bureaucratic procedures. The anti-repeal crowd is now saying that the debate on the overall defense appropriations bill would take too long to accomodate the repeal of DADT. The Defense Appropriations bill was already extensively debated before the fall election and has been filibustered twice already by the anti-repeal crowd. The other argument that it shouldn't be repealed now because we are at war got shot down by Susan Collins, who picked up on something Gates said in his testimony, and suggested it was easier to repeal now that we are in conflict. Of course, a cynic might suggest that we haven't been out of conflict for twenty years.
I would not be surprised to see Gates request President Obama repeal it by executive order because it could not happen next Congress with the teabaggers coming in.
I guess it has come to this. An emaciated Larry Eagleburger appeared on Keith Olbermann to plead for the ratification of the New Start Treaty. Unfortunately, Larry, like all five of the Republican Secretaries of State who wrote the op-ed in the Washington Post,didn't press a timeframe because they didn't want to get into politics. Howard Baker, former Chief of Staff for Ronald Reagan, penned an op-ed in favor of the New Start Treaty. My problem with all these guys is that they really have no ideas how far off the beaten path the Republican Party has gone. They do not understand that the GOP base has nothing but contempt for their level of expertise. Possessing expertise and knowledge of foreign affairs is elitist. In the immortal words of incoming teabagger Rand Paul, "I don't do Afghanistan."
(Historical note--Washington is filled with former diplomats who insist on being called ambassador. Once they leave their post, they are not entitled to this. There are four lifetime ambassadors, whose ranks get filled upon death. Larry Eagleburger is one of them. The late Jeane Kirkpatrick was another. Max Kampelman is another.)
The American people are not as crazy as they vote. 82% favor the ratification of the Start Treaty. Also, about 70%--like the military itself--favor gays openly serving in the military.
The Democrats in the House yesterday voted to make all middle class tax cuts permanent. All Repubicans voted against and 20 of the Blue Dog Democrats. John Boehner referred to the vote as "chickenshit". Boehner has invoked the will of the people to be against all tax hikes. Well, not so fast. 53% of Americans agree with the Democrats in preserving the tax cuts for those earning less than $250,000 and not extending tax cuts for the wealthier Americans. Only 26% of Americans believe Boehner we should extend the tax cuts for everyone.
And if we extended none, we would be near a balanced budget in four years.
The Catfood Commission won't be submitting their recommendations to Congress because they failed to get the 14 votes necessary to approve their recommendations. In some ways, this is too bad because the Catfood Commission actually increased the national debt for the next ten years and then eased into the debt savings of their proposals.
Meanwhile, the White House and the GOP are behnd closed doors hammering out a tax package, which will probably extend all tax cuts for 2-3 years,extend unemployment insurance,and avoid the debt ceiling vote until the fall of 2011. As an add-on some say the New Start Treaty will be ratified. The whole process is infuriating Democrats who claim Obama is selling out to the GOP. I think there is a little quid pro quo here in that the Republican leadership wants to avoid the most extreme actions of their teabaggers in the next Congress. The debt ceiling vote is really to protect the Republicans from looking like total clowns. Also,part of the negotiation is the ways to fund the government so as to avoid the 1994 government shutdown that blew up on the GOP.
Things are getting so bizarre it took Pravda to attack Sarah Palin as a traitor to the United States. For some reason, Pravda, which sees the Palin home from its porch, felt her attack on Obama for not preventing Wikileaks went too far. Pravda defended President Obama as a democratically elected President who does not have dictatorial powers to suppress these leaks. I guess this was really an indirect shot at the other born-again Christian Putin,who hunts wolves from helicopters. But the tone of the attack was unusually brutal against a critic of an American President.
Maybe they read Fidel Castro's book on Obama and liked what they read.
Fleeing town, the President snuck into Afghanistan for a surprise visit and was met by joyous troops. He should have worn the flightsuit with the codpiece.His approval rating in the CBS poll is a measly 48%, the highest since April. I guess he needed downtime.
Doug Brooks showed up at AEI the other day to argue that Republicans really could deal with President Obama. Brooks looked frightened of his AEI audience when he explained that Obama really isn't a socialist and that his staff may well be American liberals but they don't want to create a European style social democracy. I found it a llittle disconcerting that Brooks felt compelled to keep talking about the White House as Americans.
The UK papers think Americans are barbaric for cutting off unemployment benefits to 2 million American before Christmas or at any time. This would not happen even in Conservative-run England.
Are white males going to voice solidarity with Julian Assange. The Swedish rape charges look fishier by the minute. I know we've been sensitized to the lurking misogyny in Sweden by "the Girl with the Dragoon Tatoo" but the law Assange is being arrested on is beyond the pale. Assange, who has been linked to two Swedish women, who have written about having sex with him, is being accused of rape because in Sweden having consensual sex without a condom is grounds for a rape charge. Assange has claimed his condom broke midway. I'm glad he shared this with us all.
Joining Assange on the Interpol most wanted list is Richard Bruce Cheney, formerly known as the Vice President. The paragon of transparent government, Nigeria has charged Cheney with corruption for the days he was CEO of Halliburton. The problem for the current administration is that the charge is real and being transmitted by Interpol, whom we are asking to arrest Assange, and the United States has had an extradition treaty with Nigeria for decades. As Lenin asked, "hat is to be done?"
Yesterday's news that the Obama Administration with Republicans bigwigs pressured Spain to drop its investigation on the torture allegations against leading Bush officials is even more troubling for civil libertarians. It seems the Obama Administration forgot that the Spanish judiciary really is independent and that the U.S. Government was threatening the national government with severe consequences if an independent court did its work. While the United States will not keep its commitment to enforce the International Covention against Torture, now it's interferring with another country who is trying to fulfil their obligations. This matter only gets worse and worse.
But I guess that's American Exceptionalism!
Thursday, September 2, 2010
Cleaning Up The Mess and Other Items
After listening to President Obama's speech on Iraq and having heard him in New Orleans a few days before, it is staggering the amount of destruction he has to clean up and ,at the same time, how he has to rhetorically thread the needle. I am still haunted by Gore Vidal's comment that "Barack Obama's problem is that he is too intelligent to lead people like Americans." He is going up against the perpetual myth of American indispensability and God-given destiny as the number 1 country on the planet. There simply is no room for reflecting on how we are now lagging behind almost every developed country in the world in every category that measures the quality of life. While every speech of the Administration incorporates some aspect of how we are developing the tools to continue to lead the world, our own parochialism blinds us to the reality that the world really is moving on without us and that today's America, while still the wealthiest country on the planet, is in tatters.
The two new "memes" of the Republicans are that the President is incompetent (unlike ,say, George W. Bush) and he is not gracious because he did not thank Bush enough for W's role in the surge. If you ever have had any contact with Barack Obama, he is the epitome of gracious and unfailingly polite, and a warm human being. As for competence, he could quit the Presidency right now and be considered one of the formidable President in history. Given the vitriol and hate aimed at him and his family, who could blame him from just saddling up and leaving after one term. There is precedent for this. James K. Polk listed everything he wanted to accomplish in office and when he completed the list he refused to run again ,even though he would have won.
The best news in the last few days is the lack of news coverage or punditry on the Middle East peace talks. What coverage exists is cynical, skeptical and claims the Administration just needs the photo opportunity to prove their commitment to a Middle East peace process. The remnants of the neo-conservatives simply don't believe in diplomacy of any kind on anything. So they are ignoring this right now. They figure their ally Bibi Netanyahu will scuttle the talks and further damage Obama. I think they are in for a surprise. Israel came to Washington with a full complement of able negotiators on every subject that needs to be completed.
While Israeli public opinion has been polarized for the past two years, there are wiser heads suggesting something must be done in the way of transitioning to a Palestinian state. The rest of the world still has an historical memory. For 20 years, both United States and Israel's public stance has been to endorse the creation of a Palestinian state. The current administration of Mahmoud Abbas has created security and administrative structures paid for and often manned by Americans and Europeans. There have been quiet moves since the Gaza Flotilla disaster on both sides to move to some new arrangement between Israelis and Palestinians.
Yesterday, President Obama gave a one-year timetable for this to be done. Serious talks begin today and will be mediated by Secretary of State Clinton. I expect we will see some basic agreements and then the parties will leave Washington and we will see a brief flurry of pontificating. And, since all Presidents since Jimmy Carter have failed, I'm betting on Obama to succeed. Call me crazy. I just like how there are no expectations this time and no one believes it can be done. There is that time when the warring parties blink and realize no one in the outside world cares anymore. And I also believe that Hamas will recognize Israel within one or two years.
And then to the Catfood Commission and the outrage over Alan Simpson's attacks on Social Security and Veterans' Benefits. If President Obama says he's going to strengthen social security and just tinker with it to lengthen its viability, I believe him. I checked out our national budget--we now spend 58% of the annual budget on defense, and only about 4-5% in debt servicing. The bulk of the rest goes to Medicare, leaving only about 20% to pay for everything else. If Alan Simpson is beginning to grumble over veterans benefits, no matter how curlish, I think we might see the Commission actually recommend further cuts in defense spending. Everyone has started gaming the politics of the Commission, producing like Ezra Klein conclusions that it predominantly shifts right. This may be true but by December I believe the Administration will produce a very viable strategy to reduce the national debt without the catastrophic human costs the Republicans advocate.
I still don't understand the news reports that "Democrats can't repeal Bush's tax-cuts". These tax cuts naturally expire so you must affirmatively pass them again. So let's say Evan Bayh, Nelson, Lincoln and a few Democrats are in favor of tax-cuts for the rich, they must get the Senate to pass them. Their may be a compromise to extend for two years. But all these must be paid for, according to the Pay-Go rules.
Elizabeth Warren has notified Harvard she is not returning to teach contract law this year. Hmmm. Katherine Van der Heuvel of the Nation tweeted again that her nomination will be made soon. It would spark some enthusiasm among progressive Democrats and normal human beings. The New York Post printed a piece that Wall Street is bracing itself for a Warren nomination.
Maybe President Obama could make the announcement at his Labor Day speech in front of the AFL-CIO familes in Milwaukee. It's interesting to actually see a President join the AFL-CIO to celebrate Labor Day. It's been quite a while.
In mid-term elections, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball column says that Republicans will take back the House and have a shot at the Senate. And if they come short in the Senate, then the Kingmakers will be Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman--Uggh. I'm still not there yet on either predictions. I saw for one nano-second Nate Silver's House analysis, which doesn't quite indicate the House is a done deal by any means. The blog however doesn't show it yet. nate does admit that Democratic fortunes have deteriorated in the last month--but then they always do in August.
If you want a horrifying read, Will Bunch has published The Backlash: Right-wing Radicals, High-Def Hucksters, and Paranoid Politics in the Age of Obama (Harper, 2010). This is better than Markos Malitos' American Taliban because Will, an Obama supporter, actually travels through the country to interview the average Teabaggers and Glenn Beck fans and how the backlash against Obama began. And if you want to learn about which country, they want back, you can read it in this book. I had to put it down after the first 100 pages to gather strength to continue.
This is Richard Hofstader on steroids. And Bunch admits that with the network of right-wing radio stations, the internet and Fox News, the paranoid politics of today may become deadlier and more powerful than the past. He also points out that Glenn Beck is the perfect synthesis of the sickness of the media age. In this book, you're learn why Obama really didn't win the election, that the "Other" includes all urban areas, not just gays, Latinos and blacks, and that Tea Baggers are not against Big Government, just one presided over by a black Muslim Kenyan, who wants to enslave us all.
Parts of the book remind me of what Thomas Franks wrote about in What's The Matter With Kansas, where Kansas went from being an economic populist state to a right-wing conservative state. These people are actively working against policies that actually help them, many are on the border of unemployment, many have serious health issues who would benefit from health reform, and virtually none of them blame Bush and Cheney for anything. A good deal of those interviewed have self-acknowledged psychiatric and alcohol problems.and many became fundamentalist Christians after a decade of drugs and excess. A surprising number were radicals during Vietnam or Vietnam vets, who became right-wing Republicans or even Third Party members. Bunch says these people are about 25% of the voting population and believe the government is run by a bunch of elitists and rich people --true.
They truly believe the myth that the United States was created as a Christian nation and that we are literally the last hope of mankind. And they see the last election as the triumph of the Leftists, who hate America and will bring it down. And they really believe we should wage war endless against Muslims and torture them. The last thing these people are concerned about is the cost of militarising foreign policy. They positively love it.
For a devastating--if you can do that anymore--portrait of Sarah Palin, read this issue of Vanity Fair, where she tells people under her that she's so powerful she'll destroy them. A real classy dame.
The GOP strategy is to have semi-normal spokespeople accent "Jobs, Deficit and Healthcare", while allowing the Becks and Limbaughs to pile on about a Muslim President, etc. The ultimate goal is to totally de-legitmize Barack Obama and to divide Democrats from him. E.J. Dionne this morning had a piece that calls for Obama to build back his popularity to help Democrats. E.J. is being foolish here. Obama is doing better than others with such an economy and in this day of polarization it is very unlikely that even with winds at his back that he can get to 55% anytime soon.
And I found out why I like Republican Mike Castle, who was always nice to me when I ran IRI. He's the great-great-great-great (fill in the number) grandson of Ben Franklin. How cool is that? Even so Mike may be heading to defeat in Delaware against a teabagger lady. Then I would flip an automatic Republican gain to leaning Democrat.
The two new "memes" of the Republicans are that the President is incompetent (unlike ,say, George W. Bush) and he is not gracious because he did not thank Bush enough for W's role in the surge. If you ever have had any contact with Barack Obama, he is the epitome of gracious and unfailingly polite, and a warm human being. As for competence, he could quit the Presidency right now and be considered one of the formidable President in history. Given the vitriol and hate aimed at him and his family, who could blame him from just saddling up and leaving after one term. There is precedent for this. James K. Polk listed everything he wanted to accomplish in office and when he completed the list he refused to run again ,even though he would have won.
The best news in the last few days is the lack of news coverage or punditry on the Middle East peace talks. What coverage exists is cynical, skeptical and claims the Administration just needs the photo opportunity to prove their commitment to a Middle East peace process. The remnants of the neo-conservatives simply don't believe in diplomacy of any kind on anything. So they are ignoring this right now. They figure their ally Bibi Netanyahu will scuttle the talks and further damage Obama. I think they are in for a surprise. Israel came to Washington with a full complement of able negotiators on every subject that needs to be completed.
While Israeli public opinion has been polarized for the past two years, there are wiser heads suggesting something must be done in the way of transitioning to a Palestinian state. The rest of the world still has an historical memory. For 20 years, both United States and Israel's public stance has been to endorse the creation of a Palestinian state. The current administration of Mahmoud Abbas has created security and administrative structures paid for and often manned by Americans and Europeans. There have been quiet moves since the Gaza Flotilla disaster on both sides to move to some new arrangement between Israelis and Palestinians.
Yesterday, President Obama gave a one-year timetable for this to be done. Serious talks begin today and will be mediated by Secretary of State Clinton. I expect we will see some basic agreements and then the parties will leave Washington and we will see a brief flurry of pontificating. And, since all Presidents since Jimmy Carter have failed, I'm betting on Obama to succeed. Call me crazy. I just like how there are no expectations this time and no one believes it can be done. There is that time when the warring parties blink and realize no one in the outside world cares anymore. And I also believe that Hamas will recognize Israel within one or two years.
And then to the Catfood Commission and the outrage over Alan Simpson's attacks on Social Security and Veterans' Benefits. If President Obama says he's going to strengthen social security and just tinker with it to lengthen its viability, I believe him. I checked out our national budget--we now spend 58% of the annual budget on defense, and only about 4-5% in debt servicing. The bulk of the rest goes to Medicare, leaving only about 20% to pay for everything else. If Alan Simpson is beginning to grumble over veterans benefits, no matter how curlish, I think we might see the Commission actually recommend further cuts in defense spending. Everyone has started gaming the politics of the Commission, producing like Ezra Klein conclusions that it predominantly shifts right. This may be true but by December I believe the Administration will produce a very viable strategy to reduce the national debt without the catastrophic human costs the Republicans advocate.
I still don't understand the news reports that "Democrats can't repeal Bush's tax-cuts". These tax cuts naturally expire so you must affirmatively pass them again. So let's say Evan Bayh, Nelson, Lincoln and a few Democrats are in favor of tax-cuts for the rich, they must get the Senate to pass them. Their may be a compromise to extend for two years. But all these must be paid for, according to the Pay-Go rules.
Elizabeth Warren has notified Harvard she is not returning to teach contract law this year. Hmmm. Katherine Van der Heuvel of the Nation tweeted again that her nomination will be made soon. It would spark some enthusiasm among progressive Democrats and normal human beings. The New York Post printed a piece that Wall Street is bracing itself for a Warren nomination.
Maybe President Obama could make the announcement at his Labor Day speech in front of the AFL-CIO familes in Milwaukee. It's interesting to actually see a President join the AFL-CIO to celebrate Labor Day. It's been quite a while.
In mid-term elections, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball column says that Republicans will take back the House and have a shot at the Senate. And if they come short in the Senate, then the Kingmakers will be Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman--Uggh. I'm still not there yet on either predictions. I saw for one nano-second Nate Silver's House analysis, which doesn't quite indicate the House is a done deal by any means. The blog however doesn't show it yet. nate does admit that Democratic fortunes have deteriorated in the last month--but then they always do in August.
If you want a horrifying read, Will Bunch has published The Backlash: Right-wing Radicals, High-Def Hucksters, and Paranoid Politics in the Age of Obama (Harper, 2010). This is better than Markos Malitos' American Taliban because Will, an Obama supporter, actually travels through the country to interview the average Teabaggers and Glenn Beck fans and how the backlash against Obama began. And if you want to learn about which country, they want back, you can read it in this book. I had to put it down after the first 100 pages to gather strength to continue.
This is Richard Hofstader on steroids. And Bunch admits that with the network of right-wing radio stations, the internet and Fox News, the paranoid politics of today may become deadlier and more powerful than the past. He also points out that Glenn Beck is the perfect synthesis of the sickness of the media age. In this book, you're learn why Obama really didn't win the election, that the "Other" includes all urban areas, not just gays, Latinos and blacks, and that Tea Baggers are not against Big Government, just one presided over by a black Muslim Kenyan, who wants to enslave us all.
Parts of the book remind me of what Thomas Franks wrote about in What's The Matter With Kansas, where Kansas went from being an economic populist state to a right-wing conservative state. These people are actively working against policies that actually help them, many are on the border of unemployment, many have serious health issues who would benefit from health reform, and virtually none of them blame Bush and Cheney for anything. A good deal of those interviewed have self-acknowledged psychiatric and alcohol problems.and many became fundamentalist Christians after a decade of drugs and excess. A surprising number were radicals during Vietnam or Vietnam vets, who became right-wing Republicans or even Third Party members. Bunch says these people are about 25% of the voting population and believe the government is run by a bunch of elitists and rich people --true.
They truly believe the myth that the United States was created as a Christian nation and that we are literally the last hope of mankind. And they see the last election as the triumph of the Leftists, who hate America and will bring it down. And they really believe we should wage war endless against Muslims and torture them. The last thing these people are concerned about is the cost of militarising foreign policy. They positively love it.
For a devastating--if you can do that anymore--portrait of Sarah Palin, read this issue of Vanity Fair, where she tells people under her that she's so powerful she'll destroy them. A real classy dame.
The GOP strategy is to have semi-normal spokespeople accent "Jobs, Deficit and Healthcare", while allowing the Becks and Limbaughs to pile on about a Muslim President, etc. The ultimate goal is to totally de-legitmize Barack Obama and to divide Democrats from him. E.J. Dionne this morning had a piece that calls for Obama to build back his popularity to help Democrats. E.J. is being foolish here. Obama is doing better than others with such an economy and in this day of polarization it is very unlikely that even with winds at his back that he can get to 55% anytime soon.
And I found out why I like Republican Mike Castle, who was always nice to me when I ran IRI. He's the great-great-great-great (fill in the number) grandson of Ben Franklin. How cool is that? Even so Mike may be heading to defeat in Delaware against a teabagger lady. Then I would flip an automatic Republican gain to leaning Democrat.
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