No Country For Old Men--A Reprise

Alan Simpson, the Republican co-chair of the Catfood Commission, complained about attacks from conservatives that he raised taxes while in the Senate under Ronald Reagan. While he denied it, Bruce Bartlett came to the critics' rescue by pointing out that the Big Ron did raise dozens of taxes.



John McCain looked like an old stumblebum prize-fighter in his debate with Democratic challenger Rodney Glassman and the Green and Libertarian candidates in Arizona. Actually the Libertarian got in the best shots declaring the immigration problem would not be so violent if we declared an end to the war on drugs, which he called a monumental failure, and that building the "danged" fence was futile because people were now coming in by plane and by sea. McCain kept saying he had a 10 point plan but never elaborated. McCain said it was urgent to pass the Bush tax cuts urgently as well as corporate tax breaks. He said he knew how to make America great again, something he failed to reveal when he ran for President. A couple of whoppers. McCain, who has benefited from a lifetime of government-provided health services, declared he would cut $500 billion from Medicare Advantage. (I have no idea over what time frame.) When asked what he thought his legacy would be to Arizona, McCain was speechless and started mumbling, saying fighting earmarks and his influence on security issues. It was a big bomb. Rodney Glassman scored about the need for a rational immigration policy like the one McCain used to support, a larger stimulus package for the economy and better care for veterans, Glassman failed to score off McCain with any questions about the price of tax cuts for the wealthy. But McCain looked old and beaten up--which, of course, he is.



A Quinnipiac poll was released today that shows that 2/3rds of those making $250,000 or above favor paying more taxes if it helps the government.



David Stockman, Reagan's former OMB person, is getting his revenge late in life. On NPR, he said that the Republican pledge was nonsense. He pointed out that the Bush tax cuts were paid for, two wars were not paid for, the stimulus package was not paid for and that extending these tax cuts was insane. He also pointed out that the Pledge made no sense if Medicare, Social Security and Defense are off limits, then Republicans can only cut from $500 billion and they can not possibly fulfill their pledge of a balanced budget.



Garret Gruener's LA Times op-ed caught the attention of the Wall Street Journal. Gruener is an entrepreneur and a venture capitalist who founded Alta partners. So in the words of the Wall Street Journal,"he's got street cred." He made two basic points. 1. Tax rates don't make or break the success of an entrepreneur--or the jobs he creates. He says he's paying the lowest rates of his working life. "..if you want the simple, honest truth, from my perspective as an entrepreneur, the fluctuation didn't affect what I did with my money. None of my investments has ever been motivated by the rate at which I would have to pay personal income tax."



The second point Gruener raises --which is appropriate to my last few posts--an economy built only on the rich--who account for the lion's share of income and spending--is unsustainable. "What American businesspeople know, and have known since Henry Ford insisted his employees be able to afford to buy the cars they made, is that a thriving economy doesn't just need investors; it needs people who can buy the goods and services businesses create."

Gruener says that tax hikes for the rich should be invested by the government in infrastructure and research. "What will change my investment decisions is if I see an economy doing better, one in which there is demand for the goods and services my investments produce. I am far more likely to invest if I see a country laying the foundation for future growth."

Follow that up with Paul Krugman's columm today entitled "Structure of Excuses". Krugman is on fire, if someone so phlegmatic can ever be on fire. Krugman attacks directly the growing convention wisdom that we are entering a period of "structural unemployment". He quotes various Presidents of FED Banks claiming that there is work out there but workers are either in the wrong place or lack the necessary skills. Even Bill Clinton said this. Krugman sets up the circumstances where that would actually exist but none do. There are only three states, with the combined population of Brooklyn that have unemployment rates below 5%. The National Federation of Independent Business surveys small businesses about their problems and citing problems with labor quality is now at an all-time low.

Krugman asks why are such claims so popular. Part of the reason is that during period of high unemployment pundits talking about these problems as deeply rooted makes them sound profound. Also he detects that powerful forces ideologically opposed to the whole idea of government action on a sufficient scale to jump-start the economy offer these reasons so as to ensure we do nothing about the mass unemployment crippling the economy. As Krugman notes that is important that everyone know that there is no evidence whatsoever that backs these claims. "We aren't suffering from a shortage of needed skills; we're suffering from a lack of policy reasolve."

A nice bit in his column is his review of what Very Serious People said during the Great Depression. He notes that one 1935 analysis said that unemployment cannot be brought down rapidly because the work force" is unadaptable and untrained. It cannot respond to the opportunities which industries may offer." A few years later , a large defense buildup finally provided a fiscal stimulus adequate to the economy's needs and industry was eager to employ those "unadaptable and untrained "workers.

Nice column.

And, of course, part of the reason job-creating programs are not being created is the Senate filibuster. Electoral politics.com had a nice piece on the prospects of filibuster reform. The 111th Senate had over 100 filibusters. From the years 1917-1960, there were 27, about 1 per year. During the entire 19th century, which saw the abolitionist struggle, a civil war and the rise of industrial capitalism, there were only 20 filibusters. The Republicans in this Senate have managed to hold enough filibusters in one year to equal in nearly double the number all American history combined. Stunning. The Democrats should really make this a talking point and dramatize it.

Electoral politics.com has a small entry which may have enormous implications for the mid-terms. Non-partisan polls are in on 45 contested House races. The Republicans would pick up 10 of these. In the wildest scenarios, there are 100 seats ,which people say are competitive tis year. That would mean the Republicans would pick up 22 seats. Remember they need 44 to take the House, given losses in 5. Maybe the GOP has over-reached again.

For Sarah Palin, this could be bad news. Scientific studies show that Mama Grizzlies, the name she calls her tea party women, form same-sex partnerships at a fairly significant rate. The Mama Grizzlies actually search out each other and serve as joint parents for the cubs. This won't go down with the anti-same sex mariage crowd.

Ann Coulter spoke at the Homocon meeting with wealthy gay Republicans, where she did her stand-up schtick and criticized gay marriage by reminding the audience they weren't black. Judy Garland she's not but it's clear she performed her duties, providing moments of Camp for the crowd. The audience apparently were offended by her racist remarks more than anything.

California polls are showing that there really is a Latino backlash against Republicans. Democrats are polling higher than usual with the Latino community, which now composes 21% of the electorate. This is showing up in states with growing Latino populations--Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico.

Normally Republicans would be thrilled Texas will gain 4 new congressional seats with the 2010 Census. But with the rise of the Latino vote there and the GOP's efforts to alienate anyone who speaks Spanish, look to Texas to become the mother of all swing states by 2012.

Republicans are looking to turn several of Ohio's congressional seats this year. As of two weeks ago, it looked like they might pick up 5 here. But recent polls are showing that the race between Governor Strickland and John Kasich is narrowing. Kasich was running some 10 points ahead but the University of Cincinnati Ohio poll has it a four point race. And this is a very well-respected state poll.

A New Survey USA poll mirrors the recent Public Policy Poll by showing that Rand Paul is only running two points up against Jack Conway (49-47%).

I'm surprised how little support Democrats are giving Scott McAdams in Alaska. McAdams, the mayor of Sitka, is running against a true looney-toon. McAdams is worried about Murkowski's write-in campaign because "it divides the rational vote." Good choice of words. Put together, that vote tops Miller.

Mike Castle is doing a little polling for a write-in campaign in Delaware and it's showing he would have a real chance--being favored among independents over Coons. And among Republicans , he would draw roughly the same as he did in the primary.

While the GOP is funding Green candidates in Texas, Illinois, maybe Arizona and elsewhere, the Democrats are apparently doing the same with so-called Tea Party candidates. Turn about is fair play.

Pledge--a Big Flop

It didn't take long for all opinion magazines and bloggers on both the right and left to laugh off the Pledge to America. Having read over two dozen comments, the comments range from pablum and worn-out ideas to "the worst thing to come out of Washington since General McClellan"--that's from a conservative. Conservatives claim that Republicans made no specific recommendations or ways to cut the deficit and do not believe Republicans have the discipline to enact their own program. Democrats rightfully claim this is a full-blown return to the George W. Bush policies and will only vastly increase the deficit. AP and other wires claim there are no new ideas and no specifics but rather it was aimed to make the base feel good. The Religious Right condemned it because being anti-abortion doesn't go far enough anymore with them. Foreign policy mavens note that both Iraq and Afghanistan are barely mentioned and that the only foreign policy issue is tightening sanctions against Iran, which one conservative dismisses as inadequate to the threat. He was hoping for a more hawkish invade Iran.But one person noted with relief that Republicans were not advocating going back to "enhanced interrogation" of everyone suspected of being a terrorist. So this was counted as progress. China, Pakistan, Europe, Africa and everyplace on planet Earth was neglected, despite the Pledge mentioning that the USA was the hope of all mankind.

Marc Ambinder lamented the fact the Republicans didn't write it so the Democrats couldn't demagogue it. Sorry Marc. Then one post on Dailykos actually went through all the photographs in the release and noted that every photo showed white people with the possible exception of a black person in the back of a restaurant shot. And even that was in doubt. After all, the Republican base is all white now. I'm surprised they didn't just limit the photographs to white men over 55.

The Tan Man did say today that he has never been in a tanning salon. Maybe he should get the tax on tanning beds repealed.

One error from yesterday, I miswrote that it it was Queen Meg Whitman , who was going to be feted by the Koch Brothers, but it is Carly Fiorina. I guess Carly really does need more money for her campaign, while Queen Meg has enough of her own. Speaking of the Koch Brothers, the Manhattan based one now has surpassed Michael Bloomberg as the richest person in New York City.

The Senate missed by one vote today to hold a vote on the Disclose Act, which would require companies to openly identify with political ads. The bill passed the House with only 1 Republican vote. I guess the one who isn't getting corporate funding. Rumors suggested Senator Durbin was to put forward the Dream Act today.

If anyone can tell me what the Democrats' strategy on tax cuts is, I'd appreciate it. Earlier in the day the House reported that there would be no vote before the election since they were waiting on the Senate and believed it would be filibustered. At that time, Democrats argued that they had already made a strong case against the Republicans. My problem with this is that most people actually believe Obama raised their taxes, even though they received a tax cut through the stimulus package. Politically, I think it's important to box the Republicans in on this to establish the high ground for the election. By late afternoon, David Axelrod said that they wanted a vote even if it failed for just that reason. Obama took the tax issue away from the Republicans in 2008 and until now has kept it for himself. But letting the Republicans out of the box now would diffuse the strength of the Democrats' position. Keep tuning in.

But as I said, if you let all tax cuts expire, you have a balanced budget. Besides read today a long article that showed that the tax cuts for any bracket did absolutely zero for the economy and of course did not raise revenues for the Government as promised by the Republicans.

The GOP is trying to push aside our anti-semite candidate I mentioned yesterday. They are also annoyed that Mike Castle is threatening to have a write in campaign for Senator in Delaware. he has the easier issue that everyone can spell his name because it's the name of a County in the state, while the name Murkowski just confuses people in Alaska.

Polls suggest that Hapless Harry Reid still has an upward battle in Nevada against John Bircher Sharron Angle. But he could be saved because there is also a spot for "None of the Above", whch actually won one recent race in Nevada.

I still Russ Feingold is toast and not from the polling data. There is a serious effort to cage votes in all the student areas of Wisconsin, where he would draw considerable support. This effort is being led by the Tea Party and Americans for Prosperity.

Rahm Emmanuel looks like he will be leaving the White House in October to run for Mayor of Chicago. David Axelrod is leaving in 2011 to begin the organization for Obama's re-election run.

Finally, a poll was released yesterday that pissed-off Democrats are more likely to vote and not those satisfied with the way things are.

Back from Away

Only two hours away from the United States and America looked ridiculous. From abroad, we look like a bad reality show with the sans culottes running around. Tea parties are for little girls with imaginary friends. Apparenty, there seem to be alot around. The victory of Christine O'Donnell in Delware is like randomly picking a neighbor to be a nominee for the U.S. Senate. Imagine my surprise when from afar I saw Karl Rove actually accuse a Republican of waging a dirty campaign. After all he is the architect. But he soon came back to support her. The question is whether her victory will solidify the larger story of the Republican Party simply going mad.

I came back to E.J. Dionne wakening from a deep sleep to discover moderates are gone from the Republican Party, something anyone breathing could tell you after the last 18 months. Olympia Snowe, who was a long-time friend of Mike Castle from their days in the House, lamented the diminishing number of moderate conservatives left in both chambers. In her home state of Maine, where she won re-election with over 70% of the vote, the tea baggers have taken over the Republican Party and now 68% of them want a more conservative nominee than Snowe the next time around. The role of Senator deMint in fostering runs against incumbent Republicans is beginning to tick Republicans off. Charles Cook, who had predicted a Republican takeover of both houses of Congress has backed off, saying that the O'Donnell win ends the GOP's chances for a victory in the Senate.

How bad is Christine O'Donnell? Besides the various appearances on Bill Maher's comedy shows, she has been sued by a Farleigh Dickinson University for failure to pay outstanding debts, she accepted a graduate scholarship at Claremont even though she didn't graduate from college until this year, and she paid her rent and personal expenses from campaign funds from the last campaign against Joe Biden. She says she is being followed everywhere and must check her bushes. She keeps her home residence private because bill collectors are after her. And she hasn't had a real job in years. She sounds like Allan Keyes without the minimal qualifications.

She must be bad news. The night she beat Mike Castle, his campaign manager walked across the street to the Coons headquarters and picked up lawn signs for Coons. Christine O'Donnell also has imaginary friends--she claims to have been backed by a Catholic group that simply doesn't exist.

What observers have not mentioned about the five tea bagger candidates for the Senate is that all of them are extreme Christian right-wingers, even Marco Rubio in Florida, who is more of an opportunist. Christine O'Donnell is the most visible extreme Christian after Christian reconstructionist Sharron Angle. Joining Ken Buck, they are absolutists against abortion, even though they proclaim to be small government conservatives. Throw in Mike Lee from Utah and Joe Miller from Alaska and you have candidates that have no ideas about the economy whatsoever.

Another characteristic is that almost all, with the exception of Rubio, avoid debates and the press. This is a deliberate strategy because they want to avoid expsoure to the average voter. Joe Miller on Fox News was a astonishing in his economic illiteracy. He claims unemployment insurance is unconstitutional--something the Supreme Court has actually ruled on. And he claims we are going to face almost $140 trillion in a national debt in a short time--that's ten times the amount we have now. He wants to end Social Security and Medicare. This seems to be a tea bagger perennial.

A Canadian said to me that these people don't care, they've given up. In a way, he is right. They have given up on self-government. That's why there are no standards by which they observe. Lisa Murkowski commented how the tea baggers pumped $600,000 into Alaska to run a campiagn against her totally based on lies. If you check comments out of Ms. O'Donnell's mouth you'll also notice that she is a habitual liar. The same applies to Sharron Angle and the other tea baggers. In their worldview, this simply doesn't matter.

SO AFTER A WEEK, how do the mid-terms look? Nate the Great still has the Republicans taking the house by 223 to 211 but he has blinked somewhat upping the odds of the Democrats retaining control to 37%. The Republicans are now campaigning on de-funding everything that passed in the last Congress--which ups the stakes for Democrats. And if you care about the national debt, keeping the Bush tax cuts for the rich will add another 3.8trillion to the national debt. Interestingly, all the teabaggers are for keeping the tax cuts for the wealthy. Paul Krugman had a wonderful op-ed about the selfish rich today.

But what still makes me hesitate is the massive unpopularity of the Republicans as compared to the 1994 wave election. For example, a CBS/NYTimes poll conducted September 15 has Republican approval at 20%. In a Washington Post poll on who deserves to be re-elected, Democrats top Republicans 34 to 31%. But what is most astonishing is that the GOP net favorable is now a negative 25, which means they have fallen by three times since July. And now President Obama is in the campaign mode and Organizing For America has ramped up their operations even more since I left. Remember President Obama has about a 48% approval rating, while campaigning against people with a 20% approval rating. The AFL-CIO just sent out their largest mailing in years to solidfy the Democratic base. Even though there is little more than 40 days left to the election, I think only a small percentage of Obama surge voters can turn the tide. I also have noticed that even the disgruntled Left is getting its act together because they understand the stakes.

President Obama did himself and the rest of us a service by appointing Elizabeth Warren special adviser with the task of creating the new Consumer Protection Agency. But I have a question? What in Elizabeth Warren's speeches make her a "progressive"? I know she appeared at Netroots Nation and frequently on the Rachel Maddow Show. But when is defending the middle class the sole property of "progressives"? The whining from the Republicans about her should tell you how far that party has grown away from the middle class. But nothing Elizabeth Warren has said or written is anything but clear-headed and commonsensical. I read in the Washington Post that her appointment was popular but polarizing. After watching countless interviews and Youtubes of her lectures, I can not think of a less polarizing figure. I think any fair-minded person would see her as a straight-talking person of intelligence and commonsense. Already we have the Wall Street Journal raising doubts about whether she can really create the Consumer Protection Agency because of legal restrictions and other hoo-haa. This reminds me of the constant challenge on anything President Obama does.

For election junkies, Steve Singiser had an interesting post at the Daily Kos "Likely Voters, Unlikely Voters" about the accuracy of polls based on registered voters versus those of likely voters. The conventional wisdom is that likely voter polls favor Republicans, particularly in low-turn out mid-terms. But what Singiser's analysis shows is that likely voter polls generally favor the front-runner. But at the end of the day, his analysis of polls from 2006 and 2008 indicate that polls based on registered voters won 32, polls on likely voters 21 and three were ties. For a full analysis, his post is worth reading because it's conclusion is counter-intuitive to how ,at least, I've been taught to think.

And file this away--I just came across my notes on Hans-Herman Hoppe, who is a favorite of libertarians. When thinking of the tea-baggers, remember Hoppe advocated something called "anarcho-fascism". He wrote "Democracy: the God That Failed". Through in a dab of Christian theocracy and you basically have tea-baggism.

Friday Wrap-Up

Nate the Great Silver at www.fivethirtyeight.com has finally delivered his House predictions. He puts the odds at 2 out of 3 for Republicans to take back the House. Feeding all the polls, money factors and other odds and ends in his kitchen sink, he comes out with probable gains of between 45 and 50 seats, slightly less than 1994. But remember this is the first time out for his House picks.

I have read two more studies of computer runs that came out identical --the GOP taking the House by one seat. That would be a 40 seat pick-up. Then with about a dozen ethics cases breaking against the GOP, within moments everything would be up in the air again.

Meanwhile, Byron York writing in the Washington Examiner quotes several off-the-record Republicans skeptical about the tidal wave election. Only Vin Weber came forth to be quoted directly. The view was that the intensity gap would start to close as traditional Democratic base groups like Labor ramp up their efforts and Democrats will come back to the fold. Weber also points out the managerial mess at the RNC and the lack of organizational structure in the Republican efforts. Robert Craemer also wrote an article pointing out the same thing that the Democrats at this point have huge cash advantages and better organization. Like Weber, he pointed to the difference with 1994 in that Republicans have a worse approval rating by far than the Democrats and that all their allies like Big Business, the Health Insurance industry, and Banks have far worse approval ratings than even the GOP.

Meanwhile on the campaign trail, Democrats are showing they are holding their own in Swing States. Eastman in Ohio now has edged Rob Portman in the Ohio Senate race; Boxer again leads Fiorina, Marco Rubio only holds a few point lead over Crist, and Democrats are out in front in House seats, which everyone has predicted as goners. In my opinion, there seems to be some solidifying in the Democratic position. However, on the overall House front, it's hard to tell.

Always remember Nate the Great's predictions are his first cut and he keeps updating the model as we come closer to the election. On another front, several pollsters are pointing to the GOP taking 27 state houses and not 30 as Nate predicts.

In any event, aren't you glad Obama got most of the big stuff out of the way first? People criticized him for doing too much too soon but it showed he understood that the honeymoon would be quick as every President knows.

The big news from today's press conference was that President Obama didn't wear his wedding ring. Really. The greatest question was "Do you think you've been a failure because you have captured or killed Bin Laden yet?" And you wonder why Republicans might have a chance? Or maybe that's Obama's October Surprise--wouldn't that be great.

Christine O'Donnell, the teabagger candidate for the Senate in Delaware, went really over the line. She has aired a commercial suggesting that Mike Castle is cheating on his wife with a man. This has been a constant theme for her in the last week suggesting Mike Castle is gay. The producer of the ad said that "We have no proof of this but we thought we would put it out there anyway." Stay classy--that's the motto of the New Conservatives. While Castle claims his own polls show he will win but today hinted he might run as an independent. (FYI--I know many of the GOP who really are gay, many who lead the conservative movement--but I have never heard this about former Governor Castle. Then, of course, so what?)

Lisa Murkowski is trying to get back into the Alaska race and is in negotiations with the Libertarian Party. How this would play out is anyone's guess.

In New Hampshire , the teabagger candidate is gaining ground on the Attorney-General Ayottte and if victorious David Hodes, the Democrat, has a real chance at picking up the seat.

While the President lectured us again about the right of Muslims to worship freely, Newt Gingrich and Calissa have released a new DVD "A Nation At Risk", which argues that the United States is in danger from Muslims because they want world conquest.

It's clear it's no coincidence that Pastor Jones was a high school classmate of Rush Limbaugh. The last we heard from Pastor Jones he gave the Imam of the Park 51 project two hours to agree to move the Islamic Center or he would burn the Quran. The Westboro Baptist Church is hurt that no one saw them burn Qurans in 2008. So now they are going to burn both Qurans and the American Flag. Kudos to the London Telegraph for being the only newspaper to have printed how Pastor Jones uses his congregation as 'slave" labor to support his for-profit business.

A correction from yesterday's post. Some of Obama's tax breaks will be beneficial, particularly the ability of business to write off 100% on capital equipment in one year. I learned this from Ed Schultz, who has several small businesses of his own. And yes David Axelrod had to clarify that President Obama would veto a bill with tax breaks for the richest. Senator Voinovich said that he would back Obama's small business bill, making it 60 Senators. So it should hit the floor next week sometime.

In his press conference, President Obama came very close again to naming Elizabeth Warren as the first head of the Consumer Protection Agency. Just get it over with!

One member of the press asked why with Financial Reform passed two months ago, nothing has changed? One third of the stimulus package hasn't been spent yet so why haven't we seen the final results? Jesus Louise, these guys are amazing.

President Obama is thinking of appointing an envoy for manufacturing. I guess you can't call it a Czar or that would make Glenn Beck's blackboard. President Obama is the biggest advocate for small business since Ronald Reagan and like Ronald Reagan is one of the few Presidents actually to talk about American manufacturing. A point I told a right-winger who called me today to ask,"Are you sorry you voted for Obama yet?" When I pointed these two things out--there were crickets.

The Republicans did win a big victory yesterday. A Federal judge ruled Don't Ask Don't Tell unconstitutional. The suit was brought by the Log Cabin Republicans, whose members include many gay veterans. Think about it -- the leading conservative lawyer wins the Prop 8 case with a Republican judge ruling; Gay marriage is upheld by a Republican Supreme Court in Iowa. And the DOMA act is ruled unconstitutional by another Republican judge. This all might be an aftermath of the dominance of the conservative movement by the gays in the 1980s. What will the Focus on Your Family crowd think?

The AFL-CIO this week warned Sarah Palin that if she kept up her slander of the labor movement she would join the ranks of people like Joe McCarthy. But she already has. Her adviser is Greta Van Cistern's husband, a leader in the scientology movement, and Greta herself, is the daugher of---get ready for this--Joe McCarthy's campaign manager. Greta should fly down to Nevada to get Sharron Angle to write out her list of the domestic enemies in Congress, something Michelle Bachmann also claims. Then her destiny would be complete.

The Arnold is getting a little snarky. He tweeted while flying to Asia from Alaska he couldn't see Russia from the airport.

Tomorrow Sister Sarah and Glenn Beck will host a boozefest celebrating 9-11. Glenn Beck has already been shamed by the news media to donate his speaking fee to charity. No word from the Sister. Some wag suggested that the two were celebrating the September 11, 1973 overthrow of Salvador Allende by Pinochet.

Liz Cheney is running attack ads against Admiral Sestak in Pennsylvania, claiming he was weak on Israel. Whatever that means these days. Her candidate Club for Greed candidate Pat Toomey came out today against the Hate Bill legislation,saying you can't legislate how people think. But you can legislate on how people are physically tortured and killed because of their race or gender preference.

I actually had a conversation today with a conservative Republican who really wants to repeal the 14th Amendment. He also once argued that it was a shame slavery was outlawed because it ruined the South's economy. Am reading now White Cargo: the Forgotten History of Britain's White Slaves in America by Dan Jordan and Michael Walsh. To my horror my fantasy retirement land--Popham Beach in Maine--was the site of a Fort to house White Slaves on the Kennebec River in the 17th century. Maybe the counter to the Christian Revisionist History of the American Revolution is to consider our rebellion against Britain as the first White Slave Revolt.

President Obama's plan for a $50 billion multi-year project to rehabilitate and modernize America's infrastructure is almost two decades overdue. The last time a President addressed this issue was Dwight David Eisenhower with the creation of the interstate highway system, which created a national market for the first time in our history. So I guess it's appropriate that David Eisenhower is about to print a memoir of the last decade of Ike's life at Gettysburg. David had won the pulitzer for his account of his grandfather in war-time. The Eisenhowers, including David and his wife Julie Nixon, backed Barack Obama's bid for the White House. Maybe he felt compelled to re-insert his grandfather into the national debate. After all it was during Ike that the John Birch Society was created, and it was under Obama that the conservative movemment welcomed it back into the fold after decades of exile.

Cleaning Up The Mess and Other Items

After listening to President Obama's speech on Iraq and having heard him in New Orleans a few days before, it is staggering the amount of destruction he has to clean up and ,at the same time, how he has to rhetorically thread the needle. I am still haunted by Gore Vidal's comment that "Barack Obama's problem is that he is too intelligent to lead people like Americans." He is going up against the perpetual myth of American indispensability and God-given destiny as the number 1 country on the planet. There simply is no room for reflecting on how we are now lagging behind almost every developed country in the world in every category that measures the quality of life. While every speech of the Administration incorporates some aspect of how we are developing the tools to continue to lead the world, our own parochialism blinds us to the reality that the world really is moving on without us and that today's America, while still the wealthiest country on the planet, is in tatters.

The two new "memes" of the Republicans are that the President is incompetent (unlike ,say, George W. Bush) and he is not gracious because he did not thank Bush enough for W's role in the surge. If you ever have had any contact with Barack Obama, he is the epitome of gracious and unfailingly polite, and a warm human being. As for competence, he could quit the Presidency right now and be considered one of the formidable President in history. Given the vitriol and hate aimed at him and his family, who could blame him from just saddling up and leaving after one term. There is precedent for this. James K. Polk listed everything he wanted to accomplish in office and when he completed the list he refused to run again ,even though he would have won.

The best news in the last few days is the lack of news coverage or punditry on the Middle East peace talks. What coverage exists is cynical, skeptical and claims the Administration just needs the photo opportunity to prove their commitment to a Middle East peace process. The remnants of the neo-conservatives simply don't believe in diplomacy of any kind on anything. So they are ignoring this right now. They figure their ally Bibi Netanyahu will scuttle the talks and further damage Obama. I think they are in for a surprise. Israel came to Washington with a full complement of able negotiators on every subject that needs to be completed.

While Israeli public opinion has been polarized for the past two years, there are wiser heads suggesting something must be done in the way of transitioning to a Palestinian state. The rest of the world still has an historical memory. For 20 years, both United States and Israel's public stance has been to endorse the creation of a Palestinian state. The current administration of Mahmoud Abbas has created security and administrative structures paid for and often manned by Americans and Europeans. There have been quiet moves since the Gaza Flotilla disaster on both sides to move to some new arrangement between Israelis and Palestinians.

Yesterday, President Obama gave a one-year timetable for this to be done. Serious talks begin today and will be mediated by Secretary of State Clinton. I expect we will see some basic agreements and then the parties will leave Washington and we will see a brief flurry of pontificating. And, since all Presidents since Jimmy Carter have failed, I'm betting on Obama to succeed. Call me crazy. I just like how there are no expectations this time and no one believes it can be done. There is that time when the warring parties blink and realize no one in the outside world cares anymore. And I also believe that Hamas will recognize Israel within one or two years.

And then to the Catfood Commission and the outrage over Alan Simpson's attacks on Social Security and Veterans' Benefits. If President Obama says he's going to strengthen social security and just tinker with it to lengthen its viability, I believe him. I checked out our national budget--we now spend 58% of the annual budget on defense, and only about 4-5% in debt servicing. The bulk of the rest goes to Medicare, leaving only about 20% to pay for everything else. If Alan Simpson is beginning to grumble over veterans benefits, no matter how curlish, I think we might see the Commission actually recommend further cuts in defense spending. Everyone has started gaming the politics of the Commission, producing like Ezra Klein conclusions that it predominantly shifts right. This may be true but by December I believe the Administration will produce a very viable strategy to reduce the national debt without the catastrophic human costs the Republicans advocate.

I still don't understand the news reports that "Democrats can't repeal Bush's tax-cuts". These tax cuts naturally expire so you must affirmatively pass them again. So let's say Evan Bayh, Nelson, Lincoln and a few Democrats are in favor of tax-cuts for the rich, they must get the Senate to pass them. Their may be a compromise to extend for two years. But all these must be paid for, according to the Pay-Go rules.

Elizabeth Warren has notified Harvard she is not returning to teach contract law this year. Hmmm. Katherine Van der Heuvel of the Nation tweeted again that her nomination will be made soon. It would spark some enthusiasm among progressive Democrats and normal human beings. The New York Post printed a piece that Wall Street is bracing itself for a Warren nomination.

Maybe President Obama could make the announcement at his Labor Day speech in front of the AFL-CIO familes in Milwaukee. It's interesting to actually see a President join the AFL-CIO to celebrate Labor Day. It's been quite a while.

In mid-term elections, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball column says that Republicans will take back the House and have a shot at the Senate. And if they come short in the Senate, then the Kingmakers will be Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman--Uggh. I'm still not there yet on either predictions. I saw for one nano-second Nate Silver's House analysis, which doesn't quite indicate the House is a done deal by any means. The blog however doesn't show it yet. nate does admit that Democratic fortunes have deteriorated in the last month--but then they always do in August.

If you want a horrifying read, Will Bunch has published The Backlash: Right-wing Radicals, High-Def Hucksters, and Paranoid Politics in the Age of Obama (Harper, 2010). This is better than Markos Malitos' American Taliban because Will, an Obama supporter, actually travels through the country to interview the average Teabaggers and Glenn Beck fans and how the backlash against Obama began. And if you want to learn about which country, they want back, you can read it in this book. I had to put it down after the first 100 pages to gather strength to continue.

This is Richard Hofstader on steroids. And Bunch admits that with the network of right-wing radio stations, the internet and Fox News, the paranoid politics of today may become deadlier and more powerful than the past. He also points out that Glenn Beck is the perfect synthesis of the sickness of the media age. In this book, you're learn why Obama really didn't win the election, that the "Other" includes all urban areas, not just gays, Latinos and blacks, and that Tea Baggers are not against Big Government, just one presided over by a black Muslim Kenyan, who wants to enslave us all.

Parts of the book remind me of what Thomas Franks wrote about in What's The Matter With Kansas, where Kansas went from being an economic populist state to a right-wing conservative state. These people are actively working against policies that actually help them, many are on the border of unemployment, many have serious health issues who would benefit from health reform, and virtually none of them blame Bush and Cheney for anything. A good deal of those interviewed have self-acknowledged psychiatric and alcohol problems.and many became fundamentalist Christians after a decade of drugs and excess. A surprising number were radicals during Vietnam or Vietnam vets, who became right-wing Republicans or even Third Party members. Bunch says these people are about 25% of the voting population and believe the government is run by a bunch of elitists and rich people --true.

They truly believe the myth that the United States was created as a Christian nation and that we are literally the last hope of mankind. And they see the last election as the triumph of the Leftists, who hate America and will bring it down. And they really believe we should wage war endless against Muslims and torture them. The last thing these people are concerned about is the cost of militarising foreign policy. They positively love it.

For a devastating--if you can do that anymore--portrait of Sarah Palin, read this issue of Vanity Fair, where she tells people under her that she's so powerful she'll destroy them. A real classy dame.

The GOP strategy is to have semi-normal spokespeople accent "Jobs, Deficit and Healthcare", while allowing the Becks and Limbaughs to pile on about a Muslim President, etc. The ultimate goal is to totally de-legitmize Barack Obama and to divide Democrats from him. E.J. Dionne this morning had a piece that calls for Obama to build back his popularity to help Democrats. E.J. is being foolish here. Obama is doing better than others with such an economy and in this day of polarization it is very unlikely that even with winds at his back that he can get to 55% anytime soon.

And I found out why I like Republican Mike Castle, who was always nice to me when I ran IRI. He's the great-great-great-great (fill in the number) grandson of Ben Franklin. How cool is that? Even so Mike may be heading to defeat in Delaware against a teabagger lady. Then I would flip an automatic Republican gain to leaning Democrat.