Showing posts with label Dailykos post on bias in some polls.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dailykos post on bias in some polls.. Show all posts

Monday, September 12, 2016

I know Nate,Dailykos, Talking Points Have Hillary weakening BUT

++Sam Wang stands strong with Hillary at 324 Evs and Trump 214. She's still at 83 to 90% odds while Nate Silver has her down.

++Nate says the battleground states are tightening but his colleague Harry Etten says Trump's momentum has stalled.

++Now I read someone's post at Dailykos which raises questions about today's JMC poll of Florida. The post suggests non-white Americans will constitute about 32% of the electorate this year. Whether Hispanics or Asian-Americans , robocalls penalize the non-English speaking. The post also suggests the demographic breakdown in the Florida poll doesn't not capture the African-Americans or the full Hispanic representation. He cites the dire polling of Trump among the different groups and finds in this JMC much higher support--better than Romney among Hispanics and African-Americans. Impossible. No single poll should sway you but the post was a healthy reminder that in states with large non-white blocs pay particular attention to how the poll was conducted and what % non-shite play. 

++States where this plays are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada,Florida,and even North Carolina. Expect Clinton to be a point or so under where she really is.