SAM WANG 98%->99%

Sam reproduces his tweet of October 21st where he said it was all over and if Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes he will eat a bug.

Lesser meta-margin for Hillary seems to be affecting down ballot races. The Comey factor ,my opinion, will affect Senate races.

SAM WANG AT HIS WEBSITE

Under "Testing the polarization Hypothesis",Sam expands on his Times' piece. He opined that stories have three-day cycles, so he says Trump is now due for a bad story. The whole piece makes interesting reading and he urges readers to focus of Senate races.

SAM WANG

++339 EV 199EV, Meta-Margin +4.9%
Random Drift 97%, Bayesian 99%.

MESSAGE FROM SAM WANG.

"It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes,I will eat a bug." (Sam doesn't like bugs, by the way.)

PEC (SAM WANG)

++Clinton 317, Trump 221, meta-margin 3.1%

Probabilities: 86% to 91%

SAM WANG HAS A DEBATE SURPRISE FOR YOU.

++Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV, Random rift 79%, Bayesian 87%, meta-margin now back to 2.4%.

++Surprising that Democrats' potability to take back the Senate is 52%.

TONIGHT'S AGGREGATORS

++UPSHOT-- CLINTON HAS 74% CHANCE OF WINNING THE PRESIDENCY.

++NATE SILVER--CLINTON HAS 59.3% CHANCE WITH 287 ELECTORAL VOTES--46.6% OF THE POPULAR VOTE.

++SAM WANG AND HIS BAND OF REKNOWN. 80-88% CHANCE WITH 308 EVS. DEMOCRATS HAVE 66% CHANCE OF WINNING THE SENATE.

I know Nate,Dailykos, Talking Points Have Hillary weakening BUT

++Sam Wang stands strong with Hillary at 324 Evs and Trump 214. She's still at 83 to 90% odds while Nate Silver has her down.

++Nate says the battleground states are tightening but his colleague Harry Etten says Trump's momentum has stalled.

++Now I read someone's post at Dailykos which raises questions about today's JMC poll of Florida. The post suggests non-white Americans will constitute about 32% of the electorate this year. Whether Hispanics or Asian-Americans , robocalls penalize the non-English speaking. The post also suggests the demographic breakdown in the Florida poll doesn't not capture the African-Americans or the full Hispanic representation. He cites the dire polling of Trump among the different groups and finds in this JMC much higher support--better than Romney among Hispanics and African-Americans. Impossible. No single poll should sway you but the post was a healthy reminder that in states with large non-white blocs pay particular attention to how the poll was conducted and what % non-shite play. 

++States where this plays are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada,Florida,and even North Carolina. Expect Clinton to be a point or so under where she really is.

Andrew Sullivan Returns!

++Andrew writes his first piece for New York magazine--Trump, an extinction event. Really it's title is about how Democracies die. Andrew writes about the fascist tendencies of Trump and his followers but points out that this does a disservice to fascism which was an ideology. But Andrew is wrong there as I have pointed out on this blog that all fascism starts out without a program and eventually creates one after taking power.

++He points to Trump's popularity as based on working class whites who have felt our culture has left them behind.Hence the attacks on "political correctness". These people believe the culture mocks their religion,their gender identity and their occupations. Trump's misogyny is tailored to his white male supporters feeling woman are dominant now and the prospects of a black President followed by a woman is just too much.

++Sullivan starts off the long essay on Plato's analysis of how Democracies fail but he may have been biased since a democracy executed his mentor Socrates. Sullivan writes that Obama was the bright point of our democracy as opportunities got expanded for all types to seek the presidency. But the flip side of that is a populism emerging from the whites who eschewed the elites and were conditioned to accept a "strong leader". 

++Sullivan has absolutely no respect for Hillary Clinton as he has made obvious through his journalistic career. He points to her tone-deafness to millenials and what he sees is her corruption. He believes Trump has the ammo to go against her. 

++Sullivan gets Trump's World Wrestling techniques and his appearances on the Howard Stern Show as appearing to be a "regular guy". His "You're Fired!" resonates because the white working class know their bosses are too cowardly ever to act that way. 

++He brings up his old bete noire Sarah Palin as an example of the bad populism that the Obama phenomenon unleashed and the story how she told Todd she was going to Costco when she really went to see the then-Mrs Trump to "participate in the glamour" she brought to Alaska. It is this that draws people to Trump, watching his plane appear before a rally. 

++Sullivan admits wavering between disbelief and dread about a Trump victory. I do too. 

++Read the article. I don't know whether the long format benefits Sullivan the way it used to.

++For data nerds,Sam Wang writes a long piece at Princeton Election Consortium about how accurate head-to-head polls are--Pretty accurate starting at February before a Presidential election. He has Hillary at 93% probability of winning and Trump at 7%. He warns you that summer polls tend to be less accurate as witnessed by the 2012 elections. Then they get right on the mark. His piece goes back in term and finds the Reagan 1980 election the outlier that conservatives all embrace but hasn't happen again.

++Happy Tom Friedman predicts that a terrorist attack would mean a Trump victory. Oh,myyy, as George Taki would say. 

++Josh Marshall analyzes Trumponomics. Trump believes with interest rates so low,instead of concentrating on deficits and the debt it's time we should build some infrastructure, which is just the thing the white working class want. Infrastructure pending is now at a 30-year low. 

Goodby,Rubio Tuesday.

++Sam Wang posted his SuperTuesday analysis from Hong Kong. He was serious about getting out of town. Wang says all tope three Republicans over performed and Trump is still on track to win the nomination. He along withy Nate Silver scoff at the idea of a brokered convention in Cleveland.

++The GOP billionaires have given Rubio until the Florida primary to get his act together or …they will draft Mitt Romney.

++The Koch Brothers announced they would not be putting money into a Stop Trump campaign.

++Ed Kilgore has written two pieces for New York magazine that says it's Rubio who is splitting the GOP party. He pointed to Rubio's #NoTrump campaign and his delusional sense that his Minnesota victory was a vindication of calling Trump a "con"artist. We just have to wait,I guess. Kilgore points out that all GOP candidates had to sign a pledge to support the nominee. Right now, Rubio is the one violating the pledge.

++I know you have been waiting. Willard "Mitt" Romney will address the 2016 GOP primary race tomorrow in Utah and is expected to attack Donald Trump.

++Rupert Murdoch is now saying that Trump is the unity candidate. Not that he likes it.

Still There

++Louisiana to go to runoff.

++Mike Rounds wins in South Dakota. Alright,what happens when he is indicted? Since the FBI confirmed during the campaign he was under criminal investigation. Sorry, Rick Weiland didn't make it.

++Scott Brown could run next time in Maine where he really was born.

++So far,no real surprises. But the Warner race in Virginia is giving people the heebie-jeebies.

++Sam Wang says the New Hampshire and Kentucky races didn't help him on his Delta rating. 

++Mark Udall is polling less than Hickenlooper is.

++Maine governor's race still tight.

Sam Wang Still Hangs Tough

++Maybe when he feeds the 100+ polls today into his computer, he will change his mind but Sam is at 49-51 still. I remember his ho-hum after Obama blew the first debate. 

++Nate Silver is still amazed there are competitive Senate races. Harry Etten, his colleague, writes at FiveThirtyEight.com why Alaska drives them nuts and why neither guy will bet on it. He sees the polls basically favoring Sullivan but Begich's outreach has been amazing, even in statistical terms.

++I have to say that I have been most disappointed in two Democrats--Bruce Baley of Iowa and Mark Udall of Colorado. Udall's campaign centered on social issues when he has far many more strengths. On Baley's campaign, all you needed to read was the Des Moines Register endorsement of him. Half of which was spent listing what he has done--maybe because He hasn't made the case for himself.

++The surprise of this election has been the collapse of Republicans Land in Michigan and Dr.Wehby in Oregon. Unfortunately, Martha Coakley has not disappointed with her campaign in Massachusetts.

++I still like Rick Weiland's attitude. 

++Great news from Alaska,all the native languages have been recognized by law. 

Does Early Voting Tell Us Anything About Turnout

++Early voting in Iowa and North Carolina show the Democrats taking the early leads as is custom. But the turnout in the country overall should be down because it is a mid-term, but that doesn't mean it will be in highly contested states.

++For instance,the Mark Halperin interview I referred to in the post on Alaska highlighted the high turn out expected by minorities in Georgia, especially in southern Georgia and Atlanta with its suburbs. The African-American vote has grown sizably since 2010. While we saw Michelle Obama campaigning there as well as Bill Clinton, radio broadcasts to the minority community are being done by President Obama. The issue of whether the 50,000 newly registered voters will be allowed to vote is still up in the air. In Louisiana , democratic operatives are buoyant about the turnout in the areas south of New Orleans as well as the southern part of the state. Whether this turns out , we'll see.

++Colorado's all-mail ballots produce voting rates in the 70+% and may rival a presidential turnout because of the ease of voting.

++In states like North Carolina, where Voter ID laws are being enforced,the Moral Monday campaign has energized the younger and minority voters in a way usually meant for presidential elections.

++If the turnout is more than 2010 and slightly less than 2012,then the GOTV campaigns have been a success.

++Maybe it's just Friday night but Sam Wang has his Meta-Margin at R.1%. which means this one could be close.

Two Weeks To Go

++ A new Monmouth University poll taken in Kansas has Orman and Roberts both at 46%,3% will vote for someone else. 5% are undecided. The Republican National Committee has unleashed bucks to save Roberts seat and they may do it. However,Democratic candidate for governor Davis has a 50 to 45 lead over Sam Brownback.

++A PPP poll has Kay Hagan still grinding it out with a 46 to 43 lead over Tom Tillis.

++Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium has the Democrats and independent at 48 Senators and the GOP at 52. Strangely enough that seems to be the consensus findings among the punditry.

++Meanwhile Rick Weiland's campaign in South Dakota is drawing a lot of support and his GOP rival has attracted the national Republican attention as Rounds is hiring professional Get Out the Vote people. Weiland is benefiting from the DailyKos campaign aimed at attracting the native American vote on the reservations.

Wang Fed Up With Nate Silver

++The last week has seen an unsavory tweeter war between Nate Silver and Sam Wang. Wang taunts that his academic work is peer-reviewed not tweeted against.

++ Today Wang puts the Democrats back up to 50-50 with a meta-margin back to D +0.5%. The election day probability of the Democrats holding the Senate is now back to 67% from yesterday's 51%.

++Nate Silver warns that pollster's are saying that this year's polling is worse than the past.

++Another election watcher is saying that 5% change their mind in the polling booth and favor the incumbent because people are afraid of change--whoever he or she is.

++Huffington Post after the avalanche of state polls yesterday see the Senate breaking to the GOP but barely. Today they have it 52 to 48 but that Iowa and Colorado could go either way. Apparently Mark Udall is finally coming off some good poll days.

More Gratuitous Polls

++Sam Wang at Princeton still hands tough. His probability for election day is that Democrats have 56% chance of retaining the Senate. Nate Silver says Wang is out of touch with the world. The meta-margin is now R +0.8%.

++Survey USA has Charlie Crist at 46 to Rick Scott at 40. Crist has taken the lead in the last polls and seems to have momentum.

++Maine's Portland Press Herald has Michaud 41%,LePage at 39 and Cutler at 14. Michelle Obama is supposed to be in Maine to campaign for Michaud.

++We are a month out. Be sure to Vote!

Wacky Wednesday

++Julia Pierson, the head of the Secret Service,resigned today after the revelations of strange and potentially lethal breeches in the President's security. 

++It is tough to grade the security lapses on which is worse. The White House fence-jumper got as far as the children's bedrooms because the ushers had muted the alarms. While visiting CDC and their work on Ebola in Atlanta,a man with a criminal record got into an elevator with the president while carrying a gun. 

++Thom Hartmann remembering another President who suffered security lapses urged for the declassification of the remaining files on the JFK assassination. A simple reason was that the secret service had been following at least two plots against JFK only a month before he was gunned down.

++Colorado congressman Doug Langborn said he has been talking to a number of generals urging them to resign in protest of President Obama's military plans. For the people who remember the JFK assassination,this should not surprise anyone.

++Sam Wang finished his recalibrations saying that now is appropriate to only concentrate on election day probabilities. He has the Democrats and Independents at 49 and the GOP at 51. The meta-margin is Republicans at +.7%.

++The Daily Kos has the probability of a Democratic Senate at 48%.

++The Suffolk Poll has Greg Orman at 46 and Senator Roberts at 41 with 11% undecided. A Panel of judges ruled today that the Democrats do not have to put a Democrat on the ballot. This was the last ditch effort by Kris Kobach.

++Most aggregators have Mitch McConnell with the probability of wining re-election in the late 80s and early 90s. But The Mellman Group has Alison Grimes at 42 and McConnell at 40.

++Survey USA shows that Charlie Crist finally spending money is paying off. Crist leads Governor Scott 46 to 40.  Nate Silver considers Survey USA the best pollster in Florida.

++Governor Walker takes his largest lead yet or maybe not. The Marquette University Wisconsin poll has Walker beating Burke in Likely Voters 50 to 45, and in registered voters 46 to 45.

++But Burke leads Walker in the Gravis poll, which shows her winning 50-45.

++And the final poll of the day is a shocker where 50% approve of something Obama has done. The Washington Post/ABC poll shows 50% to 44% approve of President Obama handling of ISIS. 70% approve of the Syrian airstrikes and 53% for his sending training troops to Iraq. 

++90% of the GOP support the airstrikes
++60% of the GOP support sending troops to Iraq.
++But only 30% support President Obama's strategy.

Monday Blues

++President Obama came out yesterday to say the Democrats will win the Senate.

++Sam Wang is recalculating. He still has Republicans at 51 seats and a rising meta-margin. The other aggregators like Nate Silver and the New York Times have the GOP now overwhelming odds.

++Sam and others point to the burst of Ernest in Iowa,Cotton in Arkansas,Gardner in Colorado, and Sullivan staring to lead in Alaska. 

++Landrieu in Louisiana and Hagan in North Carolina have slim leads.

++The Supreme Court by a 5 to 4 put a hold on the Circuit ruling ruling blocking Ohio's restriction on early voting. Blocking Sunday and early voting in Ohio favors the Republicans and pointedly restricts the Africa-American vote.

++The controversy over the intruder into the White House reveals he got further inside the White House than previously reported. In the Post article on the story,there was one ominous line. President Obama has experienced three times more threats than any of his predecessors.

++President Obama seems to have surfaced in recent days with sharp the detailed speeches. His speech before the Congressional Black Caucus was a rousing defense of his own administration and promises to do more. His appearance on 60 Minutes was a cool, sober assessment of the Middle East.

++This afternoon Turkish tanks moved toward the border of Syria to prevent ISIS' advance. In Baghdad, ISIS came close to the outskirts of town and reported conducted two massacres of Iraqi military personnel. Private reports indicate that the Iraqi military are lying about their progress and Shiite militias are killing young Sunni men. 

Sam Wang Moves

++Sam Wang moves. Senate conditions now are at GOP at 51 and Democrats and Independent at 49. The meta-margin for the Republicans is +0.1%

The Odd Election

++Presidential approval ratings are said to be normative in predicting mid-term elections. But we have entered the zone of disapproval ratings. 72% of Americans disapprove of Republicans in Congress, according to a Washington Post poll. 54% of Americans disapprove of President Obama and 61% disapprove of congressional Democrats.

++Sam Wang this morning confirms his prediction of a 50-50 Senate with basically the same fundamentals as last week. He notes that other outfits are drifting into his direction because polls are now determining their predictions. On the House side, Wang predicts the GOP will gain from 3-9 seats.

++As we move toward the elections,remember we will probably not know who is in control of the Senate until January. On the night of the election itself, we have a very late call on Alaska. Louisiana is looking like a run-off and Georgia may be too. If Georgia heads to a run-off, we are looking at January for the final judgment on who controls the Senate.

++The DailyKos Poll Explorer is claiming that Kansas didn't change their raising the Democrats odds on holding the Senate. Rather Kay Hagan,Mary Landrieu and Braley in Iowa are showing resilience with the latest polls. Begich in Alaska is now back at over 50% odds of keeping his seat. The one candidate that seems fading is Pryor in Arkansas.