Yesterday's speech by Hosni Mubarak was as confusing as the translator was confused. The speech was expected to announce his resignation from the presidency. Virtually every network on planet Earth had multiple sources close to Mubarak which promised he would step aside. Earlier in the day the Egyptian Military Council met for only its third time--the two previous meetings during the wars with Israel--and issued Communique number 1, which promised the demonstrators that all their demands would be met. Shortly before his speech, the ruling NDP party issued a statement that the President would step aside. In fact, he sought of did delegating all the authority of the President to his Vice President Suleiman. But something happened or Mubarak, an old man, simply changed his mind.
Earlier this morning EST, the military issued Communique number 2, which ended the state of emergency, which had existed for the past 30 years. In Mubarak's speech, he had noted that he forwarded six changes to the Egyptian Constitution to the Parliament for ratification. Throughout the past week, more and more concessions to the pro-democracy demonstrators leaked out to the media. Yesterday, the trade unions in Egypt went on a national strike, crippling the economy.
While the Obama administration toughened its language on Egypt throughout the day, there was a rearguard action by Israel, Saudi Arabia and Jordan to save Muburak's bacon. Representatives from all three countries started calling the American Congress to plead Hosni's case. This effort also saw the appearance of the best bit of disinformation I've seen in a long time. The Islam Times printed a story that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia had died while arguing with Obama over the Egyptian situation. A few hours later, the Saudis had to issue a statement that the King was in excellent health, undergoing medical therapy in Morocco. The story only caused more rumors to fly. One might suspect that the rearguard action caused Mubarak to change his mind at the last minute, believing he had regional support.
Last night President Obama issued a lengthy statement on democratic change in Egypt and wanted Mubarak to account for his actions. It was as tough a statement a President can issue without just sending Air Force I to Cairo to whisk him away to exile. But the administration had been publicly embarrassed by Mubarak's change of mind. Earlier in the day Leon Panetta told the House Intelligence Committee that the Egyptian president was about to leave only to be disappointed hours later. The fact of the matter was that the intelligence was correct. The Administration had been told quietly that Mubarak would be gone.
Some of our allies in the Middle East had been planting stories about the imminent takeover of Egypt by the Muslim Brotherhood and the rise of a Islamist regime. This morning the Drudge Report tried to whip up outrage that the National Intelligence Chief claimed that the Brotherhood had abandoned violence. What Americans don't remember was that the Muslim Brotherhood had been CIA clients under Nasser because the US was uneasy about Nasser's relationship with the Soviet Union. After that the Brotherhood radicalized with a faction that does exist which advocates armed struggle. However, our support for Mubarak over these years has led to the repression of the democratic opposition in the name of cracking down on Islamists. The big question will be how strong the democratic forces and the civil society organizations are in the days ahead.
We all missed perhaps the turning point in the situation last week. Robert Fisk reports that Mubarak ordered the military to open fire on the demonstrators and to repress them. If you remember the time when the jet fighters flew over the demonstrators, this was supposed to be part of that operation. I imagine the timing of this was about when the goon squads came hunting for demonstrators and journalists. Instead, military officers upon receiving the orders called their families and heard their relatives pleading with them to refuse the orders. Apparently, this was such a widespread response that it was sent back up the chain of command until the operation was called off.
If Mubarak is indeed gone, it will be interesting to find out who really in charge.
Showing posts with label Hosni Mubarak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hosni Mubarak. Show all posts
Friday, February 11, 2011
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
They'll Selling Postcards at the Hanging
Over 2 million have gathered at Cairo's Liberation Square to demand the end of the Mubarak regime. Hosni Mubarak is 82 years old, has been in power for 30 years, and has siphoned off $40 billion for himself and his family. Put a fork in him, he's done.
Whatever is going on in Egypt, it's about the Egyptians and not me or you. But a successful democratic revolution would have the effect of liberating us from the remains of the Cold War structure in the Middle East. This morning King Abdullah of Jordan dismissed his government. The Ben Ali regime in Tunisia has already been toppled by the Jasmine Revolution. There are riots in Morocco against King Hassan and student riots against the regime in Khartoum. Yemen is experiencing demonstrations and protests aimed at toppling the regime. And Syria is looking on the whole scene very warily.
If the Egyptians succeed, expect to see the fire spread across the rest of North Africa and into the Saudi peninsula. Then we will not have to support autocratic regimes anyway in the world. What a relief!
So far the Egyptian protests have been dominated by secular youths, who are stranded in a culture which doesn't provide any opportunity. Only today do we see the Muslim Brotherhood begin to play a role in organizing the demonstrations and that may be more in Alexandria. So far they have played a very cautious game, knowing that they have become the boogey-men in Egyptian politics and throughout the world. From the view of Egyptians themselves, the Muslim Brotherhood is seen as too old, too antiquated and simply not with it. After the run of Islamist movements, maybe the Middle East has settled down for some real democratic change for a while.
The American response may not be as enthusiastic as supporters of the demonstrators may want. But how do you throw an ally under the table gracefully and not encouraged a replay of the Iranian Revolution? So far, the Egyptian military probably the most trusted institution in the country has sent all the right signals, vowing not to use force on the demonstrators and publicly acknowledging the rightness of their demands. There is even some talk about a senior military official taking control temporarily until a democratic transition can be put in place.
The Israelis are having heart attacks. After deliberately alienating their closest ally, Turkey, through some public displays of undiplomatic behavior and then the attack on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, Israel is left with only the 82-year old Egyptian President as their sole remaining friend in the Middle East. This discomfort has been channeled through the various commentaries in the United States. Egyptian opposition figure, Mohammed El Baradei is accused of being a puppet of Iran and then the Muslim Brotherhood. Mike Huckabee appeared yesterday before the Knesset to denounce the Egyptian events. Others like Roger Cohen of the Washington Post,Dick Morris on Fox News and some leading officials of major Jewish organizations have warned of an imminent threat by the Brotherhood. It's simply too late in the game to scare anyone.
The leadership of both our parties are trying to play this straight and encouraging a transition in Egypt. But the Right never disappoints. Red State blamed the demonstrations on ....drumroll... Bill Ayers, who apparently had been in Egypt protesting on behalf of the Gaza flotillas months back. They also blamed the State Department and our trade union movement. Rush Limbaugh and other right-wing talk show hosts claimed that President Obama had supported the demonstrators for the past two years and was plotting a Muslim Brotherhood take-over in Egypt since the time of his Cairo speech. Christwire called on their leader, Sarah Palin, to urge an American invasion of Egypt to present the status quo. Glenn Beck said that this was like Sarajevo--referring to WWI, not the Bosnian conflict. According to his worldview, Russia will make a mad sweep and take over Europe and the Chinese will seize the Persian Gulf to trigger cataclysmic change in the world.
There is no right time for change. It happens when people are no longer afraid of a repressive regime and stand up. I wish them all the luck in the world and hope Egypt becomes a democratic state. The ripple effects of such an event around the region would be a welcomed change from the political stalemates that exist in most Middle East and North African countries. It seems groups like Al Qaeda are left high and dry by these developments. Al Qaeda even complained in Yemen that the demonstrations were a Christian-Shiite conspiracy.
Maybe we'll see King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia hanging from lampposts one of these days. That is one show I want to see.
I've spent the last few days listening to the talking heads and our networks trying to explain what's going on. The only people who seem to make any sense are the people at Al Jazeera, who have soared in their coverage and established themselves as this age's new CNN. To them,I take my hat off. Unfortunately, the American coverage remainded me of a time five years ago when I had an epiphany while listening to NPR that no one in D.C. knew what they were talking about. Apparently, it's still true.
Whatever is going on in Egypt, it's about the Egyptians and not me or you. But a successful democratic revolution would have the effect of liberating us from the remains of the Cold War structure in the Middle East. This morning King Abdullah of Jordan dismissed his government. The Ben Ali regime in Tunisia has already been toppled by the Jasmine Revolution. There are riots in Morocco against King Hassan and student riots against the regime in Khartoum. Yemen is experiencing demonstrations and protests aimed at toppling the regime. And Syria is looking on the whole scene very warily.
If the Egyptians succeed, expect to see the fire spread across the rest of North Africa and into the Saudi peninsula. Then we will not have to support autocratic regimes anyway in the world. What a relief!
So far the Egyptian protests have been dominated by secular youths, who are stranded in a culture which doesn't provide any opportunity. Only today do we see the Muslim Brotherhood begin to play a role in organizing the demonstrations and that may be more in Alexandria. So far they have played a very cautious game, knowing that they have become the boogey-men in Egyptian politics and throughout the world. From the view of Egyptians themselves, the Muslim Brotherhood is seen as too old, too antiquated and simply not with it. After the run of Islamist movements, maybe the Middle East has settled down for some real democratic change for a while.
The American response may not be as enthusiastic as supporters of the demonstrators may want. But how do you throw an ally under the table gracefully and not encouraged a replay of the Iranian Revolution? So far, the Egyptian military probably the most trusted institution in the country has sent all the right signals, vowing not to use force on the demonstrators and publicly acknowledging the rightness of their demands. There is even some talk about a senior military official taking control temporarily until a democratic transition can be put in place.
The Israelis are having heart attacks. After deliberately alienating their closest ally, Turkey, through some public displays of undiplomatic behavior and then the attack on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla, Israel is left with only the 82-year old Egyptian President as their sole remaining friend in the Middle East. This discomfort has been channeled through the various commentaries in the United States. Egyptian opposition figure, Mohammed El Baradei is accused of being a puppet of Iran and then the Muslim Brotherhood. Mike Huckabee appeared yesterday before the Knesset to denounce the Egyptian events. Others like Roger Cohen of the Washington Post,Dick Morris on Fox News and some leading officials of major Jewish organizations have warned of an imminent threat by the Brotherhood. It's simply too late in the game to scare anyone.
The leadership of both our parties are trying to play this straight and encouraging a transition in Egypt. But the Right never disappoints. Red State blamed the demonstrations on ....drumroll... Bill Ayers, who apparently had been in Egypt protesting on behalf of the Gaza flotillas months back. They also blamed the State Department and our trade union movement. Rush Limbaugh and other right-wing talk show hosts claimed that President Obama had supported the demonstrators for the past two years and was plotting a Muslim Brotherhood take-over in Egypt since the time of his Cairo speech. Christwire called on their leader, Sarah Palin, to urge an American invasion of Egypt to present the status quo. Glenn Beck said that this was like Sarajevo--referring to WWI, not the Bosnian conflict. According to his worldview, Russia will make a mad sweep and take over Europe and the Chinese will seize the Persian Gulf to trigger cataclysmic change in the world.
There is no right time for change. It happens when people are no longer afraid of a repressive regime and stand up. I wish them all the luck in the world and hope Egypt becomes a democratic state. The ripple effects of such an event around the region would be a welcomed change from the political stalemates that exist in most Middle East and North African countries. It seems groups like Al Qaeda are left high and dry by these developments. Al Qaeda even complained in Yemen that the demonstrations were a Christian-Shiite conspiracy.
Maybe we'll see King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia hanging from lampposts one of these days. That is one show I want to see.
I've spent the last few days listening to the talking heads and our networks trying to explain what's going on. The only people who seem to make any sense are the people at Al Jazeera, who have soared in their coverage and established themselves as this age's new CNN. To them,I take my hat off. Unfortunately, the American coverage remainded me of a time five years ago when I had an epiphany while listening to NPR that no one in D.C. knew what they were talking about. Apparently, it's still true.
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