Egyptian Review

Yesterday's speech by Hosni Mubarak was as confusing as the translator was confused. The speech was expected to announce his resignation from the presidency. Virtually every network on planet Earth had multiple sources close to Mubarak which promised he would step aside. Earlier in the day the Egyptian Military Council met for only its third time--the two previous meetings during the wars with Israel--and issued Communique number 1, which promised the demonstrators that all their demands would be met. Shortly before his speech, the ruling NDP party issued a statement that the President would step aside. In fact, he sought of did delegating all the authority of the President to his Vice President Suleiman. But something happened or Mubarak, an old man, simply changed his mind.

Earlier this morning EST, the military issued Communique number 2, which ended the state of emergency, which had existed for the past 30 years. In Mubarak's speech, he had noted that he forwarded six changes to the Egyptian Constitution to the Parliament for ratification. Throughout the past week, more and more concessions to the pro-democracy demonstrators leaked out to the media. Yesterday, the trade unions in Egypt went on a national strike, crippling the economy.

While the Obama administration toughened its language on Egypt throughout the day, there was a rearguard action by Israel, Saudi Arabia and Jordan to save Muburak's bacon. Representatives from all three countries started calling the American Congress to plead Hosni's case. This effort also saw the appearance of the best bit of disinformation I've seen in a long time. The Islam Times printed a story that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia had died while arguing with Obama over the Egyptian situation. A few hours later, the Saudis had to issue a statement that the King was in excellent health, undergoing medical therapy in Morocco. The story only caused more rumors to fly. One might suspect that the rearguard action caused Mubarak to change his mind at the last minute, believing he had regional support.

Last night President Obama issued a lengthy statement on democratic change in Egypt and wanted Mubarak to account for his actions. It was as tough a statement a President can issue without just sending Air Force I to Cairo to whisk him away to exile. But the administration had been publicly embarrassed by Mubarak's change of mind. Earlier in the day Leon Panetta told the House Intelligence Committee that the Egyptian president was about to leave only to be disappointed hours later. The fact of the matter was that the intelligence was correct. The Administration had been told quietly that Mubarak would be gone.

Some of our allies in the Middle East had been planting stories about the imminent takeover of Egypt by the Muslim Brotherhood and the rise of a Islamist regime. This morning the Drudge Report tried to whip up outrage that the National Intelligence Chief claimed that the Brotherhood had abandoned violence. What Americans don't remember was that the Muslim Brotherhood had been CIA clients under Nasser because the US was uneasy about Nasser's relationship with the Soviet Union. After that the Brotherhood radicalized with a faction that does exist which advocates armed struggle. However, our support for Mubarak over these years has led to the repression of the democratic opposition in the name of cracking down on Islamists. The big question will be how strong the democratic forces and the civil society organizations are in the days ahead.

We all missed perhaps the turning point in the situation last week. Robert Fisk reports that Mubarak ordered the military to open fire on the demonstrators and to repress them. If you remember the time when the jet fighters flew over the demonstrators, this was supposed to be part of that operation. I imagine the timing of this was about when the goon squads came hunting for demonstrators and journalists. Instead, military officers upon receiving the orders called their families and heard their relatives pleading with them to refuse the orders. Apparently, this was such a widespread response that it was sent back up the chain of command until the operation was called off.

If Mubarak is indeed gone, it will be interesting to find out who really in charge.