++The rain has started here. The Jersey Shore is being evacuated. It looks like this one will be big.
++Meanwhile President Obama has been on the phone with Chris Christie and other Governors in the storm's aim to reassure them he will provide anything they need.
++Meanwhile it looks like the Swing States are being firmed up. John Ralston reports that Neil Newhouse, the pollster for the Romney campaign,is extremely skeptical they can compete in Nevada. More news out of Colorado has made people like Nate Silver to up the probability Obama will also take it.
++The PPP poll in New Hampshire has Obama 49 to 47, which was an increase over their last poll. People now put New Hampshire in Obama's column.
++In Ohio, PPP has Obama at 51 to 47 now, another increase over their last poll. Gravis has Obama 50 to 49 over Romney there. Nice news is PPP showing Sherrod Brown leading with 53 to 42.
++A Consenus is emerging that Virginia with its 12 electoral points are now looking solidly Obama, which I doubted.
++Add the movements in the last few days up and President Obama is looking at 303--some other blogger got to 306. But I'll take 303.
++The two outstanding states which deserve watching are Florida and North Carolina. Nate Silver has Romney winning them with overwhelming odds yet anecdotally from the Early Voting and registrations this ain't necessarily so.
++Tomorrow prepare to be bummed out by the Politico/George Washington Swing State poll, which is supposed to show Romney improving his odds. I don't know. The electoral map is betting smaller by the hour.
Showing posts with label PPP on New Hampshire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PPP on New Hampshire. Show all posts
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Ending the Day
++Now I feel more comfortable. Sam Wang has Obama at 300EV and Romney at 238EV. The meta-margin went up to 2.14. The Flexible % at 90 and the Prediction at 97%. Obama's odds are now 10 to 1.
++The Obama campaign has leaked out its internals on Colorado, which I had been concerned about. They have a five point lead in the polling there.
++PPP has Obama now up by 2 in New Hampshire.
++The Ohio Obama campaign says that early voting continues very much in their favor, that Ohio is really moving their way. This, despite Romney's closing pitch that he really is the Auto Industry candidate and that he really will protect the Jeep jobs from not going to China--since they never were. It's a cool technique--generate the threat,pretend it never was false, then say you are the reason the jobs will be staying. Sort of like the intimidation of the corporate bosses saying they will sure you if you vote for Obama.
++Watch Florida --the Democrats are exceeding their 2008 totals. I had written Florida off this year because of Governor Scott and the nature of the state. Maybe not.
++Andrew Sullivan showed up on television to make the astute comment that it looks like Romney might win the Old Confederacy. I tend to think that way also. It is the Union against the Confederacy. After all the Mormons were for slavery and the South.
++The latest is a claim that Obama watched as the people in Benghazi died. Watch for this to assume conspiracy status soon after Hurricane Sandy disappears.
++The Obama campaign has leaked out its internals on Colorado, which I had been concerned about. They have a five point lead in the polling there.
++PPP has Obama now up by 2 in New Hampshire.
++The Ohio Obama campaign says that early voting continues very much in their favor, that Ohio is really moving their way. This, despite Romney's closing pitch that he really is the Auto Industry candidate and that he really will protect the Jeep jobs from not going to China--since they never were. It's a cool technique--generate the threat,pretend it never was false, then say you are the reason the jobs will be staying. Sort of like the intimidation of the corporate bosses saying they will sure you if you vote for Obama.
++Watch Florida --the Democrats are exceeding their 2008 totals. I had written Florida off this year because of Governor Scott and the nature of the state. Maybe not.
++Andrew Sullivan showed up on television to make the astute comment that it looks like Romney might win the Old Confederacy. I tend to think that way also. It is the Union against the Confederacy. After all the Mormons were for slavery and the South.
++The latest is a claim that Obama watched as the people in Benghazi died. Watch for this to assume conspiracy status soon after Hurricane Sandy disappears.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Sam Wang Puts Obama Up
++Princeton Consortium has Obama at 299 and Romney at 239. The one toss-up state they have on the map is New Hampshire. Obama has 243 safe EVs. and his meta-margin is up now to 1.96. PPP polled New Hampshire and found it Romney 49 to Obama 48.
++CNN has Florida Romney 49 to Obama 48. But look at registered voters--Obama 50 to Romney 43.
++The race looks like the civil war. The South are going heavily for Romney, while the North, Midwest and West are going for President Obama.
++CNN has Florida Romney 49 to Obama 48. But look at registered voters--Obama 50 to Romney 43.
++The race looks like the civil war. The South are going heavily for Romney, while the North, Midwest and West are going for President Obama.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Before the Debates
++Willard is back on the campaign trail. While throughly prepped for the debate, he decided to wing another element about his tax plan by saying he would limit tax deductions to $17,000. Well,great what does that mean? He also took time to seize on Joe Biden's remarks about the middle class to make some remark that may or may not make sense. At this stage, I would not know what Mitt Romney will show up tomorrow night and if his positions are really his or will he change them for the next debate. The bottom line is that his campaign doesn't know what it is doing and the American people don't like him and are satisfied with Obama. The winner of the debate will be whomever you support.
++Meanwhile Gallup has Obama at 50 and Romney at 44.
++PPP on New Hampshire has it 51 Obama and 43.5 Romney.
++Roanoke College has Virginia at 49 Obama to Romney 41.
++Will the debates matter? I doubt it. The number of undecided voters are down to 2% and they must be brain dead.
++Meanwhile Gallup has Obama at 50 and Romney at 44.
++PPP on New Hampshire has it 51 Obama and 43.5 Romney.
++Roanoke College has Virginia at 49 Obama to Romney 41.
++Will the debates matter? I doubt it. The number of undecided voters are down to 2% and they must be brain dead.
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