STATE POLLS

New Mexico: Lucid.
Clinton 39%
Trump  31%
Johnson 22%

Colorado: Lucid
Clinton 44%
Trump  37%

Nevada: Analytics
Clinton 45%
Trump  38%

Nevada (JMC ANALYTICS):
Clinton 45%
Trump  45%
Johnson 4%

STATE POLLS

Colorado: Magellen 

Clinton 40%
Trump  35%
Johnson 12%
Stein      5%

Oregon: Oregon Public Broadcasting

Clinton 43%
Trump  36%
Johnson  7%
Stein      3%

New Jersey: Farleigh Dickinson

Clinton 51%
Trump  40%

Massachusetts. (U Mass.)
Clinton 54%
Trump  28%
Johnson 7%
Stein     3%

Wisconsin : St. Norbert's
Clinton 47%
Trump  36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

REMEMBER PFLOUFFE_--STATE POLLS

++OHIO ( Gravis)
Trump 43%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

++Minnesota (Survey USA)
Clinton 46%
Trump  39%
Johnson 6%
Stein     2%

++Pennsylvania (CNN)
Clinton 45%
Trump  44%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

++Colorado. (CNN)
Trump 42%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 13%
Stein 3%

STATE POLLS

++Colorado: CBS/YOUGOV
Clinton 40%
Trump  39%
Johnson 7%
Stein     2%

++Colorado: GRAVIS (BEWARE!)
Trump  41%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 6%
Stein     6% (Really?)

++Ohio: Gravis (BEWARE!)
Trump 43%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 6%
Stein     1%

++Virginia: CBS/YOUGOV.
Clinton 45%
Trump  37%
Johnson 5%
Stein     2%

++Missouri (CBS/YOUGOV)
Trump  46%
Clinton 37%
Johnson 5%
Stein     2%

++Maine (Portland Press Herald)
Clinton 40%
Romney 37%
Johnson 12%
Stein      3%

++Maine CD1
Clinton 50%
Trump 28%.

++Maine CD2
Trump  48%
Clinton  34%

The Maine votes reflect their choice to split electoral votes. The sharp splits reflect the difference between coastal, urban and college Maine; and backwoods and rural Maine.

STATE POLLS

++New York. (Siena)
Clinton 51%
Trump 30%
Johnson 8%
Stein       3%

++California (Field)
Clinton 50%
Trump  33%
Johnson 5%
Stein       6%

++North Carolina (Elon)
Trump 44%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 6%.

++Nevada (Rasmussen)
Trump 42%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 11%

Zoots Allure

++Tip of the hate to Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium for mentioning Frank Zappa in his blog on election methodology.

++Willard hasn't been seen in a battleground state in a week. An airplane accident cancelled a Colorado appearance and he was last seen in Ohio.

++When you have to call a press conference at 10:26 it must be a seismic event--as the video tapes turned out to be. Romney appeared for his "I am not a Crook" moment and only took three questions and shuffled off the stage. Reporters blasted the appearance,saying he would have to answer more questions later. By this afternoon, he re-appeared on the Neil Cavuto Show to reiterate what he said about 48% of Americans and raised the bizarre issue that Illinois State Senator Barack Obama once said he was in favor of wealth distribution and it was on video. Indeed it is since it was a publicly delivered speech. But something almost 20 years ago doesn't quite equal a long devastating speech behind closed doors to a group of megamillionaires.

++Whole books could be written with the lengthy reactions to Mitt's Netflix. Josh Barro for Bloomberg News said it was the day Romney lost the election. Josh Marshall of TPM said the tapes were "devastating". Keith Olbermann taped a "Special Comment" with him laughing uproariously. 

++A new has tag #Romney Encore captured rolling commentary. Nicholas Kristof tweeted ""Condemn people who don't save enough for a weekend house?"

Another commented on Romney saying he didn't have anything growing up with "He pulled himself up by his boat shoes."  

Michael Moore tweeted,"Mitt Romney's campaign is so dead that Mormons just baptized it." 

Another--"Like watching an ocean liner go over Niagara Falls in slow motion." 

Under Breaking Rumor: Empty Chair to announce for the Presidency saying, "Even I can beat Romney now."

Bill Kristol called his remarks,"Arrogant and stupid." But most commentators didn't remark his his comment suggesting Romney step aside for a Rubio-Ryan ticket.

So where are we today?

++Obama at 67.9% on Intrade.

++UPI--Obama 49-45.
++Reuters/Ipsos 48-43.
++Latest NBC/Wall Street Journal 50 to 45 in likely; 50-44 in registered. 

++In the latest Latino Decisions, Obama 68-Romney 26; among men 61 to 32%; among women 74%-21.

Daily Kos--PPP had their poll out that shows something interesting. Obama leads 49 to 47, but in battleground states he's 50 to 46, with an increase of 1; in Red States 46 to 51 (with an increase of 3), in Blue States 51 to 44 ( a decrease of 5.)

By the States:
Pennsylvania : Muhlenberg just confirms the slew of PA polls--Obama 50 to Romney 41.
Virginia:
PPP--Obama 51 to Romney 46.
Washington Post--52 to Romney 44 (likely) and 50-43 registered.
Michigan: 
MRG poll--Obama 48 to Romney 42.
Massachusetts: 
PPP Obama 57 to Romney 39
Suffolk University: Obama 64 to Romney 31.
Oregon:
Survey USA Obama 50 to Romney 41.

Elizabeth Warren has led in three straight polls over the last two days.
Tammy Baldwin has led in two straight polls over Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin. 
Debbie Stabenow leads in Michigan.

Nate Silver predicts there is a 70% chance the Democrats will retain the Senate, with 51 being his prediction. That dramatically reverses his views of a few weeks ago as the GOP seemed posed to win.

Pollpalooza

++Feel free to observe the drip, drip of the Romney tax story on the various internet sites. This story is not going to go away soon and will not have a happy ending. Donald Trump and Steve Forbes in their own ways have proposed that Romney release his tax returns in return from documents of Obama's on his college career and other items. Steve Forbes was candid in saying that he didn't understand how someone who has been running for President so long could be caught so flat-footed. The problem with their proposal is that it will make Romney look like a birthed and chase away the independent voter who could care less what name Barack Obama went to school under. This theme has gotten new juice for the GOP because libertarian Wayne Allard Root, who claims to have gone to Colombia in the same class as President Obama says no one remembers him there. Root pulled this last election and got nowhere but seems willing to try it again.

++The Romney campaign wants to turn the conversation to their Veep pick. Yesterday Drudge had everyone hopping with the prospect of General Petraeus being tapped by Mitt Romney. In my opinion, that actually would be a game-changer. Petraeus, a former Rhodes Scholar and named one of Time magazine's 100 most important personalities, would force the Obama campaign to rethink its strategy. The choice would actually signal that Romney isn't afraid of having an equal nearby. Almost everyone, including his partners at Bain, say that Romney basically has been surrounded by yes-men his whole career and that many of his mistakes can be contributed to a very rigid CEO model of operation. Petraeus would also have erased the double digit lead by Obama in the field of foreign affairs and national security. The choice also would have given comfort level to the Republican establishment, which quietly is critical of the Romney campaign so far. The problem is that Petraeus has an excellent relationship with President Obama and is a self-proclaimed Rockefeller Republican. But alas, the buzz was killed when General Petraeus issued a statement late in the afternoon he did not want to run for any office in the near future.

++Which boils the field down to safer picks. Conservatives are pleading with Romney to solidify his base by picking Paul Ryan. But the Wisconsin congressman is simply too toxic with his proposals to turn Medicare into a voucher system and cut entitlement programs while increasing defense. Romney has danced close to the Ryan Plan but recently has sought to distance himself from its more outrageous proposals.

++So Nate the Great appeared on the Last Word and pointed out that Rob Portman's Wikipedia entry has been changed over 100 times in the last few days and is now locked, suggesting that Portman is the overwhelming choice. Today conservatives wrote op-ed pieces pleading with the Romney campaign not to pick Portman, who is a Washington insider with very close ties to both Bushes.

++Tim Pawlenty is mired in tax problems of his own,which would only magnify the Romney tax issue. 

++Obviously, the Romney campaign desperately needs Ohio so Portman is very high, if not essential to  his possible election. At 57, he looks and sounds like a reasonable technocrat but would not add any excitement to the campaign. The negative is that he is associated with both Bush Administrations and is almost totally an economics man.

++So let's get to the polls:
Electoral College. Princeton Consortium, which matched Nate Silver in 2008 for accuracy, has 300 safe EVs for Obama, 191 safe for Romney with 47 toss-ups. Without toss-ups, the EC vote is 332 to 206 for President Obama.

TPM today has 323 EC for Obama and 191 for Romney. Virginia is now considered "lean Obama", while Colorado is a "toss-up".

++National polls: Reuters/Ipsos Obama 49 and Romney 42 with Obama being better on both the economy and taxes.
    PPP is Obama 48 to Romney 46.
    ARP on voters over 50: Obama 47, Romney 47. Baby-boomers favored Romney by 7, retirees Obama by 4. Males Romney, women Obama.

State polling:
Cap/Corr/Granis on Virginia  Obama 44 Romney 40. But over 50% want Romney to release his taxes.
Qunnipiac Virginia Obama 49 to Romney 45.

Quinnipiac Colorado : Romney 50 and Obama 45
PPP Colorado:             Obama 49, Romney 43
Rasmussen Colorado: Obama 47, Romney 47

PPP North Carolina:    Obama 49, Romney 46

Quinnipiac Wisconsin: Obama 51, Romney 45
Marquette Wisconsin:  Obama 50, Romney 45

++So little has changed but the campaigns are heating up and Republicans are fighting over who will be allowed to speak at the Convention.