June Primaries

Last night I watched as every network, pundit, Politico, Karl Rove predicted Bill Halter would win the Democratic primary in Arkansas. Virtually everyone in the Beltway predicted it. So there is a lesson here--the pundits don't know anything and they are overpaid to not know anything. It was an early night as Blanche Lincoln won her primary. Either way, it looks like the next Senator from Arkansas will be the extreme-right wing Republican Boozman. Of course, Blanche received a little help with some suspicious closing of stations in her rival's areas of strength.

The sultry Sikh Nikki Haley is on the verge of winning the Republican nominee for Governor of South Carolina. She promises to resign if people really prove she had two affairs. In the state, the shocker for Republicans was that incumbent congressman Bob Inglis looks like he will lose the run-off to an even farther right-winger. The other upset was the impossible victory of Alvin Greene, an unemployed vet, as the Democratic nominee to run against Jim DeMint.

It was not a good night for Mike Huckabee, almost all the candidates he backed lost their primary bids. The good news is that all of them were from the Christian Right. Sarah Palin endorsements have been hailed as important but on closer look that doesn't look like much. She backed Nikki Haley, and the California girls, but her congressional candidates lost. Even the Chicken Lady, Sue Lowden, who was backed by Palin, lost. And Palin's previous support in Idaho boom-a-ranged on the candidate.

As for the great new hot shots picked by the Republican Congressional Committee, all three in Iowa lost and four others have lost in previous primaries. These were the hand-picked candidates of the party, who were given wads of money. They were beaten by people who had served in elected office before and campaigned on local, not national issues.

The new theme of the media is that this is the year of Conservative Women. I guess the anti-incumbent theme was not working out. But to make that work, you have to include Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman as conservatives and not robber barons. Whitman spent an astonishing $70 million of her own money to win the Republican primary in California; Fiorina $7 million of her own. While both went hard-right, it's ironic that both had contributed to the Gore and Boxer campaigns in the past. The only real right-wing high profile winner last night was Susan Angle, the John Bircher woman in Nevada.

In the anti-incumbent fever generated by the media, someone walked back the Gallup polls over the last two decades where over 40% of Americans didn't want their own congressman elected. Comparing the years with return of the incumbent, this blogger found that it was roughly 85% incumbents being re-elected. This person explained that this was logical because our system is a majority system and roughly 40% of Americans always want their incumbent out.

There is nothing in last night's elections that given any clue of some over-arching theme this year. In Nevada, it looks like voters will split their ticket--vote against Rory Reid, and vote for Harry. The Republicans actually nominated someone normal in Brian Sandoval, who beat sex-scandal plagued Gibbons. The great GOP targeting of Harry Reid is looking like it's going up in smoke.

Americans don't seem to care for rank amateurs. Jerry Brown easily won the Democratic nomination for governor in California; and former Governor Terry Branstad won the Republican nod in Iowa. And, Obama as the Black Bogeyman seems only to work in the already Republican south. People seem more interested in local affairs and not the political line du jour. Even the "white supremacists" in Montana didn't pull off the coup in the Republican primaries. Maybe Americans really don't like overtly creepy people.

I was devastated by the loss of Moldovan-Israeli karate expert Orly Taitz, the Queen of the Birthers. It would have made the Secretary of State race in California interesting.

Even Judge Roberts embrace of America by the corporations, for the corporations doesn't seem to be panning out so well. The Supreme Court has knocked out the Arizona Fair Elections law, which would have allowed state funding of elections. The timing would benefit John McCain but no one else. But even still, the heavily corporate funded Republican "hot shots" lost. The wealthy candidates like Whitman, Fiorina and Linda McMahon have won but on their own dime.

So far, I'm still at a traditional view of the 2010 election--usual losses of the president's party according to historical lines--nothing so dramatic.

I keep watching the Texas governor's race. it seems the GOP is taking no chances but trying to facilitate the Green Party getting on the ballot.

The Wonderful Wacky World of Polls

Democrats have criticized Jerry Brown for not campaigning in California because of the massive personal fortunes being pumped into the race by Meg Whitman. In Washington, this week the news was that Whitman and Carly Fiorina have taken huge leads in the Republican primary, but no mention of the general election. Seems Jerry may have been playing this right, let the Republican flame wars continue. Brown leads Whitman 48-36 and Poizner 48-32.

In the inexplicable department, the Club of Growth has backed teabagger candidate Susan Angle in the Republican primary in Nevada. Why would anyone do that, even from an ideological point of view? This woman is several planks short of a full deck. The recent polls have Hapless Harry Reid trailing Chicken Lady Sue Lowden 42-39% and Tarkanian by 42-41 but leading Angle by 42-39%. In the Republican primary, Chicken Lady leads Teabagger lady 30-29%. Reid had been trailing by over ten just a few weeks ago.

Rand Paul monstrous Rasmussen 25 pt lead over Jack Conway apparently was a mirage. In one poll, he leads by 1 and in another by 4. His anti-Civil Rights attitude hurt him among Democrats and Independents but improved his standing with Republicans--the Party of Lincoln.

Nikki Haley, our Punjabi Sikh sex goddess in South Carolina, is not going to "address the issue of her affair until after the election". Flat-footed Mitt Romney today vouched for her upstanding morals. But her supposed lover just released 1,000s of e-mails between the couple.

Richard Blumenthal, after lying about his Vietnam War service, still clocks in with a 56-31 pt. lead over Wrestling Lady Linda McMahon. The defeated Republican Simmons will not campaign or endorse McMahon. But Joltin' Joey Lieberman, who hasn't gotten much press coverage lately, says he would be "open to backing McMahon", signalling he wants some bribe from the Obama White House. However, Lieberman's defeated rival, Ned Lamont looks like he's going to be the Democratic candidate for Governor. Lieberman's name in Connecticut is mud. I wouldn't worry about it if I were Blumenthal.

In another curious development, South Carolina's Senator Jim "Waterloo" de Mint, the mastermind of Rand Paul's victory, has a Democratic rival Vic Rawls. Rawls has never run for a state-wide race before. A nationally recognized poll has DeMint with a 19 point lead but a 43% approval rating. In a local poll, deMint has a slightly lower approval rating but only a 7 pt. lead.

Admiral Sestak has a 43-40 pt. lead over Club of Growth leader Pat Toomey. Sestak has gained 14 pts among independents and a few pts among Republicans. The caterwauling of Karl Rove, Rush Limbaugh and Rep. Issa about Obama committing an impeachable offense by "offering Sestak a job if he withdrew from the Democratic race" is actually about derailing Sestak's momentum and his ability to capitalize on his primary victory. The Toomey candidacy is one of the most important for Republican ideologues.

Progressives are doing cartwheels over Halter's 47-44 lead over Blanche Lincoln but both candidates would lose to the Republican.

In North Carolina, Elaine Marshall has jumped out to a lead over her primary opponent Cal Cummingham. Marshall is now in a statistical tie with the Republican Burr in the general election.

While 70% of Americans are for eliminating Dont' Ask, Don't Tell, the Republicans can not yield on this even though Pentagon officials say it's really time to do away with the policy. It has nothing to do with any military issues. The reason is that the party is to controlled by the Religious Right, who can not tolerate any give on issues pertaining to gays. The House passed a compromise on DADT pending a study at the end of the year and the Senate armed forces committee passed it along party lines. John McCain vows to filibuster the whole defense bill because of the DADT amendment. Always thinking of supporting the troops.

The American Spectator has printed a rumor,which I think is credible. It bolsters my belief that Elena Kagan is really meant to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg. The Spectator claims that Ginsburg will resign within two months to allow Obama to pick another justice with the current Congress. It writes that Ginsburg fears the possible loss of liberal Democrats in the Senate in November, which would restrict Obama's choices. I believe that choice #3 is the liberal since the composition of the Congress will not change until 2012. This would allow the #4 judge by Obama, which would shift the gravity of the court for a long-time, to be someone that would not be a lightening rod because of his or her opinions.