Alright, Nate the Great has the Senate at 51 today, Electorial Vote agrees and DailyKos has it still at 52. But this number would mean Reid,Bennett,Illinois and Feingold and Alaska are lost causes. None of these sources have Conway or McAdams or Sestak in the game. What we are seeing is the low number possible. Electoral Vote still has Dems at 207 to 204 for Republicans in the House. Although the momentum there has been for the Republicans until the last two days.
While headline writers have only 2/3rds of the Obama voters going to vote for the Democrats, the actual CBS polls says something very different. The little paragraph buried is the Independents--which 42% are voting Democrat, 12% Republicans and 38% are still persuadable. The large persuadable independents indicates how hard the GOP is having to make the sale. That this is so large two weeks out means this election is still undecided.
The 2/3rds note would be excellent if that is the likely voter. Remember the strategy is to get a sizable percent of these voters out, not the whole bunch. Polling over the last two weeks indicates that we may have a larger turnout this year than during other mid-terms. And of the Obama Voter 89% approve of his performance. So we're not seeing the great sampede to the Republicans that Washington pundits have been talking about.
Obama's approval rating in Gallup today is 48% and Rasmussen 49%, making the recent media drumbeat for the GOP look awfully suspicious.
Apparently, the Republicans have caught on to the silent but developing GOTV efforts by the Democrats. In Nevada, a Republican front group called "Latinos for Reform" is running ads urging Latinos not to vote at all. The Latino former-Bush official in charge of the group said that it was a protest against Barack Obama and Harry Reid for not pushing immigration reform and that Latinos are going to show they were not going to be taken for granted. The group admitted that Sharron Angle was anti-immigrant. But this is an operation meant to suppress the normally Democratic voter.
National Republican Lawyers group, which is mounting aggressive voter suppression efforts in the black community, are being funded by GOP financial giant and Republican bankroller Dick DeVos,Mr.Amway and the father-in-law of Eric Prince, the CEO of Blackwater. These groups will be mobilized in Illinois and reports are appearing in Texas. Ostensibly to ensure "voter integrity", these are imitations of the people from the "Brooks Brothers" riots in Miami-Dade county during the 2000 election. It's clear Republicans are more worried about Obama surge voters than they had let on.
There is nervous chatter of right-wing websites about Obama's campaigning. Of course, they say he is only going to areas where leftists live and his efforts will be for naught. But it seems they are obsessively concerned about the President out and about the land. Rush Limbaugh is trying to whip up the Cheetos-worshippers by calling Obama "demonic" today.
A race that always intrigued me was Bill White's challenge to Rick Perry in Texas. I read a very detailed article on why Texas won't elect him governor because the revelations of Perry's corruption are not read by many and the true state of the Texas economy has not yet been felt by the average citizens. Polling in Texas has been sporadic but showing Perry would win in a walk. But I also read an analysis of the whole scale of the Democratic Party's effort in the state. It dwarfs the Republican efforts and they have created White headquarters in every district and conducted massive GOTV drives. If you think, as I do, organization matters, this is a race to watch on election night.
Following that up, I read last night the statements by the AFL-CIO on their efforts in Pennsylvania on behalf of Joe Sestak in his race against Pat Toomey. This race was another one pronounced dead a few weeks ago. Sestak had a few point lead over Toomey among union voters but after the AFL-CIO's campaign he has soared to 55%, some 20 plus points over Toomey. This shows up in the polls the last two days which shows Sestak has moved ahead by a point or two.
If Independents can still be persuaded, why won't Republicans in tight races appeal to them. That shows the ideological bind the GOP is in. Any such effort would alienate their increasingly fascist base. Also, I think there is a blind belief that money does indeed buy you anything.
The GOP are paying George Washington University students $50 per day to campaign for Christine O'Donnell in Delaware. In last night's debate, Claremont constitutional scholar Christine O'Donnell challenged Chris Coons to show where in the Constitution there was the separation between church and state. He calmly said,"The First Amendment" and the audience laughed at Christine.
Also providing laughs has been Sharron Angle, who appeared before Latino high School students to explain why she was running the menancing dark-skinned Latino ads against Harry Reid. She explained that she didn't know these people were Latinos but she added that she was concerned about the terrorists who came in the country from Canada. The students laughed at her but the Canadian Ambassador to the United States has demanded an apology. She also told the students they looked Asian. And she waxed nostalgically that people often said she was the first Asian legislator in Nevada. Something veteran reporter John Ralston claims no one has ever said.
In my favorite Senate race, Joe Miller did not show up at the debate last night because the man he handcuffed was the moderator but he did find time to speak to CNN. His added complaint against the reporter was that he followed him into the men's room, something no one can attest to. To me this is more of the Tea Bag fixation on gays--O'Donnell suggesting Mike Castle was gay, Sharron Angle demanding Harry Reid put his "man pants on" and here the suggestion that somehow Miller was fending off some gay move.
Unfortunately for Miller, a former supporter Mrs. Symbol came to the townhall meeting and saw the whole fracas and told reporters that while the journalist was aggressive, he did nothing wrong. She complained that she brought her son to hear Miller on his support on gun rights but Miller turned and ran right over her son, pushing him over. Now she won't support Miller.
It seems two of Miller's security guards were active duty military and when their commanding officer heard about their moonlighting, he was furious and vows to bring action against the men.
My candidate Scott McAdams told reports he has never seen an Alaskan politician escorted by armed guards with Secret Service earpieces. He said that his entourage consists of his son or daughter.
Miller's attempt to avoid discussion about his ethics problems during his days as an attorney for small town has only lead to the press opening the discussion further. Miller has not been able to put this back into the box. His failure at damage control has led to a further decline in his popularity. Remember after he won the primary, he was at 53% and was a lock. Now he is at 34% and is in a three-way tie.
Scott McAdams got the best line of the debate. Asked to say something nice about Lisa Murkowski. She said,"She's less Right than Miller. But then John Birch was less Right than Miller."
Don't feel sorry if Sharron Angle loses. Nevada will have to appoint a new Senator soon when Ensign is forced to resign. And the governor's seat will remain Republican.
Love will find a way. The Love Gov, Governor Sanford of South Carolina is still seeing his Argentine bombshell. This is reported by his former wife. Elliot Spitzer's madam is now running for Governor of New York. Next, we might see Diaper Dave Vitter's New Orleans Madam run.
Recent polls show the California races are tightening but this just may be outlier polls.
Apparently, the Chamber of Commerce is angry at Velvet Revolution, the website which created the Stop the Chamber campaign. The Velvet Revolution has requested the FBI to investigate threats against them by Chamber employees and management.
Advocacy groups are just flooding the FEC, the IRS and the FBI with complaints against the Chamber. A veterans group charged their funding creates a "clear and present danger" to our democracy because of the foriegn component. Karl Rove and Republican apologists are trying to laugh off the charges. But yesterday, it became clear that Saudi businesses owned by the royal family were funding some of the anti-Democrat attacks ads. Naturally, torture man, Marc Thiessen asks in the Washington Post who's funding the Democrat's attack ads. This is going to blow up on conservatives like an exploding cigar.
Check out the website www.immenseconsequences.com for how the military is faring with the suspension of DADT. Secretary of Defense Bill Gates complained that the repeal of DADT would have "immense consequences" for the military. The website lists the type of incidents, etc. one can look forward to--complete with a running clock that started once the Judge ruled DADT unconstitutional. Naturally, total number of incidents so far is "O". Judge Virginia Phillips just didn't buy DOJ's argument for a stay and ruled the appeal to continue.
Showing posts with label Joe Sestak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Sestak. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Monday, October 11, 2010
FAIR GAME
"Rick, I'm shocked, just shocked that gambling is going on here."
Karl Rove is squealing like a stuck pig with the new ads the Democrats are running against the anonymous donors of the Rove/Chamber of Commerce network. Ads linking him to efforts to steal the election are drawing blood and have become woven in the Democratic talking points at every stop.
President Obama is busy on the hustings to stop the Great White Male riot. So far this week, he is drawing paltry crowds of 18,000 with overflow in the parking lots. President Obama has ramped up his charges against the Chamber of Commerce and the threat of foreign money in the election. And it's beginning to work.
The Washington Post and the MSM are expressing concerns about the tone of the President's attacks. I guess he's not being polite enough. Karl Rove says that Obama has an enemy list of Nixon. I find it ironic he said this on Fox News, whose audience probably thinks Richard Nixon was great. As far as I remember, Richard Nixon didn't have any corporations or wealthy people on his enemies' list and was the past master at secret corporate funding.
For full public disclosure, Obama has outsourced his enemies' list. I'm compiling it. And ,yes, Karl, you are on it--more for your role in destroying the Republican Party than any attacks on the present Administration.
The Wall Street Journal tried to come to the defense of corporations by invoking the moral equivalence argument. They point out that Labor Unions are also "internationals" and we don't know how much foreign money they pump into the elections. Unfortunately, for them, unions openly disclose their contributions and they expenditures on elections. Right now, the Chamber and Karl Rove do not. Sorry, Charlie, bad cop, no donut.
Bob Schieffer challenged David Axelrod about whether he had evidence the Chamber was using foreign money. He pushed back by saying, "it's up to the Chamber to reveal where their money is coming from to assure the public." Quite right.
This is all fair game. The Rove/Chamber money nexus represents nearly 60% of all anonymous monies in the race, the rest being used for shadowy conservative front-groups, whom no one even knows their directors.
The American people really don't care how much money is spent on the elections. They want to know where it comes from. And here the Democrats have pushed a hot button and .I think, it will pay off.
The Wall Street Journal whined that the Administration was trying to silence America's corporations. How many billions did American corporations spend to lobby against everything the Administration has been trying to do? Did anyone do anything about that?
The New York Times ran a few editorials on the need for more campiagn disclosure but they are getting a little fussy. They are saying that China is now being used as a scapegoat by the Democrats and worry about the implications of this. The Democrats have quite yet gotten into the "Yellow Peril" territory. I think a more fruitful approach would be to accent theMiddle Eastern banks and oil companies.
The Chamber actually ran an ad posting a Democratic congresswoman's home phone. I think , depending on the results on the election, there should be an effort against sitting Republican congressmen to say,"Rep. Boehner wants to pass tax cuts for the very rich, Call his boss Tom Donoghue. " Then list the President of the Chamber's home phone. This should be the M.O. following the election for the One Nation crowd. Don't even bother calling congress, just the business lobby. Make them regret their foray into covert politics.
The Onion gave me a great idea. They ran a satirical piece that someone from Patton, Boggs, a Washington law firm, was registering as a lobbyist for the American people. The fictitious person said that he thought Americans should have input in the proceedings in Congress. Great idea, I think there should be a group formed to actually register as agents of the American people.
Bill Clinton has been campaigning around the country. I caught his speech on behalf of Jack Conway in Kentucky. While never my favorite, he is a great campaigner and probably has a clearer speech on everyday talking points than even Obama. He drew out the implications of this election for the audience and pointed to the utter nonsense about Republicans being fiscally responsible. He pointed out that from Day 1 of W's administration, Republicans opened the door to massive debt by repealing the Pay-Go rules. As Clinton pointed out, that we wom't have any debt if this had been observed. He even pointed out that his Administration had paid down the national debt by $600 billion during his administration and that we would have been debt-free by 2015--the first time since Andrew Jackson. He also pointed out the utter folly of extending the tax cuts for the wealthy. But he made a better case than Obama. He pointed out that the tax cuts for those earning over 3 million a year would range from $300,000 to 800,000 and add enormous amounts to the debt.
The other major point he made was that America does have the money to make the necessary changes to compete in the world and provide a decent living for everyone. He also pointed out to the students that they have a personal stake in this election because of the changes in the student loan programs, which caps the % you must pay your debt back to your annual salary. So you will be able to pay back your loans no matter what job you take. He also made the point that the low fixed rate loans were only possible because Obama cut out the banks from administering them. The intrusion of the private banks in this business only occurred during the last Administration.
Then Clinton went after Rand Paul and stated the obvious--he has no track record and all his ideas have been tried and been catastrophic failures so why would you vote for him. He urged voters not to be "had", don't be hoodwinked by the anonymous ads. Then he ramped up about the Repubican sponsored ad campaign.
The weekend has been basically positive for the Democrats. Finally, they have hit on points that make thier case--maybe too late-- but at least they are fighting back. They are not willing to be swift-boated and Willy Horton'ed again. For the first time in a while, I feel Democrats are not being defensive but going on the offense.
Republicans are stepping in dog-poop as Nancy Pelosi said. One of their candidates, who is given the term "Contender", the second tier after "Top Gun", was caught playing WWII enactment dressed in a Waffen SS uniform. A millionaire from Ohio, he likes to be a member of the Waffen unit that defended Hitler's bunker and his enactment group is connected to a European white supremacist group that honors Germany during WWII. He had the uncanny knack of playing Waffen SS on a campaign weekend. Nice timing. Nice uniform.
Democratic Governor Manchin is fighting back in spades against Raese's "hick" ads in West Virgina. He calls the Republican out on using Philadelphia actors for portraying West Virginians and says that Raese doesn't respect you. Maybe because he lives in Florida and his wife is registered in Florida and can't vote for him. "Why should we vote for him?" The second aid starts with Governor Manchin's NRA endorsement and shows him shooting a bulls-eye and reverting to a more Blue Dog stance, citing that he sued the Obama's EPA for his enforcement of clean air standards that affect the coal industry.
Observers are saying that Sharron Angle and Diaper Dave Vitter are running the most racist ads on the campaign. But in Nevada, this is backfiring. A poll released over the weekend seemed to back up John Ralston's claim that Harry Reid is walking away with the election. This runs counter to the media narrative.
Roxeanne Conlin in Iowa is running against Grassley, the Republican, and is not considered a competitive candidate, although she is a good one. However, she reports what observers are noticing that early voting in Iowa and the rest of the Midwest indicate large Democratic leads, which is a positive note. We are talking in terms of 2-3 to 1 leads in small states. This runs contrary to the larger East Coast media's stories. This may not help Conlin but it may be decisive in House races.
A Race which one should watch is Pennsylvania's Senate race between Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey. Joe Sestak is painting Toomey as identical to Rick Santorum, the ultra-right social conservative. But the thing to look for here is the stealth GOTV campaign by the Obama people among the black community. I have yet to read anything about how this was done during the 2008 campaign. Barack Obama, fighting the race card then, conducted a massive campaign among the black media and radio stations that never surfaced in the major media. From the rally yesterday in Philadelphia, I got a hint that this was revving up against.
Will the millenials vote? In the 2006 elections, only 25% of them voted, while 51% voted in 2008. Republican strategists have written them off this year, but even if they bump the 25 to 30%, this will make a difference in close elections.
The same is true with Hispanics. The Hispanic vote will become crucial in Nevada, Colorado, California and even in Illinois, where a sizable Hispanic community lives. It looks like anti-immigration positions by Republicans in Colorado, Nevada and California will hurt the GOP.
The Washington Post wrote about Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign in Alaska. The portrait is of a Senate candidate finally freed from constraint and enjoying her campaign. The more Alaskans see Joe Miller they distrust him and fear that the state will lose out on all the federal goodies they received. Alaska is the most subsidized state in terms of Federal aid in the union. Murkowski is openly running on the earmarks she has brought in. The Washington Post has her tied or leading in polls but Mudflats website showed that the write-in process will make it hard for her to win. Receiving no coverage anywhere is the Democratic candidate, who was tied with Murkowski the polls.
One problem race for Democrats looks like the Patty Murray-Dino Rossi contest in Washington state. For reasons that are unknown--Dino Rossi has pulled in the lead. However, Murray is playing hard-hitting ads on Rossi's dubious business practices.
Alex Sink is ramping up her attack ads on Rick Scott for his role in Medicare fraud and his dubious business career. Lamentably she is only a few points in the lead, given the fact her opponent really should be in jail.
Some of the major networks are claiming the Democrats are being McCarthyite in their attacks on the business interests behind the Republicans. I thought the teabaggers liked Joe McCarthy. Certainly Fox News and Sarah Palin do.
For the next few weeks, it's going to be rock'em-sock'em. If the GOP manages to take back the House, don't expect them to have an easy time of it once the secret money theme sticks. I can't imagine Democratic and labor activists are going to stop hitting them when they try to repeal the legislation of the past 18 months.
Remember Vote Early and Often.
Karl Rove is squealing like a stuck pig with the new ads the Democrats are running against the anonymous donors of the Rove/Chamber of Commerce network. Ads linking him to efforts to steal the election are drawing blood and have become woven in the Democratic talking points at every stop.
President Obama is busy on the hustings to stop the Great White Male riot. So far this week, he is drawing paltry crowds of 18,000 with overflow in the parking lots. President Obama has ramped up his charges against the Chamber of Commerce and the threat of foreign money in the election. And it's beginning to work.
The Washington Post and the MSM are expressing concerns about the tone of the President's attacks. I guess he's not being polite enough. Karl Rove says that Obama has an enemy list of Nixon. I find it ironic he said this on Fox News, whose audience probably thinks Richard Nixon was great. As far as I remember, Richard Nixon didn't have any corporations or wealthy people on his enemies' list and was the past master at secret corporate funding.
For full public disclosure, Obama has outsourced his enemies' list. I'm compiling it. And ,yes, Karl, you are on it--more for your role in destroying the Republican Party than any attacks on the present Administration.
The Wall Street Journal tried to come to the defense of corporations by invoking the moral equivalence argument. They point out that Labor Unions are also "internationals" and we don't know how much foreign money they pump into the elections. Unfortunately, for them, unions openly disclose their contributions and they expenditures on elections. Right now, the Chamber and Karl Rove do not. Sorry, Charlie, bad cop, no donut.
Bob Schieffer challenged David Axelrod about whether he had evidence the Chamber was using foreign money. He pushed back by saying, "it's up to the Chamber to reveal where their money is coming from to assure the public." Quite right.
This is all fair game. The Rove/Chamber money nexus represents nearly 60% of all anonymous monies in the race, the rest being used for shadowy conservative front-groups, whom no one even knows their directors.
The American people really don't care how much money is spent on the elections. They want to know where it comes from. And here the Democrats have pushed a hot button and .I think, it will pay off.
The Wall Street Journal whined that the Administration was trying to silence America's corporations. How many billions did American corporations spend to lobby against everything the Administration has been trying to do? Did anyone do anything about that?
The New York Times ran a few editorials on the need for more campiagn disclosure but they are getting a little fussy. They are saying that China is now being used as a scapegoat by the Democrats and worry about the implications of this. The Democrats have quite yet gotten into the "Yellow Peril" territory. I think a more fruitful approach would be to accent theMiddle Eastern banks and oil companies.
The Chamber actually ran an ad posting a Democratic congresswoman's home phone. I think , depending on the results on the election, there should be an effort against sitting Republican congressmen to say,"Rep. Boehner wants to pass tax cuts for the very rich, Call his boss Tom Donoghue. " Then list the President of the Chamber's home phone. This should be the M.O. following the election for the One Nation crowd. Don't even bother calling congress, just the business lobby. Make them regret their foray into covert politics.
The Onion gave me a great idea. They ran a satirical piece that someone from Patton, Boggs, a Washington law firm, was registering as a lobbyist for the American people. The fictitious person said that he thought Americans should have input in the proceedings in Congress. Great idea, I think there should be a group formed to actually register as agents of the American people.
Bill Clinton has been campaigning around the country. I caught his speech on behalf of Jack Conway in Kentucky. While never my favorite, he is a great campaigner and probably has a clearer speech on everyday talking points than even Obama. He drew out the implications of this election for the audience and pointed to the utter nonsense about Republicans being fiscally responsible. He pointed out that from Day 1 of W's administration, Republicans opened the door to massive debt by repealing the Pay-Go rules. As Clinton pointed out, that we wom't have any debt if this had been observed. He even pointed out that his Administration had paid down the national debt by $600 billion during his administration and that we would have been debt-free by 2015--the first time since Andrew Jackson. He also pointed out the utter folly of extending the tax cuts for the wealthy. But he made a better case than Obama. He pointed out that the tax cuts for those earning over 3 million a year would range from $300,000 to 800,000 and add enormous amounts to the debt.
The other major point he made was that America does have the money to make the necessary changes to compete in the world and provide a decent living for everyone. He also pointed out to the students that they have a personal stake in this election because of the changes in the student loan programs, which caps the % you must pay your debt back to your annual salary. So you will be able to pay back your loans no matter what job you take. He also made the point that the low fixed rate loans were only possible because Obama cut out the banks from administering them. The intrusion of the private banks in this business only occurred during the last Administration.
Then Clinton went after Rand Paul and stated the obvious--he has no track record and all his ideas have been tried and been catastrophic failures so why would you vote for him. He urged voters not to be "had", don't be hoodwinked by the anonymous ads. Then he ramped up about the Repubican sponsored ad campaign.
The weekend has been basically positive for the Democrats. Finally, they have hit on points that make thier case--maybe too late-- but at least they are fighting back. They are not willing to be swift-boated and Willy Horton'ed again. For the first time in a while, I feel Democrats are not being defensive but going on the offense.
Republicans are stepping in dog-poop as Nancy Pelosi said. One of their candidates, who is given the term "Contender", the second tier after "Top Gun", was caught playing WWII enactment dressed in a Waffen SS uniform. A millionaire from Ohio, he likes to be a member of the Waffen unit that defended Hitler's bunker and his enactment group is connected to a European white supremacist group that honors Germany during WWII. He had the uncanny knack of playing Waffen SS on a campaign weekend. Nice timing. Nice uniform.
Democratic Governor Manchin is fighting back in spades against Raese's "hick" ads in West Virgina. He calls the Republican out on using Philadelphia actors for portraying West Virginians and says that Raese doesn't respect you. Maybe because he lives in Florida and his wife is registered in Florida and can't vote for him. "Why should we vote for him?" The second aid starts with Governor Manchin's NRA endorsement and shows him shooting a bulls-eye and reverting to a more Blue Dog stance, citing that he sued the Obama's EPA for his enforcement of clean air standards that affect the coal industry.
Observers are saying that Sharron Angle and Diaper Dave Vitter are running the most racist ads on the campaign. But in Nevada, this is backfiring. A poll released over the weekend seemed to back up John Ralston's claim that Harry Reid is walking away with the election. This runs counter to the media narrative.
Roxeanne Conlin in Iowa is running against Grassley, the Republican, and is not considered a competitive candidate, although she is a good one. However, she reports what observers are noticing that early voting in Iowa and the rest of the Midwest indicate large Democratic leads, which is a positive note. We are talking in terms of 2-3 to 1 leads in small states. This runs contrary to the larger East Coast media's stories. This may not help Conlin but it may be decisive in House races.
A Race which one should watch is Pennsylvania's Senate race between Joe Sestak and Pat Toomey. Joe Sestak is painting Toomey as identical to Rick Santorum, the ultra-right social conservative. But the thing to look for here is the stealth GOTV campaign by the Obama people among the black community. I have yet to read anything about how this was done during the 2008 campaign. Barack Obama, fighting the race card then, conducted a massive campaign among the black media and radio stations that never surfaced in the major media. From the rally yesterday in Philadelphia, I got a hint that this was revving up against.
Will the millenials vote? In the 2006 elections, only 25% of them voted, while 51% voted in 2008. Republican strategists have written them off this year, but even if they bump the 25 to 30%, this will make a difference in close elections.
The same is true with Hispanics. The Hispanic vote will become crucial in Nevada, Colorado, California and even in Illinois, where a sizable Hispanic community lives. It looks like anti-immigration positions by Republicans in Colorado, Nevada and California will hurt the GOP.
The Washington Post wrote about Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign in Alaska. The portrait is of a Senate candidate finally freed from constraint and enjoying her campaign. The more Alaskans see Joe Miller they distrust him and fear that the state will lose out on all the federal goodies they received. Alaska is the most subsidized state in terms of Federal aid in the union. Murkowski is openly running on the earmarks she has brought in. The Washington Post has her tied or leading in polls but Mudflats website showed that the write-in process will make it hard for her to win. Receiving no coverage anywhere is the Democratic candidate, who was tied with Murkowski the polls.
One problem race for Democrats looks like the Patty Murray-Dino Rossi contest in Washington state. For reasons that are unknown--Dino Rossi has pulled in the lead. However, Murray is playing hard-hitting ads on Rossi's dubious business practices.
Alex Sink is ramping up her attack ads on Rick Scott for his role in Medicare fraud and his dubious business career. Lamentably she is only a few points in the lead, given the fact her opponent really should be in jail.
Some of the major networks are claiming the Democrats are being McCarthyite in their attacks on the business interests behind the Republicans. I thought the teabaggers liked Joe McCarthy. Certainly Fox News and Sarah Palin do.
For the next few weeks, it's going to be rock'em-sock'em. If the GOP manages to take back the House, don't expect them to have an easy time of it once the secret money theme sticks. I can't imagine Democratic and labor activists are going to stop hitting them when they try to repeal the legislation of the past 18 months.
Remember Vote Early and Often.
Friday, May 28, 2010
The Wonderful Wacky World of Polls
Democrats have criticized Jerry Brown for not campaigning in California because of the massive personal fortunes being pumped into the race by Meg Whitman. In Washington, this week the news was that Whitman and Carly Fiorina have taken huge leads in the Republican primary, but no mention of the general election. Seems Jerry may have been playing this right, let the Republican flame wars continue. Brown leads Whitman 48-36 and Poizner 48-32.
In the inexplicable department, the Club of Growth has backed teabagger candidate Susan Angle in the Republican primary in Nevada. Why would anyone do that, even from an ideological point of view? This woman is several planks short of a full deck. The recent polls have Hapless Harry Reid trailing Chicken Lady Sue Lowden 42-39% and Tarkanian by 42-41 but leading Angle by 42-39%. In the Republican primary, Chicken Lady leads Teabagger lady 30-29%. Reid had been trailing by over ten just a few weeks ago.
Rand Paul monstrous Rasmussen 25 pt lead over Jack Conway apparently was a mirage. In one poll, he leads by 1 and in another by 4. His anti-Civil Rights attitude hurt him among Democrats and Independents but improved his standing with Republicans--the Party of Lincoln.
Nikki Haley, our Punjabi Sikh sex goddess in South Carolina, is not going to "address the issue of her affair until after the election". Flat-footed Mitt Romney today vouched for her upstanding morals. But her supposed lover just released 1,000s of e-mails between the couple.
Richard Blumenthal, after lying about his Vietnam War service, still clocks in with a 56-31 pt. lead over Wrestling Lady Linda McMahon. The defeated Republican Simmons will not campaign or endorse McMahon. But Joltin' Joey Lieberman, who hasn't gotten much press coverage lately, says he would be "open to backing McMahon", signalling he wants some bribe from the Obama White House. However, Lieberman's defeated rival, Ned Lamont looks like he's going to be the Democratic candidate for Governor. Lieberman's name in Connecticut is mud. I wouldn't worry about it if I were Blumenthal.
In another curious development, South Carolina's Senator Jim "Waterloo" de Mint, the mastermind of Rand Paul's victory, has a Democratic rival Vic Rawls. Rawls has never run for a state-wide race before. A nationally recognized poll has DeMint with a 19 point lead but a 43% approval rating. In a local poll, deMint has a slightly lower approval rating but only a 7 pt. lead.
Admiral Sestak has a 43-40 pt. lead over Club of Growth leader Pat Toomey. Sestak has gained 14 pts among independents and a few pts among Republicans. The caterwauling of Karl Rove, Rush Limbaugh and Rep. Issa about Obama committing an impeachable offense by "offering Sestak a job if he withdrew from the Democratic race" is actually about derailing Sestak's momentum and his ability to capitalize on his primary victory. The Toomey candidacy is one of the most important for Republican ideologues.
Progressives are doing cartwheels over Halter's 47-44 lead over Blanche Lincoln but both candidates would lose to the Republican.
In North Carolina, Elaine Marshall has jumped out to a lead over her primary opponent Cal Cummingham. Marshall is now in a statistical tie with the Republican Burr in the general election.
While 70% of Americans are for eliminating Dont' Ask, Don't Tell, the Republicans can not yield on this even though Pentagon officials say it's really time to do away with the policy. It has nothing to do with any military issues. The reason is that the party is to controlled by the Religious Right, who can not tolerate any give on issues pertaining to gays. The House passed a compromise on DADT pending a study at the end of the year and the Senate armed forces committee passed it along party lines. John McCain vows to filibuster the whole defense bill because of the DADT amendment. Always thinking of supporting the troops.
The American Spectator has printed a rumor,which I think is credible. It bolsters my belief that Elena Kagan is really meant to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg. The Spectator claims that Ginsburg will resign within two months to allow Obama to pick another justice with the current Congress. It writes that Ginsburg fears the possible loss of liberal Democrats in the Senate in November, which would restrict Obama's choices. I believe that choice #3 is the liberal since the composition of the Congress will not change until 2012. This would allow the #4 judge by Obama, which would shift the gravity of the court for a long-time, to be someone that would not be a lightening rod because of his or her opinions.
In the inexplicable department, the Club of Growth has backed teabagger candidate Susan Angle in the Republican primary in Nevada. Why would anyone do that, even from an ideological point of view? This woman is several planks short of a full deck. The recent polls have Hapless Harry Reid trailing Chicken Lady Sue Lowden 42-39% and Tarkanian by 42-41 but leading Angle by 42-39%. In the Republican primary, Chicken Lady leads Teabagger lady 30-29%. Reid had been trailing by over ten just a few weeks ago.
Rand Paul monstrous Rasmussen 25 pt lead over Jack Conway apparently was a mirage. In one poll, he leads by 1 and in another by 4. His anti-Civil Rights attitude hurt him among Democrats and Independents but improved his standing with Republicans--the Party of Lincoln.
Nikki Haley, our Punjabi Sikh sex goddess in South Carolina, is not going to "address the issue of her affair until after the election". Flat-footed Mitt Romney today vouched for her upstanding morals. But her supposed lover just released 1,000s of e-mails between the couple.
Richard Blumenthal, after lying about his Vietnam War service, still clocks in with a 56-31 pt. lead over Wrestling Lady Linda McMahon. The defeated Republican Simmons will not campaign or endorse McMahon. But Joltin' Joey Lieberman, who hasn't gotten much press coverage lately, says he would be "open to backing McMahon", signalling he wants some bribe from the Obama White House. However, Lieberman's defeated rival, Ned Lamont looks like he's going to be the Democratic candidate for Governor. Lieberman's name in Connecticut is mud. I wouldn't worry about it if I were Blumenthal.
In another curious development, South Carolina's Senator Jim "Waterloo" de Mint, the mastermind of Rand Paul's victory, has a Democratic rival Vic Rawls. Rawls has never run for a state-wide race before. A nationally recognized poll has DeMint with a 19 point lead but a 43% approval rating. In a local poll, deMint has a slightly lower approval rating but only a 7 pt. lead.
Admiral Sestak has a 43-40 pt. lead over Club of Growth leader Pat Toomey. Sestak has gained 14 pts among independents and a few pts among Republicans. The caterwauling of Karl Rove, Rush Limbaugh and Rep. Issa about Obama committing an impeachable offense by "offering Sestak a job if he withdrew from the Democratic race" is actually about derailing Sestak's momentum and his ability to capitalize on his primary victory. The Toomey candidacy is one of the most important for Republican ideologues.
Progressives are doing cartwheels over Halter's 47-44 lead over Blanche Lincoln but both candidates would lose to the Republican.
In North Carolina, Elaine Marshall has jumped out to a lead over her primary opponent Cal Cummingham. Marshall is now in a statistical tie with the Republican Burr in the general election.
While 70% of Americans are for eliminating Dont' Ask, Don't Tell, the Republicans can not yield on this even though Pentagon officials say it's really time to do away with the policy. It has nothing to do with any military issues. The reason is that the party is to controlled by the Religious Right, who can not tolerate any give on issues pertaining to gays. The House passed a compromise on DADT pending a study at the end of the year and the Senate armed forces committee passed it along party lines. John McCain vows to filibuster the whole defense bill because of the DADT amendment. Always thinking of supporting the troops.
The American Spectator has printed a rumor,which I think is credible. It bolsters my belief that Elena Kagan is really meant to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg. The Spectator claims that Ginsburg will resign within two months to allow Obama to pick another justice with the current Congress. It writes that Ginsburg fears the possible loss of liberal Democrats in the Senate in November, which would restrict Obama's choices. I believe that choice #3 is the liberal since the composition of the Congress will not change until 2012. This would allow the #4 judge by Obama, which would shift the gravity of the court for a long-time, to be someone that would not be a lightening rod because of his or her opinions.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Thursday Coffee--New Guinea
MID-TERMS. There seems to be a crack in Charles Cook's armor--he is flummoxed by the GOP loss in Pennsylvania's 12th District. This district had been trending toward Republicans for years and if this year was going to be a landslide GOP year that seat was easy pickings.
Former moderate-conservative congressman Tom Davis, who used to run the GOP house elections, agrees and claims that the tsunami will probably look more like tornedoes hitting ground in sporadic areas of the country. Davis had the good observation that the Republican candidate Burns ran against the "Obama-Pelosi agenda", while the Democrat Critz ran on local issues with a good dollop of economic populism. Davis thinks that the GOP's effort to "nationalize" the House elections is a disaster and that if Democrats keeping plugging away district by district on the concerns of consituencies they will minimize their losses this year.
While Obama had an approval rating of about 30% in the district, Bush and Cheney had only 24% saying they did a good job. The Republican brand still suffers a hangover from those years, even in a district that is almost all white, middle-class. Overall, Republicans still only have an approval rating of 32%, which raises doubts whether voters see them as viable alternatives.
Republicans did have a higher intensity for the primaries. Their turnout was 48% and Democrats 44%. The difference is that 2008 was a record year for Democratic registrations so the universe of Democrats is far larger than that of Republicans.
How bad was it for Republicans? We heard the dulcet tones of Ann Coulter eviscerating Tan Man Boehner, who she calls Boner, and the Republican Party for speaking only to conservatives on Fox News and bragging about how awesome their victories are going to be when they have over-promised and can't deliver. "If we gain 30 seats now, it will look like a loss." She's right. She also blasted the party for backing Linda McMahon, the owner of the World Wrestling Federation, for Senate in Connecticut, "one of the wealthiest and best educated states in the union." She favors Yale-educated Simmons, who had served in the CIA and had been a real Colonel in Vietnam. No tea-party for Ann as she launched her vitriol at the Republicans for a change saying they were a bunch of incompetent boobs.
Patrician George Will claimed Tuesday elections were as good as it gets for Democrats. He claimed that Critz won because he distanced himself from Obama and endorsed an anti-abortion position. The latter is true, the former is false. George Will has discovered three "trophy races', which Democrats will lose. Guess which coveted seats they are? Well, of course, Joe Biden's former seat in the Senate from Delaware, Barack Obama's Senate seat in Illinois, and Harry Reid's seat in Nevada. He then went on to mock those who criticize Rand Paul because he says that Paul's position are now mainstream. The proof of this is the blurb on Rand Paul's book to abolish the Fed-- by none other than Arlo Guthrie. This proves Rand Paul's popularity.
Rand Paul got himself into immediate hot water by implying that he did not think the Civil Rights Bill should have included private businesses. He was immediately blasted by Democrats, while the Republicans had no comment. Personally, I do not believe he is racist. He is a libertarian ideologue who can not envision any other threat to freedom except from the state. His lovable father, however, is a racist and did vote against the Civil Rights bill.
The President of the Tea Party Express, the former Nixon dirty trickster Mark Williams said that "Islam is a 7th Century Death Cult coughed up by a psychotic pedophile." Pretty vivid.
Family Values Vin Fossella has received the endorsement of the Staten Island GOP for his bid to return to Congress. Vin loves families so much he has two of them--one on Staten island, the other here in Virginia.
Mark Souder said in his resignation speech that he was resigning because he didn't want the publicity of his adultery to overshadow the good work he has devoted his life to in defending family values. He claims these eternal values are more important than him. This argument seems hypocritical to outsiders but to the social conservatives there is nothing odd about it. Love the sinner--sort of--condemn the sin and legislate against others.
Rasmussen has a poll out today that shows Admiral Joe Sestak leading Pat Toomey 46 to 42.
The bottom-line on Tuesday's primaries is that the Senate races in Kentucky and Pennsylvania are tied and in Arkansas the Republicans have the lead. In Oregon basically voters chose all incumbents for their legislature and a former Governor as the Democratic nominee to return. Republicans chose former Portland Trailblazer Chris Dudley, who is tall.
Glenn Beck has created an independent website that tries to smear Congressman Weiner. Did Beck killed that girl in the 1990s? Just wondering. Pass it on.
The GOPosaurs filibustered the Finance Reform Bill yesterday. Scott Brown went back on his word to Harry Reid. Otherwise we would have had a vote. So far the GOP has killed a cap on ATM fees, with Senators admitting they don't use ATMs; caps on predatory lending on payday loans; caps on credit card rates; and they have stalled the amendment on derivative trading. Russ Feingold joined the Republicans in voting against closure because he felt the bill was not strong enough.
Most outsiders believe the bill has gotten stronger by the day but progressives are disappointed in the lack of provisions to prevent To Big To Fail and its lack of strict regulations of derivative trading. The Roosevelt Institute criticized people like me saying let's not make the perfect the enemy of the good, saying that Democrats filibustered FDR's first financial reform bill until the FDIC was created. Good point.
Hapless Harry will try again today for cloture because the legislative calender is getting tight.
Former moderate-conservative congressman Tom Davis, who used to run the GOP house elections, agrees and claims that the tsunami will probably look more like tornedoes hitting ground in sporadic areas of the country. Davis had the good observation that the Republican candidate Burns ran against the "Obama-Pelosi agenda", while the Democrat Critz ran on local issues with a good dollop of economic populism. Davis thinks that the GOP's effort to "nationalize" the House elections is a disaster and that if Democrats keeping plugging away district by district on the concerns of consituencies they will minimize their losses this year.
While Obama had an approval rating of about 30% in the district, Bush and Cheney had only 24% saying they did a good job. The Republican brand still suffers a hangover from those years, even in a district that is almost all white, middle-class. Overall, Republicans still only have an approval rating of 32%, which raises doubts whether voters see them as viable alternatives.
Republicans did have a higher intensity for the primaries. Their turnout was 48% and Democrats 44%. The difference is that 2008 was a record year for Democratic registrations so the universe of Democrats is far larger than that of Republicans.
How bad was it for Republicans? We heard the dulcet tones of Ann Coulter eviscerating Tan Man Boehner, who she calls Boner, and the Republican Party for speaking only to conservatives on Fox News and bragging about how awesome their victories are going to be when they have over-promised and can't deliver. "If we gain 30 seats now, it will look like a loss." She's right. She also blasted the party for backing Linda McMahon, the owner of the World Wrestling Federation, for Senate in Connecticut, "one of the wealthiest and best educated states in the union." She favors Yale-educated Simmons, who had served in the CIA and had been a real Colonel in Vietnam. No tea-party for Ann as she launched her vitriol at the Republicans for a change saying they were a bunch of incompetent boobs.
Patrician George Will claimed Tuesday elections were as good as it gets for Democrats. He claimed that Critz won because he distanced himself from Obama and endorsed an anti-abortion position. The latter is true, the former is false. George Will has discovered three "trophy races', which Democrats will lose. Guess which coveted seats they are? Well, of course, Joe Biden's former seat in the Senate from Delaware, Barack Obama's Senate seat in Illinois, and Harry Reid's seat in Nevada. He then went on to mock those who criticize Rand Paul because he says that Paul's position are now mainstream. The proof of this is the blurb on Rand Paul's book to abolish the Fed-- by none other than Arlo Guthrie. This proves Rand Paul's popularity.
Rand Paul got himself into immediate hot water by implying that he did not think the Civil Rights Bill should have included private businesses. He was immediately blasted by Democrats, while the Republicans had no comment. Personally, I do not believe he is racist. He is a libertarian ideologue who can not envision any other threat to freedom except from the state. His lovable father, however, is a racist and did vote against the Civil Rights bill.
The President of the Tea Party Express, the former Nixon dirty trickster Mark Williams said that "Islam is a 7th Century Death Cult coughed up by a psychotic pedophile." Pretty vivid.
Family Values Vin Fossella has received the endorsement of the Staten Island GOP for his bid to return to Congress. Vin loves families so much he has two of them--one on Staten island, the other here in Virginia.
Mark Souder said in his resignation speech that he was resigning because he didn't want the publicity of his adultery to overshadow the good work he has devoted his life to in defending family values. He claims these eternal values are more important than him. This argument seems hypocritical to outsiders but to the social conservatives there is nothing odd about it. Love the sinner--sort of--condemn the sin and legislate against others.
Rasmussen has a poll out today that shows Admiral Joe Sestak leading Pat Toomey 46 to 42.
The bottom-line on Tuesday's primaries is that the Senate races in Kentucky and Pennsylvania are tied and in Arkansas the Republicans have the lead. In Oregon basically voters chose all incumbents for their legislature and a former Governor as the Democratic nominee to return. Republicans chose former Portland Trailblazer Chris Dudley, who is tall.
Glenn Beck has created an independent website that tries to smear Congressman Weiner. Did Beck killed that girl in the 1990s? Just wondering. Pass it on.
The GOPosaurs filibustered the Finance Reform Bill yesterday. Scott Brown went back on his word to Harry Reid. Otherwise we would have had a vote. So far the GOP has killed a cap on ATM fees, with Senators admitting they don't use ATMs; caps on predatory lending on payday loans; caps on credit card rates; and they have stalled the amendment on derivative trading. Russ Feingold joined the Republicans in voting against closure because he felt the bill was not strong enough.
Most outsiders believe the bill has gotten stronger by the day but progressives are disappointed in the lack of provisions to prevent To Big To Fail and its lack of strict regulations of derivative trading. The Roosevelt Institute criticized people like me saying let's not make the perfect the enemy of the good, saying that Democrats filibustered FDR's first financial reform bill until the FDIC was created. Good point.
Hapless Harry will try again today for cloture because the legislative calender is getting tight.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
The Known Knowns*
courtesy of America's last great public philsopher, Donald Rumsfeld.
If you watched the primary elections on television, you didn't learn much. Certainly nothing to help you understand the 2010 mid-terms. And if you consulted Drudge or Huffington Post, which is becoming Drudge-like by the day, you still didn't learn much.
O.K., if you are older than 72 and are an incumbent, your seat is probably in danger. Witness Bob Bennett and Arlen Specter. Watch for the McCain primary next. McCain has some of the problems Specter has. Instead of changing political parties, he's changing his known political positions like a weather vane. In short, like Specter, he's not seen as reliable.
And what about the great teabaggers? Yes, they used the caucus system in Utah to oust Bennett, a primary target since the TARP bailout. But, what about Rand Paul's defeat of the establishment candidate Trey Grayson in Kentucky? Here we have a real circumstance where people have to vote in larger numbers. Rand Paul is the son of the libertarian hero Ron Paul, which generated excitement. He was endorsed by James Dobson and Senator DeMint and the race was supposed to be competitive. He was lionized on Fox News. So he should have generated a tidal wave in Kentucky, a virtual tsunami of Republican and conservative voters. Yes, he won handily over Grayson but he received less votes than the first two Democrats. This in a state that voted for John McCain and Barack Obama was prevented by the Secret Service from campaigning in because of the severity of the death threats.
The conclusion is that Jack Conway, the Democrat, has a real chance to pick up a Senate seat in Kentucky. Some project his possible margin of victory at 100,000. Rand Paul's victory might be analogous to some of the libertarian gains in New Hampshire during the 1990s. The big loser here was Mitch McConnell, who backed Grayson. So far McConnell is batting zero in his endorsements.
Voter Intensity. One way to project the 2010 mid-terms is the intensity of the voter interest. Every poll and pundit tells us that Republicans have vastly more intensity this time around than Democrats. One way to test this is to compare turnouts in a state where both parties have competitive primaries. Here we had Kentucky. The Democratic turnout for a primary was twice that of the Republicans, whose race drew more national and state attention. Not great news for Republicans.
The Only Race That Mattered. For Republicans, the seat held for 36-years by Jack Murtha was the symbolic equivalent of Ted Kennedy's Senate seat. Murtha was intensely hated by Republicans for his gift at securing earmarks, his opposition to the Iraq War, and his corruption. The RNC recruited a strong candidate in Tim Burns and contributed more than $1 million to his campaign. This district had gone for Kerry in 04 and then for McCain in 08. Obama's approval rating is 30% and the majority of the district opposes healthcare. The table was set. Tim Burns led in every poll throughout the camapign. The Republicans were going to announce this seat as a symbol that they were taking back the House.
The end result--Murtha's old chief of staff, Mark Critz beat Burns by over 8 points. This makes Republicans 0 for 4 in special House elections since Obama's election. In House special elections, they have lost ten straight. Pundits believe they will pick up a Hawaii seat because the Democrats are divided.
In Pennsylvania, the victory of Joe Sestak over Arlen Specter increases the chances of Democrats holding that Senate seat. Specter, who once had been a Democrat in 1966, was going to lose his primary to Pat Toomey before he switched parties. To his credit, Specter cast pivotal votes for the stimulus package and healthcare reform and funding for mental illness. He had earned the support of Gov. Rendell, President Obama and the DNC. But he lost because Joe Sestak was obviously more dynamic and people in Pennsylvania concluded Specter had become a Democrat for opportunistic reasons. However, the Democratic Party has already prepared anti-Toomey ads to start airing this week. The victory of Joe Sestak did something else--it energized the progressives for the 2010 elections.
In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln may outlast Halter but she's forced into a run-off now because of Halter's support from progressives and the unions. In a way, this is a challenge to the DLC, whose candidate she was and is. Again, Democratic voter turnout far exceeded the Republicans, who also had a competitive primary.
Teabaggers Versus Progressives. From this small sample,one can conclude a progressive victory actually strenghens the Democrats electability--even in Arkansas, but the teabagger victory in Kentucky actually weakens the Republican chances. And what fun it will be for Kentucky voters to learn Rand Paul is against the war in Afghanistan and wants to repeal the Patriot Act! In short, he really is a chip off the old block. I also liked how his victory party was at a Golf Club and he refused to take the concession call from Trey Grayson. In Utah, the local papers report that while the teabaggers achieved their goal of dumping Bennett, they failed to nominate their candidate. But who would know since the Utah candidate is beyond right as it is.
Of course,the media is broadcasting that President Obama's endorsement of a candidate isn't useful. Charles Krauthammer is trying to spin the loss of incumbents on voter dissatisfaction with Obama. Good try, Charlie. In the Pennsylvania race, it was illogical to believe that Obama shouldn't support Specter. But, he did not campaign for him, which he could have done since he was in the neighboring state and he didn't cut ads for him. Obama did cut ads for Blanche Lincoln. But at the end of the day, he ends up with two Democrats and even if they push him to the Left this can't be considered a referendum on his Administration or a negative.
Progressive blogs are picking up this theme as well as Republicans. Here they talk about Creigh Deeds failed bid for the governor of Virginia. Here again, Obama even offered to campaign for Deeds in Northern Virginia where Deeds was the weakest but he was turned down. In New Jersey, he did campaign for Corzine (I was there) and cut ads. In the state elections, both states always go in the opposite direction as the President in power. So, Obama was fighting against a traditional voting pattern. Now citizens in Virginia and New Jersey are appalled at what they brought on themselves and are actually motivated for 2010.
So, the Obama effect. The jury is still out. What we are seeing is more a return to Tip O'Neill's maxim that "all politics is local". If that's true, then the Republicans will have a difficult time "nationalizing" the House elections as they did in 1994. What Republicans fear is the Obama surge voters--the young, minorities and women. So far we have had no good examples of whether they will come out in the mid-terms. While Washington pundits speculate everyday on how weak or strong the President is, the bottom-line is he's not running until 2012.
Last night showed that Tan Man Boehner shouldn't measure the drapes just yet. For Democrats the night had to be encouraging. I would be uncomfortable if I were at the RNC.
If you watched the primary elections on television, you didn't learn much. Certainly nothing to help you understand the 2010 mid-terms. And if you consulted Drudge or Huffington Post, which is becoming Drudge-like by the day, you still didn't learn much.
O.K., if you are older than 72 and are an incumbent, your seat is probably in danger. Witness Bob Bennett and Arlen Specter. Watch for the McCain primary next. McCain has some of the problems Specter has. Instead of changing political parties, he's changing his known political positions like a weather vane. In short, like Specter, he's not seen as reliable.
And what about the great teabaggers? Yes, they used the caucus system in Utah to oust Bennett, a primary target since the TARP bailout. But, what about Rand Paul's defeat of the establishment candidate Trey Grayson in Kentucky? Here we have a real circumstance where people have to vote in larger numbers. Rand Paul is the son of the libertarian hero Ron Paul, which generated excitement. He was endorsed by James Dobson and Senator DeMint and the race was supposed to be competitive. He was lionized on Fox News. So he should have generated a tidal wave in Kentucky, a virtual tsunami of Republican and conservative voters. Yes, he won handily over Grayson but he received less votes than the first two Democrats. This in a state that voted for John McCain and Barack Obama was prevented by the Secret Service from campaigning in because of the severity of the death threats.
The conclusion is that Jack Conway, the Democrat, has a real chance to pick up a Senate seat in Kentucky. Some project his possible margin of victory at 100,000. Rand Paul's victory might be analogous to some of the libertarian gains in New Hampshire during the 1990s. The big loser here was Mitch McConnell, who backed Grayson. So far McConnell is batting zero in his endorsements.
Voter Intensity. One way to project the 2010 mid-terms is the intensity of the voter interest. Every poll and pundit tells us that Republicans have vastly more intensity this time around than Democrats. One way to test this is to compare turnouts in a state where both parties have competitive primaries. Here we had Kentucky. The Democratic turnout for a primary was twice that of the Republicans, whose race drew more national and state attention. Not great news for Republicans.
The Only Race That Mattered. For Republicans, the seat held for 36-years by Jack Murtha was the symbolic equivalent of Ted Kennedy's Senate seat. Murtha was intensely hated by Republicans for his gift at securing earmarks, his opposition to the Iraq War, and his corruption. The RNC recruited a strong candidate in Tim Burns and contributed more than $1 million to his campaign. This district had gone for Kerry in 04 and then for McCain in 08. Obama's approval rating is 30% and the majority of the district opposes healthcare. The table was set. Tim Burns led in every poll throughout the camapign. The Republicans were going to announce this seat as a symbol that they were taking back the House.
The end result--Murtha's old chief of staff, Mark Critz beat Burns by over 8 points. This makes Republicans 0 for 4 in special House elections since Obama's election. In House special elections, they have lost ten straight. Pundits believe they will pick up a Hawaii seat because the Democrats are divided.
In Pennsylvania, the victory of Joe Sestak over Arlen Specter increases the chances of Democrats holding that Senate seat. Specter, who once had been a Democrat in 1966, was going to lose his primary to Pat Toomey before he switched parties. To his credit, Specter cast pivotal votes for the stimulus package and healthcare reform and funding for mental illness. He had earned the support of Gov. Rendell, President Obama and the DNC. But he lost because Joe Sestak was obviously more dynamic and people in Pennsylvania concluded Specter had become a Democrat for opportunistic reasons. However, the Democratic Party has already prepared anti-Toomey ads to start airing this week. The victory of Joe Sestak did something else--it energized the progressives for the 2010 elections.
In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln may outlast Halter but she's forced into a run-off now because of Halter's support from progressives and the unions. In a way, this is a challenge to the DLC, whose candidate she was and is. Again, Democratic voter turnout far exceeded the Republicans, who also had a competitive primary.
Teabaggers Versus Progressives. From this small sample,one can conclude a progressive victory actually strenghens the Democrats electability--even in Arkansas, but the teabagger victory in Kentucky actually weakens the Republican chances. And what fun it will be for Kentucky voters to learn Rand Paul is against the war in Afghanistan and wants to repeal the Patriot Act! In short, he really is a chip off the old block. I also liked how his victory party was at a Golf Club and he refused to take the concession call from Trey Grayson. In Utah, the local papers report that while the teabaggers achieved their goal of dumping Bennett, they failed to nominate their candidate. But who would know since the Utah candidate is beyond right as it is.
Of course,the media is broadcasting that President Obama's endorsement of a candidate isn't useful. Charles Krauthammer is trying to spin the loss of incumbents on voter dissatisfaction with Obama. Good try, Charlie. In the Pennsylvania race, it was illogical to believe that Obama shouldn't support Specter. But, he did not campaign for him, which he could have done since he was in the neighboring state and he didn't cut ads for him. Obama did cut ads for Blanche Lincoln. But at the end of the day, he ends up with two Democrats and even if they push him to the Left this can't be considered a referendum on his Administration or a negative.
Progressive blogs are picking up this theme as well as Republicans. Here they talk about Creigh Deeds failed bid for the governor of Virginia. Here again, Obama even offered to campaign for Deeds in Northern Virginia where Deeds was the weakest but he was turned down. In New Jersey, he did campaign for Corzine (I was there) and cut ads. In the state elections, both states always go in the opposite direction as the President in power. So, Obama was fighting against a traditional voting pattern. Now citizens in Virginia and New Jersey are appalled at what they brought on themselves and are actually motivated for 2010.
So, the Obama effect. The jury is still out. What we are seeing is more a return to Tip O'Neill's maxim that "all politics is local". If that's true, then the Republicans will have a difficult time "nationalizing" the House elections as they did in 1994. What Republicans fear is the Obama surge voters--the young, minorities and women. So far we have had no good examples of whether they will come out in the mid-terms. While Washington pundits speculate everyday on how weak or strong the President is, the bottom-line is he's not running until 2012.
Last night showed that Tan Man Boehner shouldn't measure the drapes just yet. For Democrats the night had to be encouraging. I would be uncomfortable if I were at the RNC.
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