++It wasn't his Walls Of Jericho speech. He had considerable competition in this convention from great speeches ranging from Michele Obama to the keynoters, Bill Clinton and even Joe Biden. It was an even-keeled speech. The flourishes were really provided by the videos--where he gets his due in prime time when the Romney bio was short-circuited. But did he elevate. By the end the old cadence and rhythm kicked in to build to the conclusion. He finished as the inspiring orator he is.
++He invoked the killer word against his opponent --something that needed to be said--citizenship. His riff on citizenship and mutual obligations made the cries of "We Built This" from the Republican Convention look small. He invoked a larger vision and one that is woven in American history. I hope his message resonates . I don't believe the pundits will get it.
++He went back to his theme of hopes and change and put meat on it. He got in digs at Romney and tied him to the voucher plan. He also invoked the sacrifices of those in the armed forces. And he did something an artful politician does--give credit for all he accomplished to those who voted for him. They got healthcare passed, they got Don't Ask, Don'Tell repealed, they got the auto industry revived. In other words,they Built those things, which are enduring in the political life of the country. He called voters to a higher calling than the bottom line. That's what the change means and what he hopes will resonate.
++It was not a policy wonk tutorial like Bill Clinton's. It was to place all policy within the broader context of our rights and obligations to each other. The end game of policy is to the Public Good.
++I like the soaring Barack Obama. This speech built toward that end. The reason it could not be like the lyrical masterpieces of the past is because he had to detour through his accomplishments and his plans for the future.
++In terms of policy content, It far outstripped Mitt Romney's almost neanderthal policy prescriptions at the end of his speech. But the reason for it was that Obama's vision is broader and more encompassing.
++Will this give him the mojo he needs. The next few days will tell. Pundits are already writing that he asks for patience to finish what he started to do. The idea is that somehow this is all linked to the economy--which is only part of it. I believe the pundits will not get the gist of the speech and that a fuss will be made about this or that point. If you saw it unadorned by commentators talking about what the President had to do,what he had to accomplish, what he had to say to quell his critics, then you saw the man Joe Biden described without the clutter--the man of courage and conviction. He made it quite clear what the choice in this election means.
++He wanted this election to be about a choice and not a referendum on himself I think this speech makes it so. He got the fight he wanted.
++One last thing. I always told democratic activists abroad always to ask someone for their vote, not just as a courtesy but because that was a critical moment in the transaction of democracy. President Obama didn't hesitate to ask for the audience's vote. I don't remember whether Romney even bothered.
++The other aspect is that President Obama knows more scriptural references than either of the Republicans do and also how they can be used in a public space.
++the Bruce Springsteen "We take care of our own" was a nice touch.
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Here Goes My Hero
++I'll wait until after the Convention to try and sum up my impressions of this, a political Home Run Derby.But the messaging couldn't be tighter and every speaker reinforcing the broader message of we all in this together. I don't know how you get a more diverse crowd of Americans. I even saw a dwarf.
++For me the real kick of a convention is a Roll-Call where states brag about their history, products, sights and sports teams. The roll call for the RNC was held in early morning to hide the possible fights with the followers of Ron Paul. At the DNC the Maine delegation remarked how proud they were of being seated unlike their Republican counterparts (snark).
I thought it was a nice, if not fabricated, touch for Mississippi to cede to the Ohio delegation,who put Obama over the top.
++Tonight, the last night of the convention, saw David Grohl and the Foo-Fighters play two songs. Perhaps I am the only one who thought that choice was important. David Grohl is an Alexandria man, who is well-loved in northern Virginia and who wrote Arlandria about Alexandria and Arlington on his last album. Perhaps, I am taking this too far but I think I have detected micro-targeting for swing states in a subtle way throughout the three days of the convention. Last night we saw the young owner of an Alexandria brewery talk about the help he got from the Small Business Administration. If you add up these mentions and personalities, you have a layered approach to marketing to swing states.
++It has been clear that the auto bailout pitch has been more toward Ohio than Michigan. The Ohio autoworkers, the Toledo workers being retrained , Sharrod Brown, Ted Strickland, add up to a big push in Ohio. This also is where Obama's best ground game is. After Bill Clinton's barn-burner of a speech, he and President Obama will be campaigning together in Ohio and Florida.
++A part of the campaign we miss is the coverage by the regional press. For instance, it is more important to the election that the Des Moines Register fact-checked Clinton's speech and found it truthful than the AP quibbling over his past performance in the White House. Clinton's speech received front-page headlines in all swing state papers.
++The nice bit about Clinton's speech was the shot of Hillary watching it in East Timor and saying as he went long "Time to wrap it up."
++The Romney campaign has been woefully flat-footed in trying to respond to the DNC and I think they are letting themselves in for a breakout they can recover from. The DNC has run a vastly superior convention than the RNC and are playing offense in a way I haven't seen Democrats play for years.
++There is something that puzzles me. I know the Republicans animosity toward Jimmy Carter and they feel that this is like a 1980 election for them. But attacking an 88-year old man whom most people now consider someone who served his post-presidential years honorably and for humanitarian causes just doesn't go over well to the general electorate.
++The same applies to Bill Clinton. Romney tried to coopt Bill Clinton's critique of Barack Obama with new attack ads from the 2008 campaign. However, Clinton's speech which was a full-throated and well-argued embrace of President Obama drowns all this out. Then there are those conservative pundits that go after Bill Clinton for his past indiscretions in office at a time when Clinton has favorables in the high 60s and unfavorables about 27%. What's the grand strategy here when Clinton outdrew the NFL opener and the tweeter feed during his speech was 22,087 to Romney's 14,289.
++Republicans are critical that I think Romney is throwing the fight. The campaign has pulled its ad spending, including the SuperPacs, Karl Rove and the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity, from both Pennsylvania and Michigan. There are no ads in Ohio at this moment. And the Romney campaign is not spending anything on Wisconsin when they have the darlings of Wisconsin Rinse Penis as RNC Chairman,Scott Walker as Governor and Paul Ryan as Vice Presidential nominee. Ad buys must be made up front. The Obama campaign has already lined up all the October purchases. It seems to me that Romney is narrowing his own possibilities by shutting down operations in this key states so soon. His Michigan decision is one month ahead of McCain doing it in 2008.
++Hopefully Friday's job report will put the wind at Obama's back. Nasdaq is at its highest since 2000. Unemployment claims are at its lowest in 4 years. The stock market is the highest in four years. And Pew did a poll on how Americans feel about where they are now economically. Oh, about the same. It's not worse. The ADP report surprised analysts today showing job creation over 200,000. While federal reports usually are lower because they also show job losses in the public sector, there is anticipation that the report will be decent but no lowering of the unemployment rate.
++For me the real kick of a convention is a Roll-Call where states brag about their history, products, sights and sports teams. The roll call for the RNC was held in early morning to hide the possible fights with the followers of Ron Paul. At the DNC the Maine delegation remarked how proud they were of being seated unlike their Republican counterparts (snark).
I thought it was a nice, if not fabricated, touch for Mississippi to cede to the Ohio delegation,who put Obama over the top.
++Tonight, the last night of the convention, saw David Grohl and the Foo-Fighters play two songs. Perhaps I am the only one who thought that choice was important. David Grohl is an Alexandria man, who is well-loved in northern Virginia and who wrote Arlandria about Alexandria and Arlington on his last album. Perhaps, I am taking this too far but I think I have detected micro-targeting for swing states in a subtle way throughout the three days of the convention. Last night we saw the young owner of an Alexandria brewery talk about the help he got from the Small Business Administration. If you add up these mentions and personalities, you have a layered approach to marketing to swing states.
++It has been clear that the auto bailout pitch has been more toward Ohio than Michigan. The Ohio autoworkers, the Toledo workers being retrained , Sharrod Brown, Ted Strickland, add up to a big push in Ohio. This also is where Obama's best ground game is. After Bill Clinton's barn-burner of a speech, he and President Obama will be campaigning together in Ohio and Florida.
++A part of the campaign we miss is the coverage by the regional press. For instance, it is more important to the election that the Des Moines Register fact-checked Clinton's speech and found it truthful than the AP quibbling over his past performance in the White House. Clinton's speech received front-page headlines in all swing state papers.
++The nice bit about Clinton's speech was the shot of Hillary watching it in East Timor and saying as he went long "Time to wrap it up."
++The Romney campaign has been woefully flat-footed in trying to respond to the DNC and I think they are letting themselves in for a breakout they can recover from. The DNC has run a vastly superior convention than the RNC and are playing offense in a way I haven't seen Democrats play for years.
++There is something that puzzles me. I know the Republicans animosity toward Jimmy Carter and they feel that this is like a 1980 election for them. But attacking an 88-year old man whom most people now consider someone who served his post-presidential years honorably and for humanitarian causes just doesn't go over well to the general electorate.
++The same applies to Bill Clinton. Romney tried to coopt Bill Clinton's critique of Barack Obama with new attack ads from the 2008 campaign. However, Clinton's speech which was a full-throated and well-argued embrace of President Obama drowns all this out. Then there are those conservative pundits that go after Bill Clinton for his past indiscretions in office at a time when Clinton has favorables in the high 60s and unfavorables about 27%. What's the grand strategy here when Clinton outdrew the NFL opener and the tweeter feed during his speech was 22,087 to Romney's 14,289.
++Republicans are critical that I think Romney is throwing the fight. The campaign has pulled its ad spending, including the SuperPacs, Karl Rove and the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity, from both Pennsylvania and Michigan. There are no ads in Ohio at this moment. And the Romney campaign is not spending anything on Wisconsin when they have the darlings of Wisconsin Rinse Penis as RNC Chairman,Scott Walker as Governor and Paul Ryan as Vice Presidential nominee. Ad buys must be made up front. The Obama campaign has already lined up all the October purchases. It seems to me that Romney is narrowing his own possibilities by shutting down operations in this key states so soon. His Michigan decision is one month ahead of McCain doing it in 2008.
++Hopefully Friday's job report will put the wind at Obama's back. Nasdaq is at its highest since 2000. Unemployment claims are at its lowest in 4 years. The stock market is the highest in four years. And Pew did a poll on how Americans feel about where they are now economically. Oh, about the same. It's not worse. The ADP report surprised analysts today showing job creation over 200,000. While federal reports usually are lower because they also show job losses in the public sector, there is anticipation that the report will be decent but no lowering of the unemployment rate.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Before Charlotte
++Ohio's former Governor Strickland ripped the bark off Romney tonight at the DNC Convention in Charlotte. Partisan bloggers love it. People like Andrew Sullivan thought he came across too angry and nasty. "If Romney were Santa Claus he would fire the elfs and outsource the reindeer" (or something like that.) Also Ted Kennedy beat Mitt Romney in a video debate from the old days. But still a crowd-pleaser.
++Ohio's Secretary of State refuses to observe the federal judge ruling to keep the early voting laws. I wonder why?
++The Obama campaign did something unlike them--they released an internal poll showing Obama has a 9 point lead in Ohio. Since apparently they and I know Romney absolutely can not win without Ohio,it is psychological warfare on the highest order. Steve Singiser feels the actual lead is about 5 points. But few people realize Obama has been campaigning there for the last six years and his ground forces there are the best he has.
++The bounce may have gone. Sam Wang actually did find a negative bounce and added 10 more electoral points to Obama. Gallup found none. CNN found two. Nate sort of found 2. Steve Singiser found 2.
++We are now in polling La-La land . CNN/ORC has Obama 52 to 45 among registered voters and 48-48 among likely voters. A few weeks down the road we can figure out what's what.
++Latin Decisions had another poll that showed Obama having a 64 to 30 lead over Romney. Here Romney picked up 4 since their last poll. But is still below the 35% McCain got.
++Leaders of the Latino Elected and Appointed officials expect that there will be a 26% increase in Latino turnout this election over 2008.
++The National Journal claims that President Obama needs to win 80% of the minority vote to win.
++Ohio's Secretary of State refuses to observe the federal judge ruling to keep the early voting laws. I wonder why?
++The Obama campaign did something unlike them--they released an internal poll showing Obama has a 9 point lead in Ohio. Since apparently they and I know Romney absolutely can not win without Ohio,it is psychological warfare on the highest order. Steve Singiser feels the actual lead is about 5 points. But few people realize Obama has been campaigning there for the last six years and his ground forces there are the best he has.
++The bounce may have gone. Sam Wang actually did find a negative bounce and added 10 more electoral points to Obama. Gallup found none. CNN found two. Nate sort of found 2. Steve Singiser found 2.
++We are now in polling La-La land . CNN/ORC has Obama 52 to 45 among registered voters and 48-48 among likely voters. A few weeks down the road we can figure out what's what.
++Latin Decisions had another poll that showed Obama having a 64 to 30 lead over Romney. Here Romney picked up 4 since their last poll. But is still below the 35% McCain got.
++Leaders of the Latino Elected and Appointed officials expect that there will be a 26% increase in Latino turnout this election over 2008.
++The National Journal claims that President Obama needs to win 80% of the minority vote to win.
Monday, September 3, 2012
To Bounce or Not To Bounce--That is the Question
++Nate Silver is saying "meh", maybe 1-2 point bounce. Sam Wang has caught a whiff of a negative bounce. But he promises more tomorrow. Steve Singisier at Daily Kos says it looks now at 2 points. Tom Holbrook of Pollster had predicted a 3.6 pt bounce for Romney and a 1.1 for Obama. Apparently challengers get a better bounce. So will call it 2 and let the geeks find out after the election.
++PPP has found Obama still leads Michigan 51 to 44.
++PPP has Obama at 49 to 46 in Colorado. They remark this is the tightest of the last four polls, all of which showed Obama in the lead.
++Are you better off than four years ago? 54% of Americans say yes.
++According to Gallup, only 38% found Romney's speech good or excellent.
++PPP has found Obama still leads Michigan 51 to 44.
++PPP has Obama at 49 to 46 in Colorado. They remark this is the tightest of the last four polls, all of which showed Obama in the lead.
++Are you better off than four years ago? 54% of Americans say yes.
++According to Gallup, only 38% found Romney's speech good or excellent.
Barns for Obama
++I always like the painted barns for Obama in rural America. The Obama campaign's "Barns for Obama" video is a nice break from the slash and burn ads we see all the time. The video is targeted to Ohio's rural population. At the end, the video lists the achievements of the Obama Administration for the agricultural community, the numbers of farm loans approved and the expansion of the internet in rural America. When I wrote about the stimulus package, I highlighted the commitment to high-speed internet for rural communities. I likened it to FDR's Rural Administration which brought electricity to non-urban America. The Republicans tried to knock it out at least twice but it survived. Have a look.
++I have received mountains of trash talking e-mails from Republicans reviving old accusations about Obama, Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod, and proclaiming the auto bailout a failure because unions weren't busted. A little stunned by the flop of the RNC, the new attackers are claiming that the Obama campaign has trouble getting attendance at the Charlotte Convention and are busing people in. The RNC is setting up a counter strategy for the Convention. The New Right gang are going to have rallies with empty chairs--like the Romney campaign needs to be reminded of their great howler. Paul Ryan is making the rounds claiming that Barack Obama is a worse president than Jimmy Carter. The insistence on the Carter analogy that started at the beginning of Obama's campaign continues to gall. As I written often this is another age and it is apples to oranges. Ryan doesn't get--or maybe he does--that he is playing the Race Card, a pretty empty one in the 21st Century.
++There may or may not be a bounce. Nate Silver is flummoxed. He thinks he found one of 2-3 points for Romney. Sam Wang promised us today a bounce but he doesn't seem to find any. But he does say to check in tomorrow.
++Gallup says the response to the RNC was the worse since they have been polling and that Romney's speech was a dud.
++A Hackers website claims that President Obama scored heavy during the RNC by his use of the social media.
++Betty White, an Obama supporter, said that "I may be off my rocker. But I don't talk to it."
++As of today, which should be Romney's high point,if Obama lost Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia, he would still win.The Romney people are acting like they are throwing in the towel on Ohio. You can't have your surrogate Ohio's own Rob Portman say,"We can win without Ohio but it would be easier with it." No you can not win without Ohio.
++Everybody is talking about what Obama must say or not say or what Republican talking point he must refute. I'm glad they don't work on the Obama campaign. He is building up to his speech slowly by surely. He campaigned today in Ohio speaking before autoworkers. If you missed it, he spoke before massive crowds in Iowa and Colorado. These crowds bring back the aura of 2008. Crowds as far as the eye can see.
++Bain employees will talk at the DNC so they might say something different than the owner of Staples, who fears "lactation chambers."
++I have received mountains of trash talking e-mails from Republicans reviving old accusations about Obama, Valerie Jarrett and David Axelrod, and proclaiming the auto bailout a failure because unions weren't busted. A little stunned by the flop of the RNC, the new attackers are claiming that the Obama campaign has trouble getting attendance at the Charlotte Convention and are busing people in. The RNC is setting up a counter strategy for the Convention. The New Right gang are going to have rallies with empty chairs--like the Romney campaign needs to be reminded of their great howler. Paul Ryan is making the rounds claiming that Barack Obama is a worse president than Jimmy Carter. The insistence on the Carter analogy that started at the beginning of Obama's campaign continues to gall. As I written often this is another age and it is apples to oranges. Ryan doesn't get--or maybe he does--that he is playing the Race Card, a pretty empty one in the 21st Century.
++There may or may not be a bounce. Nate Silver is flummoxed. He thinks he found one of 2-3 points for Romney. Sam Wang promised us today a bounce but he doesn't seem to find any. But he does say to check in tomorrow.
++Gallup says the response to the RNC was the worse since they have been polling and that Romney's speech was a dud.
++A Hackers website claims that President Obama scored heavy during the RNC by his use of the social media.
++Betty White, an Obama supporter, said that "I may be off my rocker. But I don't talk to it."
++As of today, which should be Romney's high point,if Obama lost Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Virginia, he would still win.The Romney people are acting like they are throwing in the towel on Ohio. You can't have your surrogate Ohio's own Rob Portman say,"We can win without Ohio but it would be easier with it." No you can not win without Ohio.
++Everybody is talking about what Obama must say or not say or what Republican talking point he must refute. I'm glad they don't work on the Obama campaign. He is building up to his speech slowly by surely. He campaigned today in Ohio speaking before autoworkers. If you missed it, he spoke before massive crowds in Iowa and Colorado. These crowds bring back the aura of 2008. Crowds as far as the eye can see.
++Bain employees will talk at the DNC so they might say something different than the owner of Staples, who fears "lactation chambers."
Sunday, September 2, 2012
Fooling with Numbers
++Sam Wang may be telling us to ignore the polls until the end of the months but he is busy cleaning up the brush on the issues of polling bias, undecideds, bounces and Citizens United.
++He suggests that with such intense voter polarization, the undecided is a whopping 2%.
++He also laments the Pew finding that the response rate on polling is now only 9%, a dramatic fall-off from 2009.
++He believes the Romney bounce when everything is said and done will be about 1%.
++He believes the Citizens United case will have much more effect on congressional races where money has real leverage.
++While concerned about Voter ID laws for the future participation of citizens in a democracy, he thinks they will play a marginal role in this year's presidential election because states like Pennsylvania are out of play anyway.
++Sam Wang also dealt with the issue of Rasmussen type polling, the complaint that a pollster is perpetually "biased". Nate Silver and he deal with aggregate polling so this eliminates political leans.
++Over at Crystal Ball, Larry Sabato reminds everyone that McCain's convention bounce didn't come until 4 days afterwards propelling him to his highest level during the campaign. Sabato remarks how rare it is for party conventions to be back to back and this might mute a traditional bounce.
++In Iowa yesterday, President Obama managed to keep the Clint Eastwood image alive by saying what a big fan he is of Clint Eastwood.
++And the Sunday news shows were as blah as usual. David Axelrod managed to hit home some points on how horrible the GOP Convention was. Unfortunately, that assessment is true no matter what your politics are. The whole Convention stepped on Romney's message--whatever that is--and was a mishmash of 2016 contenders with terrible stagecraft which raises questions about the basic competence of the Romney team.
++He suggests that with such intense voter polarization, the undecided is a whopping 2%.
++He also laments the Pew finding that the response rate on polling is now only 9%, a dramatic fall-off from 2009.
++He believes the Romney bounce when everything is said and done will be about 1%.
++He believes the Citizens United case will have much more effect on congressional races where money has real leverage.
++While concerned about Voter ID laws for the future participation of citizens in a democracy, he thinks they will play a marginal role in this year's presidential election because states like Pennsylvania are out of play anyway.
++Sam Wang also dealt with the issue of Rasmussen type polling, the complaint that a pollster is perpetually "biased". Nate Silver and he deal with aggregate polling so this eliminates political leans.
++Over at Crystal Ball, Larry Sabato reminds everyone that McCain's convention bounce didn't come until 4 days afterwards propelling him to his highest level during the campaign. Sabato remarks how rare it is for party conventions to be back to back and this might mute a traditional bounce.
++In Iowa yesterday, President Obama managed to keep the Clint Eastwood image alive by saying what a big fan he is of Clint Eastwood.
++And the Sunday news shows were as blah as usual. David Axelrod managed to hit home some points on how horrible the GOP Convention was. Unfortunately, that assessment is true no matter what your politics are. The whole Convention stepped on Romney's message--whatever that is--and was a mishmash of 2016 contenders with terrible stagecraft which raises questions about the basic competence of the Romney team.
Saturday, September 1, 2012
The Dead Cat Bounce
++If you haven't, watch the episodes of John Stewart and Stephen Colbert on "The Old Man and the Chair" as the Clint Eastwood frolics continue. One wag said that Eastwood was going to the DNC and debate an empty suit.
++Willard Romney was greeted by a women who had lost her home to Hurricane Isaac and she asked him for help and he said--read this slowly--"Go home and call 211." A woman who had her house destroyed is told to go "home" and place a phone call. Oh, forget it.
++Bill Kristol expressed dismay that Romney never expressed any support for the men and women serving overseas. Huffington Post printed a story that Romney was the first Republican nominee who had not mentioned war since 1952. So what is the Right's response--send me a Daily Caller piece that soldiers were silent during President Obama's speech at Fort Bliss. I guess they must have been mesmerized because you can catch the ecstatic response to Obama afterward on any website. The military swarmed him.
++We are in day three of the post-Romney speech news cycle. This morning the Washington Post decided to give page 1 to an analysis of how the Eastwood speech happened and so did the New York Times. The Post also write about how the "insular President breaks out of his bubble by campaigning around the country"--short for he doesn't invite us to the White House for dinner.
++Clint Eastwood has a new movie out on the 21st--think his appearance had anything to do with its promotion? But he has sucked the air out of the room.
++Stephen Schmidt, McCain's old campaign manager, said that Republicans were looking for a "bounce" out of the convention that showed Romney with a lead above the margin of error. That would assure Republicans that Romney had a chance.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama ahead 44-43. Romney in the previous days picked up 3 its but seems to be giving back. Gallup has Obama 47-46. Rasmussen has Romney up by 3. In short,the dead cat bounce. We should know by Monday but then any bounce should get wiped out by the DNC next week. Even Nate Silver, since my midnight post, has Obama inching up some more.
++Sam Wang at Princeton is modelling a Black Swan event--something so unpredictable that it would change all calculations. His event is the possibility that Bibi Netanyahu will attack Iran and how that might change the dynamics of the race. When you have time to do that, you really must think the next month is pretty set.
++Anyone catch Obama in Des Moines, Iowa. Huge crowd. He said you could have watched the RNC on a black-and-white television for all its old ideas. Obama is to build his way through rallies to Charlotte, North Carolina.
++Did anyone get the fact that George Romney, Mitt's father, was a war refugee in his speech. Was that a throwback like trying to imply that Mitt was Dondi's son?
++The Mormons came out today and explained that Coke and Pepsi were OK to drink.
++Willard Romney was greeted by a women who had lost her home to Hurricane Isaac and she asked him for help and he said--read this slowly--"Go home and call 211." A woman who had her house destroyed is told to go "home" and place a phone call. Oh, forget it.
++Bill Kristol expressed dismay that Romney never expressed any support for the men and women serving overseas. Huffington Post printed a story that Romney was the first Republican nominee who had not mentioned war since 1952. So what is the Right's response--send me a Daily Caller piece that soldiers were silent during President Obama's speech at Fort Bliss. I guess they must have been mesmerized because you can catch the ecstatic response to Obama afterward on any website. The military swarmed him.
++We are in day three of the post-Romney speech news cycle. This morning the Washington Post decided to give page 1 to an analysis of how the Eastwood speech happened and so did the New York Times. The Post also write about how the "insular President breaks out of his bubble by campaigning around the country"--short for he doesn't invite us to the White House for dinner.
++Clint Eastwood has a new movie out on the 21st--think his appearance had anything to do with its promotion? But he has sucked the air out of the room.
++Stephen Schmidt, McCain's old campaign manager, said that Republicans were looking for a "bounce" out of the convention that showed Romney with a lead above the margin of error. That would assure Republicans that Romney had a chance.
++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama ahead 44-43. Romney in the previous days picked up 3 its but seems to be giving back. Gallup has Obama 47-46. Rasmussen has Romney up by 3. In short,the dead cat bounce. We should know by Monday but then any bounce should get wiped out by the DNC next week. Even Nate Silver, since my midnight post, has Obama inching up some more.
++Sam Wang at Princeton is modelling a Black Swan event--something so unpredictable that it would change all calculations. His event is the possibility that Bibi Netanyahu will attack Iran and how that might change the dynamics of the race. When you have time to do that, you really must think the next month is pretty set.
++Anyone catch Obama in Des Moines, Iowa. Huge crowd. He said you could have watched the RNC on a black-and-white television for all its old ideas. Obama is to build his way through rallies to Charlotte, North Carolina.
++Did anyone get the fact that George Romney, Mitt's father, was a war refugee in his speech. Was that a throwback like trying to imply that Mitt was Dondi's son?
++The Mormons came out today and explained that Coke and Pepsi were OK to drink.
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